An open letter to overpriced sellers

Dear Sellers, if your house isn’t selling and you’re priced too high, I have some thoughts for you today. This is coming from a good place, and I hope there will be some takeaways for you. Scroll by topic or digest slowly. Let me know if you have any questions. I hope this helps. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
11/6/25 Private Zoom
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/13/26 Joel & Mike Event (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)
2/20/26 PCAR Presentation
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH

NOTE: The market isn’t the same everywhere, and there are portions of the country where prices are still rising, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. 

THE BIG TRUTH: BUYERS ARE HYPERSENSITIVE

If I could convince sellers of only one thing, it would be that buyers are hypersensitive about condition, price, and location. I know this is easy to gloss over, but if something isn’t right about the house, buyers simply won’t offer, and they’ll continue to be patient in waiting for the right house. This is why there can be multiple offers on homes that check all the boxes, but zero offers on ones that are overpriced. Buyers are paying big money today, so they rightly have huge expectations. Some buyers really don’t have the funds to upgrade a home either, so they’re wanting to purchase something that is already dialed-in, doesn’t need new carpet, has new paint, etc… Ultimately, buyers are picky about getting into contract AND staying in contract, so be willing to negotiate with them throughout the entire process. 

THE MARKET ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE

2021 was the most aggressive housing market we’ve ever seen, and it’s been challenging to let go of that. Back then, properties were flying off the shelves attracting multiple offers instantly, but that’s not the vibe today. Sellers were in control during those days and could demand almost anything from buyers, but today’s housing market is about listening and bending toward buyers. Check out how different the stats are right now compared to 2021 in the Sacramento region (many locations look just like this). 

THE PURPLE PILL IS YOUR SECRET WEAPON

It’s either the red pill or the blue pill in the movie, The Matrix, but in today’s housing market, it could be both colors combined. In other words, reduce the price if it’s not right, and also be ready to offer concessions to the buyer side. Concessions are things like credits for repairs or closing costs, or a rate buydown. Keep in mind, some buyers ask for concessions with the initial offer, but many will request once investigative reports start revealing issues about the house. This is why sellers need to listen to buyers throughout the escrow process. Don’t get stuck on the original contract price because that might need to change.  

OVERPRICING IN A DECLINING MARKET REALLY STINGS

Prices have been softening in many parts of the country, so when sellers price too high today, it really ends up stinging because the seller is going to have to lower the price even more to account for values dropping from the time the property was listed. 

IT’S GOING TO TAKE LONGER TO SELL TODAY

What’s wrong with it? That’s what we might have asked a few years ago if a property wasn’t in contract the first weekend of listing for sale. But today, it’s simply going to take much longer to sell. Here’s a look at the Sacramento region, and so many parts of the country look just like this. What does it take to become a sale today? That’s the question to obsess about. 

UNDERSTANDING WHY BUYERS ARE PICKY

Buyers today are counting the cost of a high mortgage payment in the midst of persistent inflation and increased economic uncertainty this year. Buyers are feeling the pain of the cost of groceries, eating out, healthcare, insurance, childcare, and so many other issues. It’s a real juggling act for many consumers to keep it all together today, and that’s exactly why buyers are being more discerning about what they purchase. This is why the price has to be right. Buyers simply want to feel good about the transaction in the midst of so many other expenses. Also, having more supply on the market has allowed buyers to be more selective and patient. 

THE PROBLEM ISN’T COFFEE & UBER EATS

It’s not the cost of coffee or Uber keeping buyers locked out of the market. I’ve seen that sentiment online lately, and I guess that’s the new narrative for Gen Z whereas Millennials were eating too much avocado toast. I think this sentiment ignores just how unaffordable the market is right now. The truth is so many older folks literally would not be able to afford the home they own if they had to buy at today’s price and rates. So, it’s easy to point the finger at young people while not recognizing how much it takes to buy right now. And don’t get me wrong. Spending too much on Uber Eats really adds up, and I think some people need to figure out a budget. There is nothing wrong with being frugal, and the reality is a lack of planning over time can be damaging toward building wealth. 

YOU’RE NOT GIVING ANYTHING UP BY REDUCING

Reducing the price feels so personal at times, and it’s easy to get tied to the original price and feel a sense of loss when dropping the price. But if value wasn’t there, then sellers haven’t really given anything to buyers. Some sellers say things like, “Bro, I lowered the price already, so don’t expect more.” Okay, but the price was too high, and lowering isn’t a gesture of generosity. Now the price is simply where it should have been in the first place. On a related note, one thing we’re seeing today is more listings aren’t making it to the finish line (increased cancellations). I think some sellers end up giving up because they can’t get the price they want.  

COMPS TELL US ABOUT THE PAST

Comps are like historic artifacts because they tell us about the past. What is the current market like? We have to look at what’s happening with pendings and listings to get a pulse on that. In other words, what’s getting into contract today? That’s the biggest clue into what buyers are willing to pay at the moment. We still give strong weight to actual sales, but if the market has gone down in value, we need to give stronger weight to what we’re seeing in the listings and pendings. My advice? Be realistic about what you see in the pendings and listings, and don’t get hung up on the highest sales. 

LOWER RATES HAVEN’T BEEN LOW ENOUGH

It’s been good news that mortgage rates are down from one year ago, but they haven’t dropped enough to make a meaningful difference with the number of buyers. Yes, we’ve gotten a few buyers back, but rates aren’t compelling enough to create a huge swell of demand like some have been expecting. If you don’t believe me, go to a mortgage calculator to plug in various rates, and even 5.5% doesn’t make a massive difference in the monthly payment. This is a sobering reminder that the math is far from working for many buyers, so we’re poised to see lower demand persist until there is a sharper change to affordability. Don’t get me wrong. If rates continue to drop, we’ll get more buyers back. All I’m saying is to not expect a massive market change from a modest rate change. 

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Questions: What stands out to you the most above? What did I miss? I’d love to hear your take.

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