Home Appraisal

Sellers, you don’t need 20 offers

September 8, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 27 Comments

Sellers, getting twenty offers is the dream, right? That way you can be choosy about accepting the buyer with the strongest terms and probably a higher price too. But do you really need that many? In other words, can you get the same price with just a few offers? Let’s kick around this idea today.

THE SHORT VERSION:

1) No surprise. Getting more offers tends to lead to a higher sales price.
2) Sometimes just one offer can go way above the list price.
3) Homes with one offer also more regularly close way below the list price.
4) You don’t need 20 offers (but it sure does help).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Let’s look at some visuals and then consider some takeaways.

County Visuals: First off, I’m concerned these visuals are going to be confusing, so sorry if you’re thinking, “Dude, I only see dots and I have no idea what’s going on.” The goal is to show how much higher the sales price is compared to the original list price while considering the number of offers. Basically, when a dot is at 100%, it means a home sold at exactly the original list price. Or if a dot is at 110%, it sold 10% above the list price. Or 95% means it sold 5% lower than the original list price.

Question: What happens to prices when there are more offers?

The big plain truth: The truth is properties with more offers tend to close higher above the original list price than properties with fewer offers. Duh, I know we could have said that without the research, but it’s good to see what stats actually show rather than going with what we feel might be true. With that said, sometimes a home with just one offer can actually close at the same high percentage above the list price as a home with ten offers. So technically you don’t need ten to twenty offers to command a huge price (but it sure does help).

Neighborhood Visuals: Let’s check out some neighborhoods too instead of just the county. What do you see?

Conclusion: There are fewer data points to consider in the neighborhood visuals, but the takeaway is the same as the county (see above).

QUICK THOUGHTS:

1) 20 offers: If you’re getting 20 offers, it’s probably because you’re priced too low unless that’s what every listing is getting.

2) Aim for a few: Price it reasonably and you’re more likely to command a few solid offers and statistically be in the zone to compete above the list price. The reality is you don’t need 20 offers to get a huge price (but it helps).

3) Hang in there buyers: It’s not easy out there right now, but it’s worth noting not every sale is getting ten offers. It may feel true, but the stats don’t show it is.

4) Not everything is getting bid up: While many properties go 10% to 15% above the original list price, many homes sell below the list price. The narrative is Bay Area buyers are swooping in, paying cash, and everything is getting bid up, but that’s not true when looking at how many homes recently sold below the original list price (basically any dots below the 100% line).

5) Clear advantage: Having lots of offers gives sellers a huge advantage to be selective and accept contracts with the best terms (and probably higher prices).

6) Layers of the market: Not every price range is experiencing the same dynamic when it comes to multiple offers and getting bid up. This is why it’s so dangerous to take an experience with just one property and call it a trend for the market. Maybe. Maybe not.

I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: How many offers do you think is ideal for a seller to get? Why are some listings able to command a huge price even though they only get one or two offers? What is it about those ones? Any other insight? I’d love to hear your take.

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My health went crazy & so did the market

September 2, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 43 Comments

Long time no blog. I don’t know if you noticed, but I haven’t been around these past two months. Today I want to talk about why, say thank you, and then share some cool visuals I’ve been making these past couple weeks.

What happened: In late June I began to have an ulcerative colitis flare and it got really bad to the point I had to be hospitalized for six nights. Fourteen years ago I was diagnosed with UC and this is frankly the worst it’s ever been. Thankfully my flare is subsiding and I’ve since been slowly regaining energy.

I’m blown away at your support: This has been a difficult season for my family. It’s hard to not feel well and it was scary being in the hospital. But in the midst of this it’s been incredible having an army of support rise up. The cards, flowers, meals, text messages, advice, gifts in the mail, DoorDash, emails, prayers… It all meant so much.

An army of support: While I was in the hospital a GoFundMe was started by my friends Erin Stumpf and Joe Lynch. I’m honestly a guy who hates accepting help. I would never in a million years have asked for something like this because I always want to be the giver. So it was humbling to see my face online and to have my colon become internet famous (haha). I received a text message basically saying, “We’re going to do this and your peeps are going to take care of you.” And that’s what happened. Everyone, I cannot put into words how grateful I am for you carrying my family during this time. As the hospital bills start rolling in and I haven’t had income for over two months, your generosity has been a tremendous blessing. It’s frankly taken off some pressure and given me space to adequately heal. I still have lots of individual thank yous to say and I will get to those over time, so please be patient. But for now I want to publicly thank everyone for your support. I have no words to express how deeply grateful I am.

NOT ASKING FOR MONEY: I wanted to clarify that I am NOT asking for anything. I did not link to the GoFundMe on purpose. We have received plenty and I think we are good in terms of finances.

I’ll be back: I was hoping to be back to work the day after Labor Day, but these past couple of days I’ve been exhausted, so we’ll see. In the meantime I’m posting some visuals on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Okay, enough about me and my colon….

THE MARKET WENT CRAZY

While I was gone the market went absolutely nuts. In short, competition has been fierce and we’ve begun to see one of the most competitive markets we’ve had.

WAY TOO MANY VISUALS FOR YOU:

Multiple offers: They were up 25% this August compared to last year at the same time. As you can see, the percentage of multiple offers is at its highest point in recent years too since the metric began to be included in MLS. We started to see the market soften during the beginning of the pandemic, but then it sped up to create a V shape as mortgage rates went down.

Here is a new visual. What do you think?

Price reductions: This is another brand new visual. About 9% of the market had a price reduction last week. This isn’t much, but it reminds us the price has to be right – even in the midst of such low inventory.

Sales volume: We’ve seen a recovery in volume lately after a slump during the beginning of the pandemic. Usually volume tops out around July or August each year too and it looks like that may be starting to happen. This topping is normal for the season and we’ll know more in the next few weeks how the market is moving. Stay tuned.

Prices: Prices have been ticking up and preliminary stats for August so far show another increase from July. For a while the market was subdued and we were seeing year over year growth anywhere from 2-4%, but it’s been more like 8% and higher lately from last year.

Listings: It’s as if listings have been cut in half from last year. When I pulled stats at the beginning of September last year there were over 4,700 listings on the market in the region, but yesterday there were just over 2,200. Isn’t that crazy?

Six years of listings: Here’s another way to look at the number of listings. These are listings from 2015 through 2020 pulled on the first day of September each respective year.

Inventory doing the limbo: Inventory has been shrinking as I mentioned above. Here is a look at a few local counties.

Distressed sales have bottomed out: We are not seeing more distressed sales hit the market. There is talk about a new wave of foreclosures coming, but if that ends up happening it would take a while before anything actually shows up on MLS. Moreover, many owners are in distressed situations, but they are sitting on equity and could sell instead of give the house back to the bank. Let’s keep watching.

Unemployment: Let’s keep watching the job market and economy.

Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff. I may or may not put up a weekly blog for now, but I probably will since I have so much to share.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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Rates are low, but buyers aren’t going nuts

July 11, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 21 Comments

Rates and inventory are really low, so on paper it seems like the market should be booming. But it’s not. The truth is sales numbers are down despite rates doing the limbo below four percent again. It’s like the market looks hot on paper, but it’s also a bit lackluster in some ways.

Affordability: A big issue today is buyers are struggling with affordability. After seven years of price increases, we’re seeing the market become too expensive for many prospective buyers since wage growth has not kept pace with price growth. Some buyers feel uncertain about the future also, which is causing hesitancy about whether to purchase.

Hot couple analogy: The market is like a super hot couple that looks great on paper. They’re rich, attractive, successful, and they get a ton of “likes” on Instagram. Everything looks perfect, but then out of nowhere they break up because it turns out their relationship wasn’t as good as everyone thought. In a similar way, the real estate market looks stellar on paper. Rates are low, inventory is sparse, and it’s actually really competitive out there. But we’re also seeing weaker sales volume which shows us buyers aren’t as enthusiastic as we’d assume them to be.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. If I had to pick a few phrases to describe the market it would be competitive if priced right, modest price growth, slumping volume, and fairly normal stats for the spring.

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Prices are up, volume is down
It kinda feels normal right now
Price growth has been modest
46% of sales had multiple offers last month
Sales volume is down for the 14th month in a row
Low rates have helped change the feel of the market this year
Inventory is thin, but slightly higher than last year
The post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal: The market felt really dull last year, but it’s been a somewhat normal year so far in 2019. There are certainly concerns about affordability, but from a stats perspective it’s been a pretty standard first half of the year. Pendings continue to be strong also, so buyers still clearly have a strong appetite for the market.

14 months in a row of slumping volume: Despite mortgage rates being low we’re seeing somewhat sluggish sales volume. In fact, sales volume was down 11.6% in the region last month and it’s down 8.6% so far in 2019. Moreover, we’ve had fourteen months in a row with lower sales volume compared to the previous year. In my mind it’s still best to say we’re having a slower year instead of a volume meltdown because levels aren’t alarmingly low by any stretch. Let’s watch this carefully.

Dude, rates will never get below 4% again: It’s been a little surprising to see how low rates have gone again, right? The narrative for a while was, “Dude, they’ll never go below 4% again. We’ve bottomed out.” Yet here we are. My sense is if rates keep going down it’ll only increase competition and artificially inflate prices. That would be temporarily nice for buyers, but an unfortunate byproduct is low rates in a wider picture tend to create less incentive for sellers to move. Why sell if you’re sitting on a 3.5% mortgage rate?

Purplebricks & the tech invasion: Last week it was announced that Purplebricks will be exiting the United States housing market after a 75% loss in shares. This company is going to the grave in the U.S., but the reality is we’re still in a market where tech companies are trying to disrupt the traditional real estate model. Next up? Zillow is said to be coming to Sacramento by the end of the year.

Joe Montana’s $49M overpriced listing: Former Quarterback Joe Montana listed his property for $49M and it didn’t sell because it was profoundly overpriced. In fact, the price has now been reduced to $28M. Many sellers are like Joe in trying to attract mythical unicorn buyers who will mysteriously overpay for some reason. My advice? Be aware that today’s buyers are incredibly picky about paying the right price.

The dream of selling at the top: I met a guy who wants to sell because he says the market might top out soon. His concern is a friend sold two years ago thinking the market was at its peak, but it wasn’t. The truth is it’s not so easy to time a market perfectly. We talk about how simple it is to do this, but most people pull it off from dumb luck more than anything. The reality is the bulk of buyers don’t buy based on price metrics, but rather lifestyle and affordability.

This is a fascinating chart, right? It shows a few price cycles over the past twenty years in Sacramento County. I don’t share this to say prices are about to change directions, but at some point that’s probably what we ought to expect because that’s what markets do. They go up and down. For now price momentum has been slowing and we’ll continue to watch this closely to see how it plays out. Let’s remember the collapse we saw in 2005 was not a normal trend that’s now the formula for the next price cycle. That was a market built on fraud and rampant speculation.

The coming recession: There are lots of predictions about a coming recession, and at some point one will happen. But predicting recession specifics is a bit like predicting housing market specifics. At the end of the day we might have ideas, but we don’t know the future if we’re honest. Moreover, the last “great” recession isn’t now the template or formula for all future recessions.

Eyeballs vs offers: Over two years ago I wrote about a $250M listing in Bel-Air. At the time it was the highest-priced property in the United States, and it was called “record breaking”. But today it’s still on the market and priced at $150M. Despite going viral and having global attention this listing did not sell. This reminds us it’s nice to have eyeballs on a listing, but the only thing that matters is offers. Sellers, if you aren’t getting offers, it may be time to adjust your pricing until the market bites.

Preparing for a slower season: At this time of year we typically see the market begin to slow down. The sales stats don’t show it yet, but when July stats come out we usually see it starts to take slightly longer to sell in July compared to June. This is a clue into a slowing market, and eventually we see more slowness in actual prices (but it often takes a few months to see the slow trend show up in actual sales stats). This is a good reminder to pay close attention to pendings today because that’s where we see what the current market is doing. What is similar and actually getting into contract? That is THE question.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market has moved forward this year, but it’s been at a slower pace. In other words, the market has felt competitive this year, but price momentum has continued to slow. Remember, “slower” and “slow” are not dirty words in real estate. They are market realities.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick. What I mean is prices are up from last year, but not by much. Keep in mind the lowest prices are likely the “hottest” market in town too.

3) VOLUME SLUMP: The number of sales has slumped in the region for 14 months (and 13 months in Sacramento County). Overall volume is noticeably lower this year, but it’s still not outside of normal low ranges though either (see 2014 and 2015).

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

June volume down 11.6%
Volume is down 9.9% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

June volume down 13.4%
Volume is down 9.3% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

June volume is down 10%
Volume is down 9.2% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

June volume down 6.3%
Volume is down 12.4% over the past 12 months

4) PRICES TICKED UP IN JUNE: The market generally showed price increases last month, though they were pretty subtle.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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Slumping volume & rising inventory

October 11, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Volume is down and inventory is up. Is that a problem? It sounds like a question for a high school Economics class, but here we are talking. Today I want to kick around two quick thoughts and then dive deeply into trends. I hope this helps – whether you’re local or not. Anything to add?

Here are the two big ideas to talk through right now.

This could be a problem: If sales volume continues to slump and inventory rises without buyers absorbing new listings, it could be a sign the market is changing in a big way. No matter how we look at it sales volume has been down lately in Sacramento. This was the weakest September since 2007 as volume was 14% lower than last year, and quarterly volume was down about 6% too. But keep in mind overall the year as a whole has actually seen strong volume, so it’s not like sales have fallen off the face of the earth (but it’s a concern we’re seeing the numbers change over the past few months). Housing inventory is also up and we haven’t seen it this high since 2014.

This could also be a dull fall: Despite the numbers seeming gloomy right now, they’re actually really consistent with what the market showed in 2014 when we had an extremely dull fall season. In fact, quarterly volume that year was down 6% and September volume was weak too. Does that sound familiar? Also, we have a nearly identical level of inventory right now compared to then too. I don’t say this to sugar coat any red flags in the market, but only to give pause and say what we’re seeing right now could simply be a very dull fall season.

We need more time: The truth is we need time to see how the market will pan out. For now we live in the tension of not knowing the future and interpreting trends for the present. My advice? Watch closely, be careful of hyped headlines, and be sure to take a wider view of the market too (let’s not forget 2014).

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Prices actually went up last month. What the? Yes, the market is softening, but prices saw an uptick from August to September. That might seem confusing since we’re talking about the market cooling, but it highlights exactly what I’ve been talking about lately in that you don’t often see a market changing by looking at prices. You see change first in the listings and sales volume – and then prices eventually. This is exactly what’s happening right now.

Normal fall stuff: Last month it took longer to sell, the number of listings increased, and we saw a dip in sales volume. This is what we’d expect to see at this time of year, though the dip in volume was definitely sharp, which is something we’ll watch over time to see if it’s a byproduct of a dull fall or the start of a bigger trend. Beyond volume being down 6% this quarter, all the metrics look fairly normal for the fall. Well, they look normal for a dull fall season, that is.

Momentum slowing: Beyond a seasonal slowing we’re also seeing momentum slowing. I explain it here in a presentation I gave yesterday.

Interest rates rising: One of the reasons why we’re seeing volume slough could be due to interest rates rising. Earlier in the year it seemed buyers ran to the market in light of news of rising rates, but right now it doesn’t seem like buyers have their running shoes on any longer.

Buyers have more power, but not all power: The market is shifting to favor buyers, though sellers still have lots of power. Some buyers hear about a softening market and think they can make lowball offers, but that’s just not realistic. For instance, last month 40% of all sales had multiple offers in the region. That tells us the market isn’t dead despite softening. Buyers, did you hear that? Enjoy your newfound power, but you still have to bring strong reasonable offers.

Listings may have peaked: Overall housing inventory is up as I mentioned above, but it looks like the number of listings is starting to crest for the year. I’ve been watching listings closely over the past few weeks and it seems like they maybe peaked. We’ll know for sure in a month or so. This is exactly what we’d expect to see happen around this time of year, but it maybe seems like more welcome news right now. Let’s keep watching to know for sure.

Being technical about weak volume and inventory: Here’s the thing, we saw a very weak sales volume in September, and it ended up really impacting inventory levels. In fact, when looking at graphs the trend line shot up dramatically last month (see below). But technically what happened was the sales that normally would’ve sold were basically piled on to the number of listings instead, and that’s making the housing supply figure look much more dramatic. Ultimately the number of listings isn’t all that abnormal for the time of year, though if sales continue to dry up over time, then it becomes a much bigger deal to have even this number of “normal” listings.

Pricing lower this fall: Right now at the least it looks like we’re poised to have a dull fall like we had in 2014. These past couple of fall seasons the market simply felt a little more flat, but this year I expect we’ll see a more pronounced price difference between sales in the spring and the fall. Remember, if listings aren’t attracting offers, it’s because the market is no longer biting at that level. What is similar and getting into contract? That’s the big question, and when a fall season is more dull it’s important to be realistic about the need to potentially price lower. In other words, it’s probably not going to be enough to price a property 1% below the height of spring and expect a flood of buyers. Remember, it doesn’t matter what other listings are priced at if they’re not selling. The only thing that matters is what is actually getting into contract. That’s where we see the market.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from August to September?

3) What’s happening with inventory?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

September volume down 14%
2018 volume down 1% (January to September)
Annual volume down 2% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

September volume down 16%
2018 volume down 1.4% (January to September)
Annual volume down 1.8% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

September volume down 19%
2018 volume down 3% (January to September)
Annual volume down 3% (past 12 months)
Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely down lately.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 63 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening with volume and inventory right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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