Goodbye California. Many households have said that in recent years, and in a housing market that feels frozen with so many sellers sitting, one of the groups that still has incentive to sell happens to be residents leaving the state. Today, let’s talk about fresh migration stats. Any thoughts?
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
11/7/2024 Think Like an Appraiser (3 hours) Register here
11/19/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A 9am
11/20/24 Delia Real Estate Group (private I think)
12/5/24 Made 4 More Team (Exporting Data from MLS)
12/11/24 Gateway: Think Like an Appraiser (private)
1/15/25 Mike & Joel Event (details TBA)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
4/8/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
WHY ARE PEOPLE MOVING?
There isn’t just one reason why people are leaving California, but some of the usual suspects include retirement, climate change, looking for a different lifestyle, economics, politics, job change, cashing out, etc… I’m sure there are other reasons too. What are you seeing the most?
FRESH STATS:
All visuals are based on the American Community Survey / Census Bureau. These stats are based on 2023, which is considered fresh for migration data. For my real estate friends, please feel free to use my visuals however you see fit (just don’t cut and paste my entire post verbatim). Thanks.
WHERE ARE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS MOVING?
Is everyone moving? Nope. But the latest stats show 690,127 people left the state in 2023. Here’s a look at the top destinations where California residents relocated. By far, Texas was the number one destination (like almost every year). This visual only includes a handful of states, but see an exhaustive list below. Is this what you’re seeing with friends or in your business?
MIGRATION HAS SOFTENED SINCE 2021
Duh, we don’t need stats to show us migration has slowed because the stories we’re hearing and conversations we’re having confirm that already. Look, I definitely still regularly hear about outbound migration, but it’s nothing like stories galore from 2021. And while we’re on the subject, I’m not hearing anyone in real estate say things like, “Bro, all the buyers are from the Bay Area,” which also speaks to migration change. Anyway, here’s a comparison of top migration destinations for Californians in 2023 compared to 2021. It’s not a shocker to see the trend decrease, but there are a few states such as Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia that showed more outbound migration in 2023 (impressive). There could be other states with more movement too, and I can dig into that if there is demand (let me know).
REMOTE WORK IS CHANGING
Another consideration for why migration hasn’t been as robust lately is due to remote work starting to pull back from the peak in 2021. Image from ResiClub / Lance Lambert.
YES, MOVING TO CALIFORNIA HAPPENS
People do actually move to California. In fact, the latest stats show 422,075 people moved to the state in 2023. The narrative is that everyone is leaving and nobody loves California anymore, but that’s just not true. Of course, the joke is it’s former California residents moving back. Haha. By the way, Texas almost always comes in first place for exporting residents to California.
A COOL MIGRATION TOOL
Here’s a pretty cool migration resource from the San Francisco Chronicle to see where residents in specific California counties moved. You can track inbound and outbound migration from counties (and even out of state). Keep in mind this tool is based on IRS data instead of the Census Bureau like my post today. And thanks Joe Lynch for the head-up (heard it from you first).
QUESTIONS FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
Many prospective sellers are stuck and unable to move since the math doesn’t work right now, but many of those moving out of state have incentive to list right now despite higher rates. My advice? Find those people.
– Who are your clients going to be over the next two years?
– Who is coming to the market?
– Who is leaving the market?
– What steps do you need to take to position yourself for the future?
– Where can you meet future clients?
WHERE ARE CALIFORNIANS MOVING THE LEAST?
Here’s a top list of areas where California residents are moving the very least. Does anything surprise you? And what works better? Horizontal or vertical bars?
COMING TO CALIFORNIA THE LEAST
And a top list of who is moving to California the least. North Dakota, where is the love? Haha.
BRO, I WANT TO SEE AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST
Okay, here are two more visuals to show migration data for every state instead of just top destinations above. These are probably too large for social media, but I’m anticipating questions about other states, so I’m trying to be thorough and avoid hate mail.
I hope this was helpful.
Questions: Does anything surprise you about the stats above? Why are people leaving and coming? Did I miss anything?
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It’s interesting to see where folks are moving to. I’m not doing many purchase appraisals these days so seeing this data is helpful. Thanks for putting your spin on it.
Thanks Joe. Appreciate it. And thanks for the heads-up about the SF Chronicle piece too.
Great analysis and reporting here! I knew that many people were moving to Texas from California but I didn’t realize that Texas also has the greatest migration to California! Very interesting. I’ve met some wonderful people from California that have moved here. Most have moved for economic reasons.
Thanks Shannon. Yeah, Texas show up big with exporting residents. The joke is it’s just Californians moving back. Haha. But the truth is there is a two-way street with many states. I think we only consider outbound data sometimes without recognizing a reciprocation that happens to some extent. By the way, I was messing around with the Freddie Mac Price Index this week, and I made a Dallas visual to show prices since 1975. Email if you want it. No pressure at all.
For my son it was affordability. He recently moved back to Alabama from California, however, when he was there there was no way he could afford to buy a home or rent an apartment on his own so he had to have roommates. Also, I see that Alabamians top the list of the states moving to California the least. All I have to say is that when you are in paradise there is no need to look any further. 😉 Just kidding, but on a serious note, I did find California to be very beautiful when I visited there. It’s a shame that it is not more affordable to live there.
Thanks Tom. I didn’t realize he moved back. Well, I’m glad you have him back. SoCal in particular is very challenging. I wish it wasn’t this way, but it’s what we have, and a struggle to afford is pretty much the norm here. The median price in California first eclipsed $100K as a state about 45 years ago, and it seems crazy with 2024 eyes to think of prices that low, but back then the articles talked about a lack of affordability at the time… Interesting to see.
Thanks for the kind words on the state too. I think as a resident, I often only hear only negative things online. Some people learn I’m from California and just start dumping negative perspective. Bro, I didn’t ask for that. Haha. 🙂
Great blog, as usual. I left CA on 7/6/2023 for Friday Harbor, WA. There were a lot of reasons. Taxes, change in employment, family considerations (kids had moved there), pervasive fires each year, wanting a new challenge, and just wanting to simplify life and take advantage of the equity we had built up in CA. Taxes and insurance are much lower here. Property values are stable to increasing. Property, when we purchased in 2021 was cheaper than CA. Certainly our quality of life has improved, but that is not a knock on CA. CA is a wonderful place with a huge level of opportunity for anyone. But I get why people want to leave.
Thanks Anthony. You seem to encapsulate a huge number of the reasons why people leave. I get it too. People come and go. I’m glad you are happy. And being near kids would be huge for me. I’m hoping my kids can stay in California.
Ryan – Great stats! My youngest son was outbound to Texas A & M in 2022 for Master’s degree in Elec. Engineering… yes, the TX. cost of living is lower but promptly, returned to California, the next year (2023) with Degree in hand, motivated by higher salaries, better weather, and more friendly citizens. High end Tech workers, like him, are very much in control when it comes to choice and quality of life… (currently, in Santa Barbara at Google Quantum Computing labs) ??
Thanks Bruce. Santa Barbara sounds incredible. I’ve always liked it there when visiting.
Great data and very timely post.
I’m curious to see similar chats about immigration in and out of the states? What states are people immigrating into the country to and how much has each state seen people moving out of country (either returning immigrants or US citizens moving abroad)?
Just another set of key data points, but would be fun to compare the population sizes of in and out migrations.
Thanks Nathan. Yeah, that would be fascinating. I’m not aware of one data source that covers that, but I’ll keep my eyes open. I know John Burns Real Estate Consulting has pushed out some stuff, but I’m not sure how exhaustive it is (and just national I think too instead of state by state).
Immigration is certainly part of population growth. We have to consider outbound migration, inbound migration, deaths, births, and international immigration. Any of these layers changing can affect the population.
I really enjoy your blog posts! I’m an Idaho broker and run a real estate school in Boise. Over the years, we’ve seen many people from your state move here, but lately, there’s been talk of some returning to California. I’m not sure why, but it could be due to the weather—or maybe Idaho’s very conservative politics, which might be a bit extreme even for more conservative Californians.
Here’s a fun fact: According to the California Public Employees Retirement System, more retirement checks are sent to Eagle, Idaho—a luxurious suburb of Boise—than to any other zip code outside California. In fact, the most recent mayoral race in Eagle was between two recent transplants from California. We jokingly refer to Eagle as ‘Little Orange County’ these days!
Thank you Mike. That is wild about a race between transplants. Classic. I have some family that moved to the Boise area, so I get up there here and there. I’m always blown away at some of the garages, so it’s a bit of a hobby to take garage pics when I visit. 🙂 I’ve heard Eagle described as “The Granite Bay of Boise.” That’s a local area with higher prices and custom homes.
Hey, let’s keep trading notes. I have heard of people coming back too. I just wish there was a way to statistically quantify that. We have a friend who moved to a different red state, and she thought she was conservative until moving. To your point, being red in California may not be the same as what it means to be red in Idaho (or other places).
Thanks Mike.
Great job putting all this data together. I was casually looking at your sources for my home area, but wish I had someone like you locally to do the work for me 😀
Thank you Gary. I just looked too, and outbound vs inbound is very similar for the state.