appraisals

The housing market will get worse before it gets better

November 29, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 14 Comments

It’ll get worse before it gets better. That’s pretty much true in lots of ways in life. Going through the teenage years, recovering from injury, remodeling a kitchen… and enduring a housing downturn. Today I have a few things to share, and I hope this will be helpful (especially #3 as you look to 2023).

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
12/5/22 SAFE Credit Union market update on Zoom (register here (free))
1/18/23 WCR Market Update in Cameron Park (register here)
1/19/23 Big market update at SAR on Zoom (details TBD)
1/23/23 Residential RoundUP on Zoom (register here (free))
5/22/23 Yolo YPN (details TBD)

Three quick things:

1) THE MARKET ISN’T THE SAME EVERYWHERE

The housing market is NOT the same in every part of the country, or even every sliver of the local market. Here are two images from John Burns Real Estate Consulting to show what I mean. Read their original post here.

Does anything surprise you on the list? It’s not a shocker that Sacramento made the falling list along with some of the usual suspects we’ve been reading about in media stories.

DIPPING PRICES IN SACRAMENTO

Here’s a look at the preliminary median price for November in the Sacramento region. I’ll solidify this visual in a week when we have more November stats collected. But do you see how the median price this year (black line) is officially below last year (orange line)? As I mentioned a few weeks back, 40% of pandemic price gains have been wiped away over the past six months. That’s not always easy to digest, but it is exactly what sellers need to hear right now. And again, the median is not a perfect metric as it doesn’t rigidly translate to every price range and location.

2) GETTING WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER

Back to my blog title. It’ll get worse before it gets better. Someone saw this visual during a presentation last month and had an epiphany that closed sales volume got really ugly for a couple of years during the previous housing crash, but volume eventually returned to the market. I think the takeaway for this person was to hold on tightly right now, and hope for eventual recovery too. Of course, there isn’t any template for how a housing market needs to correct, so we don’t want to think of 2007 as the formula. But it does make sense to see some volume vanish for a season until the housing market starts to heal by becoming more affordable. It’s impossible to say how long volume will be subdued ahead, but we’ll get more buyers back as affordability increases and market confidence grows.

Worst November in Two Decades: I know this sounds super sensational, but it’s what the stats show. As of now it looks like we’re going to have the worst November in over two decades in the Sacramento region. It’s possible we could slightly surpass 2007 if an unexpected number of sales close over the next week, but November volume looks like it’ll be down about 43% from the pre-pandemic average, and down 49% from last year (Sacramento County is 46% and 50%). No matter how we look at it, nearly half the market is missing. Or we could say half the market is happening. Both trends are accurate.

November Rain: On a side note, all this talk of change reminds me of a classic Guns ‘N Roses song, November Rain.

Nothin’ lasts foreverAnd we both know hearts can changeAnd it’s hard to hold a candleIn the cold November rain

3) EXPECT A SPRING VOLUME UPTICK IN 2023

This might be helpful as you plan ahead for the spring market. It’s important to note that seasonal volume changes can still exist even in a downward market. Check out the visual below where the dark bars represent sales from January to June each year. Even in 2007, one of the worst years on record, we still saw a spring seasonal uptick in volume. This shows it’s really difficult to erase the seasonal trend in real estate – even when prices are plummeting. Granted, we don’t technically know what is ahead for the market, so if rates spike unexpectedly, all bets are off. For now, I would expect to see some seasonality ahead. This makes sense in light of stories from the trenches too where I’m hearing buyers waiting for better inventory in the spring, and some sellers will wait to list in the new year instead of December.

I hope this was helpful.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

FREE WEBINAR ON DECEMBER 5TH:

I’m doing a deep dive into the Sacramento market on December 5th at 12pm. There is so much to talk about, and I’ll have about an hour. Thanks to SAFE Credit Union for making this FREE EVENT happen. Register here.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What did I miss?

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Saying goodbye to pandemic home price gains

November 8, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Sellers have been saying goodbye to some of the equity they gained during the past couple of years. In Sacramento, we’ve actually lost 40% of the pandemic gains since May. Today I want to talk about price trends, and I hope this is helpful – whether you’re local or not. Skim quickly or digest slowly.

White wood texture background with the title, "Saying goodbye to some home equity."

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
11/15/22 Sacramento Bee Q&A at 12pm (RSVP here)
11/17/22 Bias & Real Estate Lunch & Learn (RSVP here)
12/5/22 SAFE Credit Union market update on Zoom (register here (free))
1/18/23 WCR Market Update in Cameron Park (details TBD)
1/19/23 Big market update at SAR on Zoom (details TBD)
1/23/23 Residential RoundUP (register here (free))

A meme from Dumb and Dumber with Jim Carrey and two actors in the front seat of a truck. Carrye has his hands over his ears. The caption reads, "Sellers not listening to the market."

THE POSTER CHILD FOR CHANGE

The trend isn’t going to be the same in every location across the country, but I suggest paying attention to pockets like Sacramento, Boise, and Phoenix that all seems to be the poster child for quick market change.

40% OF PANDEMIC PRICE GAINS ARE GONE

We’ve seen sharp price declines over the past six months as the median price has dropped by $75,000 (or 12%) since May in the Sacramento region. This is about three times the normal speed for seasonal softening. This doesn’t mean every property is literally worth 12% less, but I have to say the change is sizeable when looking at neighborhood comps lately and hearing feedback from real estate agents. Sellers, did you hear that?

Change: The median price rose $185,000 from the beginning of the pandemic, and $75,000 of that increase has disappeared over the past six months. Or we could say the median price is still up $110,000 from March 2020.

A bar graph from early 2020 to October 2022 to show the median price in the Sacramento region (a huge uptick and a sizeable downturn lately).

THE MARKET IS NOT A PARKED CAR

I heard someone talk about the housing market as if it was a parked car, but I disagree with the analogy because the market hasn’t literally stopped. For instance, over the past two months in the region there were 1,800 fewer sales compared to last year, but there were nearly 3,400 sales that did happen. I find it’s easy to fixate on the glaring portion of the market that’s missing, but let’s not forget to see the part that is happening.

NEIGHBORHOOD TRENDS

It’s easy to fixate on the median price for the region, but when appraising in neighborhoods my trendlines are also showing a sharp change. Here’s an example with the 95747 ZIP code in Roseville. As I talked about recently, I am definitely selecting the “declining” box in my appraisal reports.

95747 ZIP Code market trends in Roseville (a yellow scatter graph to show the downward trendline lately)

NO PRICE RANGE IS IMMUNE

“My neighborhood is super special.” I know, it really is, and so are you. But all ships rise and fall with the tide. What I mean is every price range has seen an effect from higher mortgage rates. Keep in mind volume is down in every single price range in the region too, which reinforces this point. However, the bottom half of the market has seen the biggest change in volume, which suggests buyers who are more sensitive to rate changes are having a more difficult time.

A bar chart to show the median price in various countiees in Sacramento since May

FLIRTING WITH LAST YEAR

This is exactly what sellers need to hear right now. The median price in the Sacramento region is the same as it was last October. On one hand this feels like a big event, but it’s really not a shocker since prices have changed quickly to adapt to a dramatic shift in the monthly mortgage payment. In other words, a sharp change in rates has led to a sharp change in the stats.

A bar graph to show the median price is the same as last year in the Sacramento region

OPENDOOR IS GETTING BODY SLAMMED

This market hasn’t been easy for iBuyers. 76% of Opendoor‘s active listings are listed below their acquisition price. This is blatant carnage. Keep in mind Opendoor typically has a 5% credit from the seller, but even with that it’s not enough to be profitable in so many of these listings.

Redfin: It was announced this morning that Redfin is stopping their iBuyer business. Here are some Redfin stats I posted on Twitter.

A chart to compare Opendoor acquisistion prices with the current list price among active listings in the Sacramento region (a bar chart)

WAITING FOR AFFORDABILITY

Prices have dropped, but this hasn’t translated to more affordability since rates have continued to rise. Some people are predicting lower rates in 2023, but we’re going to have to wait to see what happens. Almost nobody gets their rate predictions right, and I don’t pretend to have a crystal ball.

DOUBLE-WHAMMY FOR SELLERS

The problem with overpricing is prices are going down, so the longer you’re on the market, the more you lose. Not only will you have to lower the price due to being overpriced from the beginning, but you now have to lower even more due to prices declining since you listed. It’s a double-whammy.

A table to show the percentage and number of properties with price reductions right now in the Sacramento region by county

LOSING 2.5% PER MONTH

For five months in a row the median price has dropped by about 2.5% each month, and this visual helps show the change. The red line is the pre-pandemic average so we can see what “normally” happens from month to month. For instance, from September to October the median price normally dips by -0.07% (red line), but this year in 2022 the dip was -2.65% (black line). Remember, this doesn’t mean every property has literally lost 2.5% in actual value. Moreover, not every county has shown the same loss either by the month.

I can’t emphasize enough the importance of looking to neighborhood comps to understand the market. In other words, DO NOT automatically impose a downward 2.5% regional metric on a property (big mistake). But don’t take these stats lightly either. If anything, these numbers can be a cold shower to wake sellers up. There is a smaller pool of buyers right now, so price it right to meet buyers where they are at.

A line graph to help show monthly median price change in the Sacramento region. There is a red line to show what normal looks like and then a black line to show 2022. In short, the black line is way below the red line lately.

YEAR OVER YEAR STATS:

Here’s a look at stats compared to last year. Remember, closed sales in October really tell us what the market used to be like in September when the bulk of these properties got into contract.

MONTH TO MONTH:

Looking at sequential months is key too so we don’t just get stuck or hyper-focused on last year (the past).

OTHER PRICE VISUALS:

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Thanks for being here.

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing happen with prices right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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A sharp change in the housing market

July 6, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

A quick change in rates has led to a quick change in the housing market. We didn’t see much difference right away in the stats, but we are finally getting some good numbers now. Let me show you what I mean.

A blue background with today's blog title about sharp change. And there is also a wooden table on the lower 1/3 of the image.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
7/15/2022 Lunch & Learn Market Update (sign up (for real estate agents))
7/20/2022 Beer & Stats at Out of Bounds (sign up (for real estate agents))
7/26/2022 Navigating the Shift (sign up here (for real estate community))

BEER NEWS:

I just finished two years without alcohol. I gave up alcohol for health reasons, and it’s been a good experience. I’ll be adding another year now, so if anyone wants to join, let me know.

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH IN TODAY’S MARKET:

We’ve seen quick change in the stats lately. Check out how steep the line is between May and June in some of the visuals below. This is what I mean by “sharp” change. Let’s keep watching while staying objective.

1) PRICE GROWTH IS SLOWING

Price stats aren’t as sexy as they used to be. This visual doesn’t necessarily look sensational, but instead of being up 15-20% from last year, prices in most counties are now “only” up about 6-7% instead. In short, we are seeing price growth slow down. Right now, the growth actually looks somewhat normal at 6-7%, but let’s keep watching this line to get a sense of the direction of prices. In a normal year we should see prices soften for the next few months and then flatten out for the rest of the year.

This chart shows the median price from 2016 onward from January to December each year. This year the median price has started to crest about one month early.

2) BUYERS ARE FINALLY PAYING BELOW THE LIST PRICE

For seventeen months in a row buyers paid at or above the list price on average. This is profoundly atypical, but it’s been our normal for so long that I think we’ve gotten used to it. This visual shows buyers in June 2022 on average paid about one percent below the original list price (or $7,254 less on average). Look at how sharp the change was from the previous month. For now, the stat is actually very normal compared to 2018 and 2019, but let’s keep watching to see where the line goes in months ahead.

A line graph to show the dollar amount buyers are paying in relation to the original list price in the Sacramento region from 2018 onward. This line goes up and down depending on the time of year. Right now it's going down due to softening demand.

3) FEWER PENDING CONTRACTS ARE HAPPENING

One of the bigger ways we are seeing a shift in the market is with the number of pending contracts dipping for three months in a row. In most local counties in June, we were down a whopping 25% in volume from last year at the same time. On the positive side, this means 75% of pendings are still happening, but there is no ignoring the reality that we had over 1,600 fewer pending contracts over the past few months compared to last year. The black line below represents 2022, and this June was the lowest year in recent time. This isn’t a big surprise because mortgage rates doubling in a short period of time has given affordability a beatdown. This means fewer buyers are able or willing to play the game right now.

A line graph to show pending contracts from January to December each year from 2016. The line for 2022 is way below other years, which shows there has been a drop in pending contracts.

4) A SHARP INCREASE IN LISTINGS

Here’s the number of active listings on July 1st each year in the Sacramento region. I know this is only one day, but the monthly trend actually looks very similar. We’ve seen a quick rise in the number of available listings lately. We’re much higher than last year, but still lower than normal. We are missing about 800 listings from the normal trend. This rise in listings here isn’t so much about sellers choosing to list their homes. The real culprit has to do with fewer pendings, which means the pile of active listings has grown quickly.

A bar chart to show July listings in the Sacramento region from 2014 onward

5) LOTS OF PROPERTIES STILL SELL ABOVE THE LIST PRICE:

It’s easy to say everything is selling below the list price, but that’s fiction. In truth, almost 53% of sales last month sold above the list price, so it’s safe to say about half the market went above the original list price. Of course, this is a sharp change from last year when 76% of sales sold above the list price, so we’ve clearly moved beyond that honeymoon market. And I know, it would be helpful to have more years on this visual, but I don’t have that (yet).

A line graph to show the percentage of homes that sold above the list price in the Sacramento region from November 2020 through today. This line goes up and down depending on the season of the year.

6) OTHER VISUALS:

Okay, here are some other visuals in case that’s your thing. The stats are finally showing some bigger changes. I remember someone arguing with me in April that the market hadn’t shown much of a temperature change. The truth is the market did change, but we didn’t see change in the stats…. yet.

A line graph to show pending contracts from January to December each year from 2016. The line for 2022 is way below other years, which shows there has been a drop in pending contracts.

OKAY, ONE MORE:

May to June median price change: This last visual shows median price change from May to June from 2004 onward. This is a bit geeky, but it’s atypical to see the median price dip between May and June. I mean, it happens, but typically this takes place when the market is declining or in a year where there was dullness in the marketplace. For this year, keep in mind the 2022 real estate season crested early, so we are now comparing subdued stats today to heightened stats last year. I’m not sugarcoating at all here. It’s just key to know what we are comparing and how that makes a difference with the numbers.

On a related noted, for many in real estate prices are sacred, but I don’t take that view. Markets go up and down. That’s just what happens. Thus, my role here is to tell the story of the market without any bias. I’m not here to protect prices or promote doom. I want to sling the straight dope and help convey what is happening.

Anyway, I hope my explanation for May to June change makes sense. I’m happy to talk about that more in the comments. We need a few more months to understand price trends more definitively.

A bar chart to show May to June growth in the Sacramento region

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you the most above? What did I miss? Anything else to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

A spike in listings & sitting on the market

June 20, 2022 By Ryan Lundquist 21 Comments

The pile of listings is growing, and it’s taking longer to sell. That’s what so many housing markets across the country are experiencing right now. We’re on the cusp of seeing some real change in the stats over the next few months. Here are some things on my mind. Anything to add?

wooden house with a red arrow up. The captionn is the blog post title.

Why have we seen a spike in listings?

We have almost 3,400 active listings today in the Sacramento region. This is actually still lower than a normal level, but over the past two months there has been a dramatic uptick. What is causing this change? It’s not that sellers have rushed to list, but rather we’re seeing fewer buyers. Since April we’ve easily had over one thousand fewer pendings in the region. Instead of getting into contract, these properties have essentially stayed active. In short, we’ve seen a rise in listings due to a fall in demand.

It’s taking longer to sell (check out the actives):

I think this is a helpful way to show market change. Sales in June have gone quickly, it’s taking longer for pendings to get into contract in recent weeks, and active listings are really starting to sit. And when actives close eventually, that’ll really affect the stats. Do you like this visual?

A data table to show days on market trends for varioius areas of Sacramento. It basically shows sales in June, pendings since June, and current actives. Here's the trend. It's take longer to sell.

NOTE: Sales in June got into contract in May, so they really tell us more about what the market was like in May.

The stats are hot, but that’ll change more in July:

The market has been changing, but we haven’t seen too much change in actual sales stats yet. The truth is it takes time for temperature change to show up in the numbers. This dotted line projects days on market through July based on pendings so far in June. The black line (2022) is going to get a whole lot closer to the red line (pre-pandemic average). We are still not back to a normal days on market, but that can happen quickly. As I’ve said, we’ve waived goodbye to the most aggressive market ever. This is key to recognize since it’s simply going to take longer to sell today.

Duh, it should be taking longer:

Some of what we are seeing is seasonal because it should take longer to sell at this time of year, but we’ve also experienced a market shift since affordability has been given a severe beating in recent months. So, what we are seeing isn’t just seasonal. This is about a bigger change where buyers are struggling to afford and stay in the game.

I’m exhausted and out of quarantine:

I just got out of quarantine. Covid finally got me after all this time. My family actually had to cancel a New York vacation last week because of this, so that was a real bummer. I honestly so needed a vacation, but that’s water under the bridge now. Anyway, I’m grateful for health, and I’m also really tired, so I’ll be inching back to work and trying to pace myself.

Thanks for being here.

—–——– MORE VISUALS FOR THOSE INTERESTED ———––

GLOWING AND SLOWING:

There are two housing markets right now. Glowing sales stats from May. And slowing stats in June. This is important to recognize because we want to understand sales from the past while not ignoring listings and pendings today. The stats from May are still quite elevated in that properties sold a few percent above the list price on average. On one hand this reflects a market that is still statistically above the normal trend, but on the other hand let’s remember sales in May really tell us more about pending contracts in April (that closed in May). My advice? Recognize hot stats from previous months, but don’t ignore slower metrics right now with fewer offers, increasing days on market, dropping sales volume, more price reductions, etc….

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

Some visuals…

YEAR OVER YEAR:

Annual stats are important to digest, but don’t forget to look at month to month stats. But remember, sales in May really tell us what the market used to be like in April when these properties got into contract. Also, not every location and price range have the same trend.