All ships rise and fall with the tide. That’s one of my favorite things to say in real estate because the trends we see in one local county are often seen in other counties. Let’s talk about this concept as we look at the housing market so far in 2026. I have twelve counties of stats today too in case that’s your thing.
Skim by topic or digest slowly.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
WHAT ARE THE STATS SHOWING IN DIFFERENT AREAS?
SIMILAR VIBES IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS
No location is immune from the trend. That’s what we’re seeing right now in so many local counties. Softer prices compared to last year, it’s taking a little longer to sell, no huge growth in supply lately, and the spring market is heating up. This doesn’t mean the temperature can’t be hotter or colder in some areas though. All I’m saying is no local location is immune from the softer trend that showed up in the market last year. Yet, not all the parts are the same either. Condos are colder. Entry-level ranges are super-hot if priced right. 55+ in Placer County has been more vibrant than other counties. And there has been more strength at higher prices.
ARE YOU SAYING THE MARKET IS THE SAME EVERYWHERE?
Nope. The housing market is NOT the same in every location. I’m saying all ships tend to rise and fall in a region – not the entire country. Here’s a great way to illustrate what I mean with a ResiClub visual. Some parts of the country are up, and others are down.
“MY AREA DIDN’T DECLINE LAST TIME”
Sometimes people say things like, “My neighborhood didn’t decline during the Great Financial Crisis.” I get the sentiment, but every local neighborhood saw price declines back then. It’s just some higher price points were able to weather the storm a bit better as there wasn’t extreme carnage like entry-level price points had. In short, no neighborhood escaped the trend back then, and the same is true today with every area feeling more softness over the past year (and now heating up for the spring). Know what I’m saying?
SPRING VIBES IN THE STATS
We’re starting to see spring show up in the stats. Here are two examples. Do you see days on market starting to tick down for the season? And check out the median sales price rising in February. These were both expected. Price change ahead is still to be determined, but a February uptick was a safe bet.
SALES VOLUME WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER IN FEBRUARY
Closed sales volume for 2026 is down so far, but February was higher than 2025 (barely). The hope is to see stronger volume ahead since we’ve seen slightly stronger pendings lately that will presumably close in coming months. The theme for 2026 is “stuck, but a little less stuck.” What I mean is the market isn’t poised to see an explosion of volume this year, but the hope is to see a little bit more than last year. For my real estate friends, put your game face on, keep your head down, and don’t get swept up in ultra-positive hype about the market from somebody who might be trying to sell you something.
IS NEW CONSTRUCTION STARTING TO RECOVER?
The new homes market is slightly ahead of last year, which is a little different than the resale market lagging behind overall. Have builders started to attract buyers again? The past two months seem to suggest that as volume has been more vibrant after some lackluster months in 2025. It looks like fat concessions and slightly lower prices have started to work, but I need more than two stronger months to call it a trend.
LET’S INVENT NEW VISUALS FOR 2026 (WE NEED THEM)
Price stats can bounce around so much these days, especially in smaller counties. This is why I made the following visuals to help interpret the market. The median isn’t a perfect price metric (there is no perfect metric), but this visual gets the job done to help show my point that stats can bounce all over the place from month to month. This is why it’s key to look at the entire region as well as Sacramento County to see the bigger picture. Take smaller areas with a grain of salt from month to month.
NOTE: I don’t have these for every county yet. Would you like more?
STATS IN TWELVE COUNTIES (BE CAREFUL OF SMALL AREAS)
Here are year-over-year stats in twelve counties. I changed my format recently. Let me know what works and doesn’t work. I might have month-to-month stats back by next month, but part of me wonders if anyone really uses them (let me know).
Overall, this year looks pretty similar statistically to last year, though price stats are down slightly, and it’s taking a little longer to sell. There isn’t any big change with supply though, and volume is similar in many areas. Keep in mind, closed sales in February mostly represent what happened in pending contracts in January. Like I said last week, the housing market has tightened a bit, so it’s going to be interesting to see what the stats show ahead. Of course, now we have more uncertainty to consider. How long will the war with Iran last? How will consumers respond with higher gas prices (or energy prices maybe)? And what other unexpected things might happen? We need time to understand.
Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.
Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing in the market right now? Anything to add?
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Thanks Ryan. I use the monthly change year-over-year to figure out Davis because it’s so seasonal. I put it into a bar chart to show the trend instead of leaving it in a table. The problem is in November through January because of the low sales volume. But if 6 of the past 8 months are down year-over-year, it’s a great indicator.
Bill McBride published a note today about how we’ve been in a housing recession nationally over the past several years because of the large drop in sales volume, affecting everyone who depends on real estate sales for work (agents, appraisers, title, etc.). It’s exactly what we’ve seen, and what you’ve published for the region.
See you next week at the Yolo Association meeting.
Thanks, Joe. You are the go-to guy for Davis stats for sure. I’m going to eventually switch everything in a table to a bar chart. The table can only get so tall anyway, so at some point the format needs to change. I think I still have a few months left for this format though. I saw Bill’s note, but I couldn’t read it because I’m not a paid subscriber. I read his first paragraph in the free email. 🙂
That’ll be great to catch up next week.
Good stuff Ryan. My perspective is as the region continues to struggle with affordability and safety concerns the neighborhoods that avoid the overall price drops are becoming even more sought after. For example Land Park is in my opinion one of the hottest markets in our region right now. East Sac and Land Park have always been close in people willing to pay a premium price but lately for whatever reason. (East sac congestion? Uptick in Homeless activity) It appears that Land Park is hotter than ever. Just gut feel & experience talking. I haven’t run the numbers. Be interesting to see you break down any correlations/comparisons between say the core neighborhoods vs some suburban areas. Thanks as always. Chad.
Thanks, Chad. I really value your take, and I’ll keep all of this on the radar. I’ve noticed Land Park has had strong volume. Just looked it up again, and there were 96 sales in 2024 and 115 in 2025. This is down substantially from normal, but it’s good to see some growth. 2025 beat both 2023 and 2024. I think for a while I was seeing some weakness in volume numbers near Downtown, but Land Park isn’t showing that. Tahoe Park also outpaced volume from 2024, but East Sac did not (neither did Curtis Park). Some of these areas are small in terms of the number of sales, so we have to take some of the stats with a grain of salt. Just wanted to share some stats I’m seeing on my end.
Great post. Often when I have an appraisal in an area where there is too little data to get trends, I expand to some other similar areas to generate my opinion of what I think is going on in the smaller market. My excuse is, “This is the best I can do.” and, “Ships rise and fall with the tide.”
Bingo. I like your strategy here, Gary. I find appraiser forums online don’t often talk about stuff like this. We often hear things like, “The submarket trend may not be the same as the larger area,” and I agree with that. But what then do we do to understand the market and tell the story of value? Ironically, I find there is such a connection to surrounding areas in many cases. I think when I started in this profession, my view was maybe too limited where I would look for comps and trends in a very tight area. I think the market tends to be a little bigger though…
Are buyer agent “concessions” included? If so, it may skew the data.
Hi Esther. That’s a great question. The buyer’s agent compensation should not be included as a concession on MLS. That’s against MLS rules. I appreciate that MLS allows agents to list specific concessions now, and compensation is not one of them, so it’s not appropriate to include in that field. I have to think some agents still mark “yes” for concessions though even though MLS doesn’t want that. It is what it is. The concessions field is something I’ve tracked for years, and while it’s not a perfect field, there hasn’t been a massive difference since the NAR lawsuit went into effect in August 2024. The percentage of sales with concessions is only up slightly (makes sense in light of a softer market). In short, there is a margin of error here like any stat field, but I don’t think compensation for the buyer’s side has skewed the numbers over the past 1.5 years. I may change my opinion at some point, but so far I think we’re okay. All that said, I do think this is a conservative number still since some agents leave the field blank and others put “CLA.” I don’t personally include “CLA” as a yes for concessions, though that might be a safe assumption.