It’s easy to fall into the trap of saying one thing about the housing market. Just as a comedian has a shtick, or regular performance, we can get into the routine of talking about real estate based on one big idea about what the market is doing or will do. Let’s consider some examples. Which one(s) are you? Any thoughts?
Doom & Gloom: The market is going to crash like it did 10 years ago.
Corrector: Values will correct but not implode.
One-Metric Wonder: The market will turn as soon as this one thing happens.
Normal: The market is normal and not in a “bubble”.
Mr. Buzzword: The market is headed toward a “shift” in the future.
Polly Pollyanna: It’s always a good time to buy and sell. Everything is always good.
Specific Year Guy: This year is going to be the one where values turn.
Mrs. Cyclepants: The market has a 7 year cycle and it’s about up.
Foreclosure Prophet: Another foreclosure wave is coming. Just wait.
Headline Regurgitator: This person says whatever the latest headlines say.
Spinster: Any negative aspect of housing is spun into something positive.
The Feeler: I feel like the market is strong and will be in the future.
Crystal Ball: This is exactly what the market is going to do.
Broken Crystal Ball: Nobody knows the future including me.
If we’re honest we might identify with several shticks above. That’s okay. I’m not saying there’s something wrong with that, but let’s be challenged to consider what we say and not get locked into conveying only one thing about the complex housing market. Moreover, let’s be cautious about imposing clichés and ideas on the market because it’s easy to miss trends that way. At the same time let’s not be naive by refusing to consider the future. My advice? Pay attention to the numbers and know them well enough to quote, know what is normal and not for the time of year, remember that values might be moving differently in various price ranges and neighborhoods, and find ways to talk about current values in specific terms while keeping an eye on the future (instead of focusing entirely on the future).
My knee & market update post: Some of you may know I hurt my knee in a snow tubing accident 10 days ago. I have an MRI next week, but for now the doctor thinks I may have torn my meniscus. Anyway, I normally do my big market update between the 10th and 15th of the month, but I can’t swing it this week since I took last week off and I’m basically playing catch-up with all my reports this week. I’m just grateful to be at my desk again. Anyway, I will be 100% up and running (not literally) next week, and I’ll get to my big update then. Thanks for your understanding.
Questions: Which shtick stands out to you most? Any others to add? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.