inventory

The market is hot (but dull on paper)

February 12, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

The market looks really dull on paper, but it’s not. Well, the latest sales stats from January are sluggish, but one of the worst things we can do this time of year is get stuck on sales. The problem is the market is actually heating up right now, but we just won’t see it for a couple months until current hot pendings start closing escrow. Here are a few fresh analogies to help explain this dynamic. Then for those interested, let’s take a deep dive into the market.

Examples to explain the market at this time of year:

Pregnancy test: You can technically be pregnant but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for a couple of weeks. Similarly, the market is heating up, but we won’t see the results of the market changing for a couple months until current pendings start closing escrow.

Getting a pay raise: You got a pay raise, but you won’t see it reflected until your next paycheck in a few weeks or months. The market is exactly like that. Something good is happening, but we don’t quite see it in the sales stats yet (but we do see it in the pendings).

Election results: The polls jut closed and there’s definitely a winner, but we don’t know who it is until the votes are actually counted. This reminds us of today. We don’t always know exactly what the stats are going to be in a couple months, but we do sense the market getting hot.

Planting a seed: The market is like planting a seed. You know something is growing, but you cannot see it yet until it pokes above ground in a month or two.

Thank you Twitter friends for helping me crowdsource some of these examples.

CLASS I’M TEACHING: By the way, I’m doing my favorite class at SAR on Feb 18th from 9am-12pm called “How to Think Like an Appraiser.” Sign up here.

THE BIG POINT: In a normal January and February the market is in a weird spot. It’s out of hibernation from the holidays, but we might not see any upward value movement in sales stats until March (even though the market started heating up in January and February). The truth? Data lags the trend. I remind myself of this every year. Anyway, here are some things to watch right now:

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

THE SHORT VERSION:

January stats were down
Hot stats have an asterisk
Strong pendings so far
The market feels like 2017
Competitive feel vs increases
Pretty weak January volume
No “full” priced offers yet
Multiple offers growing
Sales volume feels normal (sort of)
Why volume slumped
Low rates are like steroids
Listings are coming
Ain’t nothing wrong with a slower pace
More visuals for surrounding counties

DOWNLOAD 82 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

January stats were down: Usually January real estate numbers are sluggish, which is why we shouldn’t look to them to boost our self-esteem. This makes sense though because closed sales reflect what the market was doing during November and December when these properties got into contract. Here’s a good picture of the market where you can see clear softening from December to January in every category (this is normal for the time of year).

Hot stats have an asterisk: Most price metrics right now are up 5-7% compared to last year and this makes the market sound super hot. But one thing we have to realize is we’re comparing today with a very dull season last year. So for the past few months we’ve seen sexy stats that make it seem like the market is going insane, but we need to be aware of how easily numbers can get inflated if we don’t recognize how dull the market was then compared to now.

Strong pendings so far: The sales numbers for January are dull, but the seasonal market is definitely heating up. We just don’t quite see it in the stats yet. Last week 500 properties got into contract in the Sacramento Region. There were 600 new listings also. Overall pendings look to be up slightly compared to the past couple years at this time.

The market feels like 2017: It’s important to recognize the temperature of the market is definitely changing for the season as it’s getting “hot” around here, but it’s not also the type of hyper-aggressive market we saw in 2013 either. I think a good way to describe today is it’s a price-sensitive sellers’ market that feels much more like 2016 or 2017 rather than 2013.

Competitive feel vs aggressive increases: The market is definitely competitive out there, but it’s also important to realize it’s possible to have a really competitive market without crazy value increases either. In other words, we can have lots of competition without enormous price gains. This is sort of what much of last year felt like actually where the market was competitive but price increases were more subdued. Of course the verdict is still out on this spring season, and it’s frankly going to be interesting to see how the numbers evolve in light of how low mortgage rates are.

Pretty weak January volume: The positive news is this January sales volume was up about 6% compared to last year, but it was actually the second lowest January in terms of sales volume in over a decade in Sacramento County.

No “full” priced offers yet: Did you watch “Full House” from the 80s and 90s? I sure did. But I’ll admit I haven’t jumped on the “Fuller House” reboot on Netflix. I’m just not interested. Anyway, the “Full House” home in San Francisco has been on the market and it’s not selling. It’s almost like buyers aren’t willing to overpay just because the house was on TV… Seriously though, this is a great lesson. Buyers won’t pay any price, but they will pay the right price. Did you hear that sellers?

Multiple offers growing: An interesting way to gauge the market is to consider multiple offers beause it’s a clue into the current market. We don’t have sales stats yet to show a “hot” spring, but we do have pendings, and this says something. Last month 44.5% of sales had more than one offer. This is actually higher than it was last year or any year for that matter since our MLS began tracking the number of offers.

Sales volume is normalizing (sort of): For over a year we saw sales volume drop, but over the past six months we’ve been coming out of the slump. Well, technically. Stats have been up these past six months, but we have to take this news in context because we’re comparing today’s numbers with really dull stats from the previous year. In short, on one hand we’ve seen volume sort of normalize so to speak over the past two quarters, but on the other hand we’re still down from previous years as you can see in the second image below. In fact, this past year saw about 1,500 to 2,000 fewer sales compared with the clear trend from 2016 through 2018. But here’s the thing to remember. Sales volume was lower these past two years, but it’s also on the lower side of normal. So if we look at 2014 and 2015, for instance, we can see this clearly. But the bigger truth is we’ve seemed to break away from the higher trend from 2016 through 2018. So in this regard sales volume is still down. Are we now entering a new normal with lower volume? We’ll see.

Why volume slumped: When giving market updates the conversation about slumping volume almost always leads into talking about anemic listings. The idea is volume has slumped because there are fewer listings available. It sounds logical because if you have fewer listings, you’re going to have fewer sales. The truth is over time if sellers don’t list this could absolutely affect sales volume. But here’s the thing to remember. When volume started to really slump in 2018 it wasn’t because of a lack of listings. It was because mortgage rates shot up and it shocked buyers out of the market. Buyers definitively put their foot on the brakes and we saw the effect of that for over a year. So while anemic listings can certainly influence sales volumes figures over time I think we have to recognize that what started this was a reaction against increasing rates (which is really about affordability).

Low rates are like steroids: Mortgage rates have almost never been as low as they are right now, and we have a market that is very sensitive to rate changes. So when rates move up, we really feel it and the market gets dull. Likewise, when rates drop, buyers jump into the game and the market feels much more competitive. Buyers at the moment need to get into contract quickly to lock in a low rate, so that only compounds a competitive feel.

Expect more listings: Buyers have been patiently waiting for good product to hit the market and that’s finally beginning to happen. There are hundreds more listings going live every week and we can expect to see this continue through probably mid-Summer (which is the normal trend).

Ain’t nothing wrong with a slower pace: There is no mistaking a slower pace of price growth lately. As you can see when looking at the annual median price in the Sacramento region, the market has clearly decelerated. This doesn’t mean it’s declining. It just means growth has been slower compared with the beginning of this real estate cycle. My observation is sometimes the real estate community struggles to admit this because people buy into the idea that you can only say good things about the market. But markets don’t always increase and they aren’t always aggressive either.

Okay, I need to mention one thing. When we look at the past quarter of sales for each respective year we actually see a more robust quarter this past year. Does this mean the market is starting to accelerate? Well, that could be, and mortgage rates could certainly be an x-factor here. But one thing we do need to consider is last year the market was REALLY dull, so I wouldn’t put too much stock for now in comparing today’s numbers with last year. My advice? Let’s get a few more months of data before drawing conclusions.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 82 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Do you have any analogies to add to my list above? What stands out to you about the market right now? What are you seeing out there? Anything to add?

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Peaking prices & rosy real estate narratives

September 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

People tend to freak out when prices slow down. What’s going on? Is the market crashing? But every year around this time we start to see the market soften. Let’s talk about this, and then for those interested I have a big market update.

1) Slowing is normal: Prices have likely crested for the season in many areas of the country. What I mean there’s a good chance we’ve more or less seen the highest prices we’re going to see for 2019 as the market is starting to show its descent from the high-altitude spring season. This happens EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. It doesn’t mean it’s not competitive either. It just means it starts to take longer to sell, the number of sales begins to shrink, and prices tend to taper.

2) The rosy real estate narrative: It can be a struggle for many people when hearing the market is slowing. It’s like we are only allowed to talk about real estate in glowing terms and our talking points must fit into a rosy narrative. So when there’s any hint of news that sounds even slightly negative, it feels like something is wrong. What do you mean prices aren’t going up? Wait, they’re softening? Does that mean the market is about to turn? Remember, just as it’s not always sunny outside, real estate isn’t always burning hot either.

3) The mistake of misinterpreting slowness: On the other side of the coin we tend to see lots of doom and gloom conversations around this time of year as the market softens. My advice? Know what is normal for the fall season so you can assess whether it’s a normal seasonal slowing or something more. In other words, let the stats speak to you and inform your real estate narrative. Otherwise you may be swayed by sensational headlines or get sucked into a real estate culture that sometimes struggles when things aren’t ultra-positive.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. If I had to sum up the market I’d say things have felt a little more normal lately. Granted, low mortgage rates are like a steroid helping the market feel normal, but nonetheless stats have been about what we’d expect for this time of year – which is unlike the dark season we experienced last year at the same time.

DOWNLOAD 80+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Stats feel mostly normal
California will now have rent control
Year-over-year price growth is stronger
Don’t be like Michael Jordan
Volume was down slightly in August
Listings are seriously anemic
Pendings are strong right now
Sales volume is down 9% this year
The market is slowing for the season

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal and cresting prices: We’re seeing about what we’d expect to see right now with prices starting to soften. I’d say prices have likely crested for the season. It’s possible we could see some price metrics bounce up slightly due to low mortgage rates, but that usually doesn’t happen beyond August much. Besides, any sales from September really reflect older pendings from July and August anyway.

Rent control: Statewide rent control in California was just passed by the legislature. There is going to be a learning curve for the real estate community on how to deal with this from a value perspective too. We may need years to really understand the effect on the housing market. Keep in mind this only applies to 2-unit+ properties built prior to 1995 (it does not apply to single family homes). Also, this doesn’t mean rents won’t increase either because landlords can legally raise rents 5% plus inflation each year.

14th bubble anniversary: The real estate “bubble” popped fourteen years ago in Sacramento in August 2005. In other parts of the country the market started to turn in 2007, but we started to tank in 2005. So happy anniversary, I guess.

Michael Jordan’s house: In 2012 Michael Jordan’s house was put on the market for $29 million and after seven years it still hasn’t sold. It’s now listed for about $15M. This just goes to show buyers aren’t willing to pay any price – even if the owner is famous. This is a great object lesson for sellers today who are prone to think they can command whatever price they want since inventory is low. Nope. Buyers are extremely sensitive to paying the right price and they’re more informed than ever. If you want to sell you need to price it right. Bottom line.

Slowing doesn’t mean it’s cold: The market isn’t slow, but it’s starting to show signs of slowing for the season as it’s taking longer to sell, most price metrics declined from July to August, and sales volume looks to be starting to slough for the year as it normally does. This doesn’t mean the market is cold though. Not at all. It’s just not as hot as it was during the spring. Over the next month I’d expect the market to heat up a bit though since kids are back in school and vacations are done. There is usually a last run on the market before the holidays arrive.

Almost 8 years of price increases: In the current real estate price cycle we’ve had about eight years of price growth so far. When I say eight, some people correct me with seven, but that’s not accurate if you count every year since 2012. I also have a chart like this for Placer, Yolo, & El Dorado County in my monthly download.

Stronger price growth: Prices are up about 4-5% from last year, which is a change from a more subtle 2-3% we’ve been seeing for most of the year. What’s going on? Part of the growth could stem from low mortgage rates fueling buyers to play the game, but let’s remember too last year was a dull time in the market, which means it’s going to be easier on paper this year to see glowing stats (more on that below). Let’s not make too much of one month of data.

Really sparse listings lately: The number of listings has been noticeably down. I mean, we’re seeing multiple hundreds fewer per month these days. Technically housing inventory as a metric is on the lower side of normal these days, but there have been fewer listings hitting the market (remember, inventory as a metric measures the relationship between listings and sales rather than the number of actual listings). I’ve been thinking about what’s going on here for a number of months and I’ll admit I don’t have it all figured out. Part of it of course is pendings have been stronger, which naturally means there’s fewer available listings. And maybe some would-be sellers refinanced into a lower rate rather than selling. I don’t think this is the byproduct of the iBuyer model with so many listings selling privately instead of coming to the market, but some properties certainly sold this way. Mostly I would guess this is related to sellers feeling uncertain about the market. Just as buyers had their moment last year where they backed off the market a bit, maybe sellers are feeling it’s their turn? There could be other reasons. This is something I’ll keep watching to understand over time. I’d love to hear your take here.

Warning about glowing stats ahead: Hey stat nerds, this is important. Over the next few months if we have fairly normal numbers they could end up looking glorious since last year the market was in a slump. If you remember, when mortgage rates shot up in 2018 buyers began to put their foot on the brakes and it felt like there was a dark cloud looming for about six months. Anyway, when you’re pulling stats over these next two quarters, just remember the numbers might technically look glowing this year compared with last year. My advice? Take stats with a grain of salt and compare multiple years of data rather than give laser focus to last year.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market continues to show price growth, but the rate of change is slowing. This sounds offensive to some because the narrative in real estate is often that the market is always blazing hot. But let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick at about 1-3%, but this past month the stats look a bit sexier. Part of this could be due to lower mortgage rates, but some of it could be due to the market showing weakness last year (which helps pad today’s stats).

3) VOLUME SLUMP: Volume was lower last month compared to August 2018, but not by much. The bigger story though is volume is down in the region by 9% over the past year. Moreover, volume has been down in the region for 14 out of the last 15 months. Overall despite a lower year of volume, it’s still not outside of a normal low range (see 2014 and 2015).

4) PRICES SOFTENED IN AUGUST: The market generally slowed in August in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat (even though they’re up from last year). This is fairly normal for the time of year, and sometimes we see prices bounce up and down as summer comes to a close. Stay tuned. Let’s keep watching.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 80+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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The players in the market & normal pendings

February 12, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 17 Comments

Who are the players in the market? Who is buying and selling? Who is coming? Who is going? These are questions we have to ask to grasp a local market. And for real estate professionals, knowing who the players are helps us serve clients well and sometimes even make future business plans.

Well, let’s talk about a new player in town called Opendoor. This company is trying to gain a foothold in about 20 markets across the country right now. If you’re not local, are they in your area?

Opendoor posted up in Sacramento last year and they’ve begun to make a splash. They’re not dominating the market by any stretch, but in the region over the past few months they bought over 90 homes. I don’t fully understand the fine print of their business model yet, but in a nutshell they buy from owners privately and then put these homes back on the market to sell to the public. In fact, mostly all of their private purchases are currently re-listed on our local MLS. Opendoor also has an affiliation with Lennar – a local builder.

My real estate antennas: Any time I see a group buying a larger amount of homes, I pay attention. In the past I talked heavily about Blackstone, and in the future I’ll discuss other players whether they’re making a splash or shaping the market (like Blackstone did). Any stories or thoughts?

Now for those interested, let’s talk about the market – especially pendings.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

The market slumped during the second half of 2018, and now it’s an interesting spot. Let’s talk about it.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Pendings were normal for January
Sales volume has slumped for 8 months in a row
Prices are barely up from last year
Most metrics softened as expected for January
The market is starting to wake up for the spring
This post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here’s some of the bigger topics to consider right now.

We need time: We don’t have a totally clear picture for where the market is going yet in 2019. We still need more time. Here is what I am specifically looking for in the stats over these next few months.

Normal pendings: It’s big news that pending sales were normal this past month compared to last January. We’ve had a slump in sales volume for eight months, so what does this mean? Well, it could be the market trying to find some normalcy after two quarters of sluggishness. Though the real cause very likely stems from mortgage rates recently declining. It’s amazing how that can affect buyers and even sales volume. Remember, pendings in January will likely close in February and especially March. So if we start to see a normal level of pendings in January and February, we may see sales volume show normalcy for the time being.

Yeah, most metrics softened: We saw the typical signs we’d expect to see at this time of year with most metrics. It look longer to sell last month, prices dipped, inventory increased, and sales volume sloughed. Though overall the softening in most metrics felt way more pronounced.

Low rates are steroids: Mortgage rates declined and that’s seeming to draw some buyers back into the market. Low rates are like steroids for demand – at least temporarily.

More listings this year: There’s more listings this year compared to last year at the same time. In fact, it’s been about five years since we’ve started the year with this much housing supply.

Waking up: I’m hearing from many agents about more buyer attention on their listings lately. More traffic at open houses. More offers. It’s still to be determined what this spring market will look like exactly, but for now the spring season is starting to move.

Not seeing aggressive price gains: The rate of price change has slowed. What I mean is in years past we’d see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but now we’re seeing modest 2-3% year-over-year price gains.

In case you need slumping trivia to impress friends: Last month we saw the worst sales volume in 11 years for a January. We’ve had eight months in a row of year-over-year sales volume declines. That’s a dismal stat and there’s no sugar-coating it. If this trend doesn’t change we’re going to have a much different market. Yet this is why seeing normal pendings for January is a big deal because today’s level of pendings could presumably show a normal number of sales in a couple of months when these properties close.

The Tallest Graph in Sacramento: Here’s a look at over 60,000 single family detached sales in Sacramento County. This graph is inspired by Jonathan Miller.

Less offers: Here’s an interesting way to see the market has slowed. Multiple offers are down about 11% this year.

More concessions in new construction: Lots of builders are offering credits and concessions to help get their deals done lately. This is a symptom of a slower market. It seems more sellers are also offering concessions and credits too. Buyers, don’t be afraid to negotiate with sellers since the market has slowed, but at the same time don’t think you are driving the market either. Keep your perception of power in check. And sellers, talk with your agent about whether credits or concessions might need to be an option on the table.

Final thought before the graphs: In closing, the market is in an interesting spot. It feels like it’s juggling uncertainty from last year with a striving for normalcy today. We only have one month of data and we need to keep watching to see how this market is going to emerge.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWING MOMENTUM: The stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. Looking at monthly, quarterly, and annual numbers helps give a balanced view of things.

2) SALES VOLUME SLUMP: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month and year.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

January volume down 21.5%
Volume is down 4.7% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

January volume down 17.7%
Volume is down 5.8% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

January volume down 10.9%
Volume is down 7.7% over the past 12 months

3) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR: Here’s a comparison of last year compared to the same time this year. What do you see?

NOTE: Placer County had very few sales this January, so I wouldn’t put much weight on the price figures for this month.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BLOG BASH: Just a reminder I’m hosting a blog party on March 2nd from 3-7pm. You’re invited to celebrate my blog’s 10th birthday. I know, that sounds a little cheesy. But I’ll be buying the first 100 beers… Details here.

Questions: Any stories to share about who is playing the market right now? What are you experiencing right now in the trenches with buyers and sellers?

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It’ll never sell that high (but then it did)

May 17, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

There’s no way it’s going to sell that high. Have you ever thought that in real estate? Well, let’s talk about a property that many said would never sell at $4.1M, but then it did. I definitely have some takeaways about this lofty condo in Downtown Sacramento, and I hope non-locals will relate to the commentary. Then for those interested I have a huge market update below. Any thoughts?

A few things on my mind about this one sale:

1) Outlier: This sale is a total outlier. It is a big deal, but it’s also completely disconnected from the rest of the market. Can you tell based on the graph?

2) Thin history above $4,000,000: There have literally only been four residential sales ever above $4M in Sacramento County. EVER. So yes, it’s huge news to have a condo close this high, but at the same time let’s not think everything is now worth four million. Here are the sales:

a) Governor’s Mansion in Carmichael in 2004 at $4.1M
b) Sierra Oaks home in 2013 at $4.7M
c) Elk Grove estate in 2005 at $4.6M (sold $1.3M in 2011)
d) Downtown Condo at $4.1M

3) Lamborghini & Camry: Some have said things like, “I can’t afford the market any longer.” But this one “lone ranger” sale isn’t the new comp for everything in town. It’s tempting for sellers to price higher now, but it’s not like someone ten miles away is going to pay more at the $300,000 level because of a multi-million dollar condo sale. If my neighbor bought a Lamborghini, that doesn’t all of a sudden mean I have to pay more for a Camry…

4) An emerging market: There is definitely an appetite for high-end condos in Sacramento, so let’s expect to see this niche market find more expression in coming time. Ultimately the sales office at the Kimpton Sawyer Hotel has done well so far to sell units far above what many locals imagined. Of course the eventual test for these properties will be to see what happens when they hit the resale market in coming years without the benefit of marketing from a Beverly Hills sales agency.

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Anything to add?

-—-—- Big monthly market update (absurdly long on purpose) ———–

The market feels very normal for the spring. Well, I guess what I mean is all the stats are normal, but buyers are pulling the trigger very quickly and we’re seeing multiple offers on just about anything that is priced correctly. One of the bigger stories is sales volume so far in the beginning of 2018 is up 5% in the region. In fact, we’ve seen the strongest start to the year since 2013. Buyers have been starving for more inventory, so they’re gobbling up anything in site as long as it’s not overpriced. But part of the growth in volume these past few months could also stem from some buyers trying to get a slice of real estate pie before interest rates rise.

New recap images: Last month I introduced recap images. Here’s round two, though this month my data from last year is less complete since I tore my knee a year ago (I’m all better now). Anyway, what do you think?

Two quick things:

1) Inventory is increasing: We’re starting to see inventory increase a bit. For years it did nothing but decline, but toward the end of last year it seemed to flatten out, and so far this year we’ve seen some slight upticks. Granted, inventory this past month was only up 3% in the region compared to the same time last year, but that’s better than being perpetually down every single month.

2) The wrong comps with new construction: With more new construction lately, it seems like some sellers are using brand new nearby homes as “comps” for their older homes. Let’s remember the new ones often sell with a hefty price premium, so they really don’t make adequate comps. My advice? Don’t get distracted by the brand new stuff. Try to find older sales that are similar rather than assuming buyers are going to pay the same amount as a new home.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 52 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):