Home Appraiser

Coronavirus & the housing market

March 3, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 26 Comments

The world probably doesn’t need another coronavirus real estate post, but here we are. Over the past week I’ve had countless conversations on the topic so I wanted to share some thoughts. How might the coronavirus affect the housing market? Here are some things to keep in mind.

Things to consider about the coronavirus & real estate:

1) Uncertainty: Markets don’t tend to like uncertainty. It’s been true in the stock market over the past week and it’s true in real estate also.

2) Severity matters: If this virus doesn’t spread much there might not be much effect on the housing market. But if it begins to spread in mass it’s easy to imagine sellers postponing listing their homes and buyers choosing to sit on the sidelines. Ultimately as we consider the immediate future there’s a huge difference between having a handful of coronavirus cases versus a devastating outbreak like the movie Contagion (probably not a helpful film to watch right now). Keep in mind if we’re dealing with something that ends up being very temporary it’s not likely to have a lasting effect.

3) Consumer behavior: One of the most relevant things to consider is whether the coronavirus starts to affect consumer behavior and confidence. No matter what you think about this whole thing, if people begin to postpone or halt financial decisions, that’s when it can begin to matter more for the economy and housing market. Let’s remember many buyers are already struggling with a feeling of hesitancy about the market, so for some the coronavirus could end up magnifying that feeling. Are consumers going to dine out fewer times? Will they stop buying stuff? Will they sit on the sidelines of the real estate market to wait and see what happens? We’re at the beginning stages of this and we’ll have answers to these questions over time. Obviously if there was a massive outbreak though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the housing market stall or decline. In case you wanted to follow consumer confidence closely, here is a source tracking it daily (found via Len Kiefer):

4) Swine Flu & Ebola: Someone asked if I had any market stats from previous decades when we dealt with SARS, Ebola, or Swine Flu. No, I don’t. The struggle with these examples is we didn’t have a local epidemic, so there wasn’t any real impact on the market.

5) The economy: One of the more gloomy elements to watch is the Chinese economy as well as our own. Some writers are talking about the potential for a worldwide recession in light of how tied the world is to China. That’s a sensational idea bound to get lots of attention. Is it real? We’ll see what happens.

6) Rates doing the limbo: In the midst of this we’re seeing mortgage rates drop and some are saying they’ll continue to dip. I’ve even heard claims they could drop below 3%. That would be insane!! So if anything it’s possible we could still have a very competitive real estate market in the immediate future. As a side note, it’s actually been an aggressive start to the year in terms of price growth in Sacramento and I’ll have more thoughts on that next week. For now buyers and sellers seem more focused on low rates than the coronavirus, but let’s keep watching because that could change.

7) Sifting data: Hopefully this will all blow over and we won’t have any worst-case-scenarios play out. If you want to watch real estate data though, be sure to pay attention to the number of listings and sales volume – not just prices. Remember, prices are the last place we see change show up even though it’s usually the first place we look. In other words, we see a market shifting first in consumer sentiment, what is happening with listings, whether homes are selling, and then eventually down the road with price changes. So like I always say, the trend happens before we see it in the prices.

8) Peace: On a personal note, I hope you find peace in coming time no matter what happens in the future. If you’re feeling stressed by all these conversations, maybe get intentional about filtering information and finding ways to add peace into your life.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you talking about in coronavirus conversations lately? What are buyers and sellers saying? Anything to add? What did I miss?

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Moving money, duplexes, & unicorns.

February 26, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 21 Comments

Moving money, duplexes, and unicorns. This sounds like a seriously boring blog post, but this is fascinating stuff and I hope you walk away with insight and maybe some ideas for where to focus business if you work in real estate. If you’re not local, are these trends happening in your market? I challenge you to find out.

Increasing 1031 Exchange Sales: Here’s an image to show all 1031 Exchange sales in the Sacramento region over the past two decades. In short, a 1031 Exchange is a way an investor basically swaps one property for another to minimize the tax burden. Often investors from outside a market will move money into a lower-priced market too, but that’s not always the case. Anyway, here are all 1031 Exchange sales on one graph. I know, there are way too many dots here. But do you see two main clusters? There were more sales in the last rising market cycle and there are more in today’s market.

I spoke with a 1031 Exchange guy and he echoed this is exactly the trend he is seeing out there. When a market is rising, investors tend to move money. I will say the stats here are not perfect because these are only sales where agents have input a 1031 happening. However, I believe most importantly we still have an accurate trend to see about the frequency of 1031s happening. For what it’s worth, about 85% of these exchanges were single family homes, so clearly investors wanting to park money in Sacramento aren’t just looking to the 2-4 unit market.

Brand new duplexes: This might not seem like a big deal, but here are four recent duplex builds in Sacramento. This hardly seems like a trend or worth mentioning, but being that there are literally about a dozen new duplex sales over the past ten years, it’s a big deal to see four right now. The good news for today is it’s possible in some situations to build a duplex and make the numbers work. We have a severe housing shortage in California too, so seeing more multi-unit properties is definitely something we desperately need.

Unicorn advice: If you are going to build a duplex, keep your costs down somehow and do something modern as it seems like units with a modern / contemporary feel are the ones selling at the top. Also, sometimes we see out-of-town investors pay more for two-unit properties. That’s a very real dynamic. Know that unicorn buyers are out there and when I see 2-4 unit properties sell for too much it’s often a Bay Area buyer (or 1031 Exchange). But be careful about pricing too high because that’s a quick way to get zero offers (seriously). My advice? Price for the market instead of the unicorn.

REGIONAL DUPLEX SALES: Here’s a quick look at two-unit (duplex) sales over the past two decades in the Sacramento region. I committed graph sin by not explaining “region” on the image (it’s Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado county). What do you see?

A DIFFERENT TREND: When looking at Midtown and Downtown there is clearly a different trend. The rest of the two-unit market hasn’t quite seemed to eclipse where prices were in 2005, but that’s absolutely not the case in Midtown. It just goes to show the market isn’t showing the same trend everywhere.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you about the images above? What have you noticed about the duplex market? Anything to add?

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Not getting distracted by outlier sales

February 5, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

It’s been a record-breaking couple of years. In New York we saw the highest residential sale ever in the United States at $238M. Then a couple months ago California got a new record with the Beverly Hillbillies mansion at $150M. And now there’s a listing in Bel-Air that just hit the market at $500M. The truth is it’s easy to get distracted by the bling of outlier sales because of how lofty the prices are, but here are a few things to keep in mind.

Price records: It’s not a price record unless it actually sells. In many cases higher-end sales are overpriced by hundreds of thousands of even millions of dollars. As an extreme example, that $250M listing finally closed for $94M after two years of aspirational pricing.

That “One” five hundred million dollar flip: Have you heard about that five hundred million dollar flip in Bel-Air? This property hit the market last week and it’s called “The One.” It’s said to be one hundred thousand square feet and it comes with a bowling alley, night club, and four swimming pools. This property has been talked about for years and it’s finally here. You can buy this one or here’s what you can get in Sacramento instead:

Price records in Sacramento this past year:

– Sacramento County $5M
– East Sacramento $3.8M
– Woodland $2.94M
– El Dorado Hills $3.9M

Growth at the top: Here are a couple visuals to show growth in the million dollar market over time in the Sacramento Region.

Sales over $50M in the United States: If you woke up wondering how many homes are selling above $50M in the United States, you’re in luck thanks to Jonathan Miller who tracks this information and let me share the image. There were twenty three sales above $50M last year in the country. On one hand we’ve definitely seen more sales lately, but this is still a really uncommon price point (probably because FHA financing isn’t available). 🙂

Now here’s some final commentary.

QUICK CLOSING THOUGHTS:

1) These sales don’t pull the market up: Outlier sales don’t pull the rest of the market up, and they have nothing to do with the entry-level market or affordability for the average person.

2) I just gotta have it: My observation with the highest sales is sometimes cash buyers offer prices that seem disconnected from what looks reasonable on paper. This doesn’t happen in all situations, but sometimes it does where the buyer simply says, “I just gotta have it.”

3) Not the new comps: Unless you have an outlier home, the highest sales in town aren’t the new comps. In other words, don’t price higher because of an outlier. What is similar and selling? That’s probably the better question.

4) They sometimes sell for less: What’s interesting is watching record-breaking sales list again after having sold a few years prior. Sometimes they sell for more, but in other cases they end up selling for less than their original purchase despite the rest of the market having risen since the purchase. This actually happened with two of the top ten sales ever in the Sacramento region.

5) A different trend: I was asked recently if you can look at what a high-end sale sold for years ago and simply apply the appreciation rate from the city or county to come up with the value today. Look, there are many ways to figure out value, but as an appraiser I’m more interested in comps today rather than giving too much weight to a previous sale. After all, a past sale might have sold for too much if it was a unicorn “gotta have it” type deal. I saw this recently with a home that ended up selling 25% lower than the original purchase six years ago despite the surrounding market having seen massive gains. In short, I’m cautious about applying county or zip code metrics to these high-caliber sales. It’s just a completely different market that may or may not follow the county trend. What will the current market bear? That’s the bigger question.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

CLASS I’M TEACHING: I’m doing my favorite class at SAR on Feb 18th from 9am-12pm called “How to Think Like an Appraiser.” Sign up here.

Questions: Why do you think people are so fascinated by lofty sales? What else have you observed about the high-end market? Anything to add?

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Horses aren’t allowed & a big market update

January 14, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

The other day a client asked me to include a statement in my appraisal that horses are allowed on the property. It was a huge lot, so it seemed like that might be okay… But I said NO for a very specific reason. Let’s talk about this and then for those interested let’s take a deep look at the local market.

A conversation with the city:

Me: Are horses allowed in the Tahoe Park neighborhood?

City: No. You need agricultural zoning for that to work. City of Sacramento code says: “It’s unlawful to keep, harbor, or maintain any bovine animal, horse, etc… on any parcel located in the city.” There are some locations that will work in the northern part of the city due to agricultural zoning, but not this location.

Me: What if it’s a really large lot though?

City: No. You need agricultural zoning.

Me: What if it’s an emotional support horse? (I wish I asked)

The point: On paper it might look like a horse property, but what does zoning allow? That’s the question. This is a good reminder to call the city or county to verify what is legally possible. To be fair owners can sometimes obtain a variance, but otherwise horses weren’t going to fly in this tract subdivision.

Class I’m teaching on Jan 16th: I’m doing a big market update at SAR from 9-10:30am. We’ll talk through the market, tips for talking to clients, and ideas for where to focus business. I’d love to see you there. Sign up here.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

A QUICK LOOK AT CONTENT

Recap of 2019
Loans & cash over the past decade
The number of sales in 2019 vs 2018
Distressed sales in Sacramento County
Sales above $1M over the past eight years
Sales below $100K over the past eight years
Sales volume “recovery”
Not a crash, but on the lower side
Price growth is slowing down
Comparing last year vs this year
Price Cycles
Housing supply is anemic
More visuals for surrounding counties

Scroll down to see what captures your interest. There are a number of new visuals too. I used a different format. What do you think?

DOWNLOAD 145 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

1) Recap of 2019: The year ended up feeling somewhat normal after a painfully dull last half of 2018 that left us wondering what would happen in 2019. Price gains were modest, there were slightly fewer sales compared to the prior year, and it typically took several days longer to sell in most counties (besides El Dorado taking over ten days longer). Here are some trends to watch in 2020.

2) Loans & cash over the past decade: These visuals are brand new and I hope you like them. Conventional financing has taken off this past decade, right? FHA used to be more common until conventional products began offering lower down payments. There was actually an uptick in FHA though this year, so let’s keep watching that. Cash sales are not a big factor in today’s market despite sellers thinking they are.

3) The number of sales in 2019 vs 2018: There were more sales at higher prices and less at lower prices. This makes sense for a market that showed upward price movement.

4) Distressed sales in Sacramento County: It’s astounding to think that 84% of sales in Sacramento County were distressed in early 2009, whereas now we have fewer than 1.5% bank-owned sales and 0.5% short sales. People keep asking me if we’re poised to see these numbers start increasing again. Technically there’s really no place to go but up since distressed sales have bottomed out. But I wouldn’t expect these to increase dramatically because there’s no mechanism in place right now that would trigger mass-distressed sales. There is not the ticking time-bomb of adjustable rate mortgages or an economic collapse. But if we had a devastating economic downturn or some other huge issue, that could change things. There are definitely voices that talk about a coming “wave” of distressed properties, but this wave has not materialized despite prophecies for many years. Granted, bank-owned sales are up very slightly this year, but it’s not statistically significant. I’ll keep you posted with any changes.

5) Sales above $1M over the past eight years: This is a fascinating way to look at the market. I know there are many colors, but here is the number of sales above $1M for each respective year. What’s the trend?

6) Sales below $100K over the past eight years: On the other side of the price spectrum, here are sales below $100K. There aren’t too many these days. I know, everyone wants to go back to 2012. But the problem is financing was hardly available back then to so many people who had a foreclosure or short sale on their record. So even though prices were right so to speak, financing wasn’t.

7) Sales volume “recovery”: We’ve begun to see sales volume come out of a funk as it was down for over a year. However, there’s an asterisk to this news because we’ve seen sexier volume over the past few months, but we’re also comparing these recent months to a REALLY dull season last year. So of course the numbers today look better. My advice? Take this news with a grain of salt and save rejoicing for the spring season if we see this trend continue.

8) Not a crash, but on the lower side: As I said above, we’ve been having a definitive sales volume slump since mid-2018, but lately volume has been stronger. The number of sales this year has basically been down about 3% or so from last year in the region, though when looking at the past five years we can see volume is down closer to 5% or so. But here’s the thing. Sales volume this year was still on the lower side of normal (and even higher than 2014 which was a dull year). This is a good reminder to look at stats in a wider context instead of having tunnel vision stuck on one or two years. For reference, when the market crashed in 2005 we saw a 40% drop in sales volume over one year.

9) Price growth is slowing down: Price growth has been slowing, which basically means prices aren’t rising as quickly as they used to. Though technically the monthly and quarterly data below show higher price growth this year. Does that mean the market has been more aggressive? Has it begun to rebound? Not necessarily. I recommend being hesitant about sharing this positive-sounding news because the market was REALLY dull last year. Thus when we compare monthly and quarterly numbers today with dismal stats from 2018 it can really inflate the figures.

10) Comparing last year vs this year: All year long most price metrics have been up about 2-4% each month compared to last year, but these past three months they’ve been higher. This is likely due to stats sagging last year during a dull 2018 fall season. I know, I keep mentioning that. Additionally, mortgage rates went down a few months ago and we’re likely seeing some of the effect of that.

11) Price Cycles: Markets go up and down. That’s just what they do. Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. Do you see the price deceleration in this current cycle? Also, in El Dorado County I pulled my stats just two days ago and the median price was down 0.1% instead of at 0% in my recap image above (that’s why the numbers are slightly different).

12) Housing supply is anemic: There isn’t much on the market right now, so buyers are hungry for good product. Remember, the spring market usually comes alive in the sales stats by March, but this means the market really started to move in January and February when these sales from March got into contract. Anyway, inventory looks to be mirroring what we saw a few years prior to last year’s dull season as you can see in the image directly below. There should be more homes hitting the market in coming months if we have a normal seasonal rhythm. Sellers, there’s nothing wrong with listing in January or February either. If you sense demand is there and especially if rates go down, you’ll have a captive audience.

13) More visuals: I know, there are too many visuals already. But here’s more. I never post them all either, so check out the download if you wish.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 145 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Questions: What stands out to you about the market last year? What are you seeing right now? Anything to add?

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