Home Appraiser

Pulling comps in a softer market

June 19, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

Choosing the right comps can make all the difference in a softening housing market. I’m having SO many conversations about listings that aren’t moving, so it’s key to back up and get some perspective on comps. Any thoughts?

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

SELLERS NEED TO CATCH UP TO BUYERS

This meme is a good way to describe the real estate market. I think buyers are ahead of sellers in understanding the housing temperature because they spend so much more time scouring listings, waiting for the right home, and making offers. Moreover, buyers have gained power in recent months since the pile of active listings has grown while the number of buyers has shrunk. So, sellers need to catch up to buyers rather than expecting buyers to come to them. It’s time to get in tune with how picky buyers are about price, condition, and location. What are you going to do to stand out and entice a smaller pool of buyers?

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT COMPS TODAY

1) Comps tell us about the past (not the present):

Comparable sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like. So, if I’m looking at a sale that closed 40 days ago, that property tells me more about the market from 70 days ago when the home got into contract. Are prices still the same today? In a market with some brewing downward price pressure, that’s the question. In short, don’t get stuck on the past, and recognize closed sales represent the past more than anything.

2) Give strong weight to properties getting into contract:

What is the market like right now? Look to properties that are actually getting into contract – the pendings. Forget about listings that are lingering and lofty sales from the past. If prices have softened since the highest comps from the spring, then fixate on what buyers are willing to pay right now (which is seen in the pendings). Of course, we might not know the exact contract price of each pending, but if we’re seeing pendings are only getting into contract when priced lower than recent sales, that’s telling of a softer market. Of course, we might see pendings at the same exact price level too, which is symptomatic of flat prices. By the way, about 34% of pendings in June so far have needed a price drop before getting into contract in the Sacramento region. This also means 66% did not need a reduction. On average, properties reduced by 5.7% before getting into contract. And yes, this is a Jennifer Aniston image I made with AI from X (Twitter).

3) Don’t price to other overpriced listings:

There are so many overpriced listings, so be careful about pricing to those unless your goal is not selling. I find some sellers get concerned about pricing lower because they don’t want to be a lower comp in the neighborhood, but individual sellers don’t have the power to keep the market high or make it go low. Take the pressure off yourself because you don’t control neighborhood values. Remember, one high or low sale doesn’t make or break the market. My advice? Do what you need to do. By the way, 43.5% of active listings have had a price reduction in the Sacramento region.

4) You’re not giving up value if you lower the price:

Some sellers struggle with getting attached to the original price, so they feel like they’re giving up value if they lower the price. Remember though, if it was never worth that amount, you’re not giving away value because you never had that value. Keep in mind, most of the time properties don’t end up at exactly the original list price. For instance, in the Sacramento region last month, only 14% of listings sold at exactly the original price.

5) Take negative price stats seriously:

We’re starting to get some negative year-over-year declines, and my hope is sellers will find strong motivation from that. This is where some listings are going to price lower than recent sales if current pendings are getting into contract at lower levels. All that said, we are NOT in a market with rapid price declines like 2007, so it’s important for buyers to be realistic about their power too. Also, don’t be rigid about declines. For instance, the median price being down by 1% doesn’t mean value is down by that exact amount in every neighborhood and price range. Look to the comps to understand where value is at.

By the way, this is one of my favorite visuals from ResiClub. We’re seeing more locations with year-over-year declines, so the orange part of the graph is growing. We’re starting to see some California cities join the list too (not just TX and FL).

And buyers, here’s a look at local competition over the past two weeks. This visual shows the number of offers in pending contracts by price range from MLS data. About 62% of pendings had one offer while only 4.5% had five or more offers.

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LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What else do you think is important when looking at comps today? And what are you seeing happen with prices when pulling comps? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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It’s a buyer and seller standoff. Who will blink first?

June 11, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

It feels like a standoff right now with buyers and sellers. Who is going to blink first? Sellers aren’t budging on the price, and buyers aren’t willing to pull the trigger on an overpriced home. In today’s post, I have lots of topics including dropping prices, shrinking demand, stats for nine counties, and the vibe of getting one offer. Skim quickly or digest slowly by topic.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento (register here)
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

MISSING URGENCY IN THE HOUSING MARKET

Buyers lack urgency, and they aren’t desperate to get into contract or overpay. They are extremely patient right now, so they’re going to take their time to find the right house at the right price. And if you thought buyers were already picky, getting some negative price readings is only likely to inflame more patience. On the other side, sellers are in a similar lack-of-urgency boat in that many are holding out for a unicorn price that probably doesn’t make sense for today’s market. The reality is many sellers don’t have a pressing timeline, and some don’t even need to really sell, so they don’t have major motivation to price it right and get the deal done. Yet, negative price readings can be motivating for some sellers ahead as that will feel sobering for some.

BUYER DEMAND HAS BEEN SHRINKING

It was the second-worst month of sales volume in May in recent decades in Sacramento County, our largest local county. Over the past year, we’ve had a trend of slightly more volume as buyers have been thawing out a little, but May was a volume beatdown. Sales have already been lower due to affordability struggles, but they were especially bad last month with an extra layer of economic uncertainty. Keep in mind demand ebbs and flows, so it’s not going to shrink forever. But for the time being, we are at a low point.

All that said, it’s key to remember that not every county and neighborhood is showing the same exact trend. For instance, May 2025 was definitely lower than last year in Placer County, but it still beat 2023 and 2020 – unlike Sacramento.

NO LONG LINES AT OPEN HOUSES LIKE 2021

I did a poll on my Instagram stories a few days ago, and the results line up well with what I’m hearing from agents overall. There are some crowded open houses, but traffic is mediocre in many cases. By the way, I don’t base my entire perception of the market on a poll with 150 votes, but hearing what people are experiencing in the trenches is worth listening to.

WHY IS MY PROPERTY NOT SELLING?

Yesterday, I had five conversations with real estate agents about their listings. I’m grateful when people reach out, and I’m always happy to trade some quick thoughts about the market (text me before calling). Please know that I don’t look up individual comps and tell someone if a listing is overpriced, but I do talk about the market. The reality is we’ve seen a sharper change lately, and many sellers are behind the trend living in the past. Here’s a snippet of a response I gave by Instagram DM.

Do you see how we are no longer at the pre-2020 norm level of competition? We’re also nowhere close to 2007 levels (or 2021). For the past couple of years, we’ve been hovering right around the norm, but May 2025 showed a sharper change beyond the norm.

The spring market peaked early this year (blue line). Moreover, the change is sharper than the norm too, which shows more properties are selling below the original price. In short, I think many sellers have been caught off guard. They don’t realize the spring market already peaked a couple of months ago, and they are out-of-touch with waning buyer demand.

GETTING ONE OFFER IS THE VIBE (OR ZERO)

Over the past weekend, 67% of pending contracts got one offer, and only 4% of units had five or more offers. Sellers, work with buyers. Offer concessions. Get the price right. Don’t expect buyers to bend to you. Meet them where they are at.

A HEFTY UPTICK IN SUPPLY

We saw a hefty increase in the months of supply in recent months. It wasn’t because so many sellers flooded the market. In fact, we actually didn’t have as many sellers hit the market in May (as I talked about last week). The issue is buyers backed off the market, and that helped the pile of active listings grow. Remember, supply can grow in two ways: 1) More sellers list their homes; 2) Fewer buyers participate, which means the pile of active listings grows since not as many homes are getting into contract.

HELLO YEAR-OVER-YEAR DECLINES

We are starting to see some year-over-year price declines in various counties. Not all metrics are down, so maybe the median is down while the average is still up, but there is no mistaking we’ve seen prices flatten to the point where we are starting to experience some negatives depending on the area. Remember, stats can bounce around from month to month, so don’t build your narrative on one month of data or put all your emphasis on the one metric that is up instead of down (or vice versa). I’ll share more counties below.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER MONTH FOR BUILDERS

The month of May was a slightly better month of volume for local builders, so have extra concessions started to work more? Maybe so. Volume is down 23% year-to-date compared to last year, which is a big number, but it’s a slight improvement from prior months. This is something we will monitor closely. Like I keep saying, builders either have to offer fat concessions or lower the price (or both). Keep in mind what builders do can really affect homes that were built in recent years around new subdivisions. I still think the hardest home to sell is the one that more directly competes with the builders because traditional sellers cannot buy down the rate as much as builders or offer such big concessions.

And here’s one of the larger builders over the past two weeks reaching out to agents saying, “I love you. We’re going to pay a commission to the buyer’s agent. Thanks for bringing your buyers to us.” And if you don’t get the meme, this is Stevie Wonder from his “I just called to say I love you” video.

DATA FOR NINE COUNTIES FOR MAY 2025:

I tend to lump smaller counties into sixty-day chunks with the hope of at least getting some sort of a comparison. Some areas are down, and others are up. When there aren’t that many sales, the numbers can bounce around quite a bit.

MONTH TO MONTH:

YEAR-OVER-YEAR:

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Who do you think is going to blink first in today’s market? Buyers or sellers? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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A Back to the Future Housing Market

June 5, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

It’s a Back to the Future housing market right now. You remember the iconic movie, right? Well, sellers are stuck in the past and buyers are living in the future. Let’s talk about it. Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting PCAR
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

STUCK ANYWHERE BUT THE PRESENT

Don’t be Doc or Marty. Try to be present for today’s market. Too many sellers are stuck in the past thinking it’s still 2021, and I find buyers are stuck in the future expecting 2007 vibes. My advice? Be realistic about current market conditions. For sellers, let news of declining price metrics in some areas be motivational to get the price right, offer concessions, and get ahead of your competition. And for buyers, be patient for the right house and realistic about how much power you have.

THE SPRING MARKET PEAKED EARLY THIS YEAR

It’s still slightly early to share stats from May, but preliminary stats show two things: 1) Spring peaked early this year; and 2) It looks like we’re going to have some negative year-over-year price change in Sacramento. Prices are only preliminary, so I’ll report final numbers next week, but this is what we’ve been expecting. Keep in mind that Zillow’s home price index went negative for Sacramento in April (so did Homes.com). I’ll have a ton of stats and perspective next week on how the market showed a big change in the stats in May with so many metrics.

BUYERS ARE NOT LIKING UNCERTAINTY

We saw a real change in buyer demand starting in April (blue line). I don’t care if you’re red or blue, and this is not a partisan statement, but let’s not ignore that increasing economic uncertainty looks to be taking a toll on buyers.

SELLERS STEPPED BACK LAST MONTH TOO

While everyone is focused on weaker buyer demand, let’s talk about sellers too. New listings didn’t grow as much in May as they did in previous months. I’m not saying there is a trend here because we need more than one month of data, but my antennas are up. Is it possible some sellers could pull back in light of uncertainty too? Maybe. Only time will tell. If this does become a thing, it could help the pile of active listings not grow as quickly.

INVENTORY EXPLAINED WITH SKATEBOARD WHEELS

Here’s a reel I pushed out yesterday to explain the real estate market with skateboard wheels. I think this is a cool way to describe why active listings have been able to increase so much. And this goes along perfectly with what I’m saying. Let’s watch buyer AND seller behavior closely right now.

THE DOOM PERSPECTIVE IS FAR INTO THE FUTURE

I’ll admit I get bored with the housing doom perspective because it’s a one-trick pony with a singular sermon of fear. Death and destruction are coming. Yawn. Anyway, right now I find the doom narrative is gloating in victory and way ahead of the trend into the future. Prices are not crashing right now, and it’s not 2007 in the stats. Has the market changed? Yep. Let’s just be real about the numbers and keep things in context. It’s also important to have enough humility to know that nobody can perfectly predict the future.

DON’T BUILD A NARRATIVE ON ONE MONTH OF DATA

Some people might end up looking a bit silly. The truth is you don’t want to get one negative reading and then declare a new era is here. The funny part about stats is sometimes they bounce up and down. I saw one person in a different market talking about declines last month, but then the median price bounced back up this month. My advice? Talk about the numbers, but be careful of embracing a rigid narrative that doesn’t allow space for stats to bounce around (this is especially true of data in smaller counties).

PICKING AND CHOOSING THE HOTTEST STATS

Some people in real estate are cherry-picking stats right now. What I mean is if the median sales price is down, but the average sales price is up, then it’s all about gravitating toward whatever stat is up. My advice? Tell the story of the market without sugarcoating, and be careful about embracing a rosy seller-oriented narrative in a market where buyers are gaining power. Do you know what buyers and sellers need to understand? That prices have flattened and we have some budding downward price pressure.

COMPETITION ISN’T AT ZERO

There’s a disconnect right now with the housing narrative online and the actual market. In recent months, I’ve had some buyers even express frustration to me when talking about a flattening market with changing demand. “Bro, it’s really competitive when I’m trying to buy a house.” I pushed out some stats a few days ago to help talk about this. Here’s what the number of offers looks like by price point for May closed sales. Do you see how there is more competition at lower prices? Keep in mind this only represents sales. There are many listings with zero offers. Also, there is strong competition for properties that check all the boxes for price, condition, upgrades, and location. There is NOT strong competition for overpriced homes.

BE A PART OF THE MARKET THAT IS HERE

For my real estate friends, it’s all about connecting with people who have incentive to participate in the market. We’ve had $7.5 billion in price volume this year to date with nearly 12,000 closed sales in the wider region. Who is buying? Who is selling? Who is investing? Find those people.

CLOSING ADVICE FOR REAL ESTATE FRIENDS

Stay grounded. Be careful of sensationalism. Cultivate objectivity. Don’t treat high prices as sacred because they are not. Be in touch with buyers who want lower prices. Keep changing what you say about the market as the stats change. Expect more hesitancy from buyers and maybe even sellers as we start talking more about negative price stats. Try to get sellers ahead of their competition right now since there has been a sharper downward change in buyer demand. Run toward the challenge of the market, and keep finding ways to increase the size of your network. Stop doomscrolling. Find ways to unplug. Take care of your mental health (nobody else can do that for you).

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Are you seeing the Back to the Future dynamic? What stands out to you about today’s market? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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Obsession with the 2007 housing bubble

May 29, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

“It’s going to be 2007 all over again in the housing market.” That’s been the message now for five years. Today, I want to compare 2007 and 2025 for the sake of talking about the market. Scroll by topic or digest slowly. Where do you think we are on this continuum right now?

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting PCAR
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

By the way, did anyone else wear Obsession? This was my scent thirty years ago. A broker friend tells me this is what the clubs smelled like in the ’90s. Haha.

NOTHING WRONG WITH PRICES GOING DOWN

First off, there is nothing wrong with prices going down. I’m not writing to sugarcoat the market or say current affordability levels are healthy. This is about thoughtful analysis and maybe a good reminder to be careful about 2007 obsession.

2007 BUBBLE OBSESSION

The housing narrative online often compares today with 2007, and many people are expecting to see 2007 all over again because of that. I get it. But let’s back up and recognize 2007 wasn’t the only correction we’ve ever seen, which means it’s not the new template for every future correction either. Know what I’m saying? And yes, I made a Mean Girls meme, which is either a new career high or low. You decide.

Okay, let’s dig into 2007 and 2025. I’m unpacking the Sacramento market, but many areas show this same trend.

SUPPLY HASN’T BUILT LIKE IT DID IN 2007

We’re seeing much more housing supply lately, but it’s still nothing like 2007. Sometimes when I say this, people get bent out of shape thinking I’m sugarcoating, but we literally had five times more monthly supply back then. If anything, it seems like a comparison to 2007 is flippant rather than statistically similar.

There is no mistaking supply has risen though, and it’s been at about two months lately. On one hand, this is a historically normal number, but it’s been enough to flatten the trend and even get us some year-over-year negative price readings from indexes like Zillow and Homes.com. So, I wouldn’t say things like, “Supply is normal, so prices can’t go down.” That’s not real.

PRICES WERE ABLE TO EASILY CRASH IN 2007

Supply rose very quickly back then, which set the stage for rapid price change eventually. Monthly inventory began building in the summer of 2005, and over the course of one year, it literally tripled. The median price didn’t dip that much yet, but after a second year of huge supply gains through the summer of 2007, we saw a massive price crash. Granted, there were other things happening in the market at the time with fraud, adjustable-rate mortgages, and a deep recession brewing, but there is no mistaking there was a massive difference in supply back then that allowed for prices to crash.

Can you see why prices haven’t crashed today? We just haven’t had a huge spike in supply. Of course, we don’t need exact 2007 dynamics to see prices change, but a collapse hasn’t happened because the market has been way too tight.

If you predict something long enough, maybe you’ll be right eventually. Just don’t expect me to think you’re a certified prophet. I get bored when people try to suck me in to be afraid. That doesn’t do it for me. Here’s the kicker. What would happen if prices went down dramatically? Doomers would then start the fear cycle all over again to promote the next bubble. Yawn. On a serious note though, if you are perpetually afraid, that’s not a good outlook for life. Take better care of yourself.

DON’T EXPECT A 2007 EVENT WITHOUT 2007 VIBES

Look, prices can go down today even though we don’t have ten months of housing supply, but it’s hard to get a 2007-type crash with 2007 supply vibes. For instance, in the region we had about 10,000 more active listings back then compared to today’s levels. Could you imagine what that would do to prices today if we injected ten thousand extra listings?

2025 IS SIMILAR TO 2007 WITH A VOLUME CRASH

The number of sales fell off a cliff for 2.3 years between 2005 and 2007, and volume sharply returned afterward since prices went down so fast. Well, volume today has been subdued for three years now with only slight growth so far. Basically, we’ve had a prolonged 2007 volume crash over the past few years, but it hasn’t come with a price crash. I hear many people saying things like, “volume change precedes price change,” and I get that. But we have to concede that prices today have remained higher to date because we’ve had tens of thousands of sellers not list their homes. Thankfully, sellers are thawing out more lately, and that’s changing the trend, but it’s been quite a long volume drought. Unfortunately, we can expect for volume to continue be lower until there is a sharper change with affordability.

IT USED TO TAKE 90 DAYS TO SELL

It’s taking almost a month to get into contract today, which seems like forever compared to a few years ago, but it was taking three times longer to sell in 2007 and 2008. Look, we are no longer in a quick-moving juiced pandemic market, but days on market as a stat isn’t sensational today either.

And some more stats. What I like about this visual is it shows what’s happening with actives and pendings – not just sales.

COMPETITION IS SOFTER, BUT NOT 2007 SOFT

It’s no longer 2021 in the stats, but it’s also nowhere close to 2007 either. All we hear about today is about price reductions and properties selling below the original price, but how does this market line up with others? The truth is competition levels are actually pretty normal. However, if the market does continue to soften, I expect to see these numbers change and go above the pre-2020 norm. One thing to keep in mind is these stats only represent closed sales, and the trend is softer in the properties that aren’t selling.

NOT ALL CORRECTIONS ARE THE SAME

One of the big things to recognize today is not every recession or housing market correction will automatically be the same as the last one. Many people today are so fixated on what happened last time in 2007, but let’s back up and concede that 2007 isn’t the new template for every future market.

THE MARKET HASN’T LIKED UNCERTAINTY THESE PAST 2 MONTHS

Uncertainty has been on steroids over the past couple of months in light of tariffs and perceived worry about the future economy, and the housing market hasn’t liked it. Since early April in Sacramento, we’ve seen the number of weekly pending contracts dip below 2024 and 2023 levels. This is something to keep watching, and it’s important to remember that uncertainty can increase or fade. In other words, uncertainty ebbs and flows, and it doesn’t last forever. For instance, the blue line showed a slight uptick over the past week of data, and that’s positive for housing demand. By the way, this is not a partisan statement. It’s so hard to talk about anything relating to politics today, but let’s be open to discussion and give the White House praise or critique – whichever it deserves. And let’s keep watching what happens with tariffs, inflation, consumer confidence, the economy, and whether the Fed is going to cut rates or not. Last year we had a more vibrant second half of the year, and I’m eager to see if we have a similar pattern IF we actually get lower rates.

CLOSING ADVICE

Be a student of the housing market, keep changing your narrative as the stats change, be careful about conflating 2025 with 2007 when the stats aren’t the same, choose wisely who you listen to about today’s market, and cultivate objectivity to keep yourself from being swept away in sensationalism. One more thing. Here’s a great conversation about humility and predictions with Barry Ritholtz and Paul Krguman (thanks for the link Joe).

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? How is the market similar and different to 2007? I’d love to hear your take on things.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Home Appraiser

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