Long time no blog. I don’t know if you noticed, but I haven’t been around these past two months. Today I want to talk about why, say thank you, and then share some cool visuals I’ve been making these past couple weeks.
What happened: In late June I began to have an ulcerative colitis flare and it got really bad to the point I had to be hospitalized for six nights. Fourteen years ago I was diagnosed with UC and this is frankly the worst it’s ever been. Thankfully my flare is subsiding and I’ve since been slowly regaining energy.
I’m blown away at your support: This has been a difficult season for my family. It’s hard to not feel well and it was scary being in the hospital. But in the midst of this it’s been incredible having an army of support rise up. The cards, flowers, meals, text messages, advice, gifts in the mail, DoorDash, emails, prayers… It all meant so much.
An army of support: While I was in the hospital a GoFundMe was started by my friends Erin Stumpf and Joe Lynch. I’m honestly a guy who hates accepting help. I would never in a million years have asked for something like this because I always want to be the giver. So it was humbling to see my face online and to have my colon become internet famous (haha). I received a text message basically saying, “We’re going to do this and your peeps are going to take care of you.” And that’s what happened. Everyone, I cannot put into words how grateful I am for you carrying my family during this time. As the hospital bills start rolling in and I haven’t had income for over two months, your generosity has been a tremendous blessing. It’s frankly taken off some pressure and given me space to adequately heal. I still have lots of individual thank yous to say and I will get to those over time, so please be patient. But for now I want to publicly thank everyone for your support. I have no words to express how deeply grateful I am.
NOT ASKING FOR MONEY: I wanted to clarify that I am NOT asking for anything. I did not link to the GoFundMe on purpose. We have received plenty and I think we are good in terms of finances.
I’ll be back: I was hoping to be back to work the day after Labor Day, but these past couple of days I’ve been exhausted, so we’ll see. In the meantime I’m posting some visuals on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.
Okay, enough about me and my colon….
THE MARKET WENT CRAZY
While I was gone the market went absolutely nuts. In short, competition has been fierce and we’ve begun to see one of the most competitive markets we’ve had.
WAY TOO MANY VISUALS FOR YOU:
Multiple offers: They were up 25% this August compared to last year at the same time. As you can see, the percentage of multiple offers is at its highest point in recent years too since the metric began to be included in MLS. We started to see the market soften during the beginning of the pandemic, but then it sped up to create a V shape as mortgage rates went down.
Here is a new visual. What do you think?
Price reductions: This is another brand new visual. About 9% of the market had a price reduction last week. This isn’t much, but it reminds us the price has to be right – even in the midst of such low inventory.
Sales volume: We’ve seen a recovery in volume lately after a slump during the beginning of the pandemic. Usually volume tops out around July or August each year too and it looks like that may be starting to happen. This topping is normal for the season and we’ll know more in the next few weeks how the market is moving. Stay tuned.
Prices: Prices have been ticking up and preliminary stats for August so far show another increase from July. For a while the market was subdued and we were seeing year over year growth anywhere from 2-4%, but it’s been more like 8% and higher lately from last year.
Listings: It’s as if listings have been cut in half from last year. When I pulled stats at the beginning of September last year there were over 4,700 listings on the market in the region, but yesterday there were just over 2,200. Isn’t that crazy?
Inventory doing the limbo: Inventory has been shrinking as I mentioned above. Here is a look at a few local counties.
Distressed sales have bottomed out: We are not seeing more distressed sales hit the market. There is talk about a new wave of foreclosures coming, but if that ends up happening it would take a while before anything actually shows up on MLS. Moreover, many owners are in distressed situations, but they are sitting on equity and could sell instead of give the house back to the bank. Let’s keep watching.
Unemployment: Let’s keep watching the job market and economy.
Other visuals: I have lots of other graphs. Check out my social media in coming days and weeks. I am posting daily stuff. I may or may not put up a weekly blog for now, but I probably will since I have so much to share.
Thanks for being here.
Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market right now? I’d love to hear your take.
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So great to have your blog back! I am glad that you are on the road to recovery and doing well. You have certainly been in our prayers and glad to know you are back to blogging. As usual, your stats and graphs are so great and in-depth.
Thank you so very much Shannon.
You cant keep a good stats geek down. I can see you getting all antsy and cranking out graphs on your couch LOL. Get well friend, the real estate market will be here when you are ready to get back to it.
That’s exactly what has happened. I’ve had a series called “Stats from the Couch.” I’ve had a laptop and I’ve been creating. It’s been fun. 🙂
Thanks for everything Mark. For those who don’t know, Mark was incredibly gracious in teaching a solar class and donating proceeds from the class to me. I’m blown away at your generosity Mark.
That’s awesome Mark. Truly stats geek would think that pulling stats from the couch is fun, Ryan. Love it!
Yes! Ryan is back! Well, almost, but from the look of all the stats you just posted, you are back. So happy to hear you are feeling better and so glad that we, all your admirers, could help you and your family out. Looking forward to the amazing 101% Ryan, but no rush, just take it slow.
Thank you so much Pia. I’ve missed all these conversations and I’m really looking forward to being fully back. It’s been a monkey wrench these past couple of months, but there are some really good things coming out of this too.
So grateful you are feeling better and good to see your info. Thank you! Wishing you a full and quick recovery. Blessings to you and your family.
Thank you sincerely Nan. I really appreciate it.
I did not know my favorite appraiser was ill. I am relieved that you are on the road to recovery. Lying in a hospital must have been doubly stressful for you and your family, worrying about not only the condition that brought you there but also having to worry about picking up something else awful while hospitalized.
The squeeze on inventory driven by both increased demand and constricted supply is greater than I could have expected. I’ll conjecture>
I can think of several demand inputs causing this increase:
1. Buyers with savings and safe, steady incomes have seen their opportunities for disposing of disposable income such as travel, entertainment, restaurant dining disappear. At the same time these Americans have benefited from stimulus such as the $1200 per person checks sent out in April and May. Those working from home have significant increased savings from not commuting, not buying lunch out, having lower wardrobe expenses, etc. With all the extra savings and disposable income for the lucky few, many of the lucky few have decided to buy homes.
2. Working from homes and apartments that maybe already felt small, has made those small homes and apartments feel even smaller. If you were already toying with moving to larger quarters, being confined for several weeks or months drove home the feeling that their homes were just too damn small. – inside and out.
3. In addition to suddenly feeling a need for more interior space, the lack of outside activities available has brought the amenity of a nice back yard forward as a new must have for many that ranked that amenity lower in their hierarchy of needs (wants) prior to the Covid pandemic.
4. For many the transition to working at home appears permanent, thus justifying the decision on a long term basis.
5. The flip side to tens of millions having lost their jobs this spring and summer is that a significant fraction of those millions have found new jobs, and a significant fraction of those new jobs require or facilitate relocation. Relocation due to a job change is another driver of increased buyer demand.
On the supply side:
6. Eviction and foreclosure moratoriums have kept distressed properties from coming on to the market. …. Yet.
7. Would be sellers that are occupying are less likely to want people coming through their house and possibly exposing them. Yeah, I know virtual tours, PEADs, offer subject to inspection.. all that. And tenants, already known for always being immensely helpful to a landlords desire to sell, are even more risk averse about cooperating with showings and inspections.
8. Despite the strong demand, shrunken inventory, rising prices, multiple offers and widespread knowledge we are in a sellers market, many sellers believe the counterfactual, that because the economy is in trouble, they should wait until “things improve”
The left wanted a big stimulus to help working people and poor people get through the shut down fed and housed. To accomplish that, to get Republicans to go along, a huge amount of stimulus money had to be thrown at higher income families and corporations as well. The benefits of lower interest rates is skewed mainly towards companies and individuals with stellar credit ratings. Trillions of dollars have been infused into the nations economy, not only to provide subsistence to workers and the newly unemployed, but also to provide excess cash to many economically comfortable people that is being used to pump up stock market and real estate values.
Did the pandemic stimulus create bubbles in the stock and real estate markets? Definitely yes. When will these bubbles burst?… or will they burst? or just gradually deflate in a controlled and safe manner? I sure would like to know.
Thank you Jim. I appreciate it. It was not an ideal time to be in the hospital. I didn’t even want my wife to visit. She came one time and we both decided we just didn’t want to risk anything in light of COVID-19. I’m just glad that is over. I never want to spend time in the hospital again – especially nearly one week.
Thanks for your commentary. That was a guest post pretty much and there is lots to digest. I think on top of your commentary it’s been fascinating to see inventory in San Francisco rise and companies begin to let employees work from home. This is not the main driver in our market, but it is a layer that is affecting us.
It is so nice to have you back and getting well.
Thank you very much Gary. I appreciate you support.
Ryan, I am so happy to hear you are feeling better! I’ve missed your posts so much. I hope that you continue to gain strength and feel better every day. Glad to have you back in the blogosphere my man!
Thank you so much Jamie. I appreciate your support. I have a post of yours in my inbox now too. I look forward to starting to digest blogs now since I missed these past couple of months of reading blogs too. 🙂
Okay as someone who has been and is still in the bull’s eye, Don’t get off that couch just yet. We on this side of the Blog appreciate all you do for us. But I am thinking that right now we can survive a little longer with you healing. So listen to your Wife and Doctors. Don’t make me ride up on horseback to give you a whoop’in for over doing it. You stay safe and take it easy my friend. All my best to you.
Thanks Brad. I appreciate your phone call yesterday also. I do need to keep taking it easy and not rush things. I’m a really driven person though. I’ll be sure to listen to my body (and my wife). At the same time I’m anxious to find normalcy again. Frankly it will take months to feel 100%, so I cannot wait until I’m all the way better. But I need to be well enough before adding too much stress. I know that. I sure don’t want you to ride up on horseback… 🙂
okay as long as we have an understanding. Be safe.
Keeping you in my prayers. Hope you feel better soon! ?? And, thank you for always sharing your knowledge and insight in today’s market.
Thank you so much. I appreciate your support.
Up here in rural Oregon (NOT Portland) my realtor friend said that every house is getting offers for $10,000 – $15,000 MORE than the asking price. Too many people leaving the crazy city and want to live a small-town life.
Thanks Jane. That’s wild to hear. I’m guessing inventory is thin there like many places across the country. There is a very real dynamic of people leaving and looking for space and peace. That sure sounds nice… 🙂
I’ve been on Facebook hiatus, but I was just thinking yesterday it had been a while since I’ve seen one of your blog post emails. Glad you’re on the mend–gut issues are terrible.
Thanks George. I hope your Facebook hiatus has added peace into your life too. 🙂
Ryan,
I wasn’t aware that you were having health issues.
Sending you healing energy to speed up the recovery process now.
Charlie Robinson
Thanks so much Charlie. I appreciate it. I’m just so thankful to be on the mend and very close to getting back to work. Hope you are well.
Ryan … three quick things …
1. Glad you are back and getting better.
2. Thanks for the latest TON of great, useful info.
3. Keep up the great work rock star!
Thank you so much Andy. I appreciate you. I have lots more to share too. It’s been quite the task to catch up on stats after being away for two months. I’m almost there though. 🙂
Ryan,
Wow what a tough time. I had no idea.
So happy to hear you are better.
Missed your happy face and good attitude during all this mess we have been going through.
Its a crazy time in lots of ways but you just made me think about the saying. If you don’t have your health you dont have anything. For you at least you had family and good friends. Hang in there. Gayla
Thank you Gayla. I really appreciate it. That saying makes sense. Having good health is easy to take for granted.
Glad to see your ok and happy to see your Blog!
Thank you Zoritha. I appreciate it. I actually get to go inspect a property today. 🙂 Technically this is something I appraised last year. They need a new value soon, so I’ll do a quick walk-through. It’s good to get my feet wet. I’ll be drenched very soon. Hope you’re well.
Glad to have you back, Ryan! I was wondering what happened.
Thank you Paul.
OMG, Ryan! I’m so happy to hear you’re on the mend! I thought you were just taking a break from the crazy pandemic world we’re living in, the ups and the downs.
I’m glad you’re back, you deserve every bit of support you’ve received, hang in there and stay healthy and safe!
Hi Bev. Thank you so much. I really appreciate your kind words. I actually had my first full day of work yesterday and it felt great. I am incredibly thankful. I hope you are well. It is crazy out there. I think we all need to figure out ways to stay well physically, mentally, etc… It won’t happen without intention.
Welcome back! Good to hear you’re feeling better and on the mend.
Thank you sincerely. It’s great to be back. 🙂
Great to see you back to blogging, Ryan. I truely missed reading the blog while you were sick. Take care and blog on!
Thanks Tom. I appreciate it so much. I’m looking forward to being back in a rhythm of reading your blog too now that I’m up and running.
Ryan, you are my go to expert here in Southern Ca. I’m so glad that in these difficult times the light shown on you and your family and your peers stepped in to help. It’s a wonderful thing. Thank you so much for all you do for our industry. Sending big healing hugs and best wishes for a speedy recovery.
Thank you so much. The support from peers and the real estate community has been incredible. I still have hundreds of people to individually thank. 🙂