housing market update

50 year mortgages & a housing market update

November 12, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 53 Comments

A few days ago, President Trump shared the idea of a 50-year mortgage, and it has set the housing narrative on fire to say the least. Let’s talk about this today without getting political, and I also have a big market update with stats for ten counties. Skim quickly or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/13/26 Residential RoundUp via Zoom (register here)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)
2/20/26 PCAR
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR

50 YEAR MORTGAGES: WHY I’M TALKING ABOUT THIS

I was talking about the fifty-year mortgage this weekend, and someone told me he was disappointed. I think the perception was that I was being anti-Trump because of my opinion, but real estate and politics collide sometimes. Besides, show me any place where housing is being discussed and this topic is not coming up. A few weeks ago I wrote about a tax on the highest prices in Sacramento, so was I attacking liberal policy then? In April 2021, I said mortgage rates were too low, and I suppose that could be interpreted as political. In fact, a loan officer unsubscribed and called me woke. Look, my goal is to talk about anything that can affect the housing market, and I’m hopeful we can have conversation without getting political.

MY THOUGHTS ON A 50-YEAR MORTGAGE

Here’s my take. A fifty-year mortgage can work for some people, but I’m not a fan overall for the general public since this doesn’t do anything meaningful for affordability as it’s a product that can help keep prices higher. This feels like a Band-Aid rather than a solution, and I would much rather see politicians talk about how to unlock supply rather than increase demand or debt. This essentially helps buyers purchase at higher prices today, so it seems like a product that actually favors sellers way more than buyers. I’m concerned about consumers being tied to debt longer and first-time buyers in particular having very little equity after a decade of living in the home (see an amortization calculator). Look, if the market appreciates over time, then maybe less equity is no big deal, but if it doesn’t, that’s problematic. Ultimately, the monthly savings look negligible with a fifty-year mortgage, so it doesn’t feel like a viable solution for the masses. Could it work for some? Of course. Is it good if we have more options in the housing market? Maybe. But we need the right type of policy. Not just any policy. I am all for stirring more housing demand, but not at any cost. Imagine if we brought back all the loans happening before the housing bubble burst. That would absolutely create more demand, but it wouldn’t be a reasonable way forward. This goes to show that we want the right policy. Not any policy.

What do you think? What are the positives and negatives? I’d love to hear in the comments. And please keep it civil and argue about politics elsewhere.

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE HOUSING MARKET

1) PRICES CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND

“We’re so back.” Friends, the median sales price is flat this month after having been down for five months. But please don’t say the market is back. My advice? Recognize the median can bounce around. I wrote about this last week, and anyone who wants to be a real estate expert needs to be able to talk about this stuff. Otherwise, the housing narrative from month to month is going to sound incredibly manic.

Price stats remind me of Nintendo cheat codes from the ’80s. Prices are up, down, up, down, flat, etc…. For Nintendo, you could get thirty lives in the game Contra if you pressed, “Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start.”

2) THE MARKET IS SOFT, BUT NOT AS SOFT

We’ve had a clear pattern of more sellers coming to the market over the past couple of years, but not so much over the two quarters. Some people look at the decline and call it seasonal, which I understand, but it’s more than that. We were consistently outpacing 2024 during the beginning of the year, and now we’re not. My thesis is sellers have backed off due to economic uncertainty. Whatever the reason, this is why the market feels soft, but not as soft as it did months back when supply was really growing. I’m not saying it’s aggressive out there, but it’s not as dull.

3) SALES ARE JUST AHEAD OF LAST YEAR

The number of sales is just ahead of one year ago. I think we can give this a light golf clap and be thankful for slightly more, but otherwise let’s be real that we’re having a lackluster year of closed sales. I’m not being negative, but realistic. I did a reel about this where I talked about what it’s like emotionally to work in real estate. Friends, put your game face on, position yourself for the market that is here, and be logical that we’re poised to continue to have low volume until we see a sharper change to affordability.

4) IT’S HIBERNATION TIME VERY SOON

Sellers and buyers start to hibernate around the holidays as December is almost always the low point for the number of new listings, pendings, and closed sales (sales bottom in January, but these homes got into contract in December). Anyway, it’s important to be in touch with the seasonal rhythm so we can know what to expect and spot anything abnormal. For buyers, be looking for listings that come to the market at this time of year because sellers are sometimes willing to deal. By the way, this doesn’t mean the market is completely dead for the rest of the year either, so save your hate mail. All I’m saying is we’re about to see the low point of supply and demand for the seasonal market.

5) A GOOD WAY TO DESCRIBE THE HOUSING MARKET

People sometimes ask what 2025 feels like, but it’s sort of its own thing. It’s not 2021. It’s not 2007. And it’s softer than the normal trend in a year like 2019. I think this is a really good way to describe the market right now.

And now some recap stats for anyone interested.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR:

Take price stats with a grain of salt sometimes since they can bounce around a bit right now. But be sure to look at the average home size (last row in each visual). Sometimes stats might be up, but could that be due to larger and more expensive homes selling?

MONTH TO MONTH:

Thanks for being here. I hope this was helpful.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What do you think of a fifty-year mortgage? What are you seeing in the housing market right now?

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Did the housing market peak for the year?

July 13, 2023 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

The housing market has likely peaked for the year. Today I’d like to show some ways I’m seeing this in the stats. I’m focused on Sacramento, but this is likely showing up in many markets. Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
7/20/23 SAR Market Update (in-person & livestream)
7/26/23 Fair Mortgage (details TBD)
8/18/23 Details TBD
10/23 SAR Think Like an Appraiser (TBD)

PRICES HAVE LIKELY PEAKED FOR THE YEAR

It’s normal to see prices peak around June. Sometimes it happens in May. I can’t say with absolute certainty that prices have peaked, but weekly regional metrics have started to go flat, so it seems very likely. This is the median price, and the average price looks similar.

Here’s a monthly view, and in a normal year we should see the trend turn down around this time. By the way, do you see how much closer we are to the peak from last year now? I’m seeing that when pulling comps too.

MULTIPLE OFFERS HAVE PLATEAUED

It looks like the percentage of multiple offers peaked in May, which is normal. June was actually a little lower than May, which is also normal. Since July about 55% of pendings have multiple offers, which shows the percentage has gone down more. The wild part is the percentage right now is actually higher than a normal year, which means it’s really competitive out there. We should see this percentage decrease ahead unless demand unexpectedly changes for some reason (lower rates).

DEAR SELLERS, WE MISS YOU

We’ve had over 6,000 fewer new listings this year in the Sacramento region compared to last year, and it’s been the x-factor in changing the feel of the housing market lately. We went from an ice bath last year to what’s felt like a bloodbath at times these past few months. It’s not that the market is normal, but we have a situation where low supply and low demand have met.

NOTE: Nearly 11,000 sellers have listed their homes in 2023, so it’s not like nobody is listing, but the missing portion is glaring.

HOUSTON, THIS IS NOT NORMAL

Here’s a snapshot of active listings on July 1st each year in Sacramento, and in a normal year before 2020, we’d have more than two thousand additional active listings. I know this is only one day, but the monthly trend looks similar.

BIG MARKET UPDATE NEXT WEEK

I’m doing a big market update next week. You’re invited. There is a live and webinar option. Register here. No pressure.

VOLUME HAS BEEN DOING THE LIMBO

Sales volume has been low all year, and it’s not just because of listings being down. Granted, if we had more listings, we would have more sales. But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room, which is affordability. The most significant reason we’ve seen lower volume stems from buyers backing off the market after mortgage rates shot up. June volume was down 39% from the pre-2020 normal. Here are a few ways to look at what’s happening.

NOTE: Volume typically peaks around June each year

MISSING ALMOST 5,000 SALES THIS YEAR

There have been 4,873 sales missing this year from the pre-2020 average. It’s been stunning to see buyers on pause. Yet, there have been nearly 8,600 sales through June that happened, and sometimes that’s getting lost in the conversation.

IF YOU WORK IN REAL ESTATE:

If you work in real estate, I suggest keeping your focus on the part of the market that IS happening rather than the part that isn’t. It’s glaring to see about 36% of buyers missing in Sacramento, but 64% of the market is happening. What do you need to do to position yourself to work with buyers and sellers who are here today? Who do you need to get in front of? What type of content do you need to put out? What skills do you need to add? What expenses do you need to cut? How can you increase the size of your network?

NEW CONSTRUCTION IS GLOWING

The resale market for existing homes has been struggling, but new construction has been raging. New homes growth has been vibrant this year so far. Let’s remember a big part of this has to do with builders buying down the rate and offering credits.

FOCUSING ON THE MEDIAN PRICE IS NOT A SCARE TACTIC

This week I heard someone say a focus on the median price is a scare tactic used by the media, but that’s silly. There is nothing sensational about talking about price metrics – including the median. Granted, we don’t want to obsess over the median and treat it like it applies rigidly to every neighborhood and property. That would be a mistake. But ironically, the average sales price and average price per sq ft are showing the same trend as the median. Should we throw out those metrics too? I say NO. The key here is to understand the strengths and weakness of each metric and what makes each of them change too. That’s what real estate expertise looks like.

PRICE GROWTH HAS BEEN PRETTY NORMAL THIS YEAR

The median price is up 10.6% in the region between January and June, and that’s a pretty normal number overall. Keep in mind this does NOT mean every property increased in value by 10.6%. The median price does NOT translate rigidly to every property and area. Keep in mind Sacramento County is up 6%, so not every county is going to show 10%. When pulling comps, I’m noticing prices are still down from the peak in 2022 in most areas, but prices have been getting really close again.

TODAY FEELS SENSATIONAL NEXT TO AN ICE BATH

After the ice bath fall season from 2022, it’s felt remarkable to see the market do what it’s done this spring. While the growth has technically been pretty normal, being next to a dull market last year is what makes these stats feel stunning. In short, we’ve had a definitive spring uptick.

APPRAISERS: For my appraiser colleagues, how did we do at capturing spring appreciation in reports and adjustments?

SELLING ABOVE IS STARTING TO FLATTEN

The housing market looks to have peaked for the year, but we don’t have a dull market right now. In fact, it’s been more competitive than normal lately. I know there is so much to unpack in these images, but the black lines represent 2023 and they’ve been more aggressive than normal levels lately (red lines). For instance, in a normal year we might see 42% of sales in June sell above the original list price, but this year it was 52% (still nothing like 76% in 2021). I wanted to mention this because sometimes when we talk about seasonal slowing, people assume it’s slow. I sometimes get people arguing with me at this time of year also about the trend. Friends, let’s look to the stats and realize multiple things can be true at the same time. The market can be slowing for the season AND be more competitive than usual.

NOTE: Do you see how the black lines have started to flatten? This is a sign of seasonal slowing.

SELLING OVER LIST PRICE STARTING TO FLATTEN

On average properties in the region sold 1% below the original list price last month. This is normal for the time of year as a percentage, and it’s way lower than 2021 when properties sold 4% above their original price on average. Do you see how it looks like this percentage has flattened? That’s typically what happens around this time of year (another sign of a seasonal peak).

UNDER 500K: Properties under $500K sold an average of 1% above the original list price last month in the region, and that reminds us the trend isn’t the same in every price range. And it was 2% over in Sacramento County.

Here’s another way to look at it. All the orange dots above the 0% line went above the original list price, and the dots below sold below. This is a good reminder that the story isn’t the same for every escrow. Remember, 1% below is the average, and that doesn’t perfectly describe all properties. Some units last month sold 20% above and other sold 25% below. But the average of everything together is still 1% below.

RATES MATTER FOR THE SECOND HALF

What happens with mortgage rates matters greatly for the second half of the year. If they go up, it’ll take demand out of the market, and if they go down, it’ll bring more demand into the market. I know, that’s obvious, but it’s important to consider as we look ahead.

Okay, this is getting long.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS

MONTH-TO-MONTH STATS

I hope this was helpful.

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: Are you seeing any seasonal slowing? Or is it getting worse out there? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Housing on steroids, slowing, & smaller homes

November 17, 2021 By Ryan Lundquist 20 Comments

Real estate has been slowing, but it’s still completely nuts. I’ll explain below. But first let me unpack the NAR conference in San Diego and share some exciting personal news. Oh, and let’s talk about smaller homes selling. Then stats and perspective for those interested.

This picture shows an asphalt road with the words "fast" and "slow" written on the asphalt. The top of the image includes the blog title

NAR Conference & my new BFF: I had the honor of sitting on an appraiser panel last weekend at the National Association of Realtor’s annual conference. I appreciated being asked to share my two cents and I’m so grateful to have met and mingled with colleagues too. Also, I met former quarterback Drew Brees since he spoke at the conference and he’s pretty much my new BFF.

This photo shows a few pictures of the NAR conference in San Diego. These are other apprasiers with Ryan. Though one picture has quarterback Drew Brees and Ryan.

500 days of no beer: In personal news it’s now been 500 days since I gave up alcohol. I said goodbye to alcohol for health reasons and I’m feeling really good. This was a personal milestone and now I’m targeting two years. At some point in the future I might re-introduce beer back into my life, but for now I’m taking some time to focus on health. This has been good. And my pants fit better too. 🙂

Slowing but not slow: The housing market has been experiencing definitive seasonal slowing and I’ve been talking about that for months, but at the same time the market is still so much more competitive than it usually is for the time of year. In other words, the stats are slower than spring, but they’re elevated way beyond normal for the fall season. On that note, when some say the housing market is crashing, I wonder if they’re in touch with how aggressive some of the statistics are right now.

Smaller homes: During the beginning of the pandemic there was a notable uptick in the size of homes selling. Initially I thought it was maybe due to buyers targeting larger homes to sort of quarantine in style, but now with the benefit of hindsight I think the real culprit was a spiked emphasis on more expensive (and larger) homes due to an influx of buyers at higher prices.

Here are a few visuals to show this spike in size in 2020 and now a slightly smaller size in 2021. I wanted to mention this because part of me wonders if we are starting to see a bit of the pandemic home size sizzle begin to fade slightly.

This visual shows the median home size and average home size in the Sacramento region since 2012. It has increased over time and there was a spike in 2020 in particular. This is a line graph.

This image shows the average home size and median home size in Sacramento since 1998. Size has increased and it shows there was a slight tick down in 2021 from 2020. This is a line graph.

This visual shows a dip from 2020 to 2021 in home size. It almost looks like 2020 was an elevated year and now the trend is getting back to normal.

Sharp size drop lately: There has been a definitive drop in home size since May. It’s normal to see larger homes sell for about half the year and then smaller homes for the second half of the year. The drop this time around though has been sharp and that’s something I’ll be watching. This could speak to a normalizing of the higher end market (fewer higher-end sales after a pandemic spike), but we need some time to understand. Stay tuned.

This visual is both a bar chart and a line graph to show the average sales price (bars) and average hom size in the Sacramento region (lines). This shows a seasonal rhythm to both over time.

No blog post next week: I won’t have a blog post next week because I’ll be thinking about family, woodworking, and eating pie. I am doing Run to Feed the Hungry, so I hope to see some local friends there. Happy Thanksgiving!!

Thanks for being here.

—–——– BIG MARKET UPDATE FOR THOSE INTERESTED ———––

This image says "Caution" and it's yellow and black. Then it says "big monthly market update below." Skim or digest slowly.

QUICK SUMMARY:

The market is so obviously not as hot as it was during the height of spring. Yet the slower speed today is still so much faster than a normal fall season. This is why I keep saying the market is like a car speeding on the freeway that recently let up on the gas. The car is clearly slowing, but it’s still going really fast. Both things are happening at once. Ultimately buyers have been gaining more power and it’s been a bit easier to get into contract, but there is a difference between easier and easy.

Some visuals eh…

YEAR OVER YEAR:

Year over year stats are important to digest, but don’t forget to look at month to month stats to understand what the market is doing right now.

Sacramento housing region stats for price, number of sales, cash percentages, and other elements.

Sacramento county stats for price, number of sales, cash percentages, and other elements.

Placer county stats for price, number of sales, cash percentages, and other elements.

MONTH TO MONTH:

Stats from September to October basically show more seasonal slowing, but not every category is slowing. Remember, stats around this time of year tend to bounce around a bit. One month prices might be up slightly and the next month they could be down slightly. And remember, part of prices dropping has to do with smaller homes selling. Technically the median price in the region has dropped 4% from June, but this does NOT mean prices are 4% lower in every area. Simply put, some of this price drop really has to do with size.

Sacramento region stats for price, number of sales, cash percentages, and other elements. September to October stats.

Sacramento county stats for price, number of sales, cash percentages, and other elements. September to October stats.

Placer county stats for price, number of sales, cash percentages, and other elements. September to October stats.

STILL SELLING ABOVE THE LIST PRICE:

Here are some visuals to show how properties have sold in relation to the original list price. In short, we are seeing more properties sell at or below the list price, but last month on average properties still sold almost 0.50% above the original list price. For context, 43% of the market sold at or below the list price last month (most of that is not below). In 2019 more than 70% of all sales sold at or below the list price though, so despite seasonal slowing the market is still moving really fast. It is actually highly unusual to see homes selling above the list price in October. On average homes sold about $2,800 above the original list price whereas in October 2019 homes sold about $15,800 below the list price.

We really don’t have an overpriced market, but some sellers need to adjust to the reality of a slower pace compared to April. Buyers, there is a little more hope for you, but you still have to bring a strong offer. Only 13% of homes sold below the original list price last month. In a normal market his number should easily be 20% or more. Hang in there.

A line graph to show the original sales price to list price ratio since 2018 in the Sacramento region A line graph to show how much buyers have paid in relation to the original list price since 2018 in the Sacramento region August through October stats for specific price ranges

This visual shows the percentag eof homes that sold above the list price from November 2020 through today

UPDATED VISUAL:

This is a cool visual I’ve been making for a few months. It shows how prices are distributed throughout the market. I actually corrected this visual since I made an error in Excel that pushed the columns over one bin (and that changed everything). Sorry about that.

TWO BRAND NEW VISUALS:

Here are a few new visuals to show how much buyers paid above asking price. I like this format because it compares multiple years at once. But I’m not totally sold on this either because 2020 was such an odd year and 2021 is so far removed from the trend. It just feels a bit awkward maybe. No matter what though, do you see how normal it is at this time of year to see cooling? It’s like the market goes up for about half the year and then things descend.

A BUNCH OF VISUALS:

In case you’re still reading, here are a bunch of visuals to digest. I’m playing catch-up after being out of town, so I don’t have any more time to organize these. Let me know if anything stands out to you.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Thanks for being here.

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

housing market update

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