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price cycle

How much have prices risen since the bottom of the market?

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Crazy price growth. That’s what the market has seen lately. But let’s take a step back to look at how much growth has occurred since the market bottomed out in 2012. With so much talk about rapid price appreciation lately, I figured this would be interesting. Enjoy if you wish.

DOWNLOAD TEMPLATE FOR YOUR AREA: I created a template to help anyone quickly make charts like this. Download HERE. See video for how to make these too.

QUICK POINTS:

1) Huge growth: In many areas of Sacramento we’ve seen $300,000+/- price growth since January 2012, which was the bottom of the market in our area. Remember, just because the median price rose by $300,000 or so since 2012 doesn’t automatically mean your home is worth that much more.

2) Not adjusted for inflation: These stats are not adjusted for inflation. If you want to adjust them, by all means please do so.

3) Limitations: I didn’t include every area locally because I don’t have time, but most importantly if there aren’t enough sales, it’s just not going to be meaningful to compare only one month of data. This is where I would suggest maybe comparing an entire quarter or year if you’re working in an area with few sales. If you want bonus points too, maybe look at the average price and average price per sq ft to see if you observe anything different.

4) Huge percentages at lower prices: The lower the price in 2012, the higher the percentage change. Do you see that in the charts? For instance Oak Park had over 600% growth, which is just completely unreal. Someone even asked me on Instagram if this stat was accurate. It is. But here’s the thing. Part of the percentage being so high is simply a result of the first number in 2012 being so low (typically foreclosures and fixers selling then). When we look at the dollar change in Oak Park, the number is fairly consistent with the rest of the market in how much prices have risen. I’m not saying this to diminish the pain of gentrification or lower-priced areas increasing exponentially. I only want to say it’s helpful to be aware of both percentage and dollar growth so we are well-balanced in what we understand and say about the market.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Are Bay Area buyers dominating? One more thing. Here are some thoughts about Bay Area buyers in the Sacramento market.

Questions: What stands out to you most about the stats above? Any other points to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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Does the market really change every seven years?

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The market changes every seven years. And now it’s ready to take a big turn. Have you heard that? Is there really such a thing as a “seven-year rule”? Is it legitimate? Let’s talk about it.

A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER

1) Behavior: The market doesn’t have to behave a certain way every seven years. Bottom line. Case-in-point: We’ve had almost eight years of price growth in Sacramento in the current price cycle.

2) There is a cycle: Sometimes we only hear about the market being “hot”, but there really is a rhythm over years where prices go up and down. In many locations the market tends to change every decade or so, so I get why people believe in the seven-year rule. But keep in mind some markets are more flat over time rather than super cyclical like California (big point).

3) Talking in a range: I’m not a huge fan of being dogmatic about seven years, so I prefer to hear things like, “The market tends to change every 7-10 years or so.” Of course this type of statement might be totally off in some areas of the country, but in my market I get it when people say this because of historical data.

Now to some new images…

PRICE CYCLE IMAGES: I used the Freddie Mac Price Index to tell the story of the market over four decades. I like this price metric because it goes back 40 years. I’d love to use MLS instead, but that only goes back 20 years. Anyone have a different metric suggestion?

How long were the past few UP cycles before the market turned?

CALIFORNIA
1980s:  7.9 years
1990s: 10 years
Current:  7.5 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s:  7.1 years
1990s:  8.6 years
Current:  7.7 years

How long did the past few DOWN cycles last?

CALIFORNIA
1980s:  9 months
1990s:  5.5 years
2000s:  5.6 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s:  17 months
1990s:  5.9 years
2000s:  5.9 years

NOTE: It’s tempting to try to predict this next cycle based on the past few, but be really careful with that. There is no rule that says the market always has to behave the same.

Bonus (Adjusted for Inflation): I adjusted for inflation here to help compare dollar amounts over decades (and to satisfy econ / grad student friends who prod me about this). 

OTHER CYCLE CHARTS: I have other price cycle charts based on MLS data over the past 20 years. I have charts for Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County. See my big monthly market update (scroll to “price cycles”).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

MAKE THIS GRAPH FOR YOUR MARKET?

Do you want to know how to make a price cycle graph? I made a template to help you do this. Download my template and follow the instructions in the Excel file. If you make something, please tag me online or email me. I’d love to see what your market looks like. Here’s a video tutorial. Here are a few more tutorials also.

Questions: What stands out to you in the images above? Any other thoughts about price cycles?

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