Market Trends

Sales don’t always become comps

September 16, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Imagine a new sale in the neighborhood. This property sells above all others, and now it’s a comp, right? Well, not necessarily. I had a neighbor ask me about this after a sale was reported to have closed surprisingly high, and I had a related conversation with someone alleging investor fraud from inflated comps. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

ONE SALE DOESN’T CHANGE EVERYTHING

I get the concept that one new higher sale can pull up the rest of the market, but just because it closed doesn’t mean it’s a good reflection of value. In other words, a lofty sale doesn’t automatically change buyer behavior, pull up the rest of the market, or reflect actual value.

WHAT IF I SOLD MY HOUSE FOR ONE DOLLAR?

Imagine if I sold my house for $1. Does that mean the rest of the market will bend toward my sale? Nope. The same holds true if I sold my house for 25% over market value. This “lone ranger” sale doesn’t become the new comp for the rest of the neighborhood. The big truth here is just because someone overpaid or underpaid doesn’t mean it reflects the market.

BRO, BIG INVESTORS ARE CREATING HIGHER COMPS

On a related note, I talked with someone recently about investment fund activity. The alleged scenario was that a big investor purchased an entire neighborhood at a discount, and then sold three homes at an inflated level to an LLC that was owned by the same investor. The idea is these new higher “comps” will now be used as the value basis for other properties. Look, I get the idea, but there are some issues here:

1) Buyers aren’t stupid: Buyers don’t automatically consider higher sales as comps (see Zillow example below). In other words, buyers are discerning, and they aren’t going to arbitrarily accept a high sale as a new level of market value if that’s not what the data suggests. By the way, I’m not saying fraud cannot exist or that buyers don’t sometimes pay bonehead prices.

2) Private comps are rarely ever used: Appraisers rarely use private sales as comps, and they shouldn’t be turning a blind eye to why one “comp” sold so much higher. In fact, appraisers almost always steer clear of using private residential sales at all unless they can verify the details of the transaction. For instance, I wouldn’t blindly use a private sale that closed at $800,000 when all other public comps on MLS closed around $700,000. What if the one $800,000 sale included a car in the garage and fat concessions that boosted the price? One more thing. Appraisers and agents might not literally even know about private sales off MLS unless doing a deeper search of sales through tax records instead of MLS.

3) Is this fake news, or did it happen? Did this scenario actually happen in a real place, or is it just an anecdote for social media to get clicks? If it’s real, let’s look at the neighborhood and explore whether other buyers ended up paying more for homes by relying on the higher “comps.” Look, I’m not an investor fanboy here at all, and fraud should be exposed, but I find there are often unsubstantiated claims like this that ignore how comps work in a marketplace. I’m not saying investors get a pass at all, but I think they’re an easy target to blame our disappointment about a lack of affordability. In short, if this is real, speak up in the comments about locations and proof of fraud. Thanks.

4) Zillow did not create higher comps: This reminds me about supposed fraud when Zillow was an iBuyer. There was a viral accusation on TikTok in 2021 that Zillow overpaid to create new higher comps. However, Zillow was buying so many homes off-market, so appraisers and everyone else wouldn’t even be using those private sales as comps. Yet, when Zillow did overpay on MLS, those higher “comps” weren’t pulling up the rest of the market. The truth is buyers don’t care what a seller paid, which is why buyers were regularly getting into contract below Zillow’s acquisition price. So, actual market activity refuted this viral claim. Again, I’m not speaking from the perspective of a big investor or Zillow fanboy, so save your hate mail. Let’s critique examples like this and figure out where to direct our disappointment.

THE BIG TAKEAWAY: WE NEED TO WEIGH THE COMPS

Here’s the big takeaway. Is the new sale a comp? Does the property reflect what actual buyers are willing to pay? Was the price too high, too low, or just about right? In real estate, we have to weigh the comps by asking questions like this. We don’t just arbitrarily accept a closed sale as gospel. I find many sellers believe this to be true when a sale closes really high, but then they don’t believe it when something closes too low. So, maybe this is more about wishful thinking. Ultimately, if it looks like it closed too high or low, then we might not use the sale at all, or maybe we won’t give it much weight in our final opinion of value (rightly so).

If a sale looks out of sync with value, it’s time to ask some questions. Was it a desperate buyer needing to quickly complete a 1031 Exchange? Could it have been an out-of-town buyer who didn’t know the market? What if someone was purchasing next to an aging parent and paid more to secure the deal? Was it a seller in distress that explains a lower price? Did the agent price it too low?

One of the realities of comp selection is we need to ask questions like this, and the answers can help us figure out if we need to give a “comp” more or less weight in our valuation. It’s almost like we are appraising the comps too rather than looking at nothing but the closed price with tunnel vision. What is the story behind the price? That’s the more interesting and relevant question when pulling comps and trying to figure out value.

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: How do you weigh comps and understand if something sold for too much or too little? What stands out to you above?

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Sellers are struggling to listen to the market

September 10, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 22 Comments

Some sellers today are being stubborn, and it’s really backfiring. Not only are sellers tending to overprice, but they’re also not in sync with buyers getting more concessions. Buyers are routinely getting credits for closing costs, repairs, and rate buydowns. In short, it’s time for sellers to listen and pony up to get deals done. In today’s post, I have some fresh perspective about concessions, and I have a huge market update too.

Scroll quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

1) WELCOME BACK CONCESSIONS AMOUNT FIELD

When the NAR lawsuit happened, the MLS field for the commission amount to the buyer side was removed, but there was also a separate concessions field that was taken away. It was collateral damage from the lawsuit even though the concessions field had nothing to do with compensation. Well, this concessions amount field is thankfully back as of a few weeks ago (thank you Metrolist). Agent friends, PLEASE fill this out because it makes pulling comps helpful for everyone. Knowing what the seller gave the buyer is so important when choosing comps. This field has nothing to do with compensation either. It’s all about stuff like closing costs, credit for repairs, buying down the rate, etc… Here’s what the new field looks like:

2) SELLERS PLAYING HARDBALL OVER $9,000

Some sellers are really stubborn right now, and they’re not negotiating with buyers. These sellers are stuck in 2021 thinking they hold all the cards, and they’re not realizing that buyers have more power today. Over the past month, the average concession amount listed in MLS has been $9,168 (or 1.6%). There are obviously much larger concessions in some instances, but on average it’s been pretty minor. In short, some sellers are playing hardball and causing buyers to walk over a minor amount. It’s important to note that we’re in a market where many properties only get one offer (and so many listings have zero offers).

Kudos to the sellers above for listening to the market and getting it done. In today’s world, buyers might want a lower price and concessions. Meanwhile, some sellers are dreaming of a higher price only. Don’t be this seller below.

3) MORE CONCESSIONS AT LOWER PRICES

Counties with lower prices have tended to have more concessions (not a shocker). These numbers are based on MLS data, and if anything, I think these stats are conservative since not every agent checked “yes” or “no” in MLS for whether concessions were present or not. By the way, I don’t include “Call Listing Agent” as a “yes” in my stats (it probably is a yes though).

One more thing. Concessions don’t happen in every transaction (key point).

4) EXPECT MORE CONCESSIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2025

The percentage of sales with concessions is currently higher than we’ve seen in recent years in our largest county – Sacramento. This isn’t a shocker since the market is softer today. The interesting part about this graph is it shows concessions increase during the second half of the year as a normal seasonal trend, so I would expect for sellers to have to give more to buyers for the rest of 2025 unless something unexpected happens with the market. Sellers, did you hear this? Historically, sellers give more to buyers during the second half of the year (see white space and ignore 2020).

NOTE: Some might interpret this stat as agents inputting compensation as a concession, but I don’t think that explains it. It seems like the seller is paying for the buyer’s agent commission most of the time (based on conversations I’m having), so if agents were inputting the commission as a concession, this number should be so much higher than it has been since the NAR lawsuit.

5) APPRAISERS HELPED BRING THIS CHANGE TO MLS

Props to a group of appraisers from REAA Sacramento for opening up conversation with MLS about the missing concessions amount field and pitching the idea for how this field could work in a post-NAR lawsuit world. MLS liked the idea with the drop-down menu and adopted it. I was part of the initial conversation to help make this happen, but Joe Lynch and Amy Parker did the heavy lifting here by joining the MLS board (thanks guys).

—————— big market update for anyone interested ——————

BIG MARKET UPDATE

If your self-esteem is based on sales volume, you’re in a world of hurt. Closed sales volume was lackluster in the entire region in August. While we’ve seen an increase in the number of purchase applications nationally, it just has not yet translated to an increase in pendings or closed sales. The reality is the pile of buyers today has continued to flirt with historic lows. Traditional price metrics have been hovering around last year, give or take 1% or so. In short, prices have been pretty flat with some brewing downward pressure. When pulling comps, I’m noticing the same thing with flat prices or down a little from one year ago. Yet, condos can be down much more.

ACTIVES AREN’T GROWING ANY LONGER

In the background, we’ve seen the pile of active listings decrease lately in light of sellers backing off the market a few months ago. I’ve been talking about how increased uncertainty has led to buyers backing off the market since April, but this has been a vibe for sellers also. And this means the gap between sales and listings is closer today, which can affect market temperature. I don’t think the housing doom narrative has caught up to this trend yet because it’s all about explosive growth for listings. Okay, I get it, but that growth has tapered in recent months due to seller uncertainty (and now seasonality).

MOST PROPERTIES ARE GOING BELOW

The bulk of sales are selling below the original list price, and this is great news for buyers!!! This speaks to sellers overpricing and prices softening too.

SOME NEW COOL STATS (SPREADSHEET COMING SOON)

Here are some new stats I’ve been tinkering with lately. I built a spreadsheet that can instantly create these visuals. I’ll introduce the spreadsheet hopefully next month, and I’d like to do some training ahead on how to use it. I’ve put out free spreadsheets before, but this one is the best one I’ve done since it’s basically automated. My goal is to help people understand the market. It’s actually really amazing when using the spreadsheet in neighborhoods and zip codes. You can really see what the market is doing and how different it is by location and price point. Imagine having someone ask you a question about the market and being able to instantly push out stats like this. Anyway, stay tuned for more information. I am going to be selling the spreadsheet and my time for training. The fee will be modest, and the result can be career-changing. Oh, I’ll have more visuals too. I’m not done with the spreadsheet yet.

YEAR OVER YEAR STATS

Take some smaller counties with a grain of salt since the numbers can bounce around from month to month depending on what has sold (El Dorado especially).

JULY TO AUGUST STATS

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you about the stats today? Anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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Who is selling in today’s housing market?

September 4, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Who is selling right now? Some say it’s mostly people who bought over the past few years. Others say it’s just Boomers with dated homes. Well, what do the stats show? Let’s take a look at the numbers. I’m focusing on my local market, but I hope you find this interesting no matter where you are.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

DIGGING DEEPER INTO SELLERS

I hope today’s research provides some clues into who is selling. When looking at current listings, how long ago did sellers buy? For instance, 5.0% of current listings previously sold in 2021 on MLS.

Are current listings mostly from people who bought over the past few years?

No, but this is a solid chunk of the market. 18.4% of listings (this also includes pendings) represent homes that were previously purchased between 2020 and 2024 in the region. Don’t get me wrong. This is a very decent portion, but it’s not the majority as some suggest when saying, “Bro, all the sellers today bought when rates were low, and now they need to unload.”

Are owners with low rates holding on to their homes?

Yes. We’re not seeing a flood of these owners, but this portion is definitely growing. Today, there are conservatively somewhere around five hundred listings with a low rate (assuming those who purchased in portions of 2020 and 2021 have a rate around 3%). My sense is people are going to do all they can to hang on to their lower monthly payment, but as time goes on, we should see more owners sell simply because lifestyle and finances will mandate change. Case-in-point. I have a friend who moved to Placer County a few years ago, but now the plan is to move back to Sacramento despite having a sub-3% rate. In other words, it’s not always about the numbers and math. Sometimes lifestyle changes happen, and that’s the trump card. By the way, as these homes come to the market more, we’ll have more conversation about assumable mortgages (only FHA and VA are assumable).

Do sellers have massive equity?

Yes. The vast bulk of listings have ample equity, especially since over half of homes haven’t sold on MLS since 2012. But there are some short sales listings, and these properties represent 0.8% of the market. This is a tiny portion, but if prices persist to decline, we should expect to see this number rise.

Are current listings mostly properties purchased long ago?

Yes, it looks that way. 54.2% of current listings have not sold on MLS since 2012, so the majority of these homes haven’t seen a for sale sign in the yard in quite some time. This lines up with something I’ve been noticing in recent years where many homes are dated and often the byproduct of heirs putting an inherited home on the market instead of keeping it. These homes were often previously owned by the Silent Generation and Boomers. I’m not saying the bulk of listings fall into this category, but there does seem to be a bigger chunk. This could contribute to some listings feeling stale too as many of these homes have not been updated (something that buyers want today). I suppose I could try to pull all sales from 1998 onward in MLS, but this is a tedious process, so I’m only showing 2012 onward today despite the more limited view (this took hours to pull, by the way).

Takeaways for real estate friends:

Who are the sellers? Who has incentive to sell in today’s market? Think about who you are talking to in your marketing. Who are you targeting? Does that line up with what we’re seeing statistically?

DATA METHODOLOGY:

These stats are based on single family detached listings and pendings in Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, and El Dorado counties as of 9/04/2025 (no condos). I compared all of these properties with the addresses of sales from previous years. I used the “Street Address” field in MLS to sort through properties. At first, I used the “Full Address,” but after all my research I realized not every listing had the full ZIP Code listed in MLS, so results weren’t good enough. So, I exported all data again (over 330,000 sales) with just the street address (no ZIP), and it made a difference. I used Excel to identify duplicates, which showed when a current listing was sold on MLS previously. One limiting factor here is there are some current listings that were purchased privately (not on MLS), and focusing on MLS sales only doesn’t capture those properties. This is true of new construction especially that may not have listed on MLS in previous years. So, if anything, consider these numbers reliable, but conservative too.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you about the stats today? Anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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The housing market isn’t all dull

August 27, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

The housing market has been softening for sure, but with all the talk about dullness, it’s easy to lose sight of the part of the market that IS moving very quickly right now. Today, I’m going to highlight the trend in Sacramento, and many areas around the country are experiencing the same thing.

A wooden sign in the front yard of a house with white font that says "the housing market isn't all dull."

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville

IT’S A MIXED BAG

I find either properties are getting quick attention with multiple offers, or they’re just sitting. In other words, the market is a mixed bag. I find this to be true in Sacramento, but it’s also true in many parts of the country as I talk with real estate pros. And remember, the housing temperature isn’t the same in all portions of the country either. For instance, the Northeast is so much more competitive than Florida, Texas, and even California now.

MAKING IT HAPPEN IN TWO WEEKS

Some properties are moving fast today. 18.1% of pendings over the past two weeks in the Sacramento region got into contract within seven days, and 31.5% got into contract within fourteen days. That might sound surprising to some who have only been hearing about price declines and softness.

THERE IS HOPE FOR THE LINGERING

There are some listings that are truly lingering, but there is still hope. 10.2% of all pendings over the past two weeks were on the market for 120 days or longer in the region. Four properties were listed for more than a year too. In short, if you’ve been listed for an eternity, there is hope of getting into contract ahead (but not without dropping the price).

BUT FIFTY DAYS IS THE AVERAGE

We’re no longer in a lightning-speed market even though some properties can still go quickly. On average, it took fifty days to get into contract in the Sacramento region over the past two weeks. This is FOURTEEN DAYS LONGER than 2019, and it’s been a huge adjustment for some who are expecting speed like 2021 (16 days). Keep in mind, it took 95 days in 2007 at this time.

Here’s the message for today. It’s going to take longer to sell. And some properties can still sell very quickly. Both things are true.

NOT HAVING TO REDUCE (THE GOAL FOR SELLERS)

Sellers lately have rarely reduced the price within the first two weeks before getting into contract. In fact, only 2.5% of pendings dropped the price during this time before a pending status was achieved. This tells us, sellers are getting into contract quickly when they price it right from the beginning rather than having to discover value through price drops. However, it’s very possible that many of these pendings will still close below the original price because that’s the vibe today. It’s just they were able to get into contract without a reduction, which is half the battle right now.

THE POWER OF CONDITION & LOWER PRICES

When a property is in good condition and upgraded, it’s a hot commodity. It’s these types of properties that can move quickly when priced right. About 60% of pendings over the past two weeks were under $600K though, so there is something to be said about lower prices being able to move fast. But 17.1% of pendings were between $700K to $1M and 10.3% were above $1M, and that shows us you can get it done swiftly at any price. Ultimately, the property needs to be priced correctly AND have something else buyers want in terms of condition, upgrades, or location (or some other special x-factor).

THE AVERAGE REDUCTION WAS 5.8%

The average reduction was 5.8% or $42,183 when looking at all pendings over the past two weeks. If you’re overpriced, how much do you need to reduce? It depends how overpriced you are. Recent pendings reduced anywhere from $500 to $366,000 before a pending status. My advice? Look to the comps.

SOME VISUALS INSPIRED BY TAYLOR & TRAVIS

Sorry. And kidding aside, this new visual might take a minute to figure out what the heck is going on. The idea is to help show days on market compared to the percentage properties were reduced before going pending (there are some price increases too). What strikes me is there are VERY few with price drops in the first two weeks (and that’s 31.5% of all pendings in the first two weeks). Also, I love to see sellers responding with reductions right away. I’ll admit I’m not big on reducing by $1 to get a fresh status on MLS. I like when sellers recognize the need to reduce by a few percent (or more if needed).

And the dollar amount instead. Overall, most reductions were under $50K (average was $42,183).

Okay, that’s it for now. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Why are some properties going quickly and others sitting? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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