8 things you can buy if you win Powerball (and the market in Sacramento)

Have you bought a Powerball ticket? It’s wild to think someone is probably going to win 1.5 billion dollars this week. Of course there’s an extremely slim chance you’d actually win, but if you do, here are some things you can buy when it comes to real estate. After that, let’s take an in-depth look at Sacramento’s housing market.

powerball winner - real estate - sacramento appraisal blog

8 real estate things you can buy if you win Powerball

  1. All current listings in Sacramento: You could literally buy every single active residential listing in Sacramento, Placer, and Yolo County (and still have about $150M left).
  2. NBA Team: You could buy the Sacramento Kings NBA team and have about one billion to spare.
  3. 63 million Shares of Zillow: You could buy 63,911,376 shares of Zillow ($23.47 per share).
  4. Buy an Island: This is an obvious choice for a billionaire. You could easily buy your own island. Heck, you could buy a group of islands. See some islands that are for sale right now.
  5. Own 7 Years of East Sacramento Sales: If you bought every single house that sold on MLS in East Sacramento since October 2008, you would still have 600 million left.
  6. Build a Sports Stadium: Most recent professional sports stadiums have ranged in cost from around $500M to $1.5B. For instance, the 49ers new stadium cost around $1.3B and the Sacramento Kings stadium is coming in around $500M. If you buy, what are you going to name it?
  7. Build a Bigger House than that One Guy in India: You may remember hearing about a 27-story residential home that was built in India in 2014. This home can withstand an 8.0 earthquake and it’s the second most expensive home in the world behind Buckingham Palace. Keep in mind it requires a staff of 600 to care for it. The property was said to have cost $1B total, so you have the coin to pull it off (Wikipedia).
  8. Do Some Good: Imagine the good you could do if you won the lottery. But we know that’s not going to happen. The great thing is we don’t have to wait to win Powerball to be generous since generosity is only relative to how much money we have – whether two dollars or $1.5B.

By the way, the winner won’t actually get 1.5 billion. I realize a huge sum is coming off the top right away for taxes and such.

Now let’s look at the latest Sacramento real estate trends.

the market in 2015 in sacramento

Two ways to read THE BIG MONTHLY POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 78 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: If I had to sum up the market last year I would say: Modest value appreciation, but aggressive demand. If I added a few more details I would say the story of the market is summed up as follows: More sales, lower inventory, higher demand, a fairly normal fall (though far less dull than 2014), and modest value increases over the year. Right now housing inventory is only 1.28 months in the region, which is 32% lower than last year at the same time. Overall sales volume in 2015 was 10.8% higher in the regional market, and it’s important to note FHA volume increased by 30% this year. In December it took 4 days longer to sell a home than it did in November, and that reminds us the market experienced a seasonal softening dynamic even in the midst of more competition. Remember though it was taking 90 days to sell a house four years ago, and selling in less than half the time right now helps us see the market can be different each year depending on inventory, interest rates, the economy, etc…  Overall most of the value increases came in the first two quarters of the year, and the market was fairly flat for the past six months in terms of value. Buyers really haven’t had very many options because of how low inventory has been, but at the same time buyers are exhibiting price sensitivity by not pulling the trigger on overpriced listings. One last aspect worth mentioning is rents have been increasing in many areas in Sacramento, and it’s worth watching this trend.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

  1. It took 4 more days to sell a house last month than November (but 7 days less than last year at the same time).
  2. Sales volume was 20% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 10.9% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. FHA sales represented 27.5% of all sales during the past quarter.
  5. Housing inventory is 41% lower than it was last year at the same time.
  6. The median price increased by 2% last month (see #6).
  7. The average price per sq ft and average sales price stayed about the same from the previous month (so don’t put too much weight on #5).
  8. The average price per sq ft is 10% higher than last year at the same time.
  9. The median price is 11% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  10. REO sales were less than 4% of all sales last quarter (Short Sales were less than 5%).

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

sales in 2015 2

Median price and inventory since 2011 by sacramento appraisal blog

bottom of market

fha and cash in sacramento county by sacramento appraisal blog - part 2

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog

inventory - December 2015 - by home appraiser blog

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County since the bottom

price metrics since 2014 in sacramento county - look at all

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. It took 3 more days to sell a house last month than November, but it was taking one week longer to sell at the same time last year.
  2. Sales volume was 14.5% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 10.8% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. Housing inventory is 32% lower than the same time last year.
  5. Cash sales were only 15% of all sales in 2015.
  6. The average price per sq ft, median price, and average sales price showed a slight seasonal dip over the past few months.
  7. The avg price per sq ft is 7.5% higher than last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is 5.6% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  9. REO sales were 3.5% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were only 3% of all sales last month in the region.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

sales volume 2015 vs 2014 in sacramento placer yolo el dorado county

prices in sacramento region - FHA and conventional - by appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

median price and inventory in sacramento regional market

interest rates inventory median price in sacramento regional market by sacramento appraisal blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. It took 6 more days to sell a house last month than November, but it was taking 5 days longer to sell at the same time last year.
  2. Sales volume was 1% higher this December compared to last December.
  3. Sales volume was 13% higher in 2015 compared to 2014.
  4. Housing inventory is 16% lower than the same time last year.
  5. Cash sales were only 15% of all sales in 2015.
  6. The average price per sq ft, median price, and average sales price showed a slight seasonal dip over the past few months.
  7. The avg price per sq ft is 3.6% higher than last year at the same time.
  8. The median price is 2% higher than it was last year at the same time.
  9. REO sales were 1.8% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were only 3% of all sales last month in the region.

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog number of listings in PLACER county - December 2015 Placer County price and inventory - by sacramento appraisal blog Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

I hope this was helpful and interesting.

DOWNLOAD 78 graphs HERE (zip file): Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file (or send me an email). Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: How would you spend the money if you won at Powerball? What stands out to you about the latest stats in Sacramento? How would you describe the market? I’d love to hear your take.

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7 goals for the real estate community this year (as illustrated by Star Wars)

Here we go. It’s a brand new year. A blank slate. What will your life and business look like in 2016? I know we all have plans for the year ahead, so as January begins I wanted to pitch in some thoughts on potential goals for the real estate community. These are meant to be fun, helpful, and provocative, so take them for what they’re worth. I snapped some photos of Star Wars actions figures to help tell the story too. I’d love to hear your take in the comments below.

1)  Say Something Different About The Market:

strorm troopers - by sacramento appraisal blog

If you’re in the habit of saying the same thing about the market all year, consider studying the market carefully and adjusting what you say throughout the year. It’s easy for both agents and appraisers to fall into the trap of using the same stale phrases, but getting more specific about the way the market behaves tends to build credibility with clients.

2)  Make it About Connections on Social Media:

storm troopers on facebook - sacramento appraisal blog

Let’s be honest. One of the sins of the real estate community is too much self-promotion, and this comes across loudly on most social media platforms. It’s easy to treat Facebook, Twitter, and other spaces like the yellow pages where we simply broadcast our services. Yet social media is all about building connections and creating conversations. Think about how you can add value to people’s lives this year online while avoiding nauseating self-promotion. Maybe take a look at what you said last year too. Have people been engaging with what you are saying? If not, maybe it’s time to mix things up or get back to a focus on relationships.

3)  Speak Graciously About Neighborhoods:

sacramento appraisal blog - star wars blog post

This might feel a bit touchy to say, but I can’t tell you how many times I hear things like, “I would never live in this neighborhood,” or “I don’t know why anyone would ever buy here.” It’s easy in the real estate community to gloss over statements like this, but the truth is they come across a bit arrogant because they demean neighborhoods and residents. Why is that person buying there? Probably because that’s what the person can afford. Let’s respect that and find ways to speak graciously about places people call home (even if we really don’t like the area). I’m not saying to be fake, but only to find ways to speak more positively about communities instead of ragging on them. Remember, your next client might want to buy in one of these neighborhoods.

4)  Learn How to Make Quick Market Graphs:

Looking at market graphs strorm troopers - sacramento appraisal blog

If you don’t know how to make graphs, why not make that a goal this year? It sounds like a scary thing to learn, but it’s very doable (seriously), and frankly it’s a skill that can help propel your business and understanding of real estate to the next level. I have a brief tutorial here, but send me an email too for some other suggestions.

5)  Remember to Say “CO” instead of “CO2” Detector:

CO alarms in appraisal reports - star wars - sacramento appraisal blog

When it comes to talking about carbon monoxide detectors, this is an easy mistake to make, yet still very important to nail for the sake of sounding professional. Remember, “CO” stands for “Carbon Monoxide” (a dangerous gas), but “CO2” stands for “Carbon Dioxide” (what comes out of our mouths when we breathe). Here are 5 ways to remember the difference in case it’s relevant.

6)  Be Generous:

being generous in real estate - sacramento appraisal blog

A generous person is a rare find. Be known this year for altruism, compassion, and responding in care when people need something. Not only does it feel great to live a life focused on others, but it’s actually really good for business. People want to work with others who are great at what they do AND generous.

7)  Be Prepared for Real Estate “Bubble” Conversations:

the force - by sacramento appraisal blog

Values have risen dramatically in recent years, and many consumers are wondering about a real estate “bubble”. Whether we are in a bubble or not, it’s important for the real estate community to expect and navigate this conversation well. How will you answer your client’s questions this year when “bubbly” conversations arise? In case it’s helpful, here are some quick points to shine some perspective on the topic.

Interview with Channel 13: By the way, here is an interview I did with Channel 13 in Sacramento a few weeks ago. Check it out if you’d like below or HERE.

Happy New Year! May this be a wonderful and rich year of life and business.

Questions: Which one did you like best? What are a couple of your big or little goals this year? By the way, did you see the new Star Wars?

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My last blog post of 2015

It’s been a wonderful year. Has it been for you too? I hope so. I wanted to thank you sincerely for taking time out of your day to read my blog. I hope it’s added some value to your life or business somehow, or maybe it’s helped you navigate the real estate road a bit better. Sometimes when I tell people how much I love blogging they think I have no life. But in truth this blog is about building relationships with readers (you), and that means the world to me. I appreciate the amazing people I’ve been able to meet over the past 7 years since this whole thing began. Thank you for hanging in there with me for another year.

Two Weeks: For the next two weeks I’ll be lying low with family, which means I’ll be taking the rest of the year off (I like the way that sounds). Honestly, this has been a very successful year in terms of business, personal goals, and relationships. Yet I find myself tired and emotionally done with 2015. Can you relate? I’m ready to close this chapter, get refreshed, and open a new chapter in 2016. So these next two weeks I’ll be enjoying walks on the beach, thinking about appraisals, building a few wood projects, catching the new Star Wars movie (no spoilers please), drinking as much coffee as possible, and savoring time with my lovely wife and sons. I’ll look forward to connecting with everyone again the first week of January.

Merry Christmas from Lundquist Appraisal Company

I took this photo at the Capitol building in Sacramento a couple of weeks ago. If you’re local, I highly recommend grabbing a hot drink and heading over to enjoy the tree while it is still there.

From my family to yours, Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!

Question: What are you going to be doing for these next two weeks? Any plans with family or friends?

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The housing market is like a…

I’m a huge fan of housing market analogies. Of course we can keep it plain by sticking to the numbers, but there is so much more flavor when we use a fitting comparison. Not only can analogies capture people’s attention, but they can also help break down complex ideas to communicate to the masses. Moreover, sometimes a funny or relevant comparison can open up the door to further conversation about trends. Today let’s take a look at some housing market analogies that complete the sentence, “The housing market is like a ….” Thank you to everyone who contributed to this post.

housing market analogies by sacramento appraisal blog - donut image purchased from 123rf dot com

Do you have any other analogies to add? I’d love to hear your take.

Donut
The New York City market was like a donut in 2014, strong on top and bottom and weak in the middle (Jonathan Miller).

Pizza
The Sacramento market is like a pizza. We are affordable, there is a piece for everyone, and even when we cool off a bit, we are still great (Barbara Lebrecht)

Matryoshka Doll
The market is like a matryoshka doll. Just as there are many little dolls within one large doll, there are many sub-markets within the larger market (Ryan Lundquist).

A market within a market - purchased and used with permission by sacramento appraisal blog

iPhone
The market is like an iPhone. Everybody has used it, some people use it too much, but few really know how it works (Gary Kristensen).

Coffee
Real estate is like a cup of coffee – too hot you’re going to get burned; too cold you don’t want to drink it; but when it’s just right you’ll probably have another cup or two (Michele Skupic).

Ocean Waves
The market is like ocean waves. There are many things that create the waves and their size, and it’s always changing – just like the many things that make real estate values move (Craig Dunnigan)

Stock Market
The housing market is like the stock market in that a home is worth what the market says it’s worth at a point in time; if a seller isn’t happy with the current value, he can wait and hope it increases, but as with the stock market, the value could also decrease (Dean Rinker).

real estate bubble - Image purchased from 123rf dot com and used with permission - sacramento appraisal blogBubble
When real estate values are inflated, we like to say the market is like a “bubble” because we think at some point values will “pop” or correct. Interestingly enough, the National Association of Realtors used to describe the previous housing “bubble” as “a balloon with a slow leak” from 2003-2007 (thanks Jonathan Miller for that tidbit).

Roller Coaster
The market is like a roller coaster…and we are hanging on for the ride (Paula Swayne).

Teeter Totter
The market is like a playground teeter-totter, it likes to be in balance, but adults keep coming along and screwing things up (Gary Kristensen).

Parent who Threatens Consequences (and doesn’t give them)
The Fed’s talk of raising interest rates is like a parent who threatens consequences but doesn’t give them. We all know interest rates will eventually increase in the future, but we’ve been hearing about an impending increase for years now. All we know for sure is rates will definitely, probably, maybe increase soon (Ryan Lundquist).

Relationship
The housing market is like a relationship, meaning it’s full of ups and downs. Any meaningful relationship has both good and bad days, right? That is very normal, and the same exact thing is true in real estate. However, one of the temptations in the real estate community is to talk like everything is always good as if values are always increasing (Ryan Lundquist).

Multi-Layered Real Estate Cake
Value in a real estate market is like a multi-layered cake since there are many “layers” in the market that help impact or create value. When one of the layers changes, it can change the rest of the market. See more here (this is my favorite analogy to use). Source: Unknown (though I first heard it from Dennis Lanni over a cup of coffee years ago).

multi-layered-cake-analogy-cake-by-Joy-Yip-text-by-Sacramento-Appraisal-Blog-yellow-text

I hope this was a fun read. Thank you again to everyone who contributed some thoughts. On a serious note, analogies can be an amazing way to describe the market, and I hope you feel encouraged to use them even more.

Questions: Do you have any analogies or metaphors to add? Which one(s) work best for you? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

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