Are first-time buyers really forty years old now? This stat went completely viral over the past few months, but there are serious questions about accuracy. Let’s talk about this AND why it matters. I’m a bit late to addressing this, but this narrative won’t go away on social media, so I wanted to write something. I’ve been talking about this in recent presentations, and I find most people are shocked at the details.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
1/21/26 Toll Brothers event (private)
1/22/26 DJ Lenth event (private)
2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR
FIRST-TIME BUYERS ARE NOW 40 (ACCORDING TO NAR)
Stats from the National Association of Realtors look stunning. There has been a dramatic increase in the age of buyers. I guess it sounds true that first-time buyers could be forty since affordability has been such a problem, but check out the methodology and other stats sources below.
THE STATS ARE BASED ON A SURVEY WITH 6,000 RESPONSES
I’m a fan of surveys, but I’m not convinced just over 6,000 responses is cutting it here. Besides, who the heck fills out a 120-question survey these days? The only way I would maybe do it is if there was a $50 gift card attached to the survey (and boxes to check (not write-in)).
OTHER SOURCES SHOW DIFFERENT STATS
The biggest problem here is other sources don’t support the narrative NAR is putting out there. The Mortgage Bankers Association shared this chart last month, and check out five other sources that tell a different story than NAR stats. Look, I can’t really say who has the best methodology here, but NAR is a clear outlier, so I think we have to question the results. I’m choosing to not share the NAR stats in any presentation because I don’t feel confident in the data. In short, it looks like mostly everyone else shows first-time buyers are 32 and 33 years old.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
Stats can form narratives, so we have to get the stats right to be sure the narrative is right. And at the moment, we’re seeing an avalanche of attention on first-time buyers being forty for the first time, and that doesn’t look legit. The truth is affordability is awful right now, so I’m not sugarcoating, but let’s not share stats that look unsupported. Also, this stat feeds into lots of hopelessness and negativity relating to the housing market, and that’s not a good thing when younger people believe narratives based on seriously questionable data. My advice? Be realistic about the numbers, but don’t inflame negativity from inaccurate information.
Thanks for being here.
Questions: How old are the first-time buyers you’re seeing? What stands out to you in this post? I’d love to hear your take.
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Two hall of fame memes in the same post? 2026 is off to a roaring start!
Thank you, Joe. I can’t wait to share these memes in a presentation tomorrow. 🙂
I love that you’re always questioning the stats. Thank you. It reminds me of the old NAR stat that shows homes sell for more when listed by an agent, but it just compares average or median price and does not account for more higher priced properties using agents to sell.
Thanks, Gary. You know, when some stats aren’t up to par, it makes us question other ones sometimes too.
Hi Ryan. I always love your info and especially the graphs and pics. For some reason, I’m unable to view the graphs and pics in this blog. Was this sent in a different format? Maybe it’s because I’m computer illiterate. LOL
Thanks, Jeff. Hmm, that’s always so weird. Everything should be present. I see the images right now. Maybe it was a momentary slow internet moment? I will say I’m trying to update my weekly email to include the entire post there, but Mailchimp has been tough for me to figure out (hopefully soon). Fingers crossed this issue here works out.
I guess it depends on location, location, location. Here in Southern California, yes, buyers are 40. But in other states where real estate is not an investment but rather for those who want to live in it, the age is in the 20’s.
So because I’m in SoCal, I won’t stop spreading the truth. And soon, that 40 age may soon creep up higher here. I predict at some point, people will ask themselves, why bother if things like excessive taxation added to the property tax bill, high prices and high insurance don’t change.
Thanks. And yeah, we could see different results in different areas. No joke. Overall though, there is serious critique about these stats and the methodology, so I don’t personally think we can rely on this NAR dataset. I’m curious if you have a stat source you’re relying on for age in SoCal. I could see how it could be higher due to affordability, but are there actual stats or gut feeling / experience?
The older I get the less I can tell how old anybody is! ?
If they are 30 they feel my age, if they arev60 they feel my age…
Haha. Very relatable. I don’t like to play the age guessing game because it’s hard to tell. The one thing for me is nobody is guessing I’m 25 anymore though. What the heck?
Good points. I love reading your opinions based on lots and lots of data.
Thank you, Brian. I really appreciate it. This is such a big narrative online, and it’s been so widely adopted as objective truth. Let’s critique it though.
Ryan, You have such great info! Orange & LA County need you!
You are too kind. Thanks, Marcy. Love me some Orange and LA County (my OG stomping grounds growing up). Hope you are doing very well.
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Who Qualifies as a First-Time Home Buyer? | Programs 2025
To qualify as a first-time home buyer, you typically must not have owned a primary residence in the past three years, and you may need to meet specific financial criteria and documentation requirements.
General Qualifications
Definition of a First-Time Home Buyer: You are generally considered a first-time home buyer if you have not owned a primary residence in the last three years. This includes individuals who have previously owned a home but have since sold it and are now looking to buy again.
2
Eligibility Scenarios: You may still qualify as a first-time buyer if:
2 Sources
You are a single parent who previously owned a home with a former spouse.
You are a displaced homemaker who has only ever owned a home with a spouse.
You owned a mobile home not attached to a permanent foundation or a home that did not meet local building codes.
– Details… “First time home buyers… most think this means they never owned a hope. but this is not accurate.
Carol, this is great commentary to complement the post. I appreciate you pitching this in. Fascinating points at the end that I didn’t know, so thanks. And you are so right about the details of having not owned for three years. I do wonder how many would fall into that category who are now buying again. I imagine that’s hard to gauge. Maybe someone has cracked the code though. After the carnage of the foreclosure crisis though, we saw many “first-time buyers” again after having gone through a foreclosure or short sale.
Both my sons are first time home buyers in 2025. 29 and 30 years old.
That is so cool, David. I’m excited for my kids to buy one day. Proud parent moment, I’m sure.
Well, I had first time buyers in 2025 who were 65. It was the same except that the questions were much better. They had everything to lose. The contract and the escrow process took longer (lots longer), but it has already rewarded me with another family listing. I would ask people to go through this carefully for you as well. 40, 60, 20? You will slow down and learn too. In a world of docusign, you can forget things, and the constant revamp of the contract can cause you to not be as informed as you should be.
Love it. This is so great, Debra. Thanks for sharing. Sounds like you handled this situation perfectly. Buyers are picky about getting into contract and staying in contract. There is so much guidance that happens throughout the buying process from real estate agents. And nothing replaces really good guidance (and not being pushed into anything).
This survey struck a nerve with me as well and I agree with your analysis and conclusions. However, I have been on the on the NAR Real Property Valuation Commiottee for 2 years and I forwarded this to a Senior Policy Representative to get some comments. They were very appreciative of me sharing it with them. Following is the response:
Thanks again for sending this over Pierce. Below is a synopsis of what I’ve learned, but NAR published some info on how we conducted this research here: https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/how-nar-research-collects-first-time-buyer-data-and-why-it-matters
MBA, AEI and CRA stats are based on mortgage data. If the buyer inherits their home or uses cash, it doesn’t show up in their data.
That’s the difference. NAR asks about cash and inheritance and that data shows a jump in FTB using inheritances.
So, those FTBs who are using mortgages are putting down higher down payments and higher credit scores. NAR shows this as well but also growing cohort of FTBs who are older and using inheritances. Thus an older group that has been locked out for years are entering. The story of the haves and have nots is real.
Note that this void between NAR and mortgage based stats will grow as boomers move on. And if the capital gains tax is doubled this could accelerate the trend.
Finally on the survey methodology, it is interesting that NAR has been conducting this same survey for years and the availability of ways to take it have only grown over time. Although it is a small number of respondents, it is a real change from the responses received historically, indicating a representation of what is really happening. No survey is perfect, but our expanded data sources and repeated methodology makes our results more reflective of what is happening out there.
I appreciate it. I can see how these details can matter. I guess we have to wonder what happened though in this dataset over the past four years. Why did NAR data depart from the rest of the pack in 2022 when it was in sync with everyone else before? What changed? I get the point about cash, but I’m also skeptical that those numbers are so high to skew the results like this (I could be wrong). NAR quoted 8% of first-time buyers used cash, but where does that stat come from? Is it from this same survey of 6,100 people? I’m not anti-NAR here, but I think it’s good that we have discussions like this and critique the narrative. Something doesn’t smell right here. To your point though, we can get different results when measuring things differently. Yet, who fills out a 120-question survey too? Do we have access to the age group that filled this out? Now that would be very interesting to see the age span of respondents.
One more thing. It’s interesting that having more cash buyers would account for about a 20% change here in the age. If there are 8% more cash buyers on top of the mortgaged buyers, we have to assume not all of them are older, right? So, let’s just say 5% of these represent older cash buyers which could affect the numbers. So, if we had 5% more buyers on top of the dataset (or even 8%), do we get a median number that is now 21% higher than other sources (40 vs 33)? This is where I’m struggling to see how the extra buyers make that much of a difference. I’d love to see NAR push out some math to see how they arrived at everything here. I would think older buyers would skew the average more than the median.
Ryan, you are such a blessing to us all!
Thanks, Tamara. I hope you are doing really well.