What’s January going to be like in 2025? What can we expect ahead for the housing market? Today, I have three quick points, and while these visuals are specific to my area, some of the language use can be used in many different markets. This is my last blog post of 2024. Thanks for being here!!!
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
12/18/24 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks
1/15/25 Mike & Joel Event (free online (register Eventbrite))
1/16/25 Sac Real Producers event (details TBA)
1/22/25 Windermere El Dorado Hills / Folsom (private I think)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
1/31/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
2/18/25 Travis Credit Union TBA
3/6/25 Yolo Association YPN Event
3/12/25 Windemere Sierra Oaks
3/20/25 HomeSmart iCare Realty (private I think)
4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (details TBA)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
5/8/25 Private event (details TBA)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
SWEET 16 BLOG PARTY IN JANUARY: YOU’RE INVITED
My blog is turning 16, so it’s a good excuse to bring people together. I’d love to have you there. If you feel connected to me, you’re invited. Please RSVP.
THREE THINGS TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
Some quick thoughts about the market in January with brand new visuals.
1) BUYER DEMAND HEATS UP IN JANUARY
Some people act surprised that the housing market heats up in January, but it’s sort of what happens every year. Check out this visual. Pending contracts hit their low in December, and start to rise again in January. Like clockwork. Of course, January is the second lowest month of pendings after December, and buyer attention picks up more in February, and then really grows in March.
Here’s a cool way to think about buyer demand through the year. Keep in mind not every county and property type are going to rigidly follow the exact regional pattern. I like to say the spring market is the hottest between the Super Bowl and Mother’s Day. What do you think of that?
2) BUYERS WAKE UP MORE THAN SELLERS AT FIRST
A good way to describe the market in early January is buyers tend to wake up before sellers. In other words, buyers are much more ready to pull the trigger, but sellers are still hibernating and planning to list later in the spring. This is why buyers often feel frustrated in early January because supply is basically leftover stuff that didn’t sell during the fall and a trickle of new listings. “Where the heck is the good stuff?” That’s the question. Look, there is no mistaking sellers start to list more after the low in December, but January is the third slowest month behind November and December. We just don’t see new listings really hit their stride until March.
3) THE TREND SHOWS UP LAST IN CLOSED SALES
If you’re hyper-focused on closed sales, you’re going to be late to the party of seeing the trend. Let me explain. Closed sales almost always bottom in January, but those sales represent properties that got into contract in December. So, the trend happened first in the pendings, and we saw it eventually in the sales about a month later. The same dynamic happens with price change, whether up or down. The change happens fist in the pendings, but it takes a month or two before seeing higher or lower prices in actual closed sales. This is why in February it feels like the market is getting hotter when we’re looking at the pendings, but closed sales from most of January probably don’t reflect February heat yet. Like I always say, sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like probably 30 to 60 days ago when they got into contract. What is the market like right now? Well, let’s look at actives and pendings. And eventually what we see there will show up in the sales.
I hope this was helpful.
THANK YOU
Thanks so much for reading my blog. I appreciate your insight, questions, critique, support, and all the opportunities and business you sent my way this year. I can’t wait for 2025. I’m optimistic about life and business, and I’m pushing all my chips forward again to bet on good relationships. Let’s grow together. From my family to yours, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
Questions: Any fun plans for the holidays? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers in your sphere?
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Blog post published Monday night at 8? It must be the holidays! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Ryan. Looking to the party. Can I get your blog anything?
Here’s hoping for more transactions in 2025.
Haha. Yep, I had to get this out. My blog doesn’t need anything. I’m pretty sure blog years are like dog years anyway, so my blog is super old and has accumulated a ton of stuff through the years. 🙂 Looking forward to lots of convos in 2025.
Sweet 16, I remember when your blog was just a toddler. The time goes by so fast. Thank you for all the great analysis. I’ve seen it in the stats, but never really thought about buyers waking up before sellers in the start of the season.
Thank you so much, Gary. Yeah, I hope this word picture resonates. It’s been my experience that agents on social media in January especially are like, “who has something coming up? I have a buyer looking for XYZ…”
A lot of talk right now in Washington about Trump team taking Fannie Mae private, and having the federal government subsidize the FHA market rate. Bringing rates down for FTHB for affordability. Several large publicly traded home builders that offer a financing arm are meeting with the feds in the first quarter of 2025 on plan out how to streamline this
Thanks. Yeah, we’ll see what happens there. I’ll have to do more reading on that. I suspect it’s going to take more than just the Trump team to get these things through. It’s a bummer to watch so many prospective buyers are the sidelines. It’s a healthy housing market when buyers and sellers can participate.
Love the idea and wondering if next year you should hold it at a local skate park but with emergency medical teams standing by!
Haha. Hey, now that seems like a great idea. I will say it’s on my 2025 list to drop 20 pounds and re-learn kick flips. But that’s probably not something I should do (the skating part). 🙂
Always fantastic information that’s easy to read through the graphs. Love the comical imagery as well! Have a Merry Christmas spent with your family and friends and I look forward to chatting with you on January 22nd.
Thank you so much, Jeff. I appreciate the kind words. It’s always a huge compliment when someone says it’s easy to read. That’s the goal. And looking forward to having you at the party.