Tariffs don’t bother Chuck Norris & spring housing vibes

We’re seeing the spring market unfold, but it’s also been a more subdued spring. I have lots of fresh stats today and some thoughts on the stock market vs real estate, declining condo prices, Chuck Norris, and cancellations. I hope this is helpful.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/10/25 Yuba-Sutter Association (register here)
4/15/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
4/16/25 Enlightenment Podcast (live event)
4/18/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/24/25 KW EDH (private I think)
4/28/25 Socotra Capital (Zoom)
4/30/25 Anthony James Office Meeting (private)
5/8/25 Empire Home Loans (details TBA)
5/13/25 PCAR
5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
9/26/25 PCAR
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

TARIFFS DON’T BOTHER CHUCK NORRIS

We’re seeing an impact from tariffs on the stock market, consumer confidence, and it’s to be determined what happens to the job market and economy. The x-factor here is whether tariffs are going to be lasting or not. The sentiment last week was tariffs would drive mortgage rates lower, but rates have gone higher this week so far. Anyway, let’s keep watching by the week and being realistic about the housing market. What we want to look at closely is the number of buyers getting into contract. That’s where we’ll see the trend first, whether buyers engage or pull back.

NOTE: This isn’t political for me. Let’s talk about stuff that matters to buyers, sellers, and the housing market.

A QUICK NOTE ABOUT MINDSET IN 2025

One of the things I constantly emphasize is how important mindset is in real estate. How we think about things really matters, and I find people can get sucked into fear very easily today. When uncertainty is on the menu, it’s honestly hard to not feel stressed, and my sense is having inner peace probably isn’t going to happen by accident. My advice? As we talk about some cracks in the economy and a slowing housing market, keep cultivating objectivity to interpret the trends, focus on growing your network, take care of your mental health, and find buyers and sellers who have incentive to participate regardless of market conditions. Here’s a reel I made in November 2024 about missing hope and running toward the market. This sums up my message. It’s my sermon, and I hope it resonates.

DOES THE STOCK MARKET DRIVE REAL ESTATE?

The stock market has been volatile lately, so I’ve been getting questions about how this might affect the housing market. Well, the stock market and housing market are both tied to the economy, so there is a relationship, but I wouldn’t say the stock market drives the housing market locally since most buyers don’t derive their income from stocks. For instance, Sacramento didn’t drop during the dot com bust around 2000. Sacramento peaked in 2005, but the stock market didn’t peak until 2007. And Sacramento dropped in the ’90s while the stock market increased. All that said, we need to watch consumer confidence, economic uncertainty, and recession talk very closely. Moreover, there are some buyers using a 401K for their down payment, and I wonder if there is more hesitancy now. I also want to keep an eye on higher-end buyers who might be more affected.

ARE THERE MORE CANCELLATIONS HAPPENING?

Cancellations have risen in 2025, which isn’t a shocker since there are more listings in the midst of about the same number of buyers. But condo cancellations are basically at a high point over the past decade, which is notable. Compared to the number of new listings in Q1, about 14% of detached units cancelled compared to just over 15% for condos. Sellers, it’s good to see these stats. What does it take to get into contract and avoid becoming a cancellation? Hint: Proper pricing and negotiating with buyers.

WAIT, ARE CONDO PRICES DROPPING?

As I’ve been writing about, condos are having a moment right now. They are experiencing some unique headwinds in light of rising HOA costs, financing issues, and maybe even buyer preference (wanting a backyard at these prices). Here is Woodside Sierra in Sacramento, and while the single family detached market has been pretty flat overall, the vibe is declining for some condos. This is a good reminder that the market isn’t the same in every price range, location, or with every property type. I may push out a few different neighborhoods ahead. Let me know if you’d like to see that.

SEEING SPRING IN THE STATS

We’re seeing a spring seasonal market in the numbers. Since January, we’ve observed all the stuff we would expect for the time of year. More sales, more new listings, more pending contracts, larger homes listing for sale, etc… In terms of prices, most areas are up slightly from one year ago. Some of the smaller counties are down depending on the metric. I’ve lumped smaller counties into sixty-day chunks because thirty days is too erratic. Keep in mind the size of homes getting larger or smaller can change the average sales price and average price per sq ft (which is why I added average square footage to my charts). Ultimately, the best way to describe the market right now is pretty flat with sellers coming back more than buyers. Yet, it’s also really competitive for properties that check all the boxes. There isn’t just one word to describe every part of the market at once.

YEAR OVER YEAR

MONTH TO MONTH:

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