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The housing market will get worse before it gets better

November 29, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 14 Comments

It’ll get worse before it gets better. That’s pretty much true in lots of ways in life. Going through the teenage years, recovering from injury, remodeling a kitchen… and enduring a housing downturn. Today I have a few things to share, and I hope this will be helpful (especially #3 as you look to 2023).

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
12/5/22 SAFE Credit Union market update on Zoom (register here (free))
1/18/23 WCR Market Update in Cameron Park (register here)
1/19/23 Big market update at SAR on Zoom (details TBD)
1/23/23 Residential RoundUP on Zoom (register here (free))
5/22/23 Yolo YPN (details TBD)

Three quick things:

1) THE MARKET ISN’T THE SAME EVERYWHERE

The housing market is NOT the same in every part of the country, or even every sliver of the local market. Here are two images from John Burns Real Estate Consulting to show what I mean. Read their original post here.

Does anything surprise you on the list? It’s not a shocker that Sacramento made the falling list along with some of the usual suspects we’ve been reading about in media stories.

DIPPING PRICES IN SACRAMENTO

Here’s a look at the preliminary median price for November in the Sacramento region. I’ll solidify this visual in a week when we have more November stats collected. But do you see how the median price this year (black line) is officially below last year (orange line)? As I mentioned a few weeks back, 40% of pandemic price gains have been wiped away over the past six months. That’s not always easy to digest, but it is exactly what sellers need to hear right now. And again, the median is not a perfect metric as it doesn’t rigidly translate to every price range and location.

2) GETTING WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER

Back to my blog title. It’ll get worse before it gets better. Someone saw this visual during a presentation last month and had an epiphany that closed sales volume got really ugly for a couple of years during the previous housing crash, but volume eventually returned to the market. I think the takeaway for this person was to hold on tightly right now, and hope for eventual recovery too. Of course, there isn’t any template for how a housing market needs to correct, so we don’t want to think of 2007 as the formula. But it does make sense to see some volume vanish for a season until the housing market starts to heal by becoming more affordable. It’s impossible to say how long volume will be subdued ahead, but we’ll get more buyers back as affordability increases and market confidence grows.

Worst November in Two Decades: I know this sounds super sensational, but it’s what the stats show. As of now it looks like we’re going to have the worst November in over two decades in the Sacramento region. It’s possible we could slightly surpass 2007 if an unexpected number of sales close over the next week, but November volume looks like it’ll be down about 43% from the pre-pandemic average, and down 49% from last year (Sacramento County is 46% and 50%). No matter how we look at it, nearly half the market is missing. Or we could say half the market is happening. Both trends are accurate.

November Rain: On a side note, all this talk of change reminds me of a classic Guns ‘N Roses song, November Rain.

Nothin’ lasts foreverAnd we both know hearts can changeAnd it’s hard to hold a candleIn the cold November rain

3) EXPECT A SPRING VOLUME UPTICK IN 2023

This might be helpful as you plan ahead for the spring market. It’s important to note that seasonal volume changes can still exist even in a downward market. Check out the visual below where the dark bars represent sales from January to June each year. Even in 2007, one of the worst years on record, we still saw a spring seasonal uptick in volume. This shows it’s really difficult to erase the seasonal trend in real estate – even when prices are plummeting. Granted, we don’t technically know what is ahead for the market, so if rates spike unexpectedly, all bets are off. For now, I would expect to see some seasonality ahead. This makes sense in light of stories from the trenches too where I’m hearing buyers waiting for better inventory in the spring, and some sellers will wait to list in the new year instead of December.

I hope this was helpful.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

FREE WEBINAR ON DECEMBER 5TH:

I’m doing a deep dive into the Sacramento market on December 5th at 12pm. There is so much to talk about, and I’ll have about an hour. Thanks to SAFE Credit Union for making this FREE EVENT happen. Register here.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What did I miss?

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The housing market is feeling the pain of higher rates

November 1, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 28 Comments

The housing market is really starting to feel the pain of higher mortgage rates. Today I’d like to unpack some fresh October stats to show what I mean. I also have some thoughts about the spring season when prices are dropping. Whether you’re local or not, I hope this is helpful.

This post is designed to skim quickly or digest slowly.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
11/4/22 Market update in Roseville (on Zoom now)
11/15/22 Sacramento Bee Q&A at 12pm (RSVP here)
11/17/22 Fair Housing Lunch & Learn (RSVP here)
12/5/22 SAFE Credit Union market update on Zoom (register here (free))
1/18/23 WCR Market Update in Cameron Park (details TBD)
1/19/23 Big market update at SAR on Zoom (details TBD)
1/23/23 Residential RoundUP (register here (free))

A 40% DROP IN VOLUME IS A SYMPTOM OF STRUGGLE

We’re seeing lots of markets around the country with dropping sales volume, which is the byproduct of a quick change in affordability due to rate increases. In Sacramento, volume took a beating last month. We still need another week before solidifying numbers, but we’re going to be down about 40% or so from last year. Keep in mind most sales in October got into contract in September when rates were at 6%, so being down 40% doesn’t even reflect 7% rates yet.

NOVEMBER VOLUME WILL LIKELY BE WORSE

In October, pending contract volume locally has been down between 40% to 50% depending on the week according to Redfin and Trendgraphix. This means November closed sales volume will presumably take a bigger hit than October, which underscores rates at seven percent are taking more demand out of the market (thanks Captain Obvious).

NOT ABOUT DOOM

By the way, I’m not writing as a doom and gloom guy. This is all about perspective formed by stats. It might not be easy for some to hear, but I’m only interested in talking about the market that actually exists. I have zero interest in promoting a rosy narrative too.

NOT EASY FOR SELLERS TO ADJUST

Prices have changed so quickly that it’s been tough for sellers to adapt. I’ve had a few conversations lately with sellers feeling remorse for not accepting an offer in the spring or early summer. One seller now has an offer about $60,000 lower than an offer made a few months back. That’s not easy to swallow, but it’s the reality upon us. I’m not saying prices are down exactly $60,000 everywhere either, but there has been a notable drop (more on that soon).

PRICES FLIRTING WITH LAST YEAR

As I talked about a few weeks ago, it looks like the median is about to dip below last year. So far in Sacramento County the preliminary median price for October is $1,000 below last year at the same time. It’s honestly too early to pull the monthly median, so I’ll share a solidified version next week. We’ll see how the numbers change between now and next week.

By the way, here’s a thread with weekly price graphs (instead of monthly).

WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SPRING DURING A DECLINING MARKET?

Okay, now some quick thoughts about the spring when home prices are declining. I think lots of people are wondering what is ahead as 2023 begins. In short, not every spring market is the same, but when looking at declining years in the 1990s and 2000s, there are many years where prices ticked up for a bit or looked more level during the spring.

Seasonality doesn’t always disappear: The darker bars show the median price from January to June, and in 2006, 2007, and 2008 there was a flat to slightly up vibe for a few months before declines persisted after the early spring. Of course, this could be due to larger homes selling in the spring, but even if that’s the case, it shows price seasonality isn’t always dead during declining years. We’ll see what happens in 2023. It’s hard to predict this year because we’re in a unique situation with quick rate changes.

The 1990s: The spring price trend is a bit more hit and miss in the 90s as sometimes prices clearly declined during the spring (black bars), but in other cases like 1994 there was a much more pronounced seasonal uptick.

DON’T GET STUCK ON PRICES

I think the visuals above are interesting, but they’re not the end-all graphs because they only discuss the price trend. Like I always say, don’t get stuck on prices alone because sales volume sometimes tells a more compelling story. I guess it’s ironic that I’m only showing prices here, but that’s what I had time for today. I do have some volume images to push out soon, and those will give even more insight into seasonality during declining years.

Thanks for being here.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Questions: How are rates at 7% affecting buyers right now? What stands out to you about my stats above? What did I miss? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Are home prices declining? What are appraisers saying?

October 25, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 37 Comments

Home prices are the holy grail in real estate, and it almost seems sinful or off-limits to say they’re going down. But let’s be real. That’s what is happening right now locally and in some other portions of the country. Let’s talk about what this means as well as what’s going on in appraisal reports.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
11/4/22 Market update in Roseville (real estate pros only (details here))
11/15/22 Sacramento Bee Q&A at 12pm (RSVP here)
11/17/22 Fair Housing Lunch & Learn (RSVP here)
12/5/22 Safe Credit Union Lunch & Learn (details TBD)
1/18/23 WCR Market Update in Cameron Park (details TBD)
1/19/23 Big market update at SAR on Zoom (details TBD)
1/24/23 Market update with Joel & Mike (details TBD)

YES, THERE IS A BOX

If you didn’t know, there is a box on appraisal reports where appraisers can state property values are either increasing, stable, or declining. Here’s what the box looks like. I’ve been hearing about some appraisers checking the declining box lately and others not. It’s a mixed bag (rightly so).

THE MARKET ISN’T THE SAME EVERYWHERE

It’s really important to note the market is NOT the same in every location and price range across the country, so appraisers aren’t going to be checking the same box everywhere. Even in a local market, it’s possible different locations or property types are not experiencing the same trend. I mean, all ships tend to rise and fall with the tide, but we have to let the research do the talking instead of imposing a declining narrative on every portion of the market.

YES, THE MARKET IS DECLINING

In Sacramento, prices have clearly been declining as demand has changed sharply in recent months. In other words, buyers are hands-down paying less today than they did in previous months. We see this in lots of metrics I’ve been writing about for months, and even neighborhood graphs are finally starting to show a declining trend (it takes a bit for graphs to have enough data to show the trend). This is more than a modest seasonal dip as the median price is down about 10% right now since May. In a normal year we might see the median price down about 3-3.5% at this time of year. A few weeks ago I talked about the median price being very close to dipping below last year, and even Redfin is starting to show that for Sacramento (see this thread).

Example 1: Neighborhood Graphs

Example 2: County, City, & Regional Stats

BRO, THE MARKET IS JUST STABILIZING

To me the word “stabilization” is a bit rosy because price declines have been much more intense than usual. Stabilization or normalization would maybe resemble a more seasonal trend or a leveling off, but what we’ve experienced lately has been a sharp drop in buyer demand. Most counties are down in sales volume by about 25-30% over the past few months compared to recent years, so this has been a bigger shift in demand rather than a typical seasonal change.

BUT PRICES ARE STILL UP FROM LAST YEAR

Yeah, prices are technically up from last year when looking at September stats, but there is a clear declining trend happening right now too. It’s sort of like if I lost 70 pounds and then gained 20 back. I’m still down 50 pounds technically, but do you know what the real trend is? It’s me gaining weight lately. And just to be clear, I’m not sharing real stats from my body even though I have gained 20 this year. Haha. I’m just saying it’s a mistake to focus on year-over-year prices to the point of missing what is happening in front of us right now.

BUT WE NEED MORE DATA

How many months of data are needed before we can establish a trend? I’m not sure there is a specific answer that applies to all situations, but I would say having almost six months of slower data now is more than enough. I think we probably needed half or more of that to start seeing a clear trend. Even by June we knew volume was starting to take a 25%+ hit, so we knew there was a sharp change at hand. It just takes time for the trend to show up in actual prices to be able to make the call as to what is happening. It’s okay if you think we still need more data, but let me ask you this. What more do you need? I’d love to hear in the comments or an email (not interested in hate mail though).

Q&A HOUSING VIDEO I DID

I recorded a video with YouTuber Jeb Smith to talk about dynamics in today’s market. This was recorded about two weeks ago, and it’s all off the cuff (my favorite way to do things). Watch here or below.

THERE IS STILL COMPETITION

Prices are going down because affordability has taken such a beating lately. It’s that simple. In recent months mortgage rates have changed faster than they have in forty years, so it’s not a shocker to see a quick change with prices. Do you know what would be shocking? To not see a change. But remember, declining prices doesn’t mean there isn’t any competition. It’s a mistake to say all buyers have left the market because that’s statistically not true. Keep in mind about 36% of pendings over the past two weeks in the region had multiple offers per MLS stats. Also, while we’ve seen about 3,600 fewer sales happen since May of this year, there have been nearly 11,000 sales that have happened. In other words, declining prices doesn’t mean the market has stopped. Bottom line.

NOT LOCKED INTO ONE TREND FOR SIX YEARS

The trend is declining right now, but that doesn’t mean we’re automatically locked into this one trend from here on out. It also doesn’t mean we won’t see some spring seasonality ahead either. When the market drops in Sacramento, it’s not uncommon to see about five or six years of a downward trend, but I’d be careful about stating we’re locked into that. Maybe. Maybe not. Keep in mind it’s not a sharp plunge for an entire downward cycle either. Ultimately, the verdict is still out on the future since we are just at the beginning of change, but right now prices are dropping in light of such a huge hit to affordability lately. In a sense it feels like a game though where the Fed could manipulate things and change the trajectory of the market. So, if rates go down sharply, that could alter the dynamic. Some like Ivy Zelman predict it’s possible for the housing market to move faster now in light of access to real estate data like never before, but that’s also to be determined.

WE NEED 12 MONTHS OF DATA TO SAY IT’S DECLINING (FALSE)

Sometimes I hear appraisers say we need twelve months of data before calling something a trend, but why twelve months? And to play devil’s advocate, when values started to really turn up in the summer of 2020, did we need to wait 12 months until we said the market was increasing? Absolutely not. In short, we do not need twelve months before making a call for the direction of the market. If that was the case, then appraisers would perpetually be far behind the trend in an increasing market and a declining market.

NATIONAL vs LOCAL

It doesn’t matter what the “national” housing market is doing because the so-called national market is really made up of thousands of local markets. Some experts project a declining trend that will start in 2023, but that means nothing for Sacramento and so many other locations. Remember, homes prices fell maybe 30% in some markets during the previous housing downturn (and far less in some areas), but the median price dipped by 59% in Sacramento County. This just goes to show a national projection or trend doesn’t mean squat for the local market.

DOES THIS MEAN APPRAISALS WILL BE COMING IN LOWER?

Just because the market is declining doesn’t mean every appraisal is going to be coming in below the contract price. Lately it’s been a mixed bag and there are lots of appraisals still coming in higher according to conversations with loan officers. I have definitely heard of lower appraisals, but that’s not a bad thing (unless the appraisal was deficient). An appraisal below the contract price could have been a deathblow to a transaction in 2021, but hopefully today it’s more of a bargaining chip (sounds healthier to me).

THE MARKET LOOKED “STABLE ON THE DAY”

I recall when the market was tanking in 2007 hearing some appraisers say they’d check “stable” because “the market was stable on that day.” This was basically to appease lenders at the time who pressured appraisers not to check the declining box. This is not legit though because appraisers are tasked with being a neutral party to the transaction, which means showing bias like this to clients is off limits. Besides, if an appraiser is not identifying the trends correctly, that could show up in adjustments that are not given to the comps, right?

DUDE, IT’S JUST A PERSONAL OPINION

A local loan officer told me an appraiser said it’s just a personal opinion as to whether this declining box is checked or not. I mean, I can understand the sentiment since there isn’t a rigid list for what appraisers need to identify before saying a market is declining. Thus, there really is an element of subjectivity here. But this is where the appraiser has to be the expert by considering all relevant issues and diagnosing the trend based on research, stats, and observations. In other words, this little box to check should be backed by stats and support for the conclusion. If it’s just a checked box without support, then the appraiser hasn’t done his or her job.

Okay, that was probably more than you wanted to read…

ADVICE FOR COLLEAGUES

1) Be the expert in your market by being on the cutting edge of the trend.

2) Reflect the market and support your conclusions. If you feel afraid a client won’t keep you around if you say the market is “declining,” that’s not a good client. But also, if we start to get more robust stats from big data companies that the market is declining, you’ll be really behind the trend if you’re saying it’s NOT when everyone and their mom knows it is.

3) If you don’t know how to measure prices, talk to colleagues and get up to speed as quickly as you can. Take a class, scour the internet, try to add some new skills to your bag of tricks.

4) Take the time to unpack the market in each appraisal report. I honestly don’t care which box you check, so there is no pressure from me. But support the trends you say exist with some commentary and rationale.

5) If you aren’t making scatter graphs like my neighborhood ones, maybe it’s time to figure that out (or use some other type of graph). I have some free graph tutorials in case it’s helpful.

Thanks for being here.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? What did I miss? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Home prices are close to dipping below last year

October 10, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

We are on the cusp of seeing year-over-year median price declines, so let’s talk about it. I wanted to share what looks to be on the horizon in the Sacramento area, and whether you’re local or not, I hope this is helpful.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
10/11/22 Folsom MLS Meeting (9am)
10/13/22 Market update in Midtown (12-2pm Sign up here)
10/18/22 Orangevale MLS Meeting Q&A (9am)
10/20/22 How to Think Like an Appraiser (9am-12pm) (Sign up here)

THE SCOOP ON PRICES & DOOM

First off, I’m not a doom and gloom guy perpetuating fear for clicks. This is about objectivity and the stats – not being alarming. Okay, that aside, let’s dig into the details. The dotted line in the visuals below is a projection for the October median price based on the price of pending contracts in September. In short, the top line is the median price in 2022, and since May we’ve seen a sharp change which looks like it’s very close to touching or going below last year. It’s possible stats won’t dip below next month, but it looks strongly plausible for Sacramento County (the region will be really close). Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean every single month ahead will be below last year since price metrics can bounce up and down. Whatever the case, we’re close, and it won’t be shocking if finalized October stats are near my projected line. We’ll see.

A line graph to show the median price in the Sacramento region for the past few years. Today's prices are starting to touch last year.

Sacramento County median price line graph to show the median price this year is poised to go below last year

Placer County line graph to show median price trends and that the median price is very similar to last year

BUT BRO, THE MEDIAN HAS ISSUES: Okay, if you don’t care about technicalities about the median price, skip this section. Some might question the median price, and that’s healthy. The thought is we’re seeing smaller homes sell this year, which waters down the median price. But since May the average home size in the region is down 1.74% from last year and the median size is down 0.74%. In short, we’re not talking about a massive difference in size that accounts for the dramatic price difference today (home size does matter). However, all price ranges have seen a dip in volume, and if we start to see more of a dip at the top or bottom, that could certainly affect the median price. Lately volume has been hit the hardest at lower prices. Ultimately, I advise watching traditional metrics such as the median price, average sales price, and average price per sq ft, but also watch big data firms that put out price indexes that don’t have anything to do with the median. Absorb it all. On that note, I talked to Rick Palacios Jr of John Burns Real Estate Consulting and he tells me their Burns Home Value Index is down 7% from the spring through September in Sacramento. In contrast, the median price is down 8.9% from the spring during this same time period. So, there’s a difference, but not too far apart.

CHOOSING COMPS: Being close to last year doesn’t mean the best comps are automatically going to be from one year ago. Maybe. Maybe not. This is where it’s critical to study recent neighborhood sales as well as listings and pendings. The story won’t be exactly the same in every neighborhood, so be careful about imposing a “prices are lower than last year” narrative on every area.

MARKET TRUTHS:

1) CHANGE: Markets go up and down, and home prices are not sacred. In my office I have a sign that says, “The market is always moving.” It’s just true. And while Chuck Norris might eat 7% mortgage rates for breakfast, it’s not as easy for the rest of us mere mortals.

2) WE NEED AFFORDABILITY: As I said a few weeks ago, higher rates are changing the game, and we ought to believe the Fed when they say they want to reset the housing market. If rates went down dramatically, it would bring lots of buyers back, but prices would still be high, so low rates alone don’t solve the affordability issue. This is where price declines today seem necessary for the climate of rates at seven percent.

3) BUT INVENTORY IS LOW: Inventory is definitely still historically low, but a lack of affordability is the bigger force here. In other words, low housing supply isn’t the trump card to keeping prices up. I find sometimes people use a low inventory narrative to say prices cannot go down, but the stats are currently showing otherwise.

4) WE NEED TIME TO SEE THE TREND: There are many ideas about the future and the magnitude of possible declines, but only time will tell for sure. Remember, projections for “national” housing trends don’t mean much for local markets. So, when people say things like, “Dude, the national market will take a 10% hit,” that might not apply at all to Sacramento or wherever you are located. The truth is some areas will feel it more than others.

5) FIGURING IT OUT: The market will adapt and figure this out. If rates keep rising, we’re poised to see more buyers step aside. Bottom line. But this doesn’t mean all buyers and sellers will stop. For now, we are missing about 3,500 sales in the Sacramento region since May, but over 10,000 sales have happened within this time period. Sometimes people talk like literally everyone has stopped buying, but that’s fake news. I’m not trying to sugarcoat the housing trend. I’m just saying we need to obsess over actual stats and form our perception based on the numbers. And remember, it might not be a good time for you to buy or sell, but that doesn’t mean it’s that way for everyone. Look, buy or don’t buy, but be confident in your decision. No pressure from me.

SOME ADVICE:

1) BUYERS: Be patient for the right house and do not overpay. Try to get a better deal, get credits, ask for repairs, and see if you can get a price reduction. Be realistic though. Prices have been going down, but this is not January 2008 either. In recent months we’ve seen 26% fewer sales, which means you have more power. But it also means 74% of the market has still been happening. In short, don’t make any rash decisions, and get as much as the market will give you right now.

2) SELLERS: If you want to compete for the attention of buyers today, you have to put your best foot forward and accept that buyers aren’t desperate for you. Seriously, buyers are picky about getting into contract, and they’re going to walk if you play games. Buyers are really sensitive about price, location, and condition. You can only control the price and condition, so do all you can to compete. And use a mortgage calculator to plug in numbers to see what the monthly payment looks like on a house like yours. Once the shock wears off, let that be fuel for reasonable pricing. What is similar and getting into contract? Price according to those data points rather than your neighbor John who is smoking pricing crack (technical term for John being unrealistic).

3) REAL ESTATE FRIENDS: It looks like price metrics are going to dip below last year. If not next month, it’s likely to be soon unless something interrupts the trend. The truth is this can be really challening for some real estate professionals who are used to saying only ultra-positive things about the market. My advice? Build your business and narrative on the stats and lifestyle buyers instead of glowing news of prices being up. It’s not about the direction of prices, but instead about finding prospective clients who have incentive to buy and sell regardless of what prices are doing. This is true in an up market and it’s true in a down market. Bottom line.

Thanks for being here.

—–——– DEEP LOCAL MARKET UPDATE ———––

Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

YEAR OVER YEAR STATS:

Here’s a look at stats compared to last year. And remember, closed sales in September really tell us what the market used to be like in August when the bulk of these properties got into contract.

MONTH TO MONTH:

Looking at sequential months is key too so we don’t just get stuck or hyper-focused on last year (the past).

OTHER VISUALS:

Here are lots of visuals. Probably more than you wanted. I have mostly Sacramento County and regional stuff this time around since most of my presentations have been in Sacramento lately.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Thanks for being here.

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing happen with prices right now? If you’re not local, are prices in your market close to year-over-year declines? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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