Pretending it’s a seller’s market

Stop pretending. Those are strong words, but many sellers need to recognize the housing market has changed. Today, I have some advice, fresh price stats, and the skinny on what’s happening with listings. We are now done with the first half of the year, so let’s consider what the second half might look like. This post digests Sacramento trends, but many locations around the country have a similar vibe. 

Skim quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

7/16/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
7/31/25 Thomas Harris Event (TBA)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

THE BEST ADVICE FOR SELLERS RIGHT NOW

The best piece of advice I can give to sellers right now is to recognize a range of value exists. If I was going to sell a car, it’s not just worth $25,000 exactly. As if buyers would literally only pay that amount. Maybe a reasonable offer might be anywhere from $23,000 to $27,000. The same thing is true in real estate. We don’t want to look at a home and expect it is rigidly only worth $750,000. Maybe a reasonable range is more like $725,000 to $760,000. My advice? Don’t get stuck on the original price, get comfortable with a reasonable range existing, AND be open to potentially selling toward the lower end of the range. 

SUPPLY IS GROWING MORE THAN DEMAND

We’re seeing the pile of listings grow more than the pile of sales, so the market has grown softer. We’re still not back to a pre-2020 normal number of listings, but the number of sales has been lackluster, so we’re really feeling the extra supply. In Sacramento, there are 40% more active listings compared to one year ago. It’s actually stunning though that we are only at this level after three years since mortgage rates more than doubled. This goes to show the housing market still feels very broken at the moment. 

TWICE AS MANY LISTINGS AS THE BOTTOM

We are finally at a place where we are beating the number of listings from four previous years. This is a huge change from a year like 2023 when we had our worst year on record for the number of sellers listing their homes. Today, we literally have twice as many active listings in June 2025 compared to June 2023. In short, sellers are no longer frozen like they used to be. Yet, today’s numbers are still historically low. For reference, we had 8,900 more active listings in June 2008 (that’s 190% more than today’s levels). 

SELLERS ARE NOT RUSHING THE MARKET

This year we’ve had 14.7% more new listings compared to last year, and that’s positive news. We want to continue to see sellers wake up. I realize about fifteen percent growth isn’t that much, but the market is really feeling it since the number of closed sales has been slightly lower than one year ago. 

WHAT ARE PRICES DOING RIGHT NOW?

When asking people what they’re seeing with prices, I’m getting much more feedback that prices are going down. It’s still a mixed bag though where “flat” is also a strong word at the moment. These are two polls I did last week on Instagram and X (about 260 votes on my IG poll). Look, I don’t base my entire perception of the market on a poll. All I’m saying is people are starting to say things like, “Prices have dipped,” and the word on the street is something I listen to.

EARLY PRICE STATS (PRELIMINARY FOR JUNE)

It’s too early to publish a finalized median sales price, so please take June 2025 with a grain of salt. Overall, I just wanted to give some context to where we are at in general. Right now, we are down about 2% from one year ago (could change by next week). This shows a slight dip, and that seems about right when pulling comps in many neighborhoods. The region as a whole so far is up in June 2025 compared to one year ago, and we’ll see if that holds. Ultimately, expect that price stats in some areas are going to bounce around from month to month. Basically, prices have dipped, but they haven’t tanked like some think. Yet, I’m getting quite a few messages about properties that are just sitting. Do they need more time? Or has the market dropped more, but we aren’t seeing it in the stats yet? 

NOTE: Median change doesn’t translate rigidly to every price range and location. Look to the comps to understand the market.

Here’s another way to look at it. 

And here’s the region as a whole by the week for both the median sales price and average sales price. 

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR

Here are a few images to unpack what’s happening with buyers and sellers, and this might help us figure out what to expect ahead. Basically, we’ve likely peaked for the year for pendings and new listings, but the pile of actives should grow. 

ACTIVE LISTINGS:

In a normal year, we typically see the number of active listings peak in late summer. 

ACTIVE LISTINGS HAVE GROWN FASTER IN 2025

This year we are seeing active listings continue to grow (blue), and we should expect to see growth for a couple more months. It’s not that so many sellers are listing their homes, but we’ve seen fewer buyers participating, and that’s caused the pile of active listings to grow faster in recent months. I explained this with skateboard wheels recently. If rates continue to dip a bit, that could help the pile of active listings shrink some, but no matter what, we are no longer in a subdued market like 2023 where sellers were frozen like Han Solo in carbonite. 

PENDINGS

The peak of the number of pending contracts typically happens in May in the Sacramento region as shown with this visual. 

WE PEAKED IN 2025 & IT WAS MEDIOCRE

It looks like we peaked for the year in May for pendings, which isn’t a shocker, but these past few months have been really lackluster, so the peak just felt very mediocre more than anything. The thing we want to watch is what happens with rates and how that affects buyer behavior in the fall season. In 2024, we had a more vibrant fall for a couple of months when rates dipped, and it’s going to be interesting to see if we get a repeat. There is growing optimism ahead about lower rates, but we are still living with so much uncertainty, so we need time to see what happens. The thing to remember about today is we have 40% more active listings compared to last year. Moreover, buyers are also starting to hear about softening prices. So, it’s not the same exact dynamic as last year, and rates would likely have to go notably lower to offset an inflection point we’ve seen in recent months. 

NEW LISTINGS

It’s normal to see seller activity peak in May in the region, and it typically remains pretty strong through summer. 

STEADY GROWTH IN 2025 (15% MORE NEW LISTINGS):

Like clockwork, the number of new listings peaked in 2025 in May (blue), and we should expect a pretty normal seasonal trend ahead unless something changes seller behavior. All that said, growth has been tamer these past two months. I’m not ready to say sellers have backed off the market some. I’m just saying the growth in May and June was very modest compared to last year, and that’s something we want to watch (see blue vs red bars). 

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Questions: What are you seeing right now with prices? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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