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Real estate drama (and a market update)

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I’m not into The Bachelorette or The Real Housewives. It’s just not my thing. But I love me some real estate drama. I’m not talking about HGTV, but the housing market. I know that elevates my nerd status, but I’m hyper focused on fresh stats, ups and downs, and things that make the market move.

(scroll down for a big market update instead)

AN EXCEL FILE FOR CHRISTMAS? Today I want to share some new neighborhood visuals and I’d like to give you an Excel template so you can quickly make these images for neighborhoods in your area. Does that interest you? If I have consensus I’ll post a template with instructions next week.

DRAMA IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD: What can you tell me about this neighborhood (East Sac)? What stands out to you about the relationship between price and square footage, lot size, and bedroom count? I made these images in a couple of minutes with the template I mentioned.

What do you think? Do you like any of these images? Any ideas for something else to show in a quick template like this? Let me know.

UNCLE RYAN’S LAME GIFT: I know it’s odd to wrap an Excel file for Christmas, but let me know if this would be relevant. You can use it for studying neighborhoods, explaining the market to clients, or for newsletters / social media. If there’s enough interest I’ll make a video tutorial. You don’t need to be an Excel guru either. This is something anyone can do with a little effort.

FOX 40 INTERVIEW: By the way, I did a 15-minute live segment last week on Fox 40. We talked about Sacramento being poised to have the strongest market in the country next year according to Realtor.com. Watch here if you wish.

Thanks so much for being here.

Any thoughts?

———————- (skim or digest slowly) ———————–

BIG MARKET UPDATE

For those interested, here’s a big Sacramento market update:

MARKET SUMMARY: In short, we’ve been seeing the drama of a spring real estate season during the fall months. The housing market has been on steroids and the slower fall season we normally have just didn’t happen. Well, technically we are seeing some stats start to slow down as prices have gone sideways lately and we’re seeing fewer sales like we normally do in November and December. But here’s the thing. The “slower” stats are still so elevated from where they should be that it just doesn’t feel slow at all.

HIGHLIGHT REEL:

  • Half of all sales sold in seven days or fewer last month
  • For six months in a row sales volume has outpaced last year
  • We only have three weeks of supply (that’s crazy low)
  • We have the lowest monthly inventory in 15-20 years (at least)
  • Buyers made twice as many offers last month compared to last year
  • The number of listings has been chopped in half
  • Price metrics are up about 12-14% from last year
  • November 2020 regional volume is up 25% from November 2019
  • 63% of all sales had multiple offers last month
  • There were 53.6% more multiple offers compared to last year
  • Each sale last month had an average of 3.22 offers
  • Sales volume is up about 2% over the past 12 months
  • There were 106% more million dollar sales from July to November

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS:

You are welcome to use these in newsletters and social media with proper attribution. Scroll quickly or digest slowly.

SACRAMENTO REGION:

  

 

 

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

PLACER COUNTY:

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Oh, and sometimes Instagram.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? Any stories to share? Are you interested in my Excel template? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  2. Those first couple of graphs where you have sale price on the y axis hurt my brain. Good stuff as usual. Blown away by the sales volume during a pandemic. 10 years ago activity would have ground to a halt. Technology has made this year in residential real estate possible.

    Reply

    • Thanks Joe. Appreciate the feedback. I may have to switch the axis. If it hurts the brain, then that’s clearly the solution. I made this file real quick tonight. I definitely need to fine-tune some things. I do like the concept though despite an axis needing to be shifted maybe.

      Reply

      • Okay Joe. I updated the visuals. You were right. It’s funny because I NEVER put price on the x-axis, but I did here at first. Haha.

        By the way, for any onlookers these visuals are meant to show a big picture to show context and help us maybe understand a few things and ask questions. These aren’t meant to show everything there is to know about a market. For these visuals I wanted to get away from just dealing with a typical scatter graph to show all recent sales. I’m a little bored with that. What I like here is we can basically choose any chunk of time too. I only showed the past 6 months, but it could be even better to show just a few months. This is where we get to play around and figure out what works.

        Anyway, keep me posted if you have any questions or ideas.

        Reply

  4. Great information with a little fun thrown in as always. Throw a trend line on those correlation graphs with a equation of the slope and you’ve got yourself a little black book of adjustments that relate to everything but apply to nothing ;-D.

    Reply

    • Haha. Thanks Gary.

      Everyone, I actually added a few more graphs. I included some to show the sales price to original list price ratio also. I love this metric because it helps show the temperature of the market and what price ranges are experiencing the most closings over list price. Also, keep in mind I included six months worth of sales here. A template like this would be likely more valuable with 90 days AND competitive data instead of all sales in the neighborhood. But that’s where we just have to play around with something like this to see what is meaningful and not.

      Reply

  5. Even though I am retired I still enjoy your work. It really advances the conversation/quality of work when there is data available to display market trending, etc.; in the format you have provided. Merry Christmas.

    Reply

  8. Frankly, I find the vast majority of what you post, including your graphics, immensely helpful and informative. Your passion for real estate and stats never ceases to amaze me! I am grateful for the information you so generously share and find it key in my business. Thank you. And I am absolutely interested in learning from the Wiz, anytime.

    Reply

  11. Hi Ryan,
    I would love to have the templates and tutorial.
    I’m in the Sonoma County market where the amount of data is so much lower. Any additional ways to show trends are very much appreciated. I always appreciate your knowledge and humor. Happy Holidays!

    Reply

    • Thanks Debbie. I’d be curious to see others use this. Frankly I just created the template last night, so I’m also anxious to take it for a test drive to see how it looks from area to area.

      Reply

  12. Great visuals Ryan. I would love to have your excel template and instructions so I can choose the markets I work in. Thanks for your continued support of our industry. We embrace you!

    Reply

  14. Great graphs as usual! I love seeing my neighborhood broken out in such detail.

    Please provide the excel template and tutorial! I’ll use these graphs and new ones that I make to help educate investors that I work with on their exit strategy, provide conversation points with sellers and for my pleasure to just geeking out on stats.

    Reply

  15. Ryan, yes please! I sure would love stats, graphs charts for Placer County if possible.
    Thank you for all of your work.

    Pam Bliss

    Reply

    • Thanks Jerry. I’m glad to share. I’ll be curious to see if any of the visuals end up being useful on the neighborhood level. If this is a success maybe we can go for Round 2 at some point also.

      Reply

  17. Send it my way. Information is king if used correctly. I like the fact that you show OLP. A fairer way to look at a market. Please keep pushing the use of OLP.

    Reply

    • Thank you Vick. I am not a fan of the list price by itself. I never use it for any of my data (and I crunch a ton of numbers). I always push for the OLP. I completely agree about it being a fairer way to see the market.

      Reply

    • Right on Deniece. Thanks. I’ll work to push something out next week. I have the template made already. I just need to fine-tune it and make a video tutorial to explain how to use it. It’s simple stuff but there are some things to know.

      Reply

    • Hi Mike. My goal is to post it next week on my blog. I’m going to work hard to make that happen. You can download it and watch a video if needed on how to use it. Fingers crossed. Merry Christmas!!

      Reply

    • Thanks Kyle. Right on. Now I’m anxious to see if this works for everyone. Haha. I’ve never made a template like this to put out there. I know it works for me though.

      By the way, for any onlookers wanting to learn how to graph, check out http://www.sacramentoappraisalblog.com/graphs. I highly recommend learning how to make the multi-layered scatter graph at this link. I literally use this type of graph in every single appraisal report and I find it’s one of the most useful types of graphs for understanding the context of value in neighborhoods for the entire market as well as competitive properties.

      Reply

    • Thanks Jessica. I’ll get this out. Fingers crossed I can get it by next week. I can’t believe how many deadlines exist between then and now. That’s my goal though. I have the spreadsheet ready. I just need to make the video. 🙂

      Reply

  22. I love your graphs, they are just plain fun (at least the ones at the top of this post!). Id like a template too, please! Thanks Ryan.

    Reply

    • Right on Dana. Thanks. I’ll get something out next week hopefully. I love these too. I think we will see more value by pasting competitive data too. But what I like here is being able to see how the market changes by price based on various factors. These are all very general, but doing this in different neighborhoods can really help give us a little bit of insight. Hope you are well.

      Reply

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