Flat. That’s been a good way to describe prices, and today I want to show you why I’m saying that. And it’s not just me because the overwhelming feedback from real estate agents and homeowners is that prices have really leveled off. What words are you using to describe the market right now? Let’s talk about it.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
2/19/25 NARPM (private)
3/6/25 Yolo Association YPN Event
3/12/25 Windemere Sierra Oaks
3/20/25 HomeSmart iCare Realty (private I think)
4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (details TBA)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
5/8/25 Private event (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
YES, I DID A KICKFLIP
My wife wasn’t a huge fan of this goal, but it was on my radar to re-learn how to do a kickflip this year. Well, I posted a video of a really clumsy kickflip, but this just has to count since I’m no longer a spring chicken.
HORIZONTAL IS THE VIBE
Here are a bunch of visuals from recent appraisals and presentations. Do you see how prices have gone more horizontal lately after blatant increases in previous years? This doesn’t mean there isn’t some upward pressure in some areas and price ranges, but there is no mistaking we’re far removed from a market like 2021 with rocket ship increases. Oh, and sorry if you hate scatter graphs. I’m a one-trick scatter graph pony in this post.
ARE PRICES GOING TO RISE IN THE SPRING?
Like I said last week, we are poised to see price metrics increase from January to February as we almost always do. We’re seeing higher-priced pending contracts that are larger in size, so it won’t be a shocker to see higher price metrics in February at the least. No matter what, we’re not poised to see huge increases though since supply has been growing more than demand and rates have been stubborn around 7%. By the way, I saw this Miata in Fair Oaks recently. All I’m saying is it’s on my bucket list to get a ride in this badboy (yes, I’m using my platform to bum a ride).
BUT AREN’T YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS UP?
To piggyback on what I said last week, price metrics were up 4% to 5% in the region in January compared to one year ago, so it seems like a real disconnect to say prices simultaneously feel flat. I realize this sounds like a contradiction, but there are a few things to keep in mind. First, homes were larger this year compared to last year, which can naturally lead to higher prices on paper this year. Second, we’ve seen more higher-priced units selling, and that can make a difference in the numbers. Moreover, traditional metrics like the median or average sales price suggest being up by 4%, but Zillow’s index suggested 2% in December. Let’s be real. Something like 2% can be pretty hard to see at times in the comps since that’s minimal change.
A WORD TO BUYERS ABOUT COMPETITION
It’s easy to hear a word like flat, and think there is no competition, but let me clarify. Overpriced units are sitting, but the good stuff definitely has competition. These days buyers are very picky about price, location, and condition, so when a well-priced home in good condition hits the market, there can be multiple offers. Yet, there are plenty of pendings that only get one offer too, so the dynamic isn’t the same in every escrow. Some stats though. 31% of pendings in February in the region got into contract in seven days or fewer, which reinforces my words here about the good stuff moving quickly. The thing I especially like seeing though are properties at 100+ days getting into contract (likely after a price reduction). 27% of pendings in February were on the market for more than one hundred days before a pending status. So, don’t be afraid to target an overpriced listing if the seller is willing to come down. Stats based on Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado (SFR detached units (no condos)).
Thanks for being here.
NOTE ON COMMENTS: I know the captcha is not working perfectly for everyone. If you open up a new browser and go to my blog, that should solve the issue. I think it’s been a problem for some when people click directly on the blog link from my weekly email. My apologies. I am getting an absurd amount of spam comments, so I had to put a captcha on here.
Questions: How would you describe prices? Anything else to add? What did I miss?
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Flat sounds like a great way to describe the market. With the comments, what I found is if I click on the blog from my email, I could never leave a comment without doing it a couple times. If I come strait to the blog by using your saved webpage link and I’m really good at math that day :-D, the captcha works the first time.
Thank you Gary. And I appreciate the tip also. I really need to make time to figure this out, but I appreciate the insider tip here.
Ryan,
Great stuff as always. I’m seeing things the same way. If inflation is 3%, 4% appreciation is stable.
Opening the blog link in my native browser helps with the Captcha problem.
Thank you so much Joe. I really appreciate it. Yeah, that’s a good way to look at it too with inflation.
DUUUUDE!
You gotta make an animated gif of your kickflip, for making memes!
Haha. It was pretty funny to post it this week. Lots of comments of support and concern.
One trick scatter graph pony – hilarious!
I think the market is flat too, but I call it a bi-polar market: a house sells super fast with multiple offers or it sits for awhile. IMHO.
Right on Mike. I agree with that. I find it’s either multiple offers or crickets. 100% true today.
Enjoyed the kickflip video! Glad your wife is ok with you doing it inside the kitchen. Thanks for the captcha work around!
Just want to say I appreciate your regular data driven insights. I tell my sellers: Buyers want a move in ready property.
Thank you for the kind words. Totally agree about a “move-in” property. My garage does look like a kitchen with the cabinets. Haha.
I’ll take you for a ride in my Miata. 🙂 70 degrees next weekend! And yeah, I think it’s been flat since late spring 2022, with seasonal bumps and waves. I keep watching inventory to see if it’s a sign that prices will weaken, but they seem stable for now.
That sounds fun. We should do that (and a walk soon). Yeah, inventory is not really imbalanced. It seems like we’re at a place where prices have gone more horizontal. What happens with rates is a big factor because that can either bring more buyers or cause more sitting.
Oh, also, if I just reload the page, captcha works. But I copy my comment first in case it gets erased in the reload.
Thank you. And I’m so bummed that people are even doing that (but grateful that it happens). I’ll have this figure out eventually.
I had an interesting experience. I have a listing with an accepted sales price slightly lower than our asking price. After the inspections were done, I asked the buyers agent what the buyers intentions were. He said the buyers were discussing this with their LENDER to see what they should ask for as a credit/price reduction. Nothing to do with repairs…just what price they wanted to ultimately pay for the house. Obviously, it fell out of escrow. After 30 years, this was a new one for me.
Thanks Paula. Hmm, interesting. Seems like the buyer could have maybe offered lower in the first place if that was the intention.
in East Texas its a varied animal with heavy emphasis on school district leading pricing but also holding steady for longer.
I track it randomly and post that data on a regular basis.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19xYQepeRj/
its for sure bipolar. it either sells with multiple offers or sits.
Anyone want to buy some duplexes?
Thank you Mark. That’s a good way to put it. Either lots of attention or none. Great job putting out data too. I just “liked” your post. I wish more appraisers would do that.