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pandemic market trends

What would happen to the housing market if we went on lockdown again?

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Lots of us are wondering about the future as COVID-19 cases are rising. When will this be over? What’s it going to take to beat it? And in terms of real estate, what would happen to the market if we went on lockdown again?

This isn’t about fear or politics, but conversation. This isn’t a prediction post either. My only purpose is to consider things that might affect housing. So let’s talk.

LOCKDOWN THOUGHTS:

1) Suppressed demand: There are many things that can affect a housing market. Mortgage rates, jobs, the economy, access to financing, etc…. and even the government. A mandated lockdown, whether national or statewide, is something that can suppress demand because the market isn’t able to operate as it normally would. When I say “lockdown” I’m talking about something akin to earlier in the year where occupied properties were not allowed to be shown.

2) Buyers & agents have learned: This time around we have more experience. The real estate community has learned to show homes virtually and buyers are more used to the idea also. However, if buyers and agents don’t have full access to real estate because of imposed rules then it’s hard to imagine seeing no effect on the housing market.

3) Sellers: One thing to watch is sellers pulling their listings from the market or waiting to sell if strict rules were imposed or if COVID numbers got out of control. Throughout the pandemic we’ve seen substantially fewer listings and it wouldn’t be surprising to see fewer during a lockdown or grave situation. Yet not all sellers are the same and there will be people who list no matter what.

4) Buyers: I imagine mortgage rates below 3% will keep propelling lots of buyers to hunt for homes because that’s exactly what’s been happening these past months. In short, mortgage rates have pulled far more buyers into the market than the coronavirus has pulled people out. In other words, so far the pandemic hasn’t hampered buyer demand. But what happens if access to real estate is limited or a feeling of uncertainty about the economy, housing, or future ensues? All I’m saying is we need to continue to watch buyer sentiment because it’s not something that always stays the same.

5) It is a real market: When the pandemic first began I heard things like, “This isn’t a real market,” but that wasn’t true. Prices slowed. There were far fewer pending contracts. And the market felt dull. In other words, we had real trends and stats even though there was an element of the market feeling suppressed due to governmental regulations. That didn’t make it a fake market though.

6) No effect whatsoever: Our market has done very well within the confines of current restrictions, so if those persist we may not see too much difference as long as demand remains high. But if the rules change and access to the market changes, that’s where we might expect to see a difference in the way the market feels (or a change in the stats). As a guy who follows the market closely what I am looking for is a change in buyer or seller sentiment or a change in something that would affect access to real estate.

7) Could we see a “W”? When the pandemic began we saw a huge drop in volume and then a massive recovery. This created a “V” shape because there was a drop and then an increase. Well, if we have a second round of outbreak and a lockdown, could we see another “V” which would then form a “W”? I wrote about this a few months back in a conversation with an economist. Or would the crazy momentum we have right now simply press through a lockdown? This is the question and we’re going to have to wait to see how it pans out. If anything we ought to be wary of predictions. I don’t think anyone at the beginning of the year predicted the market we’re in right now… This doesn’t mean we need to be shy about asking questions about the future though.

8) Commercial real estate: This has been a brutal year for many business owners and a second round of lockdown could be a deathblow. What happens to business owners and commercial property owners over the next few years?

9) Other: What else do we need to consider? What is on your mind? I’d really like to hear your take in the comments or via email.

Free webinar: I’m doing a big market update this week for SAFE Credit Union on November 19th from 9-10am PST. It’s free to anyone and it’ll hopefully be some good background noise while working. Register here.

Thanks so much for reading my post today.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

For those interested, here’s a big Sacramento market update:

MARKET SUMMARY: In short, the market has been slowing for the season, but it’s still best described as a “hot” market. I keep saying that this fall has not been normal because the market hasn’t softened like it normally does. It’s really felt more like spring than anything… With that said we have begun to see sales volume drop for the fall, but properties are still selling very quickly. In fact, half of all home sold in six days or fewer in the region last month. We literally have about 50% fewer listings right now, inventory is at historic lows, and we had 39% more multiple offers last month compared to a year ago. The big news is sales volume has finally caught up to last year after being down due to a slump at the beginning of the pandemic. What I mean is as a result of the past four months of heightened demand we’re finally back to 2019 levels. Well, Sacramento County is still down, but El Dorado and Placer County being up has effectively pushed us back to normal.

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO REGION:

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff.

Thanks for being here.

Political comments: I will not approve any comments that are exclusively political because this is a blog about housing. We can touch on politics as it affects real estate, but overt political rants are best for other blogs.

Questions: Do you think we’ll go on lockdown? What are you seeing out there right now?

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Condos, halfpipes, & cooling 2-4 units

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I have two compelling trends to share today, but fist let’s talk about a concrete halfpipe at an investor flip. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

An investor friend just bought a house in Auburn with a halfpipe in the backyard. I’ll admit the middle school skater kid in me is stoked while the middle-aged man in me wants to relive my glory days… But what should Erin do as a flipper? Should she keep it or rip it out? Is this an asset or a liability?

This is a fun conversation, but there is a serious element here because investors come across interesting things all the time and have to make real-life decisions like this. So put your real estate cap on and let me know what you think in the comments.

Check out Erin’s Instagram (thanks for letting me share).

TWO TRENDS TO WATCH:

1) Condo sales are down 14.1% this year: I mentioned last month that condos haven’t been as popular and here’s a brand new visual to show what I mean. In short, buyers have been more focused on detached homes, which likely stems from wanting more space, privacy, and a larger backyard during the pandemic. Of course in the background low rates are a big factor because they give buyers more purchasing power (and thus shape what they can buy).

2) The cooling 2-4 unit market in Midtown: The single family market has been showing huge price increases in the Sacramento region, but the 2-4 unit market in Midtown isn’t the same temperature. When looking at the graph below do you see a flattening of prices lately? Does this surprise you?

This is something to watch and we have to keep rent control and eviction moratoriums on the suspect list when trying to understand this softer trend. Yet one of the bigger issues is these units have had massive price growth in recent years while rent growth has been slowing lately. Thus at some point when investors crunch the numbers it doesn’t make sense to pay more. For reference there isn’t an oversupply of listings in this market and demand is still strong.

Keep in mind other portions of Sacramento with lower-priced 2-4 units have still been showing an increase. These other areas have rent control too, which helps me think the flattening in Midtown is more related to flirting with a price ceiling.

Anyway, I’m thinking out loud and we need more time to see the trend. By the way, thanks to Brian McMartin and Franco Garcia for having conversations with me this week about this sub-market. I really value hearing what others are seeing out there as I run stats and interpret them.

Big point 1: The market isn’t the same everywhere.

Big point 2: Don’t take the trend in Midtown and project it on other 2-4 unit properties in the region. See point #1.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Should the halfpipe stay or go? Why? Any thoughts about the two trends I shared? I’d love to hear your take.

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Crazy contracts & condos are less popular

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I have two things on my mind today. Let’s talk about condos and then some of the crazy contracts we’re seeing happen right now. Then I have lots of visuals for those who are interested.

CONDOS ARE NOT ALL THE RAGE:

It looks like condos aren’t so popular these days. During the pandemic buyers have been saying no thanks and instead focusing on homes with more space. No matter how you look at it there are fewer condo sales happening, and that’s telling. If you’re not local, what’s happening in your area?

MARKET NOT COLD: One thing I want to clarify is just because condos haven’t been as popular doesn’t mean the condo market is dull or cold. Inventory is still sparse among condos, so don’t expect to get the deal of a century. In fact, there is not an oversupply of listings among condos at this time. Inventory is really tight. 

CRAZY CONTRACTS:

It’s common these days to see the appraisal contingency removed and many buyers are even offering to pay above the appraised value (if it comes in lower than the contract price). Anyway, I’ve been getting lots of questions about this, so here are some thoughts:

1) Value is not found in the contract: The reality is value is found in the comps – not the contract. Technically the terms in the contract shouldn’t matter because the only thing that counts is comparable data. Of course I realize some appraisers are swayed by the contract, and that’s unfortunate. Ultimately if you find yourself worried about the terms, I’d recommend focusing instead on communicating well with the appraiser because the comps are the bigger factor.
 
2) Offering above the appraisal: When I see a contract that states the buyer will pay above the appraised value by a certain amount if the appraisal comes in lower, the practical part of me wonders if the buyer actually thinks it’s not worth what was offered. But since my job is to be objective, my curiosity about the buyer doesn’t mean anything for the appraisal. The bottom line is I cannot let that influence my perception of market value. Besides, offering to pay more might not be about the buyer’s perception of value at all. Instead it could be a strategy to get an offer accepted. And most of all, the comps are what matters – not what an individual buyer thinks about value.
 
3) Hiding information: I was asked recently if it would be OK to only give the appraiser the purchase contract without an addendum that had further terms. Look, I’m not a lawyer or broker, but from my perspective I’d ask that you please give the appraiser the entire contract instead of holding something back for whatever reason. In my mind when this happens it seems like the goal is to try to influence the outcome of the appraisal, and that doesn’t smell right. Let’s keep it transparent.
 
Anyway, this is a loaded topic. Lots of emotions. What are your thoughts? Any stories to share? Please do so in the comments.
 
MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: Here’s my latest market update where I unpack glowing rebound stats. Watch below (or here).
 

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

Here are some new visuals. You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing with condos right now? What’s happening with contracts too? Anything you’d like to see change?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Seven hundred missing sales

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We’re obsessed with prices. OBSESSED. But real estate is about way more. In fact, if we want to understand a market we need to move beyond a laser focus on prices. On that note, let’s talk about sales volume.

1) Seven hundred missing sales: There were about 700 fewer sales this April compared to last year in the Sacramento region. In other words, sales volume was down about 30% last month from April 2019.

2) Volume reflects pendings from the past: In mid-March the housing market started to react to the coronavirus and in three weeks pending contracts dropped 45%. Well, pending contracts from back then started to close in April, and that’s the reason why we saw a big drop in monthly volume.

3) Sensational: It’s easy to get sensational with stats like this and say the housing market is crashing, but we’ve been in a pandemic and these types of numbers at 30% are what we’d expect. Moreover, we’re seeing figures like this in many markets across the country. Keep in mind pending contracts have been on the rise for the past month, which means we can expect sales volume figures to grow in a month or two when these new ones close.

4) It’s about more than prices: The reason I’m so interested in sales volume is because it’s possible for prices to remain stable even though the number of actual sales has changed dramatically. So while it’s easy to say, “Hey, prices are okay,” I think the bigger headline has to do with what is happening behind the scene with sales volume. I talked about this in a webinar this week here.

Now let’s get visual.

FRESH VISUALS TO SHOW SALES VOLUME:

OTHER VISUALS TO SHOW WEEKLY / DAILY CHANGES:

RESOURCES:

New market video: Here’s my weekly market update. It’s 15 minutes and I talk through some big stats this week that show buyers and sellers are coming back to the market. Check it out below (or here).

A pandemic webinar: On Monday I did a 90-minute webinar with the Sacramento Association of Realtors. This is almost an hour and I trimmed the first ten minutes because it was a recap of my weekly video. Watch below (or here).

Videos this week: I’ve been doing lots of video conversations lately. I figured I would post the recorded ones in case anyone wants to listen.

4/30/2020 Conversation with Steve LaMothe
5/01/2020 Conversation with Anthony Alfano & Others

WEBINAR NEXT WEEK: I’m doing a one-hour webinar next week for Safe Credit Union on May 13th. It’s free. Sign up here if you wish.

Appraiser John Carlson GoFundMe: John is an appraiser in Southern California and he was diagnosed with cancer and hospitalized. I invite you to pray for him and donate if you can. See more here.

I hope this was interesting or helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you noticing happening with the market these days? Anything to add? What did I miss?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.