buyers and sellers

The housing market isn’t all dull

August 27, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

The housing market has been softening for sure, but with all the talk about dullness, it’s easy to lose sight of the part of the market that IS moving very quickly right now. Today, I’m going to highlight the trend in Sacramento, and many areas around the country are experiencing the same thing.

A wooden sign in the front yard of a house with white font that says "the housing market isn't all dull."

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville

IT’S A MIXED BAG

I find either properties are getting quick attention with multiple offers, or they’re just sitting. In other words, the market is a mixed bag. I find this to be true in Sacramento, but it’s also true in many parts of the country as I talk with real estate pros. And remember, the housing temperature isn’t the same in all portions of the country either. For instance, the Northeast is so much more competitive than Florida, Texas, and even California now.

MAKING IT HAPPEN IN TWO WEEKS

Some properties are moving fast today. 18.1% of pendings over the past two weeks in the Sacramento region got into contract within seven days, and 31.5% got into contract within fourteen days. That might sound surprising to some who have only been hearing about price declines and softness.

THERE IS HOPE FOR THE LINGERING

There are some listings that are truly lingering, but there is still hope. 10.2% of all pendings over the past two weeks were on the market for 120 days or longer in the region. Four properties were listed for more than a year too. In short, if you’ve been listed for an eternity, there is hope of getting into contract ahead (but not without dropping the price).

BUT FIFTY DAYS IS THE AVERAGE

We’re no longer in a lightning-speed market even though some properties can still go quickly. On average, it took fifty days to get into contract in the Sacramento region over the past two weeks. This is FOURTEEN DAYS LONGER than 2019, and it’s been a huge adjustment for some who are expecting speed like 2021 (16 days). Keep in mind, it took 95 days in 2007 at this time.

Here’s the message for today. It’s going to take longer to sell. And some properties can still sell very quickly. Both things are true.

NOT HAVING TO REDUCE (THE GOAL FOR SELLERS)

Sellers lately have rarely reduced the price within the first two weeks before getting into contract. In fact, only 2.5% of pendings dropped the price during this time before a pending status was achieved. This tells us, sellers are getting into contract quickly when they price it right from the beginning rather than having to discover value through price drops. However, it’s very possible that many of these pendings will still close below the original price because that’s the vibe today. It’s just they were able to get into contract without a reduction, which is half the battle right now.

THE POWER OF CONDITION & LOWER PRICES

When a property is in good condition and upgraded, it’s a hot commodity. It’s these types of properties that can move quickly when priced right. About 60% of pendings over the past two weeks were under $600K though, so there is something to be said about lower prices being able to move fast. But 17.1% of pendings were between $700K to $1M and 10.3% were above $1M, and that shows us you can get it done swiftly at any price. Ultimately, the property needs to be priced correctly AND have something else buyers want in terms of condition, upgrades, or location (or some other special x-factor).

THE AVERAGE REDUCTION WAS 5.8%

The average reduction was 5.8% or $42,183 when looking at all pendings over the past two weeks. If you’re overpriced, how much do you need to reduce? It depends how overpriced you are. Recent pendings reduced anywhere from $500 to $366,000 before a pending status. My advice? Look to the comps.

SOME VISUALS INSPIRED BY TAYLOR & TRAVIS

Sorry. And kidding aside, this new visual might take a minute to figure out what the heck is going on. The idea is to help show days on market compared to the percentage properties were reduced before going pending (there are some price increases too). What strikes me is there are VERY few with price drops in the first two weeks (and that’s 31.5% of all pendings in the first two weeks). Also, I love to see sellers responding with reductions right away. I’ll admit I’m not big on reducing by $1 to get a fresh status on MLS. I like when sellers recognize the need to reduce by a few percent (or more if needed).

And the dollar amount instead. Overall, most reductions were under $50K (average was $42,183).

Okay, that’s it for now. Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: Why are some properties going quickly and others sitting? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

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Buyers will walk if the condition isn’t right

August 13, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 5 Comments

Condition is such a big deal to buyers. I know, that doesn’t sound like anything new, but there is a true hypersensitivity about condition in today’s market that we need to consider. Let’s talk about it. I have ten counties of local stats today too.

Skim quickly or digest by topic

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

8/19/25 Navigate Realty (private I think)
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)

WHY IS CONDITION SUCH AN ISSUE TODAY?

1) AFFORDABILITY:

Buyers have higher expectations about a home’s condition because it costs so much to buy right now. In other words, if they’re paying an arm and a leg, the condition better be tight. It’s not that condition wasn’t important in the past, but there’s a hypersensitivity about condition today that’s easy to underestimate. I hear consistent feedback from agents about buyers being turned off by dated homes (sometimes pretty minor stuff too). It’s not that there is just one thing, but buyers are far more sensitive about older carpet, whether a home needs paint, and they’re really noticing if cosmetic details are not tidy. There is no sense of desperation like we saw in 2021, so buyers are patient for the right house. Remember, value can change. Just as pools became more valuable during the pandemic, it’s possible that adverse issues today like condition and location could be a bigger negative adjustment. As an appraiser, my antennas are up about this, and I need to be sure I’m really studying the comps to reflect the importance of condition right now.

2) MORE SELECTION:

Buyers have the luxury of being patient and discerning since there are more listings. Locally, with 39% extra active listings compared to one year ago, this allows buyers to sift through properties before making a decision. In short, buyers are very picky because the market is allowing them to be.

3) LACKING EXTRA FUNDS:

For some buyers, they don’t have extra funds to upgrade the home after purchasing, so they need a home that already feels fresh. This is why homes that check all the boxes are a hot commodity in today’s market. So many buyers are looking for that one. And it’s not like a dated home can’t sell. There is a right price for everything. All I’m saying is a lack of affordability has bred hypersensitivity about condition.

ELEVENTH HOUR REPAIRS:

I was talking with Gina LaPlaca (Realtor) yesterday, and she mentioned buyers are requesting repairs at the 11th hour in a transaction to get more from the seller, and they are also tending to disregard timelines. I’ve heard that feedback from others also. Has that been your experience?

PICKY ABOUT STAYING IN CONTRACT

Buyers are picky about getting into contract and STAYING in contract. This means buyers at times will walk away over very minor issues (cancellations are up this year). Or when a seller plays hardball, it can be “the ick” for buyers – making them want to bail. My advice to sellers? Price it right, continue to negotiate throughout the escrow, and be sure the transaction feels like a win for buyer also. I’m not saying sellers need to concede to unreasonable buyer expectations. I’m just saying it’s time to listen to buyers rather than strong-arm them.

BIG MARKET UPDATE

WHAT IS THE MARKET DOING?

“It’s not that bad.” I’m finding that to be the reaction when some people see the latest stats. I get it since price stats in many local areas are pretty flat or even up slightly from one year ago. Remember, price stats can bounce around. They might be up, flat, or down from month to month. NO matter what, price change has been a slow burn, so it’s not like prices have plummeted. Yet, don’t ignore clear growth in supply, so we don’t just want to fixate on prices. Also, there are many properties sitting right now, so there is a sense of the market feeling much softer than stats suggest. Rates have gone down recently, but it hasn’t made a big impact on the local market. One interesting thing to watch is seller behavior. With increased uncertainty, sellers have backed off slightly over the past couple of months, and that’s helped the pile of active listings not grow as much. Ultimately, we’re in a market where prices are mirroring one year ago in the stats, and we can also say there is some brewing downward price pressure. I think when pulling comps, we’re tending to see slightly lower prices. But remember, not every part of the market is the same. This is why you might see appraisers not always checking the “declining” box in their reports.

NOT THE WORST EVER

We had the worst month of June sales volume since at least 1998, but July was at least higher than a couple years (what we expected to see). Is it time to celebrate? Haha. As I mentioned before, 2007 took a major beating during the second half of the year, so we should be able to outdo 2007 ahead. As of now, we’re barely down from one year ago year-to-date, but it’s important to recognize that’s because the first part of the year started out stronger.

NEW CONSTRUCTION WAS BETTER IN JULY

It’s been a tough year for builders, and June was especially brutal. But July did much better. This goes to show concessions and lower prices can work on buyers.

A SHARP CHANGE & UNCERTAINTY

Some of the stats are showing a pretty sharp change, and that’s the vibe with selling above and below the original price. There was an inflection point in the market in April, and we’ve seen that show up in closed sales stats now for three months in a row. What happened in April? Tariffs showed up. Look, this is not a red or blue statement, but consumer sentiment has taken a hit in recent months, and we’ve seen that affect buyer demand in the housing market. Yet, let’s not blame the entire lackluster market on tariffs though because that would be silly. Remember, uncertainty ebbs and flows. It doesn’t last forever.

GOING BELOW LIST PRICE IS POPULAR

62% of homes sold below the original price last month. That sounds stunning, and it is because we’re no longer at a more normal number for the time of year (which would be 47%). It’s become much more common to see homes need a price reduction (or buyers get in under asking even if the property does not need a price reduction before going pending).

YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS

I’ve lumped some data into 60-day chunks in smaller counties to help tell the story of the market. Stats can bounce around way too much if we’re only looking at 30 days (even 60 days may not be enough in some areas). I added Stanislaus County. Will anyone notice?

NOTE: Pay attention to square footage. Remember, if the mix of homes selling changes, that can change the stats.

MONTH-TO-MONTH

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you noticing about buyers and condition? What are you seeing in the market? I’d love to hear your take.

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A growing number of homes aren’t making it to the finish line

August 6, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

Many homes aren’t going to make it to the finish line. That’s the harsh truth that sellers need to hear today as we’re in a market of rising cancellations. A cancellation is when a listing is terminated and no longer available for sale. Is this the worst number of cancellations ever? What price ranges are doing better than others? And what does it take to become a sale instead of a cancellation? That’s the question.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

8/6/25 Wisdom Wednesday (register here)
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)

YES, CANCELLATIONS ARE UP

We’re seeing more listings pulled off the market, and locally we’re almost back to 2019 levels. The reality is the pool of buyers is smaller, so a growing number of listings aren’t going to make it to the finish line. But keep in mind, the total number of active listings today is 14% lower than what we had in 2019, so almost matching the number of cancellations back then is telling of a softer market today (duh, thanks).

SELLERS NEED TO ASK ONE QUESTION

There is one question for sellers to ask today. How do you avoid becoming a cancellation? In other words, what does it take to become a sale in today’s market? I find some sellers are listening to a softer trend, but many are still stuck in the past in an aggressive market like 2021.

BE CAREFUL OF SAYING IT’S THE HIGHEST EVER

The narrative sometimes is that cancellations are the highest they’ve ever been, but that’s not real. One of the problems with some data sources is their stats only go back maybe ten years, so “highest ever on record” doesn’t include a year like 2007 or 2008. A good example is from Redfin’s data about sellers outnumbering buyers. The narrative quickly becomes, “Bro, we have more sellers than we’ve ever seen,” but that’s not statistically true. Look, I have nothing but love for Redfin, and I truly like their stats, but if we’re only looking at 2013 onward, we have to consider what “highest on record” really means. I’m not sugarcoating here, but older stats matter for the narrative too. On that note, I present you with cancellations from 2001 onward.

MORE CANCELLATIONS AT HIGHER PRICES

Higher prices are more overpriced, and we’ve seen more cancellations at the top. For instance, 50% of sales this year have been below $600,000 in the region, while 41% of cancellations have been under this price point. In contrast, above $1M represents about 10% of sales, but 28.5% of cancellations have been at this level. Here are cancellations by price range. I can develop this more if there is interest, so let me know what questions you have.

CONDO CANCELLATIONS ARE EVEN HIGHER

I mentioned this last week. The condo market is softer than the detached market, so it’s not a shocker to see more cancellations. Condos are having some headwinds in light of buyers being turned off from higher HOA fees, there could be a preference issue with attached living, and there are insurance and financing problems in the background. I wrote about SB326 last week too. This doesn’t mean every condo complex is having the same problems, so look to the comps in each location.

Listing cancellations for condos aren’t higher than ever either, but there is no mistaking condos are having a softer moment than detached units.

BUYERS & APPRAISERS SEE THE HISTORY

Sometimes sellers play games by removing a listing and then putting it back on the market, but buyers still see the history, and so do appraisers. Days on market keeps counting in MLS too unless the listing is removed for at least 30 days (may not be the case in every location). By the way, if you didn’t know, the Fannie Mae appraiser form asks appraisers to report on the listing history, so all the price changes and such literally get spelled out in the appraisal report. This is a good reminder that lenders see the history. In short, there is no hiding.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing with cancellations right now? Which properties are making it to the finish line? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The market is a slow burn & checking the declining box

July 30, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

This market has been a slow burn. What I mean is we’re starting to see softer prices, but it hasn’t been really quick change like some sensational housing headlines might suggest. Let’s get into it. Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

7/31/25 Big market update & panel at PCAR
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBA
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)

UPDATE:

I wanted to clarify something. When I say the market is a slow burn, I’m referring to the overall trend. There are obviously parts of the market that are doing different things than others. For instance, condos have a much colder temperature. In coming weeks, I plan to do a Q&A about newer construction also (which has had bigger declines in some instances).

ARE PRICES FLAT OR DECLINING?

What’s happening to prices? Well, the truth is it’s not always easy to tell when pulling comps or making graphs, but some neighborhoods are flat while others are in declining territory. As an appraiser, I find myself checking the “declining” box in appraisal reports lately to describe what prices are doing (but not always). Here’s an example with Oak Park (excluding North Oak Park), and can you see how the blue dots are starting to point lower over time?

NOTE: I’ll share updated regional and county images soon to show the price trend, but today I only have scatter graphs. If you hate those graphs, then you might hate this post.

MORE OBVIOUS DECLINES IN CONDOS

I’m finding a more obvious decline in some condo / townhouse subdivisions. This doesn’t mean every single condo project is having a hard time, so let’s be careful about generalizations. But when I make scatter graphs like this, it’s been easier to spot a declining trend with these units. Many condos have been struggling with higher HOA fees due to insurance issues, and I wonder if buyers have stepped back more from attached living with tiny yards (there could be a preference issue). There is a new balcony law in California as of 2025 (SB 326), but I don’t think that’s the culprit in slowing the condo market because the trend started before this year. Don’t get me wrong. SB 326 could be a big issue in older condo developments with deferred maintenance (and balconies).

Condos have had a higher level of cancellations this year compared to detached units too. Detached units are still below 2019 levels.

DISCONNECT BETWEEN ONLINE AND THE MARKET

There is a disconnect right now between the crash bro housing narrative about plummeting prices and the actual market that is down slightly. Of course, market speed could change, and there is nothing wrong with that or declining prices, but to date it’s been a slow burn instead of fast change (more on that below).

FLIRTING WITH FLAT AND DECLINING

Like I said above, it seems hit and miss by the neighborhood, and it’s not always easy to tell what’s happening to prices in the moment when pulling comps. Look, everyone will be an expert with the benefit of hindsight, but when you’re in the midst of a trend, it takes skill and time to understand and articulate what is happening. Ultimately, some areas look really flat and others are experiencing more obvious downward price pressure. Keep in mind these types of graphs reflect sales, so any trend happening right now really won’t show up instantly in the data. So, this isn’t the perfect way to see the market (there isn’t a perfect way).

IT’S BEEN A SLOW BURN

No matter what, it’s been a slow burn today. We haven’t seen really quick price change like we did in 2007 when the market declined VERY fast in a short period of time. Back then we had almost 200% more active listings locally, so it was very easy to get quick results. That hasn’t been the vibe today. I’m not sugarcoating the market. I’m just saying we need to be realistic about the difference and not expect 2007 results with 2025 stats. Moreover, one thing we’ve seen lately is sellers have backed off over the past couple of months, so we haven’t seen as many new listings, which means supply hasn’t grown as much. This is important because the number of sellers (and buyers) can affect the way the market feels and what prices do.

CLOSING TIPS FOR TODAY

Beyond making graphs, I think so much of today involves comparing and contrasting sales and listings. Is there a price difference between sales and what is happening in the listings and pendings? Sometimes downward price pressure doesn’t show up right away in scatter graphs like the ones above, but we notice it first when pendings start to get into contract at lower levels. Remember to look for a pattern of pendings instead of just one example. We don’t want to pin our entire perception of the market on one property, right? Also, we might have to look at adjacent neighborhoods since there aren’t that many sales happening right now. County and regional trends have been flirting with flat to down slightly from one year ago, but that’s not always going to rigidly show up in every single price range and location. Yet, flat to down slightly from one year ago is how the market feels in many areas too. As an appraiser, when saying the market is declining and making downward adjustments, my adjustments have been pretty modest so far since change hasn’t been exponential.

Let’s keep watching what happens with seller behavior, buyer behavior, consumer sentiment about real estate, and mortgage rates. It all matters.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing with comps right now? Are prices up, down, or sideways? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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