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A market full of real estate prophets

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Have you heard the prophets lately? The market is flooded with real estate predictions, and there are a ton of people telling us what the future will look like. So naturally I figured we should have a way to test whether these voices are legit or not. Enter the flow chart below.

Okay, I created this because it tickles my funny bone. But there’s some truth in here too maybe, right? Obviously we’re all thinking about the direction of the market, and that’s exactly what we should be doing. But let’s also carefully consider the credibility of messengers out there too.

A few serious points:

1) Predictions: One of the dangers of predictions is you can end up losing credibility when/if your “prophecies” don’t come true. For years I’ve watched people prophecy the demise of the market and then move their predictions ahead when they didn’t happen.

2) Local data: Watch local data closely and study the market to know the signs of a seasonal slowing vs a tanking market.

3) Living in the tension: I stray away from big market predictions because my crystal ball is broken and I’m humble about my ability to predict the future. This doesn’t mean I’m naive to red flags or unwilling to discuss issues that could affect the future market. No. It only means I’m realistic about studying trends for hours each month and then living in the tension of not knowing the future.

By the way, download a larger version of the image above here. 

I hope that was helpful.

Class I’m teaching: On September 17th I’m teaching my favorite class called “How to think like an appraiser“. I’d love to see you there.

Questions: What do you think of the chart? Anything else I should’ve added?

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How much does a previous purchase matter to appraisers?

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How much does a previous purchase matter? Do appraisers give strong weight to the purchase price? Or do they completely ignore it? This is an important conversation, especially in the midst of so much talk about the market changing.

1) Meaningless: Sometimes a previous purchase is meaningless. That’s not always happy news, but if a property sold for too little or too much, it just might not mean much to us today. As an example, it doesn’t make sense to give any real value weight to a short sale that closed way too low or an inflated purchase that was clearly disconnected from the market and not supported by data.

2) Strong weight: If a property sold recently and it was a reasonable price, appraisers might actually give strong weight to the sale. If you didn’t know, appraisers are actually allowed to use a previous sale of the subject property as a “comp” in an appraisal report too (usually Comp #4). That might seem strange to do, but then again what is more comparable than the subject property itself? Of course let’s be careful about understanding exactly how the market and property have changed since the sale though.

3) Someone overpaid: One thing we have to consider before giving too much weight to a previous sale is whether it was a reasonable representation of value or not at the time. It can be dangerous to blindly accept a sale without understanding the full story of why it sold at the level it did. On that note, my observation is at times cash buyers fall prey to overpaying on the higher end of the market where comps are a little more sparse and it’s not always easy to see value. Here’s an example I just tweeted about this morning:

4) Seeing the context: Sometimes a previous purchase is an incredible way to understand how a property fits into the market. In the graph below I have three previous sales in the Stollwood area of Carmichael, and each time the subject property competed at about the same price position. That’s powerful, right? So in this case I would likely give strong weight to the previous sales because they help me understand value.

FYI: Here is a tutorial if you want to learn how to make a graph like this.

Quick closing thoughts:

1) The temptation: It’s easy to get stuck on a previous purchase price and not see the current market because we think, “It has to be worth at least X amount because it sold for Y amount in the past.” Be careful of that. We have to be objective by giving the most weight to the current market.

BIG POINT: As some wonder if the market will make a big turn at some point, this conversation could be very relevant if that did happen.

2) Ch-ch-ch-change: The market could have changed since the subject sold previously. Values could have increased or softened. The subject could have been in better or worse condition too.

3) Different trends: Sometimes I hear things like, “It sold in 2016 and the market has increased 15% since then, so it must be worth 15% more now.” The problem is market trends aren’t the same at every price level. Maybe the lowest prices in town have seen increases like that, but price changes could be more subtle at higher levels. So let’s be cautious not to project a more aggressive trend from a lower range on a higher one.

4) Distressed: I find looking to older sales from the foreclosure days isn’t all that helpful because the market was not normal then and properties were selling all over the place. I usually recommend researching previous sales, but when they’re from the distressed days we often have to take them with a grain of salt. The same thing is true for stuff that sold in 2005 at inflated prices.

5) Boldness: Appraisers and agents sometimes have to tell clients why value is actually lower than a prior purchase. That’s not always easy to hear, but we have to be bold and let the numbers speak rather than putting weight on a previous sale that might not reflect the market today.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Which point stands out to you the most? Any stories to share or other points? I’d love to hear your take

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When sellers expect buyers to pay for solar

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Sellers often expect buyers to pay the full cost of a solar system. So they say, “I spent $30,000 on this system, so let’s price it $30,000 higher.” I get the sentiment, but is it reasonable? Let’s talk about it.

This isn’t a “how to value” solar post, but a conversation focused on some logical points that might help sellers see why buyers often don’t pay the full cost of an owned solar system in the resale market.

1) Location: I don’t doubt the value of solar, but I do doubt the market always recognizes the full cost of solar in the resale market. If a solar salesman says the value is always the same as the cost of the system, that sounds like a great sales pitch. Is it real though? Does it work in Alabama, Missouri, and Antarctica? Is it the same for a $75,000 house compared to $850,000? Probably not.

2) Dollar for dollar: It’s always the dream in real estate to get buyers to pay dollar for dollar for any home improvement done by sellers, but that’s not so easy to pull off. Even if you look at Remodeling Magazine’s 2018 Cost vs. Value Report, hardly any items on the list give close to a 100% return compared to the cost. Of course solar is different because it saves money, but there still might be a principle here worth considering.

3) Age of the system: Imagine a solar system that is built to last 20 years, and it’s now 5 years old. An owner says, “I know the system isn’t new, but I paid $40,000 for it, so a buyer should pay $40,000 too.” That’s a nice thought, but the system is 25% used up already, so why would a buyer pay the full cost of a brand new system? It would be like saying, “I realize my car is 5 years old, but I want you to pay the sticker price from the dealer because that’s what I paid.”

4) Rebates: Were there any rebates when the owner purchased the solar system? For instance, if there was a $5,000 rebate for a $25,000 system, that means the real cost of the system was $20,000. This is important because why would a buyer pay $25,000 if the seller technically paid $20,000? Moreover, newer systems are bound to be more efficient and maybe even less expensive, so why pay full cost for an older system?

5) Savings: Imagine an owner saves $150 per month on her energy bill for a solar system that cost $25,000. In this situation at $150 per month it would take 14 years to save the full $25,000. Would buyers pay upfront for 14 years worth of savings to keep $150 per month in their pocket? Are buyers even going to be in the property that long? Let’s remember the benefit of solar is realized over the course of two decades, so paying for all of that benefit in one instance may not reflect what most buyers are willing to do. 

6) HUD solar programs: A home owner told a Realtor friend that HUD allows appraisers to add the cost of a solar system into the value. That sounds like an awesome idea, but it isn’t true. Appraisers don’t have a mandate from HUD or Fannie Mae to handle solar by adding the cost of the system to the value. What is true though is FHA allows owners and buyers to add solar on a purchase or refinance and get a loan (in some cases) for the full cost of the energy improvements. See page 453-454 in the HUD manual.

The puzzle of solar: This isn’t a post to explain how to value solar, but I hope some of the points above might bring perspective. In short, valuing solar is like a puzzle. We have to look to many pieces for the answer, so we’ll check out comps, consider the cost and age of the system, be in tune with how much money is saved each month, etc… If you think it would be useful, I can do a follow-up Q&A post about valuing solar (let me know).

I hope that was helpful.

Class I’m teaching: On September 17 I’m teaching my favorite class called “How to think like an appraiser“. I’d love to see you there.

Questions: What do you think of the points? Anything to add? What advice would you give to sellers expecting buyers to pay the full cost of solar?

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