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Why your home isn’t worth 16% more today

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Home prices have been massive lately, but there is an asterisk. It’s easy to look at glowing stats and say, “Dude, prices are up 16%, so my house is worth 16% more.” But lofty county or regional price stats don’t always show up the same in a neighborhood. Let’s talk about this.

TWO REASONS WHY PRICES ARE SO HIGH ON PAPER:

1) The top & bottom: There have been more sales at the top of the market and fewer sales at the bottom. In fact, when comparing the past four months this year with last year, we’ve seen 20% fewer sales under $400,000 and 75% more sales above $750,000. Here is a brand new visual to show the change in various price ranges. If you’re not in Sacramento, is this happening in your area too?

The effect: Having a big change in volume at the lowest prices and a hefty change at the top has simply boosted price metrics. Thus on paper price stats are really high compared to last year, but when pulling comps in a neighborhood we don’t always see anywhere close to this sort of explosive growth. 

Here’s another way to look at the same data:

2) Larger homes: I’ve mentioned this before and I’m not trying to beat the dead horse, but during the pandemic buyers have been purchasing noticeably larger homes over the past four months. Do you see the spike? In short, having larger homes has boosted price stats, so when talking about growth it’s good to remember that part of the reason for higher prices is due to larger homes selling more often. 

The takeaway: There is no mistaking the market has increased in value quite a bit this year. I’m not saying it hasn’t. I’m just saying if we’re not careful it’s easy to get infatuated with lofty regional price stats which can sometimes blur our vision for a neighborhood market. My advice? Know why the numbers are the way they are and focus on comps instead of county or zip code stats. Moreover, don’t expect the market to be the same temperature with every location, price range, or property type.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Have you seen some neighborhoods where prices have risen greatly and others where growth is more subdued? Did I miss anything? Any stories to share?

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Six things to remember about crazy home price growth

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Price growth has been unreal lately in many parts of the country, but here are some things to keep in mind before pricing for the moon…

Six things to keep in mind:

1) County stats don’t translate perfectly: It’s easy to look at county or zip code stats and think, “Dude, my home is worth 14% more now because the median price is up by 14%.” But the market isn’t that rigid where price growth for a larger area applies equally to every parcel.

2) Picking and choosing: If we’re not careful we can pick and choose stats that benefit us the most. For instance, someone in Placer County this month could be tempted to focus on the region at 14% instead of Placer data at 6.4%. My advice? Look at all the stats instead of fixating on glowing numbers.

3) Larger homes are padding the stats: During these past few months we’ve seen buyers focus on noticeably larger homes, so it’s important to take this into consideration when interpreting huge price growth. At the least larger homes represent some of the heightened price growth lately.

4) Not every property type has the same trend: The truth is not every type of property is going to be showing the same price growth. Thus price trends could be different for vacant land, entry-level homes, the million dollar market, attached homes, 55+ communities, 2-4 units, commercial units, etc…

5) Hot Pockets: The real estate market is like a Hot Pocket taken out of the microwave a tad too early. Some portions are blazing hot while others are only warm or frozen. Like a Hot Pocket, we can say the real estate market is “hot” overall, but it’s definitely not the same temperature in every neighborhood or price range. For instance, the City of Davis seems to have very subdued price growth over the past couple of years, but East Sacramento has been a far different story with large increases. My advice? Price according to similar homes that are getting into contract rather than projecting zip code or county stats on a property.

6) It’s NOT all about prices: The question I get asked the most is, “What are prices doing?” I get it, but if we want to understand a real estate market it’s important to look to other metrics too like inventory, sales volume, days on market, SP/OLP ratio, etc.. Besides, sales are like historical artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like 30 to 60 days ago when these homes got into contract. If anything sales tell us more about the past than the present. If we want to understand the market right now it’s critical to see what’s happening with the listings and pendings (which will be future sales in about 30 to 60 days).

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

NEW VIDEO TUTORIAL: I made a graph last week to show the seasonal market and lots of people responded saying they’d like a tutorial. Here it is.

Thanks so much for reading my post today.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

MARKET SUMMARY: For anyone interested, here are some tidbits for social media, newsletters, or in case you want to win the real estate category on Jeopardy.

– We have 20 days of housing supply in the region

– There were 41% more multiple offers this September compared to last year

– Monthly inventory is lower than it’s been in 15+ years

– There are 53% fewer listings in the region right now (not a typo)

– Sac, Placer, Yolo, and El Dorado counties all have less than one month of housing supply. Each respective county is lower than it’s been in 15+ years.

– We saw the highest number of sales for September in Sacramento County in 11 years (since 2009).

– The million dollar market has grown this year in the region. 3.3% of homes have been above one million in 2020 compared to 2.5% last year.

– It took 9 fewer days to sell this September in the region compared to last year at the same time.

– Demand has increased dramatically lately from local buyers as well as Bay Area buyers. This is part of why we’ve seen heightened pending contracts, higher prices, lower inventory, more multiple offers…

– Normally the market at this time of year would be cooling more substantially by now, but the spring buying season has been sort of extended. Yet before saying it’s simply buyers making up for the sluggish pandemic market in the spring, let’s not ignore the power of low mortgage rates. It’s no coincidence we’re seeing a hyper-competitive market over the past 90 days as mortgage rates have gone below 3%.

– In the background it looks like sales volume and pending contracts are starting to flatten. I talked about this last week. Normally during the fall season we see a dip in all metrics. That really hasn’t been the case so far, but seeing volume flatten could lead to other metrics dipping at some point.

– So far this fall season reminds me of 2012 where the market was incredibly aggressive. Prices kept going up that fall, yet there was a hint of a normal seasonal trend too as there was a dip in sales volume. We’ll see what this fall holds. For now it’s anything but cold.

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

SACRAMENTO REGION:

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing out there right now? Anything else to add about prices?

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The aggressive & slowing housing market

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Insane. Crazy. Irrational. The housing market has been described this way in many places around the country lately. But in the midst of freakishly high demand there is still a seasonal rhythm to see in the background. Let’s talk about that.

Today’s post seems long, but it’s mostly images.

BIG POINT: Understanding what the market normally does throughout the year helps us give good advice, make plans, do a better job with valuations, and spot when something abnormal is happening.

WHAT DOES THE MARKET DO DURING THE YEAR?

Seven years in one graph? Yep. This visual looks at the average of seven years worth of sales for each month, so even though there is just one line we end up with a solid visual of how the market behaves throughout the year. This is so important because being a real estate expert involves lots of things, but one big factor is understanding how the market moves. 

Tutorial: I’m actually game to do a video tutorial on how to make this visual. If I get a number of people interested I’d be glad to do that. Let me know.

Here is 2020 showing an abnormal trend…

UPDATE: I think some people are caught on my title instead of what I am communicating in the body of this post. Look, the market is not soft. Prices have continued to rise and we’re having an abnormal fall season so far in many ways. Frankly, this fall is far more aggressive than it should be for the time of year. Yet sales volume is starting to flatten too, which is a sign of some slowing. That’s what the stats and visuals are indicating right now, so that’s the story we ought to understand and tell. When saying this though I think some people hear, “The market is dull,” but that’s not what I am communicating. The market is always changing and doing different things. Why can we not clearly and confidently say, “The market is white hot, but we’re also seeing sales volume slow down”?

NOT THE SAME:

Many markets have a similar pattern to the one above, but others look totally different because of weather, being a vacation destination, etc…

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: Here are a few things on my mind right now.

ANOTHER VISUAL:

Here’s a different way to look at sales volume. Check out this year in black compared to previous years. What is volume doing?

THE TAKEAWAY:

The black line shows sales volume looks like it hit its peak for the year a couple months ago, so even though we are calling this market white hot, we can still see a slowing trend creeping in the background. This doesn’t mean the market is dull (I didn’t say that). In short, this year we’re beginning to see a change in volume, but overall the fall season hasn’t been normal because by now prices are usually cooling off and it should be taking longer to sell rather than fewer days.

Okay, two more counties…

PLACER COUNTY & EL DORADO COUNTY

Check out the rhythm of the market in these two counties. This is a really good picture for how the market tends to behave through the year.

Now check out the black line. Do you see the increase lately? Like I said a few weeks back we’ve seen a huge influx of buyers in Placer & El Dorado County. In other words, the black line shows an abnormal amount of buyers lately. Also, we see what looks like a seasonal slowing of volume as the black line looks to be curving down.

Anyway, I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Thank you again for all of your support in my life these past months. I am fully back to work and doing my best to pace myself.

Questions: Do you think this fall we’re going to see a big slowing or barely any slowing? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

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Why is housing inventory so low?

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Housing supply is insanely low right now. It’s getting ridiculous. Why is it so low? Let’s make a list. Please add your take in the comments.

SOME REASONS WHY HOUSING SUPPLY IS LOW

1) Not listing during the pandemic: Sellers aren’t listing as often during the pandemic. This has been common in many markets across the country, and in Sacramento in particular where monthly inventory is down about 50% right now compared to last year.

2) More demand: Mortgage rates below 3% have caused buyers to jump off the fence and basically gut the market. Thus increased demand has depleted listing inventory (which was already low).

3) Lack of new construction: We’ve had population growth in the midst of anemic new construction since the housing bubble burst. In other words, we haven’t built enough units and we’re really beginning to feel the sting of it. Check out this visual from FRED to show housing starts today compared with 2005.

4) Shift in demographics: People are staying in their homes longer and therefore not selling as often. Last year Redfin published research stating owners are staying in their homes an average of thirteen years instead of eight years, which means there aren’t as many homes being listed for sale.

5) Increased migration: Some markets are seeing more buyers from outside the area flocking to the neighborhood. Lots of Californians of course are leaving the state and heading to Idaho, Nevada, Texas, and all the usual suspects, but who is coming to the market? There isn’t one definitive easy source to track migration unfortunately, but Bay Area buyers have seemed to have an increased focus on the region. In fact, LinkedIn recently published stats showing a 7.6% increase in net arrivals in Sacramento. 

6) Nowhere to go: Some owners would list but they feel there’s nowhere to go because homes are too expensive or inventory is too thin. 

7) Shift in home size: We’ve been building larger homes for decades now, which could eliminate the need for some folks to buy something else because they are satisfied and able to stay put. During the pandemic of course we’ve seen buyers target larger homes.

8) Other: Blackstone and investment funds purchase thousands of homes that have not resold on the open market. I wouldn’t say this is the reason inventory is thin, but it’s worth mentioning. We’ve also had wildfires in portions of California where homes have not been rebuilt.

9) Not a distressed market: We used to have more listings because of all the distressed sales, but we just don’t have that sort of market any longer. Bank-owned sales (REO) represent about 1% of all sales in Sacramento County as well as the region, and short sales are even rarer.

10) What else? Did I miss something? Please comment below.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What point stands out to you the most? Why is inventory so low right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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