housing trends

Lot size mistakes & pent-up demand

June 24, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 54 Comments

Two things. Let’s talk about a very easy mistake to make with lot sizes and then let’s look at pent-up demand right now.

LOT SIZE MISTAKES: I’ve seen it happen twice lately where Tax Records lists the lot size, but it’s actually incorrect. In one instance Realist showed the lot was five acres when in fact it was only two acres. In another example it said two acres when it was less than one. Yikes.

My advice? Thankfully most of the time we can trust the lot size in Tax Records, but it’s still a good idea to quickly double-check just to be sure. After all, listing the wrong lot size in MLS or an appraisal could lead to litigation, right? What we can do is view the plat map to see if there is anything abnormal as well as try to piece together the lot size (easy to do if it’s a rectangle). Also, when viewing a property in MLS we can click on “See Map” and then “Layers” to view the lot size. All I’m saying is taking an extra minute to do these steps is a good habit that can be a safeguard. How would you handle it though if the lot size was different in Tax Records, MLS, and the plat map? Which one are you going with? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

NOTE: A land surveyor is going to be the definitive source. I’m just saying my advice above helps give us clues into when something is not right with a lot size.

Moving on to trends…

WEEKLY VIDEO: I’m really excited for this week’s video. On one hand it looks like the seasonal market has begun to crest, BUT it’s as if real estate has sped up a little after slowing down. Watch below (or here).

PENT-UP DEMAND: Check out these visuals to show some serious pent-up demand being expressed. For eleven weeks now the market has been rebounding after an initial dip when the pandemic began. And for five weeks in a row we’ve literally had MORE pending contracts than new listings in Sacramento.

VOLUME NO LONGER DOING THE LIMBO: A big trend we’ve been seeing is sales volume is starting to come back. In fact, this past week is only down about 10% from the same time last year. This is huge because a couple months ago we were consistently down 30-40%. The x-factor is having more pending contracts from 4-6 weeks ago finally starting to close.

LET’S WATCH THE COVID-19 NUMBERS: Unfortunately we’re starting to see COVID-19 cases tick up again in quite a few states. As it relates to real estate it’s going to be important to stay in touch with the psyche of buyers and sellers since a trend of more cases can shape whether people engage or sit out of the market. Moreover, it’s a wonder if different areas and states will have some form of lockdown again too.

ONE MORE THING: If you need some background noise, here’s a 30-minute Q&A I did with Rachel Adams Lee to talk about the Sacramento market. And yes, I mentioned my love for Breaking Bad and that I don’t like Downton Abbey (sorry). Enjoy if you wish.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Have you ever seen that lot size mistake in Tax Records? What are you seeing in the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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Home prices during the pandemic

May 27, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

What are prices doing? That’s the question I’m getting asked the most. Here are some thoughts about how to look at prices during the pandemic. I also have two brand new price visuals.

FIVE THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND ABOUT PRICES:

1) Eggs in one basket: I recommend watching multiple price metrics instead of putting all our eggs in one basket. So in addition to the median price we can watch the average sales price and average price per square foot.

2) Pure pandemic data: When May stats come out we’re likely going to see 80-90%+ of those sales having gotten into contract after mid-March when the pandemic began to affect us. Thus May sales will be a stronger indicator of pandemic trends than April sales.

3) Seasonal rhythm: It’s key to understand the seasonal rhythm of the market because it helps us spot what is normal and not. For example, the median price usually increases from March to April, but this year we saw the median price dip instead. What does this mean? We need time to understand it. For now we’re recognizing something has happened that is less common. It’s worth noting we often see the median price climax around May or so, which means if we see prices soften in coming months we’re going to have to ask whether it’s a seasonal thing, pandemic thing, or something else.

4) Prices are the last thing to change: We often obsess over prices and look to them first to understand a real estate market, but prices are usually the last thing to change. In other words, we experience a difference first in the listings and the number of sales happening before the trend eventually catches up to prices.

5) Weekly & monthly: I recommend looking at the market in monthly chunks, but it’s also worth watching prices by the week. The huge downfall of weekly prices is they shift dramatically depending on what sold that week. This is why it’s best to look to monthly data (but still get clues from weekly data).

MONTHLY PRICES:

WEEKLY PRICES:

CONCLUSION: Right now it looks like most price metrics have held fairly steady or even increased slightly, but the median price in the region dipped 1% recently. Some weekly price metrics have seemed to soften lately, but we’ll see what the stats show us in a couple weeks when reporting May data. Ultimately my sense is many neighborhoods feel flat and others at lower price points are still having upward pressure. The reality is we have a market with tight inventory and lots of competition. The temptation is to think home prices would be tanking during a pandemic, but that’s not what we’ve seen. For reference, this past week there were more pending contracts than before the pandemic began (I talk about this in my video). By the way, are any areas declining? Let me know what you’re seeing in the trenches.

RESOURCES:

New market video: Here’s my weekly video where I talk about climbing back to pre-pandemic levels. This is about 15 minutes. Check it out here (or below).

I hope this was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you paying attention to right now to gauge price movement? What did I miss? Anything to add?

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Wait, isn’t the market supposed to be tanking?

May 14, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

Surprised. That’s how many people seem to feel about the housing market since it’s way more competitive than we thought it would be for a pandemic. In fact, some buyers think they’re about to score the deal of a century until they start shopping and realize we don’t have that sort of market right now.

Look, I’m not wearing rose-colored lenses. I’m not saying the housing market is perfectly healthy or there aren’t glaring red flags on the horizon. I’m just saying there is a sense of shock right now that the market has felt as strong as it has for these past two months.

Two quick things:

1) Imposing headlines: There are lots of sensational headlines, but we need to be cautious about imposing them on the market. What I mean it’s easy to read a headline about the housing market being doomed because of XYZ, and then we expect to see certain trends in the local market. My advice? Look to local data instead and let the numbers form your perception and narrative of the market.

2) Be objective: Every week there’s a new viral idea about the future, but we have to wait and see what happens. I know it drives some people crazy when I say that, but it’s true. There are obviously red flags about the future in light of forbearance and unemployment in particular, but we still don’t know how both issues are going to play out exactly. This is why I recommend knowing the numbers and being objective about the future instead of tossed around by every new sensational idea.

NEW MARKET VIDEO: We’re two months into the pandemic now and it’s been five weeks since the market bottomed out. We’ve seen a shift up in new listings and pending contracts, and this tells us both buyers and sellers have been getting used to this market. This is 14 minutes. Check it out below (or here).

BRAND NEW VISUALS:

I’ve been in my Excel workshop cutting up some brand new graphs. Are there any keepers?

Unemployment: We’re seeing some huge changes in unemployment, so I plan to update these visuals monthly.

Inventory by price range: Here is a crazy-looking visual to show inventory by price range. I know this is a hot mess, but I share specific price ranges below. The point is inventory is not the same in every price range or neighborhood.

Days on market: Did you know homes spent 29% less time on the market this April compared to last April? Here’s a look at how long it took to sell by price range. In short, the market was more aggressive at lower prices (not a surprise). Also, don’t read too much into million dollar stats because there are fewer sales in this segment.

2-4 Units: I’ll be watching the multi-unit market to gauge change and whether we see a bigger drop in volume than the single family market. Of course we also have to consider rent control as an added layer that can affect the trends this year too.

Volume at the top: I’m watching the market above $600K to gauge if there is more change at the top than the bottom. In this visual I’m asking how the percentage of “jumbo” prices so to speak changes over time. This isn’t the perfect visual to tell us everything, but if we see this percentage decrease it might be a clue that less deals are happening at higher price points. Also, I know I need to change the graph to say “15%” instead of “0.15%”. For the life of me I couldn’t get that to work.

Volume change by price range: It’s important to study what the market is doing at various price points. I’ve been asked countless times about the upper end of the market lately. Frankly, we need more time. We only have two months of data. But here is a visual that I’ll be adding to over time. This visual basically gauges the change in the number of sales between April 2019 and April 2020 by price range.

Keep in mind the BOTTOM IS NOT CRASHING. The lowest prices saw a huge dip in volume close to 60%, but that’s because these price ranges had such a huge rate of appreciation over the past year. There are simply fewer sales under $300K this year, so the numbers at the bottom look really sensational on this graph. In short, this is where we have to know how to think through the numbers. Please don’t say the bottom is crashing (it’s not).

WEEKLY STATS: I’m updating this one every week.

BIG MONTHLY UPDATE:

This is long on purpose. Skim or digest slowly. Your call.

Let’s dive into Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado County (and the region).

DOWNLOAD 100+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

I don’t have market commentary this month because I’ve been giving so much commentary in my weekly video (and on Zoom calls). It’s just too much to write more here.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 100+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What stands out to you about the market right now? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

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An open letter to homebuyers

January 29, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 44 Comments

Dear Buyers,

Can we chat? I’ve been having SO many conversations about buying in today’s market, so I wanted to stir some thoughts and maybe offer some perspective. I hope this will be helpful.

Things to keep in mind about buying a home right now:

Starter home vs dream home: We all want that pristine HGTV flip, but we can’t expect a dream home on a starter budget. In other words, a first home might not have the best upgrades or condition and it probably won’t be found in the best neighborhood either.

Be realistic: Sellers are prone to overprice and that’s their glaring real estate “sin” so to speak, but for buyers I’d say being unrealistic about what you can buy is a big issue. The dream is to pick up a $150,000 brand new modern home in Midtown, but that’s nowhere close to reality. At times it can be sobering to see what you can honestly afford, but if you’re serious about buying it’s best to get up to speed with that. You don’t want to be like Jim Carrey in Dumb & Dumber saying, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” No, there’s not a chance to buy that house with your budget.

It’s okay to be picky and patient: Buyers get flack today for being patient. My sense is buyers are picky about getting into contract at the right price and staying in contract. That’s okay and I think you’re wise for being discerning rather than making a flippant decision (like many of us made in 2005). So take your time rather than being hasty. Just be sure you’re realistic that the home you want actually exists in your price range.

Waiting for the market to crash: Quite a few people say they are waiting for the market to crash. The idea is to hold out until prices are low and then swoop in for something cheap. But if a market implodes you might not be able to buy. The temptation is to talk about a crash as if it’s isolated without any effect on income, jobs, consumer confidence, credit scores, etc… But a crash in prices could mean other parts of the economy and life are plummeting too.

The last implosion: There is real concern about buying at the top of the market and I understand why buyers are hesitant. Just remember the implosion that happened last time isn’t the new formula for every future market change. On one hand it’s normal to see prices go up and down, so we can expect to see prices decline at some point because that’s what markets do. But the severe collapse during the last decade isn’t the new template for the future either.

Timing a market perfectly is hard: It sounds easy to time a market perfectly and buy at exactly the right time, but it’s not so easy to pull off in real life. In my experience most people buy because of lifestyle and being able to afford the mortgage payment rather than being technical about where we’re at in a price cycle. I don’t say this to gloss over a growing lack of affordability or frothy prices in some markets, but only to share a real issue. Your lifestyle is likely to be the trump card here. Where do you want to live? What school district do you want for your kids? Or if the market did decline, where do you want to ride it down? (my friend Mike Gobbi asks this honest question). Realize there is no right time for everyone either. I say it’s best to weigh your goals and lifestyle with current market trends. Does buying make sense for your lifestyle and wallet? If the market did go down, would you still be comfortable with the monthly mortgage payment? Those are reasonable and honest questions.

Bring a strong offer: If you are playing the market, bring a strong offer rather than lowballing. I just saw a Realtor on Facebook talking about a client who wanted to offer at 50% of the list price. Yeah, don’t do that. We all know sellers are smoking pricing crack and they need to come down from their “high” expectations, but at the same time sellers are in tune enough to sniff out offers that have no chance.

Fear of missing out & pressure: I recently spoke with a young man who just graduated college and wants to get into real estate. He asked me for advice since he was worried about missing out on the market if he didn’t buy right now. I told him: “Do what you want and be sure you can afford the mortgage. If you can though, get aggressive first about paying down student debt so you have more freedom for future real estate opportunities.” I mention this because there is often pressure to buy RIGHT NOW when in fact timing might not be right for every individual. For this recent grad, I’ll respect whatever decision he makes, but he won’t lack opportunities in the future if he doesn’t buy now.

Pulling the trigger: At some point you have to decide if buying is right for you. I’ve watched friends obsess over prices for years and become paralyzed in making a decision because they’re so worried about the future. Look, either do it or don’t. That’s entirely up to you and there’s no pressure from me. But my hope is for you to come to a place where you have confidence and peace about your decision rather than being anxious for years without any progress.

Talk to a loan officer: Some people can afford the market but they don’t realize it because they haven’t explored options with a professional. This is why the first step is talking to a reputable loan officer. Find out about different financing options and special programs that might be available. Remember, we don’t live in a world where everyone has to bring 20% to the table either.

Prophets: Everyone has ideas about the future, but nobody really knows what will happen. I’m not saying to ignore trends or red flags, but only to be humble about predicting. Also, realize many who make predictions simply move their prophecies to the next year when they don’t come true.

Other: What am I missing? Please speak up in the comments.

That’s my two cents. I hope it was helpful.

Questions: Buyers, any stories to share? Is there any helpful advice here? What are you most concerned about? What am I missing? Anything to add?

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housing trends

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