This year is almost over and I’ll be shutting things down until January. Okay, I actually have a ton of work to finish, but this will be my final post of the year. With that said, I have a few things on my mind.
January public speaking gigs:
- January 12: Top Producer Panel in Granite Bay (sold out)
- January 18: SAR Big Market Update (sign up here)
- January 19: PCAR WCR Big Market Update (details TBD)
- January 25: Joel Wright’s Market Event (details TBD)
A FEW THINGS:
1) Thank you: I appreciate all the conversations we had this year and I’m so grateful to be on this journey together. I know that sounds cheesy, but it’s true. Thank you for your friendship, support, and all the business you sent my way too. And I haven’t forgotten those who helped me when things got dicey with my hospital vacation in 2020 (I’m doing great these days). Anyway, blessings to you and your family as 2021 comes to an end.
2) Real estate really isn’t THE thing: Yeah, I know I talk about housing trends non-stop online, but the most important things in life have nothing to do with housing data or money. Seriously. But this is a pretty cool Mid-Century modern listing I saw in person last weekend…
3) Avoiding politics at the dinner table: If you want to talk about real estate at the holiday dinner table instead of politics, here are some suggested topics. Inflation, affordability, investment fund buyers, and the elimination of single family zoning. Totally kidding. It’s sometimes impossible not to get political as we talk about housing. Good luck though if politics is your thing. “Pass the yams. And does everyone really think the Fed is going to hike mortgage rates three times next year?”
4) Different trends in different neighborhoods: I pulled some stats for a Capital Public Radio piece that will be going live soon (link coming). The idea is to compare a few neighborhoods a decade ago with the same time period today. It’s interesting to see how stats have changed, right? But this is also a reminder that neighborhoods don’t always have the same exact trend either. In other words, even though we might say various locations are simultaneously going up in price (or down), there can still be huge differences because market dynamics aren’t the same everywhere for lots of reasons. For instance, check out cash purchases, distressed sales, and sales volume.
UPDATE: Here is the post from Capital Public Radio.
Thanks for being here. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!
Questions: What are your plans for the holiday season?
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Thanks for always sharing a fresh perspective Ryan, Merry Christmas and see you next year.
You are so welcome Karen. Thanks for all of your support and insight. Merry Christmas to you and your family!!
Ryan, thank you for the fine example you set in our profession! I appreciate you my friend! My best to you in 2022. Enjoy some blogging down time.
Thanks for the kind words Jamie. I hope you get some down time coming soon too my friend. Keep up the great work on your end.
I’m glad you showed how neighborhoods can be so different. As appraisers, we’re always trying to show what is happening for a particular neighborhood or competitive market and even a segment within that market and so often it runs different than we would expect when looking at the greater market.
Exactly. Thank you Gary. The segment we’re looking at might not be exactly the same. It’s easy to assume the market is doing the same exact thing in every niche, but that may not be the case. Like I said I think generally the market does similar things because all ships tend to rise and fall with the tide, but there are absolutely more aggressive segments of the market. In other words, the market isn’t exactly the same everywhere.
Great thoughts! I’m so glad your health is good! Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
Thanks Shannon. I hope you and your family have an incredible couple weeks ahead. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
Thanks Ryan for the great insight! Happy Holidays 🙂
Thanks David. Happy Holidays to you and your family!!!
As always, THANK YOU for the fascinating data!! I appreciate all of your time & energy that enables us to be a more informed group. Happiest of holidays!!
Thank you Leah. And I so appreciate the gift you sent my way too. That was incredibly thoughtful. I’m looking forward to next year and I always welcome questions and ideas for content too, so keep that coming. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!
Thank you for always sharing with us! Reading your blog each week helps keep me updated on the market! Glad your health has improved so much! Merry Christmas!
You are so welcome. This is a joy and I’m so grateful. Thank you Lori. Here’s to health and contentment in 2022 no matter what our circumstances might be.
Thank you for your knowledge my friend!
Happy Holiday to you and your Family.
Thank you very much Cuong. I appreciate you. Blessings to you and your family.
Ryan,
Wishing you a happy holiday and a well deserved rest. As appraisers the goal is generally focused on current value but you follow trends.
In that vein, all the figures in the tables demonstrates the range of market vitality over time. Few would deny the huge current demand and low supply in all areas field by cheap money, jobs aplenty, lack of housing, inflation.
It sure feels a top is near. It would be very interesting to research the past several market tops looking for changes in key indicators and events during the major transitions. Your next project? 🙂
Thanks Don. I love the commentary. I’m continuing to watch for market resistance and so far buyers are still getting it done despite affordability heading in the wrong direction. One of the key indicators in my mind is having strong sales volume. But here we are about to enter our eleventh year of price growth. I think the interesting part will be seeing what happens to the feel of the market if mortgage rates really do go up (which is the projection from mostly everyone for now). My sense is markets change for so many different reasons and it’s not always the same thing that causes change. Moreover, not every market decline is the same either. It seems like market corrections or crashes are like kids. They might be similar, but they probably aren’t the same either. I think of the 90s showing a modest dip and then an avalanche in the 2000s. I do have a graph I’ll keep adding to that shows the past few up and down market cycles in Sacramento at least. I suspect this will be a big topic next year, so let’s keep the conversation going. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!
Happy Holidays to you and your family Ryan!
My plans for the holidays are #1 I won’t be eating any YAMS, so you can pass them right past me!!!
Our dinner table conversations will definitely include discussions about real estate. I am in the middle of continuing minor repairs and receiving quotes for pricey sound-proof style fencing for my recent Arden Arcade home purchase. I’m sure to receive opinions about the amount of improvements to make vs. the length of time I might have to postpone my retirement to pay for them… 😉 not to mention balancing the possibility of over-improving for my wonderfully diverse new neighborhood.
Enjoy your time off!
Love it. Thanks Patty. I’ll likely say NO to any green bean casserole, so those are my yams so to speak. Sounds like a lively and timely discussion at your table. I bet you’ll get some opinions on the future of home prices also. Just remember, if you end up bringing a PowerPoint presentation to the table, feel free to use some of my stats if needed. 🙂
Blessings to you and your family.
Hi Ryan!
These stats are so interesting! Who’d a thunk 11 years ago that we would be where we are today!
Paula
Exactly. Often times I think the same is true in life where things happen that we could have never imagined… Regarding the market, I don’t think anybody correctly prophesied the market we’ve had over the past two years in particular. Who would’ve thought we would see such intense market acceleration during a global pandemic? Thanks Paula.
Holy Oak Park!
Seriously.
I’d be really curious of an even more focused dive into 10 year price changes if possible.
I suspect N. Oak Park is even more dramatic.
I also suspect the that the truly wealthy neighborhoods circa 2010 had even less changes. East Sac still had a few less desirable pockets in 2010.
I’d be curious about the 40s, Curtis Park south of 2nd, or Land Park (esp excluding upper land park).
Thanks Nick. Yeah, it would be cool to dive even deeper. In my mind real estate stats are like layers of an onion and more questions keep coming the deeper we dive. In short, higher priced areas were able to weather the storm much more than entry-level price points. We see this in the stats for sure with the number of foreclosures and even the number of sales happening. One of the things people might not think of is higher-priced areas essentially declined less from 2005 so they were able to recover more quickly to peak prices so to speak. Sometimes people say East Sac and other areas like it did not decline, but that’s not accurate. I think you are spot on also to think about areas like North Oak Park which have experienced lots of change over the past decade.
Wow! Oak Park. Thats crazy. Great read!
Thanks.