It’s been four years, and there is NO equity

Home values go up by 5% each year, right? So, if you bought in 2021, you should have 20% equity by now. Yet, I just saw a listing get pulled because it couldn’t sell at what the buyer paid in the fall of 2021. Let’s talk about this dynamic. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (sold out)
1/13/26 Residential RoundUp via Zoom (register here)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
1/20/26 Carlile Group (private event)
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)
2/20/26 PCAR 
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR 

And yes, this is a Twilight meme. Sorry. Cancel me if needed.

HOW CAN THERE BE NO EQUITY IN FOUR YEARS?

Lots of people say things like, “on average, the market goes up 4-5% per year,” but the truth is recent years haven’t been average. When looking at the past several years, it’s been pretty flat with modest appreciation at best. There are multiple times in the past where the median sales price is exactly the same as today. This is why someone who bought a few years ago might actually have a similar value to today (or lower or higher depending on when they bought). 

Sacramento County:

Placer County: 

PLEASE DON’T BE RIGID ABOUT THE MEDIAN

The median sales price presents a pretty decent picture of the shape prices have taken in recent years, but not every neighborhood or price range is going to have this exact shape. In fact, the higher end probably has more equity since 2021 because that part of the market has tended to outpace the median trend. As always, look to the comps, and don’t rigidly impose any price metric on every single property.

HOW MUCH HAVE PRICE DROPPED SINCE 2022?

The median sales price is down 8% in the region from mid-2022, and Zillow’s price index for Sacramento is down 7.3% (their stats only go through October). This seems about right when pulling comps in many areas, and I think it’s a good general statement to say prices are down about 7-8% from the peak. Yet, don’t be rigid about applying this to every home and neighborhood either because these figures can’t possibly apply the same to every single parcel at once.

NOW LET’S DO A BIG MARKET UPDATE

For anyone interested, here are some market thoughts. Skim quickly or digest slowly. If you’re not in Sacramento, you might pick up some language for your area. Many locations around the country are having a similar vibe, and it’s all about continuing to discover ways to unpack what is happening. 

SOME LANGUAGE TO DESCRIBE THE TREND

The market is soft, but it’s not as soft as it was. The good stuff goes very quickly as about 25% of recent pendings are in contract within two weeks, but so many listings are just lingering if overpriced. I find it’s either multiple offers or crickets. We’ve seen softening this fall season as we normally do, but we also have a weird dynamic with sellers retreating. It’s taking about two weeks longer to sell compared to last year, and prices are down close to 3% from last fall. More stats coming this week.

WHAT THE HECK IS HAPPENING WITH SELLERS? 

This year started with great news of 20% more new listings hitting the market for the first four months of the year. The trend was clear. Sellers were continuing to thaw out. But then sellers began backing off due to increased economic uncertainty. Ever since April, we’ve seen dropping seller participation, and it’s become quite blatant lately. To be fair, some of this could be about sellers not being able to get the price they want, but this trend began before we had much news about negative price change, so I’m inclined to say this is more about economic uncertainty. The number of new listings has actually been lower than 2024 for four months in a row now. Yikes!!! This hasn’t made the market ultra-competitive again, but it has slowed the softness. 

SACRAMENTO IS NOT A SH*THOLE

Someone on X told me that sellers are backing off the market because Sacramento is a sh*thole. Honestly, this doesn’t even make sense. If Sacramento was a sh*thole, it seems like we’d be seeing sellers running for the exits, right? Backing up, sellers are retreating nationally in so many areas around the country, so this isn’t a Sacramento-specific trend. Here are new listings in the United States from Redfin data. Do you see how there was more space between 2024 and 2025 at the beginning of the year? And now there’s not. 

WHAT THE? 10% MORE ACTIVE LISTINGS INSTEAD OF 50%

How many homes are actually listed for sale? This year began with 45% to 50% growth in the number of active listings, and we were really feeling the difference. But here we are now with only 9.5% more from one year ago. The x-factor for shrinkage is sellers stepping back (and sellers pulling homes from the market too). Look, supply has still outpaced demand this year, but the market doesn’t feel as soft as it did earlier in the year. This isn’t just about seasonal slowing either. We’ve seen a legit change in seller behavior.

2025 ISN’T REALLY LIKE ANY YEAR IN THE PAST

Here’s a helpful way to describe the housing trend right now. What is the 2025 market like? Well, it’s not 2021. It’s not 2007. And it’s now softer than the norm in 2019. In short, 2025 is sort of its own thing. There isn’t one year in the past that perfectly represents the trend. 

BE CAREFUL ABOUT A PING-PONG HOUSING NARRATIVE 

I’m trying not to beat the dead horse, but median price stats can bounce around, particularly in smaller counties. This why real estate professionals need to be more thoughtful about price stats today. My advice? Pay closer attention to the largest local county (Sacramento), and also watch other data source such as Zillow, Homes dot com, etc… Ultimately, be careful about being rigid with median change. In other words, if you’re unbending about median change from month to month, especially in smaller areas, you’re going to sound manic like a game of ping-pong. “Prices are up. Just kidding, they’re down. No, they’re flat. They’re down again…”

SOME RECAP STATS

I normally push out stats for ten counties, but I can’t swing that this week since deadlines are insane. For now, I have the region and two larger immediate counties. I’ll likely push out other counties soon. Stay tuned. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR: 

MONTH-TO-MONTH

Thanks for being here. I hope this was helpful. 

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly.  If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: Have you run into situations where price look like they’re basically the same as four years ago? Or down?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.