Frozen. Stuck in place. Not moving. That pretty much describes sellers. But in 2024 there’s a flicker of hope as sellers have thawed out just a bit. I’ll explain what I mean below, and I suspect many markets around the country are experiencing a similar trend. Any thoughts?
UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
01/31/24 Joel Wright & Mike Gobbi Event 9am (on Zoom here)
02/01/24 Gateway Event (private)
2/09/24 PCAR WCR Event (11:30am-1pm (more details))
2/13/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting 9am
2/21/24 Matt the Mortgage Guy YouTube Live
3/11/24 Yolo Association of Realtors (YAR only)
3/21/24 2024 Market Update for Brent Gove Team (big event free)
3/26/24 Orangevale MLS meeting 9am
3/27/24 SAFE Credit Union Lunch & Learn (TBA)
4/11/24 Lindsay Carlisle Event (private)
4/25/24 HomeSmart iCare Realty (details TBA)
5/9/24 Empire Home Loans (details TBA)
6/11/24 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting 8:30am
6/13/24 Sacramento Realtist Association (details TBA)
MORE NEW LISTINGS IN JANUARY 2024:
A few days ago, we officially surpassed the number of new listings in January from one year ago in Sacramento. By the end of the month, we should have about 10-15% more new listings compared to January 2023. Granted, the number of new listings today is still anemic, but more is the direction we want to go. So, while this is statistically minor, it feels like really positive news. Check out a reel I did on Instagram to explain this.
“MORE IN 2024” IS THE THEME:
In my 2024 outlook, one thing I mentioned is we aren’t going to be anywhere close to normal for the number of sales or new listings, but the hope is to see more. Well, January showed us more new listings, more pendings, and probably more sales (the verdict is still out on sales, but I’m pretty sure we’ll beat January 2023 in the region).
BRO, SELLERS ARE NOT FLOODING THE MARKET:
When sharing about more new listings, some people think sellers are flooding the market, but that’s not the vibe. If it was, I’d say so. This image is a helpful way to think about the trend. Remember, having more doesn’t automatically mean a flood. I find a similar dynamic with the narrative on bank-owned sales today. There are definitely more this year, but it’s a tiny amount below 1% of all sales locally. Nonetheless, sometimes people see more and create a narrative about a flood of foreclosures.
CELEBRATING A SECOND-PLACE TROPHY
Okay, some real talk. Last January was the worst January in decades for the number of new listings, and this January is going to be the second worst. Look, I’m not trying to sound negative, but I want to give context to what I mean by more new listings this year. Ultimately, sellers are still frozen, but they’ve thawed out slightly from 2023 levels. The green bars help show the pre-2020 normal, and we’re nowhere close (still about 38% or so below that level).
BUT WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH BUYERS?
I’m glad you asked. We’ve actually seen more pending contracts in January 2024 compared to January 2023, so we don’t have a situation with vastly more supply compared to demand. This is something we can watch closely over the spring, but right now we don’t have a lopsided market where supply is far outweighing demand locally.
HELLO REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS:
Friends, this is really good news because it’s volume that pays the bills in real estate. I realize this isn’t a huge change, but more is absolutely the direction we want to go. This is also good for buyers and sellers because it’s healthy in the housing market when more people are participating.
THIS IS NOT ABOUT FEAR, BUT LIFESTYLE
Someone told me sellers are afraid of future price declines, so they’re listing their homes. Look, that’s fine if true, but I disagree. The word fear doesn’t typify the bulk of sellers I’m talking to right now. I find sellers today are mostly listing for lifestyle reasons such as inheriting a property, moving out of state, job transfer, moving up, moving down, divorce, etc… Fear is not the overarching theme or motivator. If it was, I’d be the first to say so.
An Instagram reel I made:
View this post on Instagram
WE NEED TIME TO SEE THE TREND:
This looks like a trend, but let’s see what happens in February and throughout the spring. In other words, I think it’s premature to say, “Sellers have thawed out completely, and we’re only going to see an increase from here on out.” Hopefully that’s the case. Now let’s see what the market does.
Thanks for being here.
Questions: What are you hearing from sellers right now? And what are you hearing from buyers? What stands out to you above?
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