trend graphs

Street names & hot stats with an asterisk

November 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 17 Comments

I have two things on my mind. Street names and super “hot” market stats. Then for those interested I’ve include my big monthly market update below.

Two things:

1) Street Names: Just for fun, could a street name actually affect value? I mean, if it was really off-color, would buyers pay less because of a name? In my mind it seems iffy because I’ve never seen a name that would actually deter buyers. Yet the middle schooler in me can think of some examples that might work… Anyway, after a conversation on Twitter, here are some of the more random street names in Sacramento. What funny or odd street names have you seen?

2) Hot stats with an asterisk: Last year we experienced a REALLY dull market in many places across the country. If you remember mortgage rates ticked up and it was as if a dark cloud was looming over the housing market. I’m bringing this up because stats last year were depressed. Thus when comparing last year to more glowing or normal numbers today it can make recent price figures look really sexy. My advice? Over these next few months be aware of more sensational data due to lackluster stats from last year. Otherwise if we’re not careful we might end up thinking the market is much hotter than it actually is.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

Summary: The numbers are “hot” this month. Prices are up to a greater extent than they’ve been most of the year, inventory is down, pendings are strong, and sales volume has been up too. Part of the reason why the numbers are so stellar is because last year’s numbers were dull, but some of the hotness stems from low mortgage rates a few months back too. In other words, strong pendings from the summer finally closed in October.

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

It’s been a normal fall so far
FHA buyers have been hungry
Zillow bought their first house
Anemic housing supply
Celebrity flippers are coming
Rent control doesn’t apply to every property
Market crash vs recession
Strong million dollar market
Slowing price momentum
Overpricing is still an issue

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal fall so far: Not all fall seasons are created equal. What I mean is some falls are duller than others, and this year so far has seemed to be a stronger season. Granted, prices are still softening like we’d expect, but it’s nothing like the painfully dull fall we had last year when some thought the market was about to take a big turn.

Hungry first-time buyers: Last month FHA was 21% of the market in Sacramento County. It’s been over two years since we’ve seen a month with 21% of the market go FHA. For years FHA has been declining because there are conventional products that can readily compete, but so far in 2019 FHA is up 5.6% in Sacramento County.

Zillow’s first purchase in Sacramento: About a month ago Zillow entered the Sacramento market and they just closed on their first house. It was a $560,000 private sale in Carmichael. On a related note, a piece came out in Forbes this week about iBuyer models paying close to market value. Look, we need to remember the credits these companies are getting from owners are padded into the purchase price. So instead of reducing the price to account for repairs, iBuyer tech companies are keeping the price higher and getting a credit for repairs within the purchase price. This is a huge advantage because it makes it look like the price is even closer to fair market value.

Anemic housing supply: Last week the big news was sellers are spending an average of 13 years in their homes instead of 8 years. As a result we’re seeing fewer homes hit the market. This is surely in part a consequence of eight years of historically low mortgage rates. We now have millions of owners with less incentive to list because they’re sitting on a low rate with equity.

Celebrity flippers are coming on strong: A few weeks ago I couldn’t sleep and I snapped this image while watching television at 4am. This flipping program aired simultaneously on four major networks. My advice? Be careful. We all want financial freedom, but you can spend thousands of dollars on these seminars to obtain “secret” flipping knowledge you can probably get for free.

Rent control does not apply to single family homes in Sacramento: I have an exhaustive Q&A post on rent control coming soon, but for now I wanted to mention something important. Rent control in the City of Sacramento only applies to properties within city limits with two units or more that were built prior to 1995. It does NOT apply to single family homes. However, if an investor owns ten or more properties under an LLC (and a couple other scenarios), rent control can apply. Keep in mind California has some differences between Sacramento rent control. Here’s an overview of rent control in California with a video link to a lawyer talking through rent control dynamics.

Ready for the market to crash because of a recession: Some prospective buyers are waiting for a recession in hopes of the market crashing, but real estate doesn’t always crumble when a recession happens. In fact, sometimes prices even rise. Here’s a video I made to talk through the past five recessions in Sacramento. This is a huge topic right now.

Strong million dollar market stats: The million dollar market has been growing. We really are in a market of outliers where we’re seeing some of the highest prices ever (Sellers, don’t overprice because of this). For reference, the top three sales ever in East Sacramento have all sold this year.

Slowing price momentum: Overall price growth has slowed down from years ago. This isn’t a shocker because I’ve been beating this point to death for the past couple years at least. What I mean is prices are moving forward still, but it’s not the type of rapid growth we saw in early 2013.

The plague of overpricing: Sellers these days are fixated on glowing stats and they’re often thinking the market is more competitive than it actually is. It’s like sellers are saying, “The market is SO hot and I’m going to get tons of offers,” but then buyers are like, “OK, boomer” (sorry, had to fit that in). Seriously though, overpricing is an enormous problem for sellers among all ages, price ranges, and locations. My advice? Price according to similar homes that are actually getting into contract. Remember, the market in later November and December is usually the slowest time of year. If you’re priced right you’ll likely get one or two offers, but if you’re priced too high you’ll likely get zero.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FIVE THINGS TO TALK ABOUT:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: Price growth has been slowing. This isn’t my idea or agenda. It’s what stats are telling us. This market is still very competitive when priced correctly, but it’s not a market with hefty price appreciation.

NOTE: Two of the categories above are showing slightly more price growth in 2019 compared to last year. But remember, when looking at data for October or the past 90 days, we have to consider how dull the market was last year.

2) PRICE CYCLES: Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. What do you notice?

3) LAST YEAR vs THIS YEAR: All year long most price metrics have been up about 2-4% each month compared to last year, but this month they were a little stronger. This is likely due to stats sagging last year during a really dull 2018 fall season. Additionally, mortgage rates went down a few months ago and we’re likely seeing some of the effect of that.

4) VOLUME SLUMP: We’ve been having a definitive sales volume slump since mid-2018, but lately volume has been stronger. In other words, sales volume has been down fifteen out of the past eighteen months. But sales volume has been up for three out of the past four months. This is something to keep on the radar. It’s not a volume meltdown, but it’s definitely been a slower year.

5) PRICES ARE SOFTENING FOR THE FALL: The market generally slowed in October, which is expected for the time of year.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month. Also, if you’re in Placer, be careful about only looking to Placer data because limited sales can mean numbers jump around quite a bit from month to month.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What’s the wildest street name you’ve seen before? What market trend above stands out to you the most? Anything to add?

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Does the market really change every seven years?

October 22, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

The market changes every seven years. And now it’s ready to take a big turn. Have you heard that? Is there really such a thing as a “seven-year rule”? Is it legitimate? Let’s talk about it.

A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER

1) Behavior: The market doesn’t have to behave a certain way every seven years. Bottom line. Case-in-point: We’ve had almost eight years of price growth in Sacramento in the current price cycle.

2) There is a cycle: Sometimes we only hear about the market being “hot”, but there really is a rhythm over years where prices go up and down. In many locations the market tends to change every decade or so, so I get why people believe in the seven-year rule. But keep in mind some markets are more flat over time rather than super cyclical like California (big point).

3) Talking in a range: I’m not a huge fan of being dogmatic about seven years, so I prefer to hear things like, “The market tends to change every 7-10 years or so.” Of course this type of statement might be totally off in some areas of the country, but in my market I get it when people say this because of historical data.

Now to some new images…

PRICE CYCLE IMAGES: I used the Freddie Mac Price Index to tell the story of the market over four decades. I like this price metric because it goes back 40 years. I’d love to use MLS instead, but that only goes back 20 years. Anyone have a different metric suggestion?

How long were the past few UP cycles before the market turned?

CALIFORNIA
1980s: 7.9 years
1990s: 10 years
Current: 7.5 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s: 7.1 years
1990s: 8.6 years
Current: 7.7 years

How long did the past few DOWN cycles last?

CALIFORNIA
1980s: 9 months
1990s: 5.5 years
2000s: 5.6 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s: 17 months
1990s: 5.9 years
2000s: 5.9 years

NOTE: It’s tempting to try to predict this next cycle based on the past few, but be really careful with that. There is no rule that says the market always has to behave the same.

Bonus (Adjusted for Inflation): I adjusted for inflation here to help compare dollar amounts over decades (and to satisfy econ / grad student friends who prod me about this).

OTHER CYCLE CHARTS: I have other price cycle charts based on MLS data over the past 20 years. I have charts for Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County. See my big monthly market update (scroll to “price cycles”).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

MAKE THIS GRAPH FOR YOUR MARKET?

Do you want to know how to make a price cycle graph? I made a template to help you do this. Download my template and follow the instructions in the Excel file. If you make something, please tag me online or email me. I’d love to see what your market looks like. Here’s a video tutorial. Here are a few more tutorials also.

Questions: What stands out to you in the images above? Any other thoughts about price cycles?

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When sellers care too much about the Zestimate

October 16, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

A seller’s Zestimate is really low and he’s pretty worried about it. It might seem a bit vain to care so much, but the seller is concerned since he’s heard buyers might offer less on his home if Zillow’s estimate is too low. Is that legit? Let’s talk about it. Then for those interested I have a huge market update below.

Three things about sellers caring too much about Zillow:

1) Some buyers need education: Some buyers do get hung up on Zillow, but these buyers are very likely the minority. Frankly, a buyer putting more weight on Zillow than actual comps or neighborhood trends is simply coming to the market as misinformed.

2) Obsession means more: If a home really is worth more than a Zestimate, buyers will recognize that and offer accordingly. In other words, the vast bulk of buyers won’t be getting stuck on a lower Zestimate when they know value is there. Will some? Maybe. But let’s remember the obsessive nature of buyers today. They scour all homes as soon as they hit the market, they’re in tune with every price reduction, and they often get a sense for what is both overpriced and underpriced in a neighborhood because they’re paying such close attention. Thus to think a buyer in today’s big data climate would forget about all the hours of obsessive research and get stuck on a Zestimate is out of sync with how buyers are approaching the market today.

3) Matching the list price: The irony is the Zestimate might actually end up chasing the list price when the home does come to the market. This doesn’t always happen, but there are numerous examples online of a Zestimate being really low only to be changed within days of the listing to match whatever the list price ends up being. Here’s a lopsided example I noticed with a Chip & Jo house and here’s a recent example from Jim the Realtor in San Diego.

NOTE: I wrote about Zillow two weeks in a row. It won’t be three next week.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

If I had to boil down the market to a few phrases I’d say fairly normal stats, slumping sales volume, modest price growth, overpricing sellers, and some hesitancy among buyers. Ultimately stats are showing about what we’d expect for this time of year, which is why I’m saying the market feels mostly normal. This doesn’t mean there aren’t red flags of course.

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Stats feel mostly normal
Not every fall season is the same
Rent control hasn’t stopped the market
Year-over-year price growth is modest
Sacramento is busting landlords for MJ
Distressed sales hardly exist
Volume was up this past month (but it was still a low month)
We’re about to have a new soccer stadium

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Prices likely peaked for the season: Prices have been flattening or softening in most areas in the region. This doesn’t mean the market is dull or not competitive. It simply means prices are softening and we’re not surprised because that normally happens around this time. For reference, the median price often dips about 5% or so during the fall.

PG&E shutting off power: If you didn’t know, PG&E shut off power to more than 700,000 customers for a couple days last week in light of a perceived risk of fire. I’ve been asked if this is going to affect the real estate market. Here’s my take. If this became a frequent issue it’s hard to imagine buyers not considering it when making offers and choosing where to live. If this is an isolated incident though, it’s likely to have no real impact. Of course one other layer here is we could see buyers expecting or appreciating generators being present.

Not all falls are equal: It’s good to remember not all fall seasons are created equal. What I mean is sometimes the fall season will feel pretty dull with larger price cuts and other times the market just feels a little more flat. The verdict is still out on what this coming fall season will look like exactly, but there is no mistaking we are in the midst it now.

The last run on the market before Thanksgiving: There is typically a last run on the market about this time of year. Now that everyone is settled in from vacations and the kids are in school, we usually see a last move to buy before the holidays arrive. This is exactly why there is almost always an uptick in sales volume in December. It’s not that there are more homes that actually sell in December. It’s just there are a higher number of pendings from October and November that end up closing in December.

Rent control: The market hasn’t stopped because of rent control in the City of Sacramento. I wanted to mention this because sometimes we lose sight of seeing the market in the midst of strong feelings and sensational headlines. When looking at 2-4 unit sales there were slightly more this September compared to last year, and pendings are fairly normal for the time being. This doesn’t mean everything is going to be peachy. I’m not saying that at all. I only want to emphasize the market is still moving and over time we’ll understand how it’s all going to play out. By the way, I’ll be doing a rent control Q&A soon.

Modest price growth: Last month we saw most price metrics were up about 2-4% compared to the same month last year in 2018. This is much more subdued growth compared to previous years.

Busting landlords for illegal marijuana grows: The City of Sacramento has been busting landlords for tenants growing cannabis over the legal limit (six plants). This is a huge deal and something to watch because some landlords have been getting excessive fines (we’re talking hundreds of thousands of dollars). This story is seeming to fly under the radar, but there are huge implications for property rights and investing in Sacramento and beyond. The silver lining for many landlords though is the courts have seemed to shoot down the city’s tactics lately.

Meth houses & El Camino: If you’re a Breaking Bad fan you probably already watched El Camino. It only seemed fitting to share the DEA’s published list of known drug labs. Unfortunately the list has not been updated in years, but it’s better than nothing. Here’s a study also on the impact of drug labs on surrounding homes (PDF).

Distressed sales: Ten years ago distressed sales dominated the market and were about 80% of all sales in the region, but now they’re hardly even 1% of sales.

Slumping sales volume: It’s been a lower year of sales volume as we’re down about 7% compared to last year. I know that doesn’t sound like much, but it does translate to about 2,000 less sales. I wouldn’t call this a market meltdown, but we’ve definitely seen a slowdown since sales volume has been lower 15 out of the past 17 months in the Sacramento region. This is still on the lower side of normal, but it’s something to watch over time to understand exactly what it means.

Hesitancy: Buyers are picky about getting into contract as well as staying in contract. On top of that some buyers are feeling hesitant. They wonder if we’re near the peak for this cycle, so they feel less confident about playing the game.

New soccer stadium: We’re finally getting an MLS soccer team in Sacramento after years of drama. Someone asked me if this will affect the market. In short, the stadium is only one piece of the pie in the entire Railyards development. There will be 6,000 to 10,000 housing units and millions of square feet of commercial space including a Kaiser campus. So buyers focus on the entire package including the stadium rather than saying, “Yo, I’m only buying because of the stadium.” Oh, and buyers located multiple miles away are very unlikely to look at fresh neighborhood listings now and say, “Dude, I’m totally going to pay more because there’s a soccer stadium ten to twenty minutes away.”

Soccer KCRA interview: By the way, I did an interview with Channel 3 yesterday about the new soccer stadium.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FIVE THINGS TO TALK ABOUT:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market has continued to show price growth, but it’s been a more modest rate of growth. This is why I’m saying the market is slowing. Let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate.

2) PRICE CYCLES: Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. What do you notice?

3) LAST YEAR vs THIS YEAR: Last year the market felt dark and many wondered if it was about to take a turn downward. That hasn’t been the vibe so far this year though. Most price metrics are up 2-4% or so this year. I’m not saying the market is perfectly healthy, but it feels profoundly different this year so far. It’s amazing what happens when mortgage rates slide down and help the market feel more normal….

4) VOLUME SLUMP: Volume was actually higher in September compared to last year at the same time, but it was still a pretty low September. In fact, in Sacramento County it was the second lowest September over the past 11 years. It’s important to remember last year was painfully dull, so it’s not all that hard to have a higher sales volume this year, right? The bigger story is sales volume is down in the region by about 7% over the past year. Moreover, volume has been down in the region for 15 out of the last 17 months. This is definitely something to keep on the radar. In my mind this is one of the most important trends to watch because it tells us whether buyers have their foot on the gas or brakes.

5) PRICES ARE SOFTENING FOR THE FALL: The market generally slowed in September in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat (even though they’re up from last year). This is normal for the time of year.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 90+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? Any interesting trends you’re watching? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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Peaking prices & rosy real estate narratives

September 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

People tend to freak out when prices slow down. What’s going on? Is the market crashing? But every year around this time we start to see the market soften. Let’s talk about this, and then for those interested I have a big market update.

1) Slowing is normal: Prices have likely crested for the season in many areas of the country. What I mean there’s a good chance we’ve more or less seen the highest prices we’re going to see for 2019 as the market is starting to show its descent from the high-altitude spring season. This happens EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. It doesn’t mean it’s not competitive either. It just means it starts to take longer to sell, the number of sales begins to shrink, and prices tend to taper.

2) The rosy real estate narrative: It can be a struggle for many people when hearing the market is slowing. It’s like we are only allowed to talk about real estate in glowing terms and our talking points must fit into a rosy narrative. So when there’s any hint of news that sounds even slightly negative, it feels like something is wrong. What do you mean prices aren’t going up? Wait, they’re softening? Does that mean the market is about to turn? Remember, just as it’s not always sunny outside, real estate isn’t always burning hot either.

3) The mistake of misinterpreting slowness: On the other side of the coin we tend to see lots of doom and gloom conversations around this time of year as the market softens. My advice? Know what is normal for the fall season so you can assess whether it’s a normal seasonal slowing or something more. In other words, let the stats speak to you and inform your real estate narrative. Otherwise you may be swayed by sensational headlines or get sucked into a real estate culture that sometimes struggles when things aren’t ultra-positive.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. If I had to sum up the market I’d say things have felt a little more normal lately. Granted, low mortgage rates are like a steroid helping the market feel normal, but nonetheless stats have been about what we’d expect for this time of year – which is unlike the dark season we experienced last year at the same time.

DOWNLOAD 80+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Stats feel mostly normal
California will now have rent control
Year-over-year price growth is stronger
Don’t be like Michael Jordan
Volume was down slightly in August
Listings are seriously anemic
Pendings are strong right now
Sales volume is down 9% this year
The market is slowing for the season

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal and cresting prices: We’re seeing about what we’d expect to see right now with prices starting to soften. I’d say prices have likely crested for the season. It’s possible we could see some price metrics bounce up slightly due to low mortgage rates, but that usually doesn’t happen beyond August much. Besides, any sales from September really reflect older pendings from July and August anyway.

Rent control: Statewide rent control in California was just passed by the legislature. There is going to be a learning curve for the real estate community on how to deal with this from a value perspective too. We may need years to really understand the effect on the housing market. Keep in mind this only applies to 2-unit+ properties built prior to 1995 (it does not apply to single family homes). Also, this doesn’t mean rents won’t increase either because landlords can legally raise rents 5% plus inflation each year.

14th bubble anniversary: The real estate “bubble” popped fourteen years ago in Sacramento in August 2005. In other parts of the country the market started to turn in 2007, but we started to tank in 2005. So happy anniversary, I guess.

Michael Jordan’s house: In 2012 Michael Jordan’s house was put on the market for $29 million and after seven years it still hasn’t sold. It’s now listed for about $15M. This just goes to show buyers aren’t willing to pay any price – even if the owner is famous. This is a great object lesson for sellers today who are prone to think they can command whatever price they want since inventory is low. Nope. Buyers are extremely sensitive to paying the right price and they’re more informed than ever. If you want to sell you need to price it right. Bottom line.

Slowing doesn’t mean it’s cold: The market isn’t slow, but it’s starting to show signs of slowing for the season as it’s taking longer to sell, most price metrics declined from July to August, and sales volume looks to be starting to slough for the year as it normally does. This doesn’t mean the market is cold though. Not at all. It’s just not as hot as it was during the spring. Over the next month I’d expect the market to heat up a bit though since kids are back in school and vacations are done. There is usually a last run on the market before the holidays arrive.

Almost 8 years of price increases: In the current real estate price cycle we’ve had about eight years of price growth so far. When I say eight, some people correct me with seven, but that’s not accurate if you count every year since 2012. I also have a chart like this for Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County in my monthly download.

Stronger price growth: Prices are up about 4-5% from last year, which is a change from a more subtle 2-3% we’ve been seeing for most of the year. What’s going on? Part of the growth could stem from low mortgage rates fueling buyers to play the game, but let’s remember too last year was a dull time in the market, which means it’s going to be easier on paper this year to see glowing stats (more on that below). Let’s not make too much of one month of data.

Really sparse listings lately: The number of listings has been noticeably down. I mean, we’re seeing multiple hundreds fewer per month these days. Technically housing inventory as a metric is on the lower side of normal these days, but there have been fewer listings hitting the market (remember, inventory as a metric measures the relationship between listings and sales rather than the number of actual listings). I’ve been thinking about what’s going on here for a number of months and I’ll admit I don’t have it all figured out. Part of it of course is pendings have been stronger, which naturally means there’s fewer available listings. And maybe some would-be sellers refinanced into a lower rate rather than selling. I don’t think this is the byproduct of the iBuyer model with so many listings selling privately instead of coming to the market, but some properties certainly sold this way. Mostly I would guess this is related to sellers feeling uncertain about the market. Just as buyers had their moment last year where they backed off the market a bit, maybe sellers are feeling it’s their turn? There could be other reasons. This is something I’ll keep watching to understand over time. I’d love to hear your take here.

Warning about glowing stats ahead: Hey stat nerds, this is important. Over the next few months if we have fairly normal numbers they could end up looking glorious since last year the market was in a slump. If you remember, when mortgage rates shot up in 2018 buyers began to put their foot on the brakes and it felt like there was a dark cloud looming for about six months. Anyway, when you’re pulling stats over these next two quarters, just remember the numbers might technically look glowing this year compared with last year. My advice? Take stats with a grain of salt and compare multiple years of data rather than give laser focus to last year.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market continues to show price growth, but the rate of change is slowing. This sounds offensive to some because the narrative in real estate is often that the market is always blazing hot. But let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick at about 1-3%, but this past month the stats look a bit sexier. Part of this could be due to lower mortgage rates, but some of it could be due to the market showing weakness last year (which helps pad today’s stats).

3) VOLUME SLUMP: Volume was lower last month compared to August 2018, but not by much. The bigger story though is volume is down in the region by 9% over the past year. Moreover, volume has been down in the region for 14 out of the last 15 months. Overall despite a lower year of volume, it’s still not outside of a normal low range (see 2014 and 2015).

4) PRICES SOFTENED IN AUGUST: The market generally slowed in August in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat (even though they’re up from last year). This is fairly normal for the time of year, and sometimes we see prices bounce up and down as summer comes to a close. Stay tuned. Let’s keep watching.