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how to make a graph

Does the market really change every seven years?

October 22, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

The market changes every seven years. And now it’s ready to take a big turn. Have you heard that? Is there really such a thing as a “seven-year rule”? Is it legitimate? Let’s talk about it.

A FEW THINGS TO CONSIDER

1) Behavior: The market doesn’t have to behave a certain way every seven years. Bottom line. Case-in-point: We’ve had almost eight years of price growth in Sacramento in the current price cycle.

2) There is a cycle: Sometimes we only hear about the market being “hot”, but there really is a rhythm over years where prices go up and down. In many locations the market tends to change every decade or so, so I get why people believe in the seven-year rule. But keep in mind some markets are more flat over time rather than super cyclical like California (big point).

3) Talking in a range: I’m not a huge fan of being dogmatic about seven years, so I prefer to hear things like, “The market tends to change every 7-10 years or so.” Of course this type of statement might be totally off in some areas of the country, but in my market I get it when people say this because of historical data.

Now to some new images…

PRICE CYCLE IMAGES: I used the Freddie Mac Price Index to tell the story of the market over four decades. I like this price metric because it goes back 40 years. I’d love to use MLS instead, but that only goes back 20 years. Anyone have a different metric suggestion?

How long were the past few UP cycles before the market turned?

CALIFORNIA
1980s:  7.9 years
1990s: 10 years
Current:  7.5 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s:  7.1 years
1990s:  8.6 years
Current:  7.7 years

How long did the past few DOWN cycles last?

CALIFORNIA
1980s:  9 months
1990s:  5.5 years
2000s:  5.6 years

SACRAMENTO
1980s:  17 months
1990s:  5.9 years
2000s:  5.9 years

NOTE: It’s tempting to try to predict this next cycle based on the past few, but be really careful with that. There is no rule that says the market always has to behave the same.

Bonus (Adjusted for Inflation): I adjusted for inflation here to help compare dollar amounts over decades (and to satisfy econ / grad student friends who prod me about this). 

OTHER CYCLE CHARTS: I have other price cycle charts based on MLS data over the past 20 years. I have charts for Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County. See my big monthly market update (scroll to “price cycles”).

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

MAKE THIS GRAPH FOR YOUR MARKET?

Do you want to know how to make a price cycle graph? I made a template to help you do this. Download my template and follow the instructions in the Excel file. If you make something, please tag me online or email me. I’d love to see what your market looks like. Here’s a video tutorial. Here are a few more tutorials also.

Questions: What stands out to you in the images above? Any other thoughts about price cycles?

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: california housing market, el dorado, excel graphs for appraisers, how to make a graph, market update, placer, price cycle, real estate bubble, real estate price cycle, Sacramento, sacramento housing market, trend graphs, up and down market, yolo

Can you use comps from a different neighborhood?

March 1, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

One of the questions I get asked the most is, “Can I use comps from a different neighborhood?” Maybe. But then again, maybe not. Let’s talk about it, and I’ll show you what I do when making this decision. Of course there isn’t just one right way to go about this. Anything to add? 

1) Compare sales over time: One of the most important steps is to compare similar properties in each neighborhood over time. If there aren’t many recent sales I have no problem going back year by year to compare older sales. That’s okay. Is there a price difference? Sometimes it’s very clear there is, so it’s probably not a good idea to use “comps” from a different neighborhood (unless I’m making a location adjustment). When looking at two areas I try to find a percentage price difference too where possible so I can say something like, “It looks like prices are 10-15% higher there.” This sounds time-consuming, but there’s no such thing as a 5-minute “comp check”, right? Nothing replaces putting in the time.

2) Let’s get visual: Here are a few visuals I made to compare two areas. Does it look like there might be a value difference? I know, you don’t know how to graph. Why not learn though? It’s an incredible skill to add to your bag of tricks. Here’s a video tutorial.

Truth: It’s easy to “cherry pick” sales from Elmhurst when in Tahoe Park or North Oak Park. Maybe it works out okay sometimes, but in other cases it could be a really bad move.

3) Word on the street: Talking with other real estate professionals about what they think can be insightful. Where are values higher? If you had a property in both areas, where would it sell for more? Of course someone’s perception might be off, but insight from other agents and appraisers can still be useful.

4) Crunch numbers: Why not run stats for both areas? Running the numbers might give us clues into how value works. If you don’t know how to pull stats, here’s a tutorial.

The numbers clearly show one neighborhood has higher prices, so I might need to give a location adjustment if I’m using a “comp” from a different area. For me I like to give location adjustments based on lining up neighborhood sales instead of stats like this, but I might still use these stats to help reinforce an adjustment I give. Let’s remember the market isn’t so mechanical to always apply the same adjustment either. Sometimes there are special properties that seem to buck the trend and ignore price differences (this is what makes value complicated). But in most cases I would be foolish to ignore stats like this and arbitrarily choose “comps” from an area with higher prices without consideration that there might be a location adjustment needed.

BIG CAUTION: If one area has smaller homes, heavy fixers, not enough data, more foreclosures, or more remodeled properties, we might draw the wrong conclusions when looking at stats if we’re not careful. In other words, we need to know how to think through the numbers rather than taking them at face value. For instance, in North Oak Park there are more fixers and some streets simply do not sell as high as others, so that might actually soften the stats a bit. I might also recommend pulling stats for the entire neighborhood as well as competitively-sized properties. This way we at least have two data sets and hopefully a little more balance. And of course do steps 1-3 above too.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What step do you think is most important? Did I miss anything? What else do you do or recommend? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Resources Tagged With: choosing the right comps, comparing two neighborhoods, Elmhurst, Greater Sacramento Region, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, how to make a graph, making a loction adjustment, MedCenter, North Oak Park, pulling comps, pulling stats for Sacramento, tips for pulling comps

5 Reasons why graphing is a vital skill for real estate professionals

May 1, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist 5 Comments

Can you teach an old dog new tricks? That’s questionable. It’s certainly not easy for us humans to learn new things either. But let’s talk about one skill in real estate that is HIGHLY attainable, yet something that most will ignore (which can be good for you). Knowing how to graph neighborhood sales sounds really dull, but it’s truly something that can be an amazing tool to help you stand out from the crowd and look like a rock star to your clients.

Real estate geeks - Image purchased and used with permission by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

5 Reasons why graphing is a vital skill for real estate professionals

  1. We live in a visual world, so graphs help clients see the market.
  2. Neighborhood data can be far more powerful than zip code data.
  3. Why let Zillow or Trulia make all the graphs? Show your skills.
  4. Graphing helps you understand trends first before talking with clients.
  5. Graphs are perfect for sharing on your blog or social media.

A tutorial on how to make trend graphs: I made a tutorial below for you to check out. I recommend watching it and then pulling up your MLS so you can create a graph by following the steps I took. This is good for Sacramento MLS, but it’s also good for any MLS so long as you can export data (which is probably only a matter of clicking one button). Ask your MLS how you can export data to a spreadsheet if you cannot figure it out. I use Gnumeric in the video (a free version of Excel), and you can download that here for free. Or just use Excel, which is similar and what I use all the time for my fancier graphs.

You can watch the video above or directly here on YouTube. If it’s too small here, watch on YouTube for a larger version. Does this image help illustrate the market? What story does it tell? Should this seller in Rancho Cordova list at $230,000?

Rancho Cordova Example - trend graph of sales - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Some Quick Advice: The only way to add skills in business is to take a stab at learning something new, but one big reason why that doesn’t happen is because it can feel intimidating to take that first step. When it comes to graphing it’s easy to think it is only for techies, but trust me, you can do it. The more you practice, the better you’ll get. Remember, you are going to impress your clients by showing them the market visually. Don’t just tell them. Show them. I recommend trying out a graph every time you need to comp a neighborhood or maybe whenever you get a new listing. There are so many different types of graphs too. You can look at my market trends category for some examples. Whatever you do, get into a rhythm so you are practicing regularly. If you have some questions too, don’t hesitate to ask.

Questions: Was the tutorial helpful? Anything you need clarity on?

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Filed Under: Random Stuff, Resources Tagged With: education, growth in business, how to, how to make a graph, Metrolist, real estate professional, Sacramento MLS, Scatter Graph, tips from appraiser, trend graphs, tutorial, using MLS data

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