The housing market went from steaming to stagnant a few months ago, and now it seems to be slowing down a bit. Now that some time has passed, we’re getting more stats, so let’s crunch some numbers to show what’s happening with sales volume. By the way, I have a free download if you want to make charts like this.
FREE TEMPLATE DOWNLOAD:
If you like the tables below, click here to download an Excel template to make visuals like this for your area. Just plug in the information from your MLS and the template will do the math for you. I included a longer table and a shorter one. Maybe focus on local cities or ZIP codes, or surrounding counties. Make sure you have enough data to be meaningful. I hope this helps.
A NEW MEME:
Sellers, it’s a much different market today…
SLUMPING SALES VOLUME IS THE BIG TREND:
It’s not a shocker that buyers started to back off the market when mortgage rates shot up earlier in the year. And now that we have a few months of sales under our belt, let’s take a look at actual numbers comparing May to August this year with last year. In short, most areas easily saw 20-30% fewer sales, though the trend isn’t the same everywhere. Keep in mind the numbers can be wonky when there aren’t many sales (so take some areas with a grain of salt).
NOTE: Thank you to those who asked for various areas on my social channels last week. I think I got to mostly everything. I can try to get to a few others in the comments, so don’t be afraid to ask.
EL DORADO COUNTY:
WE NEED TIME TO SEE THE TREND:
As time goes by it’ll become more apparent how various price ranges and locations are faring in today’s market. But for now, I hope these stats will at least give a small window into demand, and maybe clues about some different price points. Or maybe they’ll prod us to investigate some areas more.
IS THE MARKET STARTING TO LEVEL OFF?
Since June we’ve seen fewer new listings in the Sacramento area, and that seems to be giving a bit of space for buyers and sellers to adjust to change. It’s as if some stats are starting to go slightly more horizontal lately instead of showing the really sharp change we saw from May to June. In other words, a sharp drop isn’t going to show up in the numbers every single month. For instance, the number of pending contracts has been somewhat flat for the past month or so instead of seeing the same steep May to June decline. Granted, we’re still WAY down from last year, but the May to June rate of change didn’t persist in August. Also, price reductions have been somewhat flat over the past few weeks. I mean, half of actives have had a price drop, so clearly, we have an overpriced market. All I’m saying is it looks like we’re starting to see price reduction growth slowing down or leveling off. Ultimately, we need time to see the trend, so let’s keep watching. Keep in mind that not all stats are leveling off. I’m just saying some of them appear to have flattened. And lastly, if rates shoot up in coming weeks, all bets are off because that could change the dynamic…
Let’s keep watching.
Thanks for being here.
Questions: What stands out to you most? Are you seeing any differences in the market depending on price point or location? I’d love to hear your take.