patient buyers

Dear Buyers,

Can we chat? I’ve been having SO many conversations about buying in today’s market, so I wanted to stir some thoughts and maybe offer some perspective. I hope this will be helpful.

Things to keep in mind about buying a home right now:

Starter home vs dream home: We all want that pristine HGTV flip, but we can’t expect a dream home on a starter budget. In other words, a first home might not have the best upgrades or condition and it probably won’t be found in the best neighborhood either.

Be realistic: Sellers are prone to overprice and that’s their glaring real estate “sin” so to speak, but for buyers I’d say being unrealistic about what you can buy is a big issue. The dream is to pick up a $150,000 brand new modern home in Midtown, but that’s nowhere close to reality. At times it can be sobering to see what you can honestly afford, but if you’re serious about buying it’s best to get up to speed with that. You don’t want to be like Jim Carrey in Dumb & Dumber saying, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” No, there’s not a chance to buy that house with your budget.

It’s okay to be picky and patient: Buyers get flack today for being patient. My sense is buyers are picky about getting into contract at the right price and staying in contract. That’s okay and I think you’re wise for being discerning rather than making a flippant decision (like many of us made in 2005). So take your time rather than being hasty. Just be sure you’re realistic that the home you want actually exists in your price range.

Waiting for the market to crash: Quite a few people say they are waiting for the market to crash. The idea is to hold out until prices are low and then swoop in for something cheap. But if a market implodes you might not be able to buy. The temptation is to talk about a crash as if it’s isolated without any effect on income, jobs, consumer confidence, credit scores, etc… But a crash in prices could mean other parts of the economy and life are plummeting too.

The last implosion: There is real concern about buying at the top of the market and I understand why buyers are hesitant. Just remember the implosion that happened last time isn’t the new formula for every future market change. On one hand it’s normal to see prices go up and down, so we can expect to see prices decline at some point because that’s what markets do. But the severe collapse during the last decade isn’t the new template for the future either.

Timing a market perfectly is hard: It sounds easy to time a market perfectly and buy at exactly the right time, but it’s not so easy to pull off in real life. In my experience most people buy because of lifestyle and being able to afford the mortgage payment rather than being technical about where we’re at in a price cycle. I don’t say this to gloss over a growing lack of affordability or frothy prices in some markets, but only to share a real issue. Your lifestyle is likely to be the trump card here. Where do you want to live? What school district do you want for your kids? Or if the market did decline, where do you want to ride it down? (my friend Mike Gobbi asks this honest question). Realize there is no right time for everyone either. I say it’s best to weigh your goals and lifestyle with current market trends. Does buying make sense for your lifestyle and wallet? If the market did go down, would you still be comfortable with the monthly mortgage payment? Those are reasonable and honest questions.

Bring a strong offer: If you are playing the market, bring a strong offer rather than lowballing. I just saw a Realtor on Facebook talking about a client who wanted to offer at 50% of the list price. Yeah, don’t do that. We all know sellers are smoking pricing crack and they need to come down from their “high” expectations, but at the same time sellers are in tune enough to sniff out offers that have no chance.

Fear of missing out & pressure: I recently spoke with a young man who just graduated college and wants to get into real estate. He asked me for advice since he was worried about missing out on the market if he didn’t buy right now. I told him: “Do what you want and be sure you can afford the mortgage. If you can though, get aggressive first about paying down student debt so you have more freedom for future real estate opportunities.” I mention this because there is often pressure to buy RIGHT NOW when in fact timing might not be right for every individual. For this recent grad, I’ll respect whatever decision he makes, but he won’t lack opportunities in the future if he doesn’t buy now.

Pulling the trigger: At some point you have to decide if buying is right for you. I’ve watched friends obsess over prices for years and become paralyzed in making a decision because they’re so worried about the future. Look, either do it or don’t. That’s entirely up to you and there’s no pressure from me. But my hope is for you to come to a place where you have confidence and peace about your decision rather than being anxious for years without any progress.

Talk to a loan officer: Some people can afford the market but they don’t realize it because they haven’t explored options with a professional. This is why the first step is talking to a reputable loan officer. Find out about different financing options and special programs that might be available. Remember, we don’t live in a world where everyone has to bring 20% to the table either.

Prophets: Everyone has ideas about the future, but nobody really knows what will happen. I’m not saying to ignore trends or red flags, but only to be humble about predicting. Also, realize many who make predictions simply move their prophecies to the next year when they don’t come true.

Other: What am I missing? Please speak up in the comments.

That’s my two cents. I hope it was helpful.

Questions: Buyers, any stories to share? Is there any helpful advice here? What are you most concerned about? What am I missing? Anything to add?

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There’s lots of focus on how home prices have changed since the previous “bubble”, but let’s talk about how buyers have changed. Here’s some observations. What else have you noticed?

1) More picky: During the previous housing “bubble” buyers seemed so desperate to purchase that they pulled the trigger on about anything, but they’re much more discerning these days. Of course let’s remember underwriting has changed dramatically though too. In the past many properties flew through the loan process without hardly any scrutiny, but lenders today are incredibly strict, which has certainly propelled a more picky feeling in the market.

2) More patient: Despite a housing shortage buyers aren’t willing to pull the trigger on junk. They’re simply more patient for the right house and they want to make an informed purchase (and even feel like they’re getting a good deal where possible too).

3) More informed: Just as the “bubble” began to pop we had companies like Zillow and Redfin coming to the forefront. Well, now they are household names and buyers are basically obsessed. Seriously, buyers scour these sites day and night, and they know about every single new listing, price reduction, and sale. This doesn’t mean buyers don’t make value mistakes still, but it does mean they are more informed than EVER about prices. At the same time, guess who is not looking at Zillow as much? Sellers. This is a huge issue because it means sellers are not as in tune with the market these days, which means they’re prone to overprice.

4) Financial mistakes: Buyers remember the pain of financial turmoil in the past, so they’re sensitive to repeating mistakes. For instance, I talked with a buyer considering purchasing the highest-priced listing in a neighborhood, but he’s concerned we’re at the top of the market. This buyer asked, “If a buy right now and the market turns, would it be possible I’d have to hold on to the house for 10 years before values come back?”

5) Higher expectations about condition: These days buyers have higher expectations about homes being in good condition. In other words they are much more picky about properties that are not in “move-in” shape or upgraded. Wait, there aren’t granite counters? What the? There could be many reasons for this, but I think heightened investor flipping activity played a huge role. In a fairly short period of time investors had a gluttonous real estate feast by purchasing an avalanche of bank-owned homes, rehabbing them, and selling them. This helped quickly upgrade the housing stock, and also widen the price gap in some areas. What I mean is values used to be very tight together as you can see in the graph below, but now the price spectrum is simply wider since buyers are willing to pay more for rehabbed homes in today’s market. I’m not saying this dynamic is in every neighborhood, but I definitely see it in quite a few areas.

6) Less cash-out refinances: Everyone and their Mom had a boat before the “bubble” burst because people were using their house like an ATM to buy toys. Well, today we don’t have that dynamic (image from Leonard Kiefer). Home owners are clearly cashing out less, which makes them sound financially wise, but let’s realize lending guidelines have changed to make it more difficult to ATM your house. Moreover, many owners are sitting on 3% interest rates, so why the heck would they trade pulling out cash for a much higher rate?

NOTE: I updated this post with “more informed” above after Peter left a stellar comment (thanks). This is such a big point. I can’t believe I didn’t mention it while writing this, but it didn’t come to mind at the moment. The irony is I’ve been talking about this in other posts and in person so much lately. Ha. Well, it’s fixed now.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: A few days back I did a screencast to talk through trends. Lots of people are wondering if the market is tanking or softening, so I wanted to pitch in two cents. Well, the video is actually 20 minutes (there’s lots to say). Anyway, give it a view if you’d like here (or below).

SPEAKING GIGS: If you’re around, I’m doing a blogging class on October 11th at SAR. I’ll be speaking at the AI’s 2018 Fall Conference in San Francisco on October 19th and AppraiserFest in San Antonio on Nov 1-3.

Questions: What else do you think has changed about buyers since the “bubble” burst? Any stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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