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Appraised Value

The danger of overpricing & chasing real estate unicorns

January 30, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

Overpricing. It happens all the time in real estate – especially in today’s market. I get where sellers are coming from because we’ve had so much glowing real estate news for more than five years. But that doesn’t mean we’re in a market where you can command whatever price you want. 

Chasing the unicorn: Many sellers are pricing their properties too high. It’s as if they expect record-breaking prices and multiple offers every time because of how “hot” the market is. Homeowners get so fixated on the idea of a fiery market that they price for that one unicorn buyer who’s going to mysteriously pay more than anyone else. This “unicorn” will ignore all recent sales and listings and magically offer 10% higher than anything. In Sacramento the idea is a Bay Area “unicorn” will swoop in with fat stacks of cash and totally ignore similar comps that are selling for less. It’s nice when sellers get lucky like that, but in today’s market buyers are actually much more finicky about price. Despite a legitimate housing shortage we don’t have a market where buyers are willing to pay crazy prices that are totally disconnected from reality. In other words, we don’t have a market where pricing for the “unicorn” makes good sense (unless you want to sit on the market instead of sell). Take a look at the image below that shows price reductions over the past 24 hours in the Sacramento region. These 78 properties have been priced too high for the market.

My advice? Price for the real market instead of the unicorn. Give the most weight to similar sales and similar listings that are actually getting into contract.

Aspirational pricing: If you aren’t familiar with the term aspirational pricing, Jonathan Miller coined this phrase. It’s a great way to describe the phenomenon of sellers fixating on prices that are simply disconnected from the real market.

10 reasons why sellers overprice:

1) Hot headlines are imposed on the price instead of looking at comps. 

2) Dissimilar sales are used as “comps” to price the home.

3) Too much emphasis is put on price per sq ft instead of actual comps.

4) A property is priced like it doesn’t have a busy street or adverse location.

5) Sales from a higher-priced area are “cherry-picked” to price the property.

6) The seller is too subjective and feels “my house is better.”

7) The owner believes the cost of any upgrades should be paid for by buyers.

8) A more aggressive trend from a lower price range is assumed to be present at a higher price range.

9) It’s a tricky property and not easy to come up with a price.

10) What else?

My article in Comstock’s: By the way, I wrote an article in Comstock’s Magazine this month on the value of upgrades. Check it out if you want.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Are you seeing sellers price for “unicorns”? What reasons do you think sellers overprice? Did I miss something?

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Market Trends Tagged With: Appraised Value, aspirational pricing, Greater Sacramento appraisal blog, hot real estate headlines, house appraisals, housing shortage, Jonathan Miller, mythical buyer, overpricing, price reductions, realistic appraisal, reasons why sellers overprice, sacramento home appraisals, unicorn buyer

The problem with non-permitted additions in real estate

October 25, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 11 Comments

Non-permitted additions can cause huge problems. Last week I wrote about how I valued a garage conversion without permits, and I wanted to follow up with some expanded thoughts. As I mentioned, in this situation I gave value to a conversion because I was able to show the market was willing to pay for it. Yet it’s not always that easy, so let’s dig deeper. By the way, props to Cynthia, Gary, and Bryan for stellar blog comments that prodded me to follow-up. Any thoughts?

54025005 - demolishing the old kitchen - exposing the studs, existing plumbing and electrical work

Issues when dealing with a lack of permits:

1) Lenders & Appraisers: Here’s the bottom line. Some lenders don’t want to lend on properties with non-permitted additions. In short, a non-permitted area might have legitimate value in the market, but some lenders will tell appraisers NOT to give the space any value. At the same time other lenders are okay with value being given, but they want appraisers to show a few comps with similar non-permitted areas to prove the market is willing to pay for the space (that’s tricky to find).

2) Illegal: Does the addition conform with what zoning allows? This is a key question. For instance, if zoning only allows one unit and the seller has a non-permitted second unit that hands-down would never be allowed, it’s an enormous liability for an appraiser to be giving value to something like that. Likewise, imagine if an addition was built within the setbacks on a site, which would make it illegal and maybe even a safety issue.

3) Building Department Reaction: Is it likely the non-permitted area can become permitted? What is it going to cost? This is where it’s worth giving the building department a call. I don’t recommend mentioning a specific address at first so you don’t raise red flags, but call and maybe ask about a hypothetical situation to see what the cost and feasibility might be for getting permits. Remember, not all markets are the same either. For instance, since 1976 the City of Davis has had a program where building inspectors visit all properties before they close escrow to ensure there are no code violations. In short, you can’t get away with non-permitted additions in Davis if you plan to sell (but you can elsewhere).

4) The Struggle of Different Opinions: A friend gave me a call to talk through a situation with a garage that was converted into a second unit without permits. The appraiser gave little weight to the addition because of zoning issues, but the seller thought it should have carried more weight. There was a solid back-up offer on the table, but regardless of whether this addition was worth more or not, the thing I told my friend was there was no guarantee a future appraiser or lender was going to see the situation any differently. Owners in scenarios like this tend to say, “The lack of permits wasn’t a problem when we first bought the house”, but guidelines and what appraisers report might have changed over time. Moreover, not every appraiser or lender is going to see things the same way.

Advice about non-permitted areas:

1) Minimal value: Expect there is generally going to be less value for something not permitted than something fully permitted (thanks Captain Obvious).

2) Bigger is Bigger: Buyers seem to ignore smaller-ticket items that weren’t permitted, but the bigger something is, the more likely it is going to be a bigger deal that it wasn’t permitted. For example, there is a huge difference between a non-permitted covered patio and a 400 sq ft addition that was not permitted.

3) Glorified Storage: Keep in mind an appraiser might be instructed by a lender to count a non-permitted area as storage instead of living space. So that second story attic conversion might be really sweet, but an appraiser might end up treating it like storage instead of extra square footage.

4) The Easy Answer: Getting permits can help avoid future loan problems. Be sure to keep a copy of the permit too so any appraiser or buyer can see everything has been signed off.

NOTE ON GIVING VALUE TO SOLAR: This is off-topic, but there was a recent class on solar and it was apparently mentioned I do not give value to solar systems. That’s not accurate. However, I have said a LEASED solar system does not get value because it’s personal property. Just wanted to clarify. You can read this post and another for some thoughts on solar.

sacramento-appraisal-blog

Questions: How have you seen a lack of permits impact a transaction or appraisal? Would you buy a home if it had an addition that was not permitted? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Resources Tagged With: appraisals, Appraised Value, appraisers, how appraisers deal with a lack of permits, illegal addition, lack of permits, lender tells appraiser what to do, lenders instructing appraisers, living area, no permits, non-permitted addition, Sacramento appraisals, storage

Eating tacos and 10 housing market truths

September 26, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

I eat tacos with investors. That’s right. A few times a year a group of real estate friends get together to talk shop at the best taco joint in town. It’s informal and fun because we’re friends, but it’s also valuable to get a sense for what everyone is seeing out there in the trenches. Anyway, despite not having tacos in front of me at the moment, I wanted to share some of the things that have seemed to come up lately in housing market conversations. Anything to add?

33102060 - top 10 - businessman with chalkboard

10 truths about the housing market

1) One high or low sale doesn’t make or break a market.

2) Just because inventory is low doesn’t mean buyers will pay any price.

3) The market isn’t doing the same thing in every neighborhood or price range.

4) There is no such thing as a national housing market. The “national” market is actually made up of thousands of local markets (Jonathan Miller).

5) Appraisers only measure the market. They don’t make values go up or down.

6) There is no recipe or formula for the way a housing “bubble” has to pop. In other words, for all the conversation about a current “bubble”, if the market did “pop” it wouldn’t necessarily have to look the same way it did 10 years ago.

7) Real estate advice has a shelf life, which means it might not be good for every market (or every price range or location).

8) Markets aren’t so perfect that we can say a property is only worth one certain amount like $336,456. It’s best to recognize there is a reasonable range for what the market might be willing to pay (say $330,000 to $340,000). Is there any support for the appraised value to come in at or near the list price or contract price? Does this price fall within the range of what is reasonable?

9) “Negative market trends are not the end of the world. They represent opportunities for some” (from Jonathan Miller).

10) Thinking positively or talking positively about the market doesn’t drive the market. In other words, “you can’t overpower the market with the power of positive thinking. The market doesn’t care what you or your client thinks” Jonathan Miller.

You may notice I referenced New York Appraiser Jonathan Miller a few times above. I realize that makes me look like a fanboy, but that’s okay because he’s an influential voice in my life and I appreciate his weekly notes every Friday. Last week Jonathan knocked it out of the park in his section entitled “McMansions, McEgos, McPrices and McHonor” (that’s where I picked up point #9 and #10).

how-to-think-like-an-appraiser-class-by-ryan-lundquist-150x150Class I’m teaching on Thursday: On September 29 from 9am-12pm I’m doing my favorite class at SAR called HOW TO THINK LIKE AN APPRAISER. We’re going to have a blast talking through seeing properties like an appraiser does. We’ll look at comp selection and talk through so many issues. My goal is to help you walk away full of actionable ideas. Register here.

Questions: What types of conversations are coming up in your circles right now? What is #11? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Resources Tagged With: appraisal in Sacramento, Appraised Value, bifurcated market, housing market trends, Jonathan Miller, negative market trends, positive thinking in real estate, range of value, real estate advice, real estate bubble, Sacramento appraisals

Why a property’s previous sale can really matter for an appraisal

June 20, 2016 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

Paying close attention to a property’s previous sale can be a big deal. I know it’s tempting to say value is all about the current market, but sometimes looking at the past can help us understand the present. Here are some reasons why I pay attention to previous sales. Any thoughts?

previous sales matter to appraisers - sacramento appraisal blog

5 things to consider about a property’s previous sale:

  1. Requirement to Explain: If you didn’t know, appraisers are required by USPAP (our uniform standards) to analyze and report the past 36 months of sales or transfers of the subject property. Thus analyzing a prior sale can be a normal and even mandatory part of the appraisal process.
  2. Context: A previous sale can sometimes give tremendous insight into how the market responded to the subject property. This is especially true if a property is unique or funky. What did the subject property compare to at the time of its previous sale? How did it fit within the market? Digging deeply into neighborhood sales can help us answer these questions and maybe even influence the comps we choose for today’s value.
  3. Clues into Adjustments: A prior sale can give clues into how much we might need to adjust for certain aspects of the property. For instance, if the subject is located on a busy street, a previous sale might help us see if that was a big deal or not compared to other neighborhood sales. Or maybe the subject property has a very large lot for the neighborhood, and prior sales can help us gauge how much of a premium there was if any. Or imagine a house is twice as large as anything else in the neighborhood. Let’s find some current comps of course, but let’s also look to the past too. Can we maybe glean some value context by seeing what buyers were actually willing to pay for this beastly home in the past? Maybe so.
  4. Comp #4: Appraisers can use the subject property as a comparable sale in reports. Not that appraisers need permission, but according to Fannie Mae, “The subject property can be used as a fourth comparable sale or as supporting data if it was previously closed” (B4-1.3-08). I’ve done this on occasion when a property is unique and data is limited. After all, what is more comparable than the subject property itself?
  5. Past vs. Present: If there was a previous sale in the past, we can probably milk it for some perspective, but let’s remember we ultimately have to let the current market speak to us instead of imposing the past on the present. After all, the market might be different today due to a change in zoning, change in buyer demand, gentrification, etc… It’s worth noting too sometimes sales in the past simply sold for way too much or way too little.

Example: Here is a graph I made for an appraisal I did recently that was going to court. The subject sold three times in the past at a mid-range of the competitive market. Does the history of sales help build credibility for why I reconciled the value to the middle range? I think so.

context for value with graphing - by sacramento appraisal blog

Tip for Agents & Owners: If something has changed about the property since the previous sale, be very intentional about talking with the appraiser about the change (please use my Info Sheet for Appraisers). Also, I recommend opening up discussion about the nature of the prior sale so the appraiser can have more information and maybe make a judgment call about the sale (especially if the property sold too high or too low for some reason).

I hope that was helpful.

Questions: How do you use previous sales when you value properties? What is #6? Did I leave something out? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Appraisal Stuff, Resources Tagged With: appraisals in Sacramento, Appraised Value, appraisers in Sacramento, Fannie Mae, Home Appraisal, House Appraisal, previous sale of subject property, seeing the context of value, supporting the value, use subject property as comp, USPAP

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