The spring market is awake. Today I want to talk about some trends I’m seeing, debunk a myth, and share some super random stats involving pickleball, Starbucks, and other stuff (sorry). Haha.
UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
01/31/24 Joel Wright & Mike Gobbi Event 9am (on Zoom here)
02/01/24 Gateway Event (private)
2/09/24 PCAR WCR Event (11:30am-1pm (more details))
2/13/24 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting 9am
2/21/24 Matt the Mortgage Guy YouTube Live
3/11/24 Yolo Association of Realtors (YAR only)
3/21/24 2024 Market Update for Brent Gove Team (big event free)
3/26/24 Orangevale MLS meeting 9am
3/27/24 SAFE Credit Union Lunch & Learn (TBA)
4/11/24 Lindsay Carlisle Event (private)
4/25/24 HomeSmart iCare Realty (details TBA)
THE SPRING MARKET IS WAKING UP
The market typically starts to wake up in January, and then we really see things kick into high gear by March when more new listings and more pendings really start to happen. But right now, we’re seeing an uptick in new listings, more bidding wars, and buyers pouncing on the good stuff so to speak. Keep in mind it takes a couple of months before today’s pendings start to close, so there is a lag in seeing a hotter market in the sales data.
THIS IS NOT 2021 THOUGH:
Let me clarify that this is NOT the insanely hot housing market we had in 2021, so let’s keep things in perspective here.
NEW LISTINGS COULD OUTPACE LAST JANUARY
New listings are starting to increase as the spring market takes off. Basically, they’ve been flirting with January 2023 levels, and as of now it looks like they could just outpace last year (we’ll know for sure in two weeks). Keep in mind, January 2023 was the lowest January ever, so we are NOT seeing sellers rush the market today. Yet, more new listings are exactly what we want to see happen. I mentioned in my 2024 outlook that this year is poised to be far from normal with the number of sales and listings, but the hope is to see more.
A HOUSING MARKET MYTH:
The summer has the hottest temperature, but summer is NOT the hottest time in the housing market like so many sellers believe. Locally, we see prices usually peak in June, it starts to take longer to sell in the summer for the rest of the year, and the number of new listings and pending contracts usually climax in May. In short, by mid-summer, we’ve basically peaked for the year statistically. On that note, sellers should list whenever they want. No pressure from me. Yes, demand is at the height during the spring, but sellers aren’t always ready to list then. My advice? Do what you need to do. You can sell in any season as long as you are priced for the market.
BIDDING WARS ARE PICKING UP:
Do you see the dotted line on the right side of the graph? That’s the percentage of multiple offers based on what I’m seeing in pending contracts so far. This shows us demand is heating up for the spring as the percentage of multiple offers has increased. Keep in mind, the percentage of sales with multiple offers tends to peak in April or May each year, which complements my point about the summer NOT being the hottest market. Also, these are closed sales, so the percentage of multiple offers technically peaks in the pendings in March or April before these properties close in April or May.
PENDINGS ARE LIFTING OFF THE GROUND:
We’re starting to see the number of pendings tick up as the year begins, and here’s a cool way to look at pendings so far. For instance, 61.1% of pendings so far have been below $600K. My advice? For anyone who works in real estate, be in touch with where the action is happening, and position yourself for that. And sellers, be aware that not all price points are going to have the same temperature or number of buyers (overpricing can happen in any range).
Here’s a way to look at the number of pendings so far in the region for the month of January only. We’re hovering around half the number from last year. Keep in mind it takes a little extra time for pendings to be counted since properties need to be exposed on the market before getting into contract.
WATCH THE GAP:
All that said, I’m going to be watching new listings vs pendings closely ahead. If the gap starts to widen with notably more new listings than pendings, that can soften the market. Only time will tell.
Anyway, those are just a few things on my mind about 2024. Let’s keep in touch, and please let me know what you’re seeing out there.
RANDOM STUFF
As promised, here’s some random stuff. I can’t help myself. This is what tickles my funny bone, and I’m also intrigued with real estate marketing.
HONEY, STOP THE CAR:
Just for fun. Here’s how many times the phrase, “Honey, stop the car,” has been used in our local MLS. Haha. On a serious note, this was barely used last year, and I’m concerned. Could we see a 2024 rebound? Fingers crossed.
PICKLEBALL IS ALL THE RAGE:
The sport of pickleball has grown in popularity, so it’s no surprise we’re seeing more mentions in MLS. Honestly, what’s stunning though is to see so many mentions in 2023 despite 40% fewer sales last year. Here’s a pickleball post and interview I did a few months back.
STARBUCKS MENTIONS IN REAL ESTATE LISTINGS:
Is Starbucks a selling point? At what price range? The number of mentions has really grown through the years. Keep in mind volume was quite low in 2022 and 2023, which likely explains the drop.
THE SHE-SHED HOUSING MARKET INDEX:
Should we be concerned? “She Shed” wasn’t mentioned as much this last year. Granted, volume was down 40%, so we have to take 2023 with a grain of salt, but what does this mean? Haha.
ELEVATORS ARE ON THE RISE (THAT WAS A DAD JOKE):
A reporter called me recently to talk about elevators. What a random story idea, but his article ended up being interesting. Anyway, mentions of elevators have increased through the years in MLS. Granted, elevators are super rare, but we do see them show up in some high-end sales, and we’re also seeing some builders install them in various neighborhoods (Crocker Village, some in Midtown, etc..). I even spotted an owner who installed one in a tract neighborhood in Rancho Cordova (Anatolia). Where have you seen them?
TRADER JOE’S
And here’s a scatter graph to show Trader Joe’s mentions. Do you shop there? We do. My family shops at multiple stores because it seems impossible to get everything all at one place at a reasonable price. But backing up, if I was an agent, I’d love to be the first person to ever mention something. You know, start a trend. But maybe that’s why I shouldn’t be an agent. Haha. 🙂
LADY BIRD HAS ONLY BEEN MENTIONED THREE TIMES:
A few years ago, the movie Lady Bird came out, and it was set in Sacramento. Some people on social media at the time would say stuff like, “Bro, every Realtor is mentioning Lady Bird in their listings,” but that’s actually not true. I was only able to locate a total of three listings ever that used the phrase, Lady Bird. Technically, there are four, but one listing is located on a street in Elk Grove called Lady Bird, and it mentions the street name in the listing (which doesn’t count as a movie mention). Just wanted to clear that up. And on a related note, here’s something I wrote about fame and real estate.
Thanks for being here.
Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now in 2024? Anything stand out to you above? I’d love to hear your take.
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too early to tell in my woods. Seems that agents are talking about more listings, but the overall numbers are still low. Will see what February brings. For some reason in the last 4 months there has been an increase in horse ranch sales. Wish I understood that trend, weird. Right now, there are 11 larger horse properties in escrow, near closing or have closed. Guess they need to get the horses settled before the new show season starts, only thing I can come up with.
Hey Brad, do you think interest rates dropping might have something to do what you’re seeing?
Might but most of what I hear for these type of properties they are Cash buyers. I don’t understand what is happening and why the horse folks came out of the barn in the last two months. Hope to get some insight from some knowledgeable Agents about what is going on with the buyers right now. Will let you know what I hear. Thanks as always for your good work.
Hmm, interesting to hear about the horse properties. Let me know if you ever crack the code on that one. Thanks Brad.
Here’s hoping interest rates continue to decline and activity picks up.
I was feeling pretty out of touch when I saw the stat on “Honey, Stop the Car” because I never remember seeing that in a listing. I then did a search of the RMLS in Portland where I work. There are only 3 occurrences of the phrase “stop the car” out of 30,527 listings, sold or not, and just one with “honey” included in the phrase (113 SE 61ST AVE Portland). All three are different agents. Address of the one match included because I’m an appraiser and we need to show our work. LOL.
Haha. That’s great. I love hearing stuff like this. Maybe it’s the rain in Portland. If you stop the car, you’ll get wet. 🙂
“HONEY, STOP THE CAR” needs to DIE. I think you didn’t see it because Portland is too cool for that– they probably have their own phrases, like “Honey, you stop your skateboard and I’ll stop my bike!”
Haha. Yeah, I pushed that image out on my socials, and everyone had a good laugh. And pretty much everyone concurred too about needing to die. While we’re on the subject, Portland feels like a cool cousin to Sacramento. Breweries, tattoos, good food, some cool architecture. We have some similarities.
For reference, I also had to check on “pickleball”. We had 85 in the last two years in Portland. We did have 422 occurrences of the word “Walkable”.
Continued from above, then I’m done.
“Walk Score” 1,187
“Coffee” 2,157
“Chicken” 216
“Taco” 22
Too good. Thanks Gary. It makes me wonder why taco was used. I know years ago I did search that one also. I have to think mentioning a local taco joint or “adjacent to Taco Bell.”
Great info as always, but also thoroughly enjoyed the bonus of phrases used in MLS. Can’t remember the last time I saw “She Shed”, but the mention of “Pickleball was interesting. “Elevators on the rise”. Ryan Lundquist coming to a Comedy Store near you ?
Right on Michael. Haha. Thanks so much. I really appreciate you. Please keep me in the loop with anything you’re seeing out there too.
On a side note, my meme above is Nelly in 2002 who had a song with the lyric, “It’s getting hot in here.” Just in case anyone was wondering.
Interesting… I actually used the ‘Lady Bird House’ phrase in a blog post several weeks ago! But I also used the term ‘chicken @$$’ and ‘caviar bumps’ so take it for whatever it’s worth. https://grounded.city/blog/local-sacramento-insider/
Haha. That’s legendary, Sam. And you know, Lady Bird could be mentioned way more outside of MLS. In MLS? Not so much. Appreciate it. I’m such a fan of slinging words together in creative ways. Kudos to you.