sellers coming back more than buyers

Sellers are coming back faster than buyers

May 1, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

The best way to describe the housing market is sellers are coming back faster than buyers. It’s simply easier to list a home than buy a home today. And this is why the housing temperature has changed. Let’s do a deep dive today into supply vs demand, and I suspect many areas around the country can relate to this.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (register here)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

SUPPLY IS THE GATEWAY TO MORE SALES

Sometimes people freak out when hearing about more supply hitting the market, but it’s important to realize more supply is the gateway to getting more sales. I’ve been talking about this lately with my friend Geoff Black, and I wanted to give him props for the gateway language. Anyway, if we continue to see the pile of listings grow faster than the pile of sales, that could put downward pressure on prices, which could eventually bring more buyers into the market. Only time will tell how the market unfolds, but more supply is what we want to see. And for my real estate friends, today is all about mindset. If you are struggling about the market changing, my advice is to figure out how you can see opportunities instead of negatives.

MISSING 35,000 LISTINGS

This is the x-factor for why prices have not dropped heavily in recent years. Over the past three years we’ve seen about 35,000 sellers NOT list their homes. This visual compares the number of new listings with the pre-2020 average. Imagine how different the market would feel if we had all that extra supply. And do you see how the trend is improving? We’re starting to get more listings, so we are not as far from the norm today.

Here’s a different way to look at the same thing. The dotted line represents the pre-2020 average, and the blue line is what we’ve seen happen.

SELLERS ARE REALLY STARTING TO THAW OUT

The number of listings today is still historically low, but it’s notably different than last year, and the market really feels it. Do you see sellers thawing out in these stats?

THERE WERE 10,000 MORE ACTIVE LISTINGS IN 2008

There is so much comparison to 2008 right now, but back then we had about 10,000 extra active listings, which is why prices were able to drop so quickly. Sometimes people accuse me of sugarcoating when I share stuff like this, but this is math. The reason prices haven’t plummeted in recent years despite glaring affordability issues is we haven’t had a huge imbalance between supply and demand.

IT’S EASIER TO BE A SELLER THAN A BUYER

Lifestyle needs are happening more readily for sellers before the math is working for buyers. In other words, lifestyle changes are compelling sellers more than affordability is working for buyers.

NO LONGER AT THE LOWEST LEVEL EVER

Here’s a different way to look at the number of active listings. We are now beating the previous four years, which is nice to see. In 2023, we hit the lowest level of listings we’ve seen in decades. It’s worth noting that sellers are NOT rushing the market like some people think, but we are seeing very healthy growth since the low point two years ago. We’re just feeling the extra growth in the market since the number of buyers hasn’t kept up.

MORE SALES HAPPENING IN 2025 (TRUE STORY)

There have actually been more sales in 2025 so far compared to 2024. This is probably being overshadowed by larger growth with listings, but this is positive news. I know it’s barely more than one year ago, but more is what we want to see.

WAITING FOR VOLUME TO EXPLODE

The strange part about today is we’ve had depressed volume for longer than what we saw during the Great Financial Crisis. Back then, market volume peaked in August 2005, and after 2.3 years we started to see a huge increase in volume again due to a massive climb in supply that led to prices dropping very quickly. I get that there were other differences then, but today we’ve had depressed volume for nearly 3 years with just a little bit of growth. I think many people have been saying things like, “volume change precedes price change,” and I completely get that. But we have to concede that prices today have remained higher because we’ve had tens of thousands of sellers not list their homes.

SELLERS ARE WAKING UP FASTER THAN BUYERS

The biggest story today is sellers have been outpacing buyers. We’ve had about 19% more new listings from January to April compared to last year at the same time, but just slightly more sales. In actual numbers, there have been about 1,500 extra new listings this year compared to 100+ extra closed sales. Do you see why the market feels different in 2025?

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LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What stands out to you about the stats above? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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When concessions stop working

April 16, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

Concessions are a tractor beam to entice buyers. Until they’re not. At some point they simply stop working, and prices have to be lowered. Let’s talk about this, and I have some new visuals to show which price points are growing and shrinking.

FIVE BEERS ON ME TONIGHT

I’m recording a live podcast in Downtown Sacramento tonight from 6:30-7:30pm. Want to join the audience? It’s at a brewery, and I’d like to buy a beer (or NA drink) for five people who come.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/16/25 Enlightenment Podcast (live event)
4/18/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/24/25 KW EDH (register here)
4/28/25 Socotra Capital (Zoom)
4/30/25 Anthony James Office Meeting (private)
5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

HAVE CONCESSIONS STOPPED WORKING?

New home sales have been lackluster for two months in a row in the Sacramento region, so concessions just aren’t doing what they used to do to attract buyers. And I get it. Between higher rates and economic uncertainty, some prospective buyers are on the sidelines. When looking at both February and March sales volume, it’s been a low couple of months. While it’s not awful volume, it’s a clear departure from the glowing trend in recent years. This is going to be interesting to watch ahead, and what happens with consumer sentiment and rates will play a huge role.

DROP THE PRICE IF NEEDED

A couple months ago I wrote about the housing market’s purple pill. The dream is to keep the price high while offering a credit, but buyers are extremely picky today about price, so they may want a reduction AND a credit. In other words, take the purple pill (combined red and blue). This goes for new homes and the resale market. Drop the price if needed.

GIVING MORE INCENTIVES IN 2025

This is just one builder, but Lennar is one of the largest builders in the country. We’ve seen a higher dollar amount of incentives in 2025 compared to 2024. Image from JBREC. Interesting data, right?

NO LONGER A CAPTIVE AUDIENCE

New construction has had a captive audience since sellers stepped back from the resale market, but we’re starting to see more sellers come back, so buyers have more selection. This means new construction simply doesn’t have as much attention.

ONE THING TO WATCH

If builders do lower their prices, that could affect what consumers are willing to pay for nearby homes in the resale market. The rationale becomes, “Why would I pay X amount for something old when I can get a brand new home for less?” This is something to watch. It won’t affect every single neighborhood, but one of the hardest homes to sell right now is one that is just a couple of years old because it’s very challenging to compete with the incentives offered in brand-new construction.

BUYERS, KEEP YOUR ANTENNAS UP

Keep your antennas up with builder incentives and prices. There could be some better deals out there for you if economic uncertainty persists (and rates remain higher). And no pressure from me to buy. Do whatever you want.

EXAMPLE OF INCENTIVES FROM A LOCAL BUILDER

I spotted this on Instagram yesterday. If you have other examples, I’d love to see. Please email me anytime.

WHERE IS VOLUME GROWING AND SHRINKING?

Where is the market moving? I have ten counties of data today. I’m hopeful these images will be useful to tell the local real estate story and even consider where to focus business. The first image shows what is happening in various price ranges from last year to this year. The second visual helps us see the percentage each price segment represents. For instance, in Sacramento County, 1.4% of all sales sold above $1.5M in Q1.

I hope this was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing with new construction lately? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers?

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Tariffs don’t bother Chuck Norris & spring housing vibes

April 9, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

We’re seeing the spring market unfold, but it’s also been a more subdued spring. I have lots of fresh stats today and some thoughts on the stock market vs real estate, declining condo prices, Chuck Norris, and cancellations. I hope this is helpful.

An AI-generated image of Chuck Norris in a suit in front of a house. He is holding a sign that says, "free pizza with full price offer."

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (register here)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
4/16/25 Enlightenment Podcast (live event)
4/18/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/24/25 KW EDH (private I think)
4/28/25 Socotra Capital (Zoom)
4/30/25 Anthony James Office Meeting (private)
5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

TARIFFS DON’T BOTHER CHUCK NORRIS

We’re seeing an impact from tariffs on the stock market, consumer confidence, and it’s to be determined what happens to the job market and economy. The x-factor here is whether tariffs are going to be lasting or not. The sentiment last week was tariffs would drive mortgage rates lower, but rates have gone higher this week so far. Anyway, let’s keep watching by the week and being realistic about the housing market. What we want to look at closely is the number of buyers getting into contract. That’s where we’ll see the trend first, whether buyers engage or pull back.

NOTE: This isn’t political for me. Let’s talk about stuff that matters to buyers, sellers, and the housing market.

A QUICK NOTE ABOUT MINDSET IN 2025

One of the things I constantly emphasize is how important mindset is in real estate. How we think about things really matters, and I find people can get sucked into fear very easily today. When uncertainty is on the menu, it’s honestly hard to not feel stressed, and my sense is having inner peace probably isn’t going to happen by accident. My advice? As we talk about some cracks in the economy and a slowing housing market, keep cultivating objectivity to interpret the trends, focus on growing your network, take care of your mental health, and find buyers and sellers who have incentive to participate regardless of market conditions. Here’s a reel I made in November 2024 about missing hope and running toward the market. This sums up my message. It’s my sermon, and I hope it resonates.

DOES THE STOCK MARKET DRIVE REAL ESTATE?

The stock market has been volatile lately, so I’ve been getting questions about how this might affect the housing market. Well, the stock market and housing market are both tied to the economy, so there is a relationship, but I wouldn’t say the stock market drives the housing market locally since most buyers don’t derive their income from stocks. For instance, Sacramento didn’t drop during the dot com bust around 2000. Sacramento peaked in 2005, but the stock market didn’t peak until 2007. And Sacramento dropped in the ’90s while the stock market increased. All that said, we need to watch consumer confidence, economic uncertainty, and recession talk very closely. Moreover, there are some buyers using a 401K for their down payment, and I wonder if there is more hesitancy now. I also want to keep an eye on higher-end buyers who might be more affected.

ARE THERE MORE CANCELLATIONS HAPPENING?

Cancellations have risen in 2025, which isn’t a shocker since there are more listings in the midst of about the same number of buyers. But condo cancellations are basically at a high point over the past decade, which is notable. Compared to the number of new listings in Q1, about 14% of detached units cancelled compared to just over 15% for condos. Sellers, it’s good to see these stats. What does it take to get into contract and avoid becoming a cancellation? Hint: Proper pricing and negotiating with buyers.

WAIT, ARE CONDO PRICES DROPPING?

As I’ve been writing about, condos are having a moment right now. They are experiencing some unique headwinds in light of rising HOA costs, financing issues, and maybe even buyer preference (wanting a backyard at these prices). Here is Woodside Sierra in Sacramento, and while the single family detached market has been pretty flat overall, the vibe is declining for some condos. This is a good reminder that the market isn’t the same in every price range, location, or with every property type. I may push out a few different neighborhoods ahead. Let me know if you’d like to see that.

SEEING SPRING IN THE STATS

We’re seeing a spring seasonal market in the numbers. Since January, we’ve observed all the stuff we would expect for the time of year. More sales, more new listings, more pending contracts, larger homes listing for sale, etc… In terms of prices, most areas are up slightly from one year ago. Some of the smaller counties are down depending on the metric. I’ve lumped smaller counties into sixty-day chunks because thirty days is too erratic. Keep in mind the size of homes getting larger or smaller can change the average sales price and average price per sq ft (which is why I added average square footage to my charts). Ultimately, the best way to describe the market right now is pretty flat with sellers coming back more than buyers. Yet, it’s also really competitive for properties that check all the boxes. There isn’t just one word to describe every part of the market at once.

YEAR OVER YEAR

MONTH TO MONTH:

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Questions: What stands out to you about my post today? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers about the future?

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Indiana Jones & the growing gap between buyers and sellers

April 3, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

The gap between buyers and sellers has been growing, but are we about to have an Indiana Jones moment in the housing market? I think many people are wondering that, so let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/4/25 Gateway Properties (private)
4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (register here)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
4/16/25 Enlightenment Podcast (live event)
4/18/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/24/25 KW EDH (private I think)
4/28/25 Socotra Capital (Zoom)
4/30/25 Anthony James Office Meeting (private)
5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

THE GAP BETWEEN BUYERS & SELLERS HAS GROWN

Sellers are coming back more than buyers. That’s the perfect description, and many markets around the country have this vibe. The number of new listings locally grew by about 20% this quarter from one year ago, but the number of closed sales is barely above last year at the same time. This has definitely made a difference with the housing temperature as many would call the market flat or use a word like “interesting” since it’s not always easy to put a finger on the decisive trend.

We’re still not back to pre-2020 normal levels, but the number of buyers is low today, so we’re feeling the extra supply. We’re having a definitive seasonal market, but it’s only been warm or mild overall since seller growth is outpacing buyer growth. By the way, in April 2008, there were about 13,500 active listings, so be careful about equating today with back then. This doesn’t mean prices couldn’t dip in a market like today. It’s just challenging to get a rapid price crash. This is about math.

Do you see the gap growing? There is more space between active listings compared to closed sales. It’s normal to have a wider gap than what we saw in 2021 and 2023, but we’ve currently grown to a point where the market has really flattened, so it feels like we’re at a place where we could soften ahead if the gap keeps growing. If rates go lower ahead though, could that energize the market to offset some of the softening? That’s the big question that only time will tell. What do you think?

ONLY MODEST BUYER GROWTH

Closed sales are up slightly from one year ago, which probably warrants a light golf clap instead of a roaring ovation. At the same time, we need to rejoice in the small wins today, so there’s nothing wrong with recognizing small growth. We want a market where more buyers and sellers participate because that’s what health looks like. Are we really below 2007 levels though? Sort of. Remember, the market for the second half of 2007 got destroyed, and that’s when volume really tanked. By the time 2025 ends, I’m expecting us to have eclipsed 2007 annual volume (like we did last year).

And here’s a different way to look at it. Most areas are up slightly. Take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Overall, pretty flat.

DELINQUENCIES GONE WILD (NOT REALLY)

There has been a viral narrative this week about single family delinquencies being at all-time highs, but it’s not true. The problem is people are looking at a visual of commercial delinquencies and conflating that with single family homes. I addressed this in an Instagram reel and on my socials. This is not about sugarcoating either. Let’s be realistic about the stats, call out fake news, and acknowledge any headwinds. Remember, our narrative changes as the stats change, but let’s not impose a doom or rosy lens on the market. I had one guy call me a Pollyanna this week. Haha. What’s the alternative here? Believe something that’s not real? Ultimately, let’s stay grounded in the numbers while keeping an eye on the future.

AN INDIANA JONES MOMENT

I can’t help but think of this classic scene in Indiana Jones for today’s housing market as people talk about the future. Do you remember when Dr. Jones was trying to replace the idol with a sandbag? Well, the housing market has clearly been softening, and the wonder is how much presumably lower rates could help boost the market ahead (if rates actually drop for a longer period). I think some people are very optimistic about this happening, but let’s not forget to watch consumer confidence, the price of things in a Trump tariff era, concerns about a recession, and carnage in the job market. I’m not promising anything here. All I’m doing is presenting a word picture to help describe some of the thinking on housing. What we know right now is the market is softening and feels like it’s at an inflection point. What happens when we throw in presumably lower rates? That’s the question. My take is lower rates will help energize the market, but it’s going to take more than a minor drop to close the growing gap between listings and sales. Only time will tell.

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem when clicking from my weekly email and trying to comment. My apologies. I hope to have this solved eventually.

Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers about the future?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

sellers coming back more than buyers

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