Are you taking a vacation this year? It seems like half my Instagram feed is in Hawaii right now. I’m not doing anything that big, but I did get back yesterday from a few days in Santa Cruz and it was just what I needed. Here’s a video of me longboarding…
I guess I’m about a year late and I don’t have cranberry juice. Last day of vacay. Coming home refreshed. pic.twitter.com/ey4VQrSatY
— Ryan Lundquist (@SacAppraiser) June 16, 2021
Big market update: On June 24th 10-11am I’m doing a big market update with SAR to talk through the latest trends. I cannot wait. Sign up here.
Anyway, let’s talk about normalcy.
THE BIG POINT: It’s a good thing for people to find a normal rhythm in life with taking vacations and the kids getting fully back to school. Not only does it feel good to have a more regular rhythm after a pandemic year, but this is a step in the right direction for the housing market also to hopefully feel a bit more normal eventually. The real hope is for sellers to be more comfortable listing their homes, but that could take a while (especially since some would-be sellers are now wondering if there is even something available for them to purchase). Look, the market is still moving at warp speed and we are not close to a normal market. I’m just saying having more normality in life is exactly what we want to see because it’s a step in the right direction.
NORMALCY & SALES VOLUME:
1) A normal year looks like this: In a normal year we typically see the highest number of sales in June, though May and June trade places for top month status each year. This year I wonder if May will be our regional peak, but we’ll see. By the way, here is a free tutorial for how to make this type of graph.
2) It’s been a *normal year of volume so far: It’s been a pretty normal year so far in terms of the number of sales happening. Check out the red line (2021) compared to the green line (an average of seven years). Of course the black line represents 2020 and that was a wild year in so many ways.
* To be fair if we had more listings we’d actually be seeing bigger numbers, so there is an asterisk with saying volume is normal.
Quick note on slowing: At times it’s a struggle for some to talk about the housing market slowing down each year, but the market isn’t the same every month and the green life is definitive proof. And keep in mind volume slowing doesn’t automatically mean prices stop rising.
3) Volume is elevated in two counties: Since the pandemic volume has been up in El Dorado and Placer County. What’s going on? Well, buyers seem to be attracted to larger homes, newer homes, highly-rated schools, and a location a bit further from Downtown (but not too far for a commute).
4) Bonus colorful visuals: Here are some colorful visuals to show what’s been happening between January and May. As you can see sales volume this year looks mostly normal for the entire region and Sacramento County while it’s ahead in Placer and El Dorado. As I alluded to above, it’s remarkable to see a “normal” level with such anemic housing supply.
Thanks for being here.
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Questions: Are you taking any trips this summer? I’d love to hear. What is the market like in the trenches right now?