Category — Market Trends

New unemployment stats are out for Sacramento County. The unemployment rate dropped from 11.4% to 10.5% from March to April 2012. This is a big drop for one month, so we’ll have to see what coming months yield to see if this is just a blip or not. Whatever the case, it’s nice to see the overall downward trend in unemployment over the past year. It’ll only mean good news for the housing market to keep seeing this number decline. Source: EDD.

Here is a graph of unemployment in Sacramento County since 1990 to give a panoramic view of the job market. It’s amazing to consider the history of where we’ve been (and maybe a bit depressing too).

Do you want to share these graphs? If you’d like to use these graphs on your blog or website to be a resource to your readers and clients, please do so. If you need a larger size for a presentation or newsletter (or your blog), let me know. Please see my sharing policy for details. As always, thank you for linking back to me and keeping my images intact. It’s a huge honor when others share my content.

What do you see above? Anything stand out to you?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

If there is one conversation dominating real estate right now in Sacramento, it’s definitely the shortage of listings. It’s wild to think there is only about a one-month supply of inventory on the market. This means buyers have had to duke it out (not literally) to get into contract. Also, multiple offers and offers over asking have become much more common too.

But why is inventory low? Is it because of a coming “wave” of foreclosures or a “shadow” inventory? Do sellers have less confidence in the market? Do banks have something to do with it?

I talked with Eric Peterson of Praxis Capital about the issue of low inventory. Eric’s company pays very close attention to the market as they flip about 125 houses a year in the Greater Sacramento area. Watch the video below (or here).

What do you think? Anything else you’d add? Is there a looming shadow inventory? If you are an agent, buyer or seller, what’s it been like in the trenches for you lately?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

I don’t read calculus books for kicks, but I do like numbers. It’s really interesting to watch the trends in our real estate market in Sacramento to consider where we’ve been, what is happening now and where we might go. Take a minute to check out these graphs below and let me know what you think. What do you see?

Not many houses for sale: We’ve seen a huge drop in housing supply in the Sacramento area. Check out the graph above of Sacramento, Placer, Yolo and El Dorado Counties. Source: Trendgraphix, Inc.

Sacramento vs. Placer County: It’s interesting to see Placer County and Sacramento County median sales prices juxtaposed. I’m particularly interested to see how the trend evolves in the next six months. There is a slight uptick evidenced as of late and the Sacramento Association of Realtors blog reported an increase in median sales price level in April also. Only time will tell to see how that further unfolds. This graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

The Unemployment Saga: How is unemployment doing in the Sacramento area? Here is a historical glimpse of unemployment in Sacramento County from January 1990 through March 2012. I keep a running graph each month like this. If you need a larger size for a presentation or your blog, let me know (just keep my blog URL in the graph and see my sharing policy). Data source: EDD.

Current Unemployment Trends: As of March 2012 the unemployment rate per EDD in Sacramento County is 11.4%, which is similar to the rate during June 2009. It’s been so nice to see a decline from the high of 13.2% in July 2010, but there has been a slight uptick lately as you can see above. Unemployment rates tend to fluctuate, so it’s understandable to see the rate experience a little increase during recent months, but we just need it to decline to see housing improve. Bottom line.

California vs. Sacramento: How does the Sacramento area stack up against price trends in the rest of California? This graph shows the median price in California compared to the Sacramento area. The graph comes from Joel Wright of Wright Real Estate (used with permission).

Distressed vs. Traditional Sales: The Calculated Risk blog has some pretty amazing content. Be careful when you visit though because you might get stuck there for a while. The graph above is used with permission and is taken from a post that deals with distressed vs. traditional sales in Sacramento. The blog post states, “In April 2012, 60.7% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up from 59.6% last month, and down from 66.8% in April 2011. This is lower than the last few years, but 60% distressed is still extremely high!” This is right in line with what I’ve been saying all along too as I’m cautious about focusing on smaller bits of good news in light of the overall context of the local economy and housing market. Granted, there are some positive signs with low inventory, small price increases and distressed sales going down, but we have a long way to go. Read more with two recent posts ”Juggling short sales and foreclosures in Sacramento” and “Weighing the distressed market in Sacramento.” Click HERE for a larger image of graph above.

What stands out to you? I’d love to hear your comments below.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

We are seeing fewer foreclosures lately in Sacramento, which is a good thing. But at the same time, the foreclosure rate going down seems in part be a result of more effectiveness with short sales. This is important for consideration since short sales are still considered distressed sales and very often sell for less than traditional sales and even foreclosures (depending on condition of course). As you can see in the chart below, the overall percentage of distressed sales has remained fairly similar over the past few years (but definitely down from stats in 2008 when a wave of bank-owned sales hit the market).

Is this interesting to anyone besides me? Or am I just a numbers geek?

For reference, The Sacramento Business Journal reported yesterday on a decreased level of notice of defaults (NODs) during the first quarter in both California and Sacramento County. Theoretically, if there are less defaults this year, we should see the percentage of foreclosures continue to decrease.

The Point: We are seeing glimpses of recovery in the housing market, but the market is still distressed. Let’s take any good news in context.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

It’s really interesting to look at the percentage of foreclosures and short sales among certain price segments in Sacramento County over the past quarter. Generally speaking, the higher the price, the lower the percentage of foreclosure, and the lower the price, the higher the rate of foreclosure. Why do you think there are more distressed sales at lower price levels? Why does the percentage of distressed properties tend to decrease as price levels increase?

NOTE: I wanted to show distressed percentages up to $1,000,000, but there were only 24 sales in Sacramento County between $650,000 to $1,000,000 over the past quarter, so the data was too sparse to really establish a trend. The data above $500,000 in fact starts to get really limited.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Twitter, subscribe to posts by email or “like” my page on Facebook

Anytime I hear hyper-positive news about the national housing market, I wonder if it’s spin I always sift the details through the local economy in Sacramento and the need to see the unemployment rate continue to drop to see improvement in our market. It’s been somewhat encouraging to see the unemployment rate decline from the high of 13.2% in July 2010 to 11.2% in February 2012, but I’ll feel even better once we see unemployment down a few more percentage points. I’ve been posting unemployment trends and graphs for quite some time, but the graph below stands out in my mind since I added an additional eight years (1990-1998) from my previous graphs. It’s amazing to consider what a wild ride it’s been over the course of two decades. The economy and unemployment have been up and down to say the least (sort of like a roller coaster), and hopefully we’ll have a downhill ride in coming years to get that rate down a bit.

Feel free to use this image on your blog, website or in a presentation. I do have a larger size available too, so email me if that’s relevant for you. Please just keep the image intact and feel free to link back.

What stands out to you about the graph? What time period do you remember most?

Property Tax Class This Week: By the way, on an unrelated note, on Thursday I am teaching a class at the Sacramento Association of Realtors YPC forum called “How to Appeal Your Property Taxes.” The class is open to SAR members and affiliates, but even if you are not a part of the association, you can come as my guest. Just let me know beforehand if you’re interested (send me an email, call or comment below). I’ll be talking about the nuts and bolts of property tax appeals, FAQs and advice for consumers from my experience consulting with home owners.

YPC Forum: “How to Appeal Your Property Taxes” – April 19, 2012 9am Sacramento Association of Realtors 2003 Howe Avenue, Sacramento, CA 95825

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

As a teenager I don’t think I would’ve ever envisionsed me saying this, but I actually like creating graphs based on research I do for my appraisals. I think plotting data visually can often provide a helpful context for clients and users of the appraisal to be able to see or interpret what has happened in the market.

A teepee or mountain graph: As an example, let’s view the past thirteen years of sales in the Northbrook neighborhood in Antelope for a particular single-story model (1943 sq ft). If you’re not familiar with this pocket of housing, it’s a smaller subdivision located west of Watt Avenue and just north of Elverta Road on the eastern side of the golf course. At one time the 1943 model was selling easily above $400,000, but today’s market has seemed to hover between $175,000 to $200,000 over the past year for a standard property without massive upgrades (there was one incredibly updated sale at $225,000 over the past year). I know such a hefty decline is hard to grasp, but values in this neighborhood are not anything out of the ordinary for the Sacramento area since most areas tend to be selling at 2000-2001 levels right now.

What does a graph like this say to you? What do you think it shows?

By the way, I don’t always break down model match sales, but while preparing an appraisal in this neighborhood for the IRS, I thought a graph like this would really help to communicate clearly to my client since there were not too many sales around the date of the death of the owner (which is the date I used to value this property).

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

Here’s an updated graph of the unemployment rate in Sacramento County through February 2012. The current unemployment rate released from EDD is 11.2%. This is definitely high, but thankfully lower than the peak of 13.2% in July 2010. The past few months have been flirting with 11.0%, so let’s hope we break into 10.0% at some point this year (that would be nice). By the way, feel free to use this image on your blog or website. Please just keep the image intact and feel free to link back.

It’s amazing to see a history of unemployment over the past decade, isn’t it?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

After completing a vacant land appraisal in Carmichael recently, I wanted to share a graph of land sales over the past 14 years. Below you’ll find all residential lot sales between January 1998 to March 2012 (acreage and smaller lots – anything listed as “residential” in MLS). These are only sales through MLS and not private sales that may have occurred.

The decline has been hefty, hasn’t it? Yet lots are still moving (just at very low levels). What do you see? Does anything surprise you?

While we’re on the subject of land, let’s take a look at nearby Fair Oaks too. It’s a bit of a similar trend to the graph above, isn’t it?

By the way, for anyone who purchased to speculate during the peak years of the market (or even build, but you got caught in the market at the wrong time and could not build out your land), I would suggest checking your property tax bill to ensure you’re paying at levels consistent with today’s market instead of 2005. I helped a client recently lower his assessed land value in Sacramento from over $1,804,000 to $340,000.

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

It’s interesting to see the sales history of a 4-plex subdivision in South Sacramento. There are 30 units off 24th Street in the Meadowview area and only 3 out of 30 units have not transferred in the past 4-5 years. Or in other words, 90% of units have sold in recent years. The purple dots below represent sales over the past 3 years and sales beyond that were labeled accordingly.

What does this tells us? This shows me how much turnover there has been since the bubble burst. For example, one unit sold for $560,000 in 2006 and then resold in 2011 for $155,000. It used to be really difficult to pick up a fourplex under $400,000, but that’s not the case anymore. Also, I’m reminded of investment strategy as well as risk. Some investors make purchases and then sit on them for the long haul before reselling, whereas others are looking to purchase and then resell in a relatively short time period.

Mistakes Investors Make: By the way, here is a video I did with Sacramento real estate broker Joel Wright on mistakes investors sometimes make when purchasing real estate. I think we saw some of the mistakes Joel mentioned

Holes in a Fourplex: I inspected one of these units years ago and it was an odd situation since there were actually large holes in the walls of each unit big enough to let me access the entire fourplex. I could simply make my way through each hole to get to the next attached unit. This was actually a bit on the creepy side though since the property was powerless, stripped and clearly had a problem with squatters.

Was it still four units or just one big unit? 

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

The Sacramento River is one of my favorite places because of its beauty. Every time I spend time on the River or appraise a house along the River or Delta, I have to remind myself to be content as I drive back to my tract home. 

Today I wanted to share some research I compiled recently during the course of an appraisal assignment along Garden Highway (next to River for those who don’t know). Here is a scatter graph of all single family sales on Garden Highway in Sacramento County over the past twelve years. There are not many sales of course, but it’s clear that property values have declined in recent years to resemble values nearly a decade ago (that’s a very common trend in the Sacramento area). The market has really struggled also to break the barrier of $1,000,000 lately. This does not mean all properties are worth less, but only that buyers have not paid above $1,000,000 for any listings on MLS in a few years. It seems too that some sellers will list high and then withdraw their properties from the market when they are not selling for the prices they want.

Do you spend much time on the River? What do you do? What stands out to you about the graph below?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.

Here is a glimpse of the unemployment rate in Sacramento County over the past 10+ years from 1999-2012. We’ve seen the rate drop from the peak of 13.2% in July 2010, and lately the county is flirting with unemployment around 11.0%. The most recent rate statistics for January 2012 from EDD shows an unemployment rate at 11.1% in Sacramento County.

What stands out to you about the graph?

If you have any questions or Sacramento area real estate appraisal or property tax appeal needs, contact me by phone 916-595-3735, email, Facebook, Twitter or subscribe to posts by email.