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housing trends

Rapid price growth & the Gilmore Girls next door

February 10, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 28 Comments

It’s unbelievable to see how much prices have risen lately. Today I want to share one quick visual to show you exactly what I mean. Then I have a couple photos to share based on a conversation my wife and I had about the Gilmore Girls.

BIG POINT: The median price is about $40,000 higher than it should be.

RAPID APPRECIATION: This visual helps show the median price rhythm throughout the year. Normally we see prices go up for about half the year and then they soften during the second half of the year. Well, 2020 was abnormal because there was an uncharacteristic price dip in April (beginning of the pandemic) and then prices basically went up in the fall instead of softening like they should have. In short, if we had a normal year in 2020 it looks like the median price should have been closer to $445,000 for January 2021, but it’s now $485,000 (orange line).

Crazy growth, right?

IT’S THE GILMORE GIRLS NEXT DOOR

The other day I was walking with my wife and we were admiring a brand new contemporary listing in the middle of an older neighborhood (Fair Oaks Village). Then when seeing a Craftsman home on the adjacent lot, my wife said, “Look, it’s the Gilmore Girls next door.” This made me laugh because she doesn’t work in real estate, but she clearly recognized the contrast in design.

Here is a brand new contemporary listing in an older neighborhood.

The contemporary home is located next to much older homes.

SOME QUICK TAKEAWAYS:

1) Gilmore Girls: First off, sorry if you don’t get the Gilmore Girls reference. My wife has been streaming this show over the past few years, so I know quite a bit about it (don’t judge me). Anyway, this show is about twenty years old and it took place in a fictitious town called Stars Hollow. This town is older and has many Victorian homes, which is why my wife made the comment she did. By the way, Sebastian Bach, the lead singer of Skid Row (80s hairband), was actually an actor on the Gilmore Girls.

2) Eclectic neighborhoods: Some areas are eclectic, which means it’s completely normal to have a variety of housing designs. Thus it’s acceptable to see brand new contemporary units mixed in with stuff one hundred years old. It’s like vintage and new coexist and people are good with it.

3) Contemporary vs modern: The words “modern” and “contemporary” are often used interchangeably, but there is actually a difference. Here is a Houzz article if you want to read more (and maybe still feel confused). This blog post is also worth reading and maybe a little easier to understand. In truth I was torn whether to call this home contemporary or not, but I went with contemporary because it seems to blend some styles. Let me know what you’d call it.

4) The principle of conformity: There is an idea in real estate that homes ought to generally conform to the design of surrounding units in order to maximize value. In other words, when a home is so different it could lead to a lower value because it will stand out like a sore thumb. In many cases we accept this as a market fact, but it’s really not true all the time. For instance, in Fair Oaks Village there are many different types of units and the market embraces the diversity. Also, in Midtown we see a variety of newer modern units mixed in with Victorians and buyers are okay with that. Obviously in a cookie cutter stucco box tract it could be awkward to see something else, so it’s possible in some situations to see a negative reaction to different architectural types that just don’t fit. All I’m saying is it’s easy to assume a property takes a hit to value because it’s different, but that might not always the case.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Does someone in your household watch Gilmore Girls? What’s happening in your area with price growth?

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, contemporary, Fair Oaks Village, Gilmore Girls, housing blog, housing trends, median price 2021, modern, rapid appreciation, rapid price growth, Real Estate Market, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, trend graphs

The housing market nobody predicted

January 12, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Nobody predicted 2020. Who would’ve thought during a pandemic we’d see such an explosive year in real estate? The expectation was that the market would start to tank, but we saw the exact opposite. It’s not just Sacramento either because many areas of the country experienced this same dynamic. Anyway, enjoy some brand new visuals if you wish. Thanks for being here.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Here is a highlight reel to talk through some of the bigger themes this year. In short, the stats are stunning.

What stands out to you?

THE LONGER VERSION (organized by county):

1) Sacramento Region
2) Sacramento County
3) Placer County
4) El Dorado County
5) Yolo County
6) Bonus visuals

I welcome you to share some of these images on your social or in a newsletter. Please use this stuff. In case it helps, here are 5 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

1) SACRAMENTO REGION:

 

2) SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

3) PLACER COUNTY:

4) EL DORADO COUNTY:

5) YOLO COUNTY:

6) BONUS VISUALS:

Here are some extra regional graphs to show how various counties are moving together.

 

Other visuals: Not that you needed more, but check out my social media in coming days and weeks for extra visuals. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most about 2020 real estate? Any stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: annual recap of housing 2020, Appraisal, appraisal blog in sacramento, Appraiser, cash sales, El Dorado County, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, Housing market 2020, housing trends, million dollar sales, Placer County, price growth, real estate recap, rising prices, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Sacramento County, sacramento regional housing market, Yolo County

You carried me & a spreadsheet for Christmas

December 22, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 36 Comments

This will be my last post of the year and I wanted to say thank you for all of your support. I’m so grateful for the conversations and all the business of course, but there’s so much more. 

This year was not easy as I spent six nights in the hospital and took three months off work to heal from a really bad ulcerative colitis flare. I’m thankfully doing very well now and I’m happy. But I couldn’t have done this alone.

Thank you for the kind words, advice, flowers, meals, cards, prayer, and all the ways you showed support. I’m especially grateful to those who donated to the GoFundMe because it sustained my family and helped us pay off medical bills. 

It might sound cheesy, but you carried me this year. And I will never forget that.

Merry Christmas. May you know profound joy and a deep-seated peace regardless of your circumstances or the craziness of 2020.

Much love,

Ryan Lundquist

——————- now a spreadsheet if that’s your thing ——————-

A SPREADSHEET FOR CHRISTMAS?

It’s not the new PlayStation, a leg lamp, or a Bob Ross chia pet, but it’s pretty cool even if it sounds lame. This spreadsheet will help you make quick neighborhood graphs and it can work anywhere as long as you can export data from your MLS.

What does it do? This spreadsheet makes ten or so visuals as I shared about last week. This is a tool to quickly understand a few neighborhood dynamics. This isn’t a template to find out exactly what prices are doing. It’s more about the relationship things like bedroom count or lot size has with price.

STEPS TO USE THE TEMPLATE:

1) Download the spreadsheet here.

2) Decide what data you want to show. It’s up to you.

3) Create a custom export in MLS (see how to video).

4) Paste data from MLS into the template (see how to video).

5) Share graphs on social media, newsletters, etc…

IMPORTANT NOTE: Metrolist updated all of their terminology since I made the video, so when you make the template for the spreadsheet as I show you in the video you’re going to have to figure out what the new terms are. For instance, instead of “Selling Price” it’s now “Buyer Price.” This template should work just as I show in the video, but you must tell MLS to export the correct categories.

HOW TO VIDEO:

I talk for ten minutes or so about how to use this template. If you have questions, let me know. Please call your MLS if you cannot figure out how to export though because that’s not something I can help you with. Watch below (or here).

NOTE ON DATA: It’s important to think about the data you use. It could be a neighborhood, zip code, or MLS area. You might use all neighborhood sales or maybe just a sliver such as 1400-1700 sq ft homes. I suggest showing maybe the past 90 days or 180 days of sales so we capture a recent trend (or maybe it’s useful to see one year of sales?). Remember, if there is too much data it’s going to look like chaos. In short, experiment and figure out what works.

FEEDBACK: I have lots of graph tutorials here, but I’ve never made a template like this before for the public, so let me know which visuals you like best and/or what might work better in the future. I’m open to doing more of these if there is interest and it’s useful. Just remember this template isn’t meant to do everything or dissect prices in depth, so please see it in context. Thanks.

I hope this is helpful. Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Resources Tagged With: excel spreadsheet download for free, feeling the love, goodbye 2020, greater sacramento real estate blog, housing trends, how to, make a graph, real estate graphs tutorial, Sacramento Appraisal Blog, Thank you

Lot size mistakes & pent-up demand

June 24, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 56 Comments

Two things. Let’s talk about a very easy mistake to make with lot sizes and then let’s look at pent-up demand right now.

LOT SIZE MISTAKES: I’ve seen it happen twice lately where Tax Records lists the lot size, but it’s actually incorrect. In one instance Realist showed the lot was five acres when in fact it was only two acres. In another example it said two acres when it was less than one. Yikes.

My advice? Thankfully most of the time we can trust the lot size in Tax Records, but it’s still a good idea to quickly double-check just to be sure. After all, listing the wrong lot size in MLS or an appraisal could lead to litigation, right? What we can do is view the plat map to see if there is anything abnormal as well as try to piece together the lot size (easy to do if it’s a rectangle). Also, when viewing a property in MLS we can click on “See Map” and then “Layers” to view the lot size. All I’m saying is taking an extra minute to do these steps is a good habit that can be a safeguard. How would you handle it though if the lot size was different in Tax Records, MLS, and the plat map? Which one are you going with? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

NOTE: A land surveyor is going to be the definitive source. I’m just saying my advice above helps give us clues into when something is not right with a lot size.

Moving on to trends…

WEEKLY VIDEO: I’m really excited for this week’s video. On one hand it looks like the seasonal market has begun to crest, BUT it’s as if real estate has sped up a little after slowing down. Watch below (or here).

PENT-UP DEMAND: Check out these visuals to show some serious pent-up demand being expressed. For eleven weeks now the market has been rebounding after an initial dip when the pandemic began. And for five weeks in a row we’ve literally had MORE pending contracts than new listings in Sacramento.

VOLUME NO LONGER DOING THE LIMBO: A big trend we’ve been seeing is sales volume is starting to come back. In fact, this past week is only down about 10% from the same time last year. This is huge because a couple months ago we were consistently down 30-40%. The x-factor is having more pending contracts from 4-6 weeks ago finally starting to close.

LET’S WATCH THE COVID-19 NUMBERS: Unfortunately we’re starting to see COVID-19 cases tick up again in quite a few states. As it relates to real estate it’s going to be important to stay in touch with the psyche of buyers and sellers since a trend of more cases can shape whether people engage or sit out of the market. Moreover, it’s a wonder if different areas and states will have some form of lockdown again too.

ONE MORE THING: If you need some background noise, here’s a 30-minute Q&A I did with Rachel Adams Lee to talk about the Sacramento market. And yes, I mentioned my love for Breaking Bad and that I don’t like Downton Abbey (sorry). Enjoy if you wish.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Have you ever seen that lot size mistake in Tax Records? What are you seeing in the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Market Trends Tagged With: 2020 pandemic housing market, COVID-19 housing market, housing trends, incorrect lot size, plat map, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sales volume, tip for valuation, wrong lot size listed

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Most Recent Posts

  • How much have prices risen since the bottom of the market?
  • How long can this market keep going?
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  • You carried me & a spreadsheet for Christmas

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First off, thank you for being here. Now let's get into the fine print. The material and information contained on this website is the copyrighted property of Ryan Lundquist and Lundquist Appraisal Company. Content on this website may not be reproduced or republished without prior written permission from Ryan Lundquist.

Please see my Sharing Policy on the navigation bar if you are interested in sharing portions of any content on this blog.

The information on this website is meant entirely for educational purposes and is not intended in any way to support an opinion of value for your appraisal needs or any sort of value conclusion for a loan, litigation, tax appeal or any other potential real estate or non-real estate purpose. The material found on this website is meant for casual reading only and is not intended for use in a court of law or any other legal use. Ryan will not appear in court in any capacity based on any information posted here. For more detailed market analysis to be used for an appraisal report or any appraisal-related purpose or valuation consulting, please contact Ryan at 916-595-3735 for more information.

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