Flat. That’s been a good way to describe prices, and today I want to show you why I’m saying that. And it’s not just me because the overwhelming feedback from real estate agents and homeowners is that prices have really leveled off. What words are you using to describe the market right now? Let’s talk about it.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
2/19/25 NARPM (private)
3/6/25 Yolo Association YPN Event
3/12/25 Windemere Sierra Oaks
3/20/25 HomeSmart iCare Realty (private I think)
4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (details TBA)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
5/8/25 Private event (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
YES, I DID A KICKFLIP
My wife wasn’t a huge fan of this goal, but it was on my radar to re-learn how to do a kickflip this year. Well, I posted a video of a really clumsy kickflip, but this just has to count since I’m no longer a spring chicken.
HORIZONTAL IS THE VIBE
Here are a bunch of visuals from recent appraisals and presentations. Do you see how prices have gone more horizontal lately after blatant increases in previous years? This doesn’t mean there isn’t some upward pressure in some areas and price ranges, but there is no mistaking we’re far removed from a market like 2021 with rocket ship increases. Oh, and sorry if you hate scatter graphs. I’m a one-trick scatter graph pony in this post.
ARE PRICES GOING TO RISE IN THE SPRING?
Like I said last week, we are poised to see price metrics increase from January to February as we almost always do. We’re seeing higher-priced pending contracts that are larger in size, so it won’t be a shocker to see higher price metrics in February at the least. No matter what, we’re not poised to see huge increases though since supply has been growing more than demand and rates have been stubborn around 7%. By the way, I saw this Miata in Fair Oaks recently. All I’m saying is it’s on my bucket list to get a ride in this badboy (yes, I’m using my platform to bum a ride).
BUT AREN’T YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS UP?
To piggyback on what I said last week, price metrics were up 4% to 5% in the region in January compared to one year ago, so it seems like a real disconnect to say prices simultaneously feel flat. I realize this sounds like a contradiction, but there are a few things to keep in mind. First, homes were larger this year compared to last year, which can naturally lead to higher prices on paper this year. Second, we’ve seen more higher-priced units selling, and that can make a difference in the numbers. Moreover, traditional metrics like the median or average sales price suggest being up by 4%, but Zillow’s index suggested 2% in December. Let’s be real. Something like 2% can be pretty hard to see at times in the comps since that’s minimal change.
A WORD TO BUYERS ABOUT COMPETITION
It’s easy to hear a word like flat, and think there is no competition, but let me clarify. Overpriced units are sitting, but the good stuff definitely has competition. These days buyers are very picky about price, location, and condition, so when a well-priced home in good condition hits the market, there can be multiple offers. Yet, there are plenty of pendings that only get one offer too, so the dynamic isn’t the same in every escrow. Some stats though. 31% of pendings in February in the region got into contract in seven days or fewer, which reinforces my words here about the good stuff moving quickly. The thing I especially like seeing though are properties at 100+ days getting into contract (likely after a price reduction). 27% of pendings in February were on the market for more than one hundred days before a pending status. So, don’t be afraid to target an overpriced listing if the seller is willing to come down. Stats based on Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado (SFR detached units (no condos)).
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Questions: How would you describe prices? Anything else to add? What did I miss?
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