housing trends

Five things to watch in the housing market

May 21, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 14 Comments

Housing is on my mind. Here are five things I’m watching closely in today’s market. I suspect many locations around the country are experiencing very similar trends. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

1) MOVE-UP BUYERS MAKING IT HAPPEN

It’s not as easy to be a buyer today since the math isn’t working for so many people, but there are definitely buyers who simply need a different house or location, so they’ll make a move to make things work. Here’s a tweet exchange last week with a local resident. This person is responding to a post where I talked about some counties showing negative price stats. This is a good reminder for real estate professionals to stop obsessing over prices being up (that’s a seller-oriented narrative). The only thing that matters today is finding buyers and sellers who have incentive to participate regardless of market conditions.

We’ve seen more growth at higher prices so far this year. This is about buyers at this range having more money and being less sensitive to rates, but there are surely some move-up situations here too.

2) THE CONDO MARKET IS A DIFFERENT VIBE

The condo market has a different vibe than the detached market. Supply has shown a sharper increase, and we’ve also seen higher cancellations. This is a good reminder that different parts of the market might not feel the same. There are going to be some situations today where prices are declining in the condo market, but detached homes nearby could be flat. Keep in mind not every single condo complex has this exact trend either. What we don’t want to do is impose a “condos are struggling” narrative on all condos. My advice? Look to the comps in each area.

3) SHORT SALES HAVE GROWN, BUT BANK-OWNED SALES HAVEN’T

Short sales have tripled this year, but what that means is there have been 27 so far in the region compared to 9 last year. We could say that’s a whopping 200% growth, but that sounds sensational – especially when we back up for some context to see how many there were a decade ago. No matter what though, we’ve seen growth, so let’s not ignore a trend. I expect to see more short sales ahead as consumers are dealing with growing debt and delinquencies.

It’s not correct to say all distressed sales are growing because bank-owned sales have not grown this year. There has been no wave of foreclosures hitting the market. Let’s keep watching this ahead. For now, it’s best to say short sales have grown, but bank-owned sales have not.

4) NEW CONSTRUCTION IS NO LONGER SUPER HOT

Stats for new homes have been glowing, but that’s no longer the case. April was another lackluster month of new homes sales. Besides 2020, it was the lowest April in a decade locally. When we look at the past 90 days, volume is down 28% from one year ago. That’s 543 fewer sales this year compared to the same time last year. This is a blatant change from recent years, and it’s something we want to continue to watch. It seems concessions aren’t working like they used to.

Two things to watch: Pay attention to builder prices. If builders have more standing inventory, then they’ll have to offer even more concessions or lower prices. The thing I’m curious about is whether we see builders slow down their production. Secondly, watch homes that were built between 2021 and 2024. These units adjacent to current new construction are going to have a hard time competing with the brand-new stuff. Watch pockets with the highest levels of new construction in places like Roseville, Rancho Cordova, Folsom Ranch, and Elk Grove. Some agents are going to become specialists in working with owners who are next to new construction.

5) EXPECT TO SEE MORE CONCESSIONS

The housing market is softer than one year ago, but regardless of temperature, it’s still normal to see more concessions during the second half of the year since there are so many more listings to choose from. Check out the white space that represents July to December. Do you see an uptick every year (besides 2020)? So, expect to start seeing sellers offer more concessions to buyers – especially if rates remain closer to 7%. I can’t verify if this trend exists everywhere, but I have to think it’s going to be common in many markets around the country.

Here’s a look at sales with reported concessions in April in the wider region. Remember, there are two stats here. If nearly 45% of sales had concessions, that means 55% didn’t.

NOTE ON NAR LAWSUIT: Since the NAR lawsuit, it’s very possible that the commission to the buyer’s side is sometimes entered as a concession in MLS. However, in Sacramento County, last April the percentage was 40%, and in 2023 in April it was 41%. So, it’s not that much different today at 45%. The market is softer this year, so we would expect to see more concessions, right? This is something I will continue to monitor. In my strong opinion, we need to keep compensation separate from typical concessions. This helps both agents and appraisers when pulling comps and trying to figure out what sellers are giving to buyers. What sellers are doing for compensation for agents is a separate issue.

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What stands out to you most about the five things to watch? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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It’s been a long time since we’ve seen housing stats like this

May 14, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

This hasn’t happened in a long time. Price stats are barely up from one year ago. Over the past few months, prices have really flattened, and we’ve started to feel all the extra listings out there. Some smaller counties are even starting to get negative price readings. Let’s talk about it.

picture of street with real estate sign. The sign says, "The housing market is changing."

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

MINDSET IS EVERYTHING FOR REAL ESTATE PROS

An important reminder. Who has incentive to buy, sell, and invest in today’s market? Find those people. That’s the only thing that ever matters. I have some other tips at the bottom.

IT’S BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE WE’VE SEEN STATS LIKE THIS

Price metrics are hovering right around where they were one year ago, and it’s been a long time since we’ve seen that happen. Check out nine counties below and see how close the metrics are to one year ago. You’ll notice we’re starting to get some negative price metrics in some counties too (often smaller areas). Nothing is a shocker here since the market has felt so flat for many months, and that flatness is catching up to the stats. All that said, be careful about being rigid with these numbers because not every price range and location are going to feel exactly the same. Keep in mind if prices are flat on paper though, that could mean some locations truly are flat, but others could be up or down.

SOME DIFFERENT WAYS TO SEE PRICE METRICS

Prices have been moving very horizontal lately when considering the region as a whole, and there are different types of graphs to help show this. Here are some examples. Do you see the blue line and red line getting very close?

And scatter graphs look like this in most neighborhoods. It’s been overwhelmingly flat in so many locations, but at times in some areas it looks like there is some downward direction too.

SUPPLY HAS BEEN GROWING MORE THAN DEMAND

The reason why the market has been softening is we are seeing the pile of actives grow more than the pile of sales. In other words, supply is growing faster than demand. For instance, during the first four months of the year, we had about 1,500 extra new listings in the region compared to the same time last year, but we had less than 100 extra sales. We are actually still historically low in terms of the number of listings, but we don’t need to be at “normal” levels for the market to soften. It’s all about the relationship between the number of sellers and buyers today. And today, the number of sales has been stagnant, which is why we’re feeling the higher level of listings today (even though it’s not historically high).

LACKLUSTER BUYER DEMAND IN APRIL

Since early April we’ve seen a dip in the number of pending contracts (see blue line). Is this the tariff effect and economic uncertainty, or is it the byproduct of mortgage rates being slightly higher since then? Maybe it’s one or the other, or both. No matter what, we can say uncertainty has not been a good thing for housing since early April.

WHERE ARE BUYERS BUYING?

Here’s a look at some data for the first four months of the year. It’s overall pretty flat in most areas, but the positive news is buyers have thawed out very slightly.

HIGHER PRICES STILL PERFORMING BETTER

More strength at the top. That’s been the vibe. Check out the visuals below. The percentages look sensational, so just be sure to look at the blue bars too (actual number of sales). For instance, volume above $1.5M rose about 10% this year, but that’s only 12 more sales than last year.

LOOKING AHEAD TO A SOFTER MARKET?

It’s going to be interesting to see how the market moves ahead. Look, if rates dipped, that could change the temperature of the housing market since so many buyers are waiting for the math to work. But if we persist to have listings grow more than sales like we have been seeing, that could lead to softer prices. Only time will tell, but my expectation is for lower prices if we continue to see supply outperform demand.

TRUTH NUGGETS FROM MY MARKET TALKS

Please come to some of my talks. I am speaking typically once a week, and I’ve been doing a deep dive into the stats. But on top of numbers, I’m talking about the importance of mindset for real estate professionals. You can’t control the market, but you can control your mindset. I’m also identifying locations and price ranges to focus business as well as language to use to describe the market. Here is a slide from yesterday at PCAR.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing happen with prices right now? Are they up, flat, or down in the areas you’re working? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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Gone are the days of getting a gazillion offers

May 8, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Getting ten offers was so 2021. Today, you might only get one. Or maybe two. But then again, zero if you’re overpriced. I have some brief stats today, and I hope they resonate and help build expectations for today’s housing market.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (register here for today’s event)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

BE HAPPY WITH ONE ‘CUZ YOU MIGHT NOT GET MORE

Gone are the days of getting a gazillion offers. Over the past week of pendings, 56.6% of homes had only one offer in the Sacramento region per MLS data, and 79.9% had one or two. In short, the vast bulk of properties (that get into contract) are going to have just one or two offers at most. In short, if you are priced right, the hope today is to get one to two offers. Not 5 or 10.

GETTING ZERO OFFERS

There are about 4,000 active listings right now with zero offers in the Sacramento region, which is important to talk about. We don’t want to get so fixated on what’s happening with pendings that we forget to think about these properties. The number of listings has definitely increased lately. We’re not back to normal levels, but sales are still really low, so the market is definitely feeling the extra listings.

FLAT PRICE VIBES

It was slightly too early to push out my big monthly recap this week, so I’ll do that next week. For now, I wanted to share some stats to help show how flat the market has been. We’ve been talking about this for many months, and it’s what the stats are showing year-over-year. More next week.

UNICORN SITUATIONS STILL HAPPEN

Look, there are still situations with a ton of offers. I get it. There was one this week with 21 offers. All I’m saying is that’s unicorn territory that doesn’t represent the rest of the market. By the way, the property with 21 offers was a cosmetic fixer in Sacramento priced below $290,000.

FRUSTRATION FOR BUYERS IS REAL

Buyers have more power today, and there is a greater chance of being able to get concessions from the seller too, but there is still decent competition out there for the good stuff. I was at an open house last Friday night in my neighborhood, and while I was talking to the agent for about thirty minutes, there were five other people who came through the house. This property just listed last week, and it’s now pending with two offers. All I’m saying is buyers are very patient and picky today (rightly so), but they’re ready to act quickly when the right house hits the market. This is why it feels competitive out there…. for the good stuff anyway.

STATS TO USE ON SOCIAL MEDIA THIS WEEK

3,835 active listings do not have any offers
38.5% of current actives have had a price reduction
Price reductions have ranged from $1 to $800K for active listings
27.4% of pendings over the past two weeks had a price drop before getting into contract
Price drops ranged from $2,131 to $275,000 for properties that went pending over the past two weeks
56.6% of pendings this week had one offer
79.9% of pendings had one or two offers this week
Only 5.1% of pendings had more than five offers
1.3% of pendings had ten or more offers

Stats based on single family detached units in MLS as of 5/7/25 (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado). Please cite me with the stats. Thanks.

Thanks for being here.

DATA: Yes, our local MLS has a field that shows the number of offers as well as a “yes” or “no” multiple offers field.

Questions: Why are some properties generating offers and others nothing at all? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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Sellers are coming back faster than buyers

May 1, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

The best way to describe the housing market is sellers are coming back faster than buyers. It’s simply easier to list a home than buy a home today. And this is why the housing temperature has changed. Let’s do a deep dive today into supply vs demand, and I suspect many areas around the country can relate to this.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (register here)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

SUPPLY IS THE GATEWAY TO MORE SALES

Sometimes people freak out when hearing about more supply hitting the market, but it’s important to realize more supply is the gateway to getting more sales. I’ve been talking about this lately with my friend Geoff Black, and I wanted to give him props for the gateway language. Anyway, if we continue to see the pile of listings grow faster than the pile of sales, that could put downward pressure on prices, which could eventually bring more buyers into the market. Only time will tell how the market unfolds, but more supply is what we want to see. And for my real estate friends, today is all about mindset. If you are struggling about the market changing, my advice is to figure out how you can see opportunities instead of negatives.

MISSING 35,000 LISTINGS

This is the x-factor for why prices have not dropped heavily in recent years. Over the past three years we’ve seen about 35,000 sellers NOT list their homes. This visual compares the number of new listings with the pre-2020 average. Imagine how different the market would feel if we had all that extra supply. And do you see how the trend is improving? We’re starting to get more listings, so we are not as far from the norm today.

Here’s a different way to look at the same thing. The dotted line represents the pre-2020 average, and the blue line is what we’ve seen happen.

SELLERS ARE REALLY STARTING TO THAW OUT

The number of listings today is still historically low, but it’s notably different than last year, and the market really feels it. Do you see sellers thawing out in these stats?

THERE WERE 10,000 MORE ACTIVE LISTINGS IN 2008

There is so much comparison to 2008 right now, but back then we had about 10,000 extra active listings, which is why prices were able to drop so quickly. Sometimes people accuse me of sugarcoating when I share stuff like this, but this is math. The reason prices haven’t plummeted in recent years despite glaring affordability issues is we haven’t had a huge imbalance between supply and demand.

IT’S EASIER TO BE A SELLER THAN A BUYER

Lifestyle needs are happening more readily for sellers before the math is working for buyers. In other words, lifestyle changes are compelling sellers more than affordability is working for buyers.

NO LONGER AT THE LOWEST LEVEL EVER

Here’s a different way to look at the number of active listings. We are now beating the previous four years, which is nice to see. In 2023, we hit the lowest level of listings we’ve seen in decades. It’s worth noting that sellers are NOT rushing the market like some people think, but we are seeing very healthy growth since the low point two years ago. We’re just feeling the extra growth in the market since the number of buyers hasn’t kept up.

MORE SALES HAPPENING IN 2025 (TRUE STORY)

There have actually been more sales in 2025 so far compared to 2024. This is probably being overshadowed by larger growth with listings, but this is positive news. I know it’s barely more than one year ago, but more is what we want to see.

WAITING FOR VOLUME TO EXPLODE

The strange part about today is we’ve had depressed volume for longer than what we saw during the Great Financial Crisis. Back then, market volume peaked in August 2005, and after 2.3 years we started to see a huge increase in volume again due to a massive climb in supply that led to prices dropping very quickly. I get that there were other differences then, but today we’ve had depressed volume for nearly 3 years with just a little bit of growth. I think many people have been saying things like, “volume change precedes price change,” and I completely get that. But we have to concede that prices today have remained higher because we’ve had tens of thousands of sellers not list their homes.

SELLERS ARE WAKING UP FASTER THAN BUYERS

The biggest story today is sellers have been outpacing buyers. We’ve had about 19% more new listings from January to April compared to last year at the same time, but just slightly more sales. In actual numbers, there have been about 1,500 extra new listings this year compared to 100+ extra closed sales. Do you see why the market feels different in 2025?

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you about the stats above? I’d love to hear your take on things.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

housing trends

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