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Appraised Value

How much are buyers paying above the asking price?

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“Buyers are crazy!!! How can they be paying these prices?” That’s what we tend to hear from people who are NOT trying to buy a house right now. It seems like onlookers really don’t understand what it takes to get an offer accepted these days. But for anyone actually in the game, the truth is blatant. If you want the house you’re probably going to have to pay above the list price.

Fresh stats: Today I have some brand new stats. I’ve never broken out numbers like this before and I’m excited to share. Even if you’re not local I hope this gives perspective or ideas for how to visualize your market. 

Quick thoughts: On average properties sold four percent above their original list price last month in the Sacramento region. Or in other words, buyers on average paid $23,787 more than the original list price. Keep in mind these stats represent the average and there are many properties that went above and below this amount. There are also quite a few homes that sold at the original list price. In short, this doesn’t mean literally every buyer paid $23,787 above asking. Also, there are few sales below $300K, so take that stat with a grain of salt.

Four reasons why prices have risen so quickly:

1) Supply & demand: Prices have been increasing rapidly due to supply and demand being so lopsided. It’s no secret we have a shortage of listings and excessive demand. This has created a market that feels like chaos where the median price in April in the Sacramento region is up 11% since January. Of course rates below 3% have also played a role in supercharging the market.

2) Appraisal gap: Buyers are paying above the appraised value or bridging the “appraisal gap” so to speak (the difference between the appraised value and the contract price). In some cases appraisal waivers are also helping properties close at higher levels. 

3) Priced too low: Let’s be real. Some listings are being priced way too low and this causes properties to get bid up. I’m not minimizing how aggressive the market is. I’m just saying there are cases where listings are painfully low. 

4) More at the top: We’ve been seeing more sales at higher prices in the local market as well as across the country. Therefore when looking at lofty price stats we have to realize some of the massive growth has to do with what is selling rather than pure price appreciation.

I hope this was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you about the stats or points? If you are a buyer, what are you experiencing out there? What did I miss?

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The danger of overpricing & chasing real estate unicorns

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Overpricing. It happens all the time in real estate – especially in today’s market. I get where sellers are coming from because we’ve had so much glowing real estate news for more than five years. But that doesn’t mean we’re in a market where you can command whatever price you want. 

Chasing the unicorn: Many sellers are pricing their properties too high. It’s as if they expect record-breaking prices and multiple offers every time because of how “hot” the market is. Homeowners get so fixated on the idea of a fiery market that they price for that one unicorn buyer who’s going to mysteriously pay more than anyone else. This “unicorn” will ignore all recent sales and listings and magically offer 10% higher than anything. In Sacramento the idea is a Bay Area “unicorn” will swoop in with fat stacks of cash and totally ignore similar comps that are selling for less. It’s nice when sellers get lucky like that, but in today’s market buyers are actually much more finicky about price. Despite a legitimate housing shortage we don’t have a market where buyers are willing to pay crazy prices that are totally disconnected from reality. In other words, we don’t have a market where pricing for the “unicorn” makes good sense (unless you want to sit on the market instead of sell). Take a look at the image below that shows price reductions over the past 24 hours in the Sacramento region. These 78 properties have been priced too high for the market.

My advice? Price for the real market instead of the unicorn. Give the most weight to similar sales and similar listings that are actually getting into contract.

Aspirational pricing: If you aren’t familiar with the term aspirational pricing, Jonathan Miller coined this phrase. It’s a great way to describe the phenomenon of sellers fixating on prices that are simply disconnected from the real market.

10 reasons why sellers overprice:

1) Hot headlines are imposed on the price instead of looking at comps. 

2) Dissimilar sales are used as “comps” to price the home.

3) Too much emphasis is put on price per sq ft instead of actual comps.

4) A property is priced like it doesn’t have a busy street or adverse location.

5) Sales from a higher-priced area are “cherry-picked” to price the property.

6) The seller is too subjective and feels “my house is better.”

7) The owner believes the cost of any upgrades should be paid for by buyers.

8) A more aggressive trend from a lower price range is assumed to be present at a higher price range.

9) It’s a tricky property and not easy to come up with a price.

10) What else?

My article in Comstock’s: By the way, I wrote an article in Comstock’s Magazine this month on the value of upgrades. Check it out if you want.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Are you seeing sellers price for “unicorns”? What reasons do you think sellers overprice? Did I miss something?

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The problem with non-permitted additions in real estate

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Non-permitted additions can cause huge problems. Last week I wrote about how I valued a garage conversion without permits, and I wanted to follow up with some expanded thoughts. As I mentioned, in this situation I gave value to a conversion because I was able to show the market was willing to pay for it. Yet it’s not always that easy, so let’s dig deeper. By the way, props to Cynthia, Gary, and Bryan for stellar blog comments that prodded me to follow-up. Any thoughts?

54025005 - demolishing the old kitchen - exposing the studs, existing plumbing and electrical work

Issues when dealing with a lack of permits:

1) Lenders & Appraisers: Here’s the bottom line. Some lenders don’t want to lend on properties with non-permitted additions. In short, a non-permitted area might have legitimate value in the market, but some lenders will tell appraisers NOT to give the space any value. At the same time other lenders are okay with value being given, but they want appraisers to show a few comps with similar non-permitted areas to prove the market is willing to pay for the space (that’s tricky to find).

2) Illegal: Does the addition conform with what zoning allows? This is a key question. For instance, if zoning only allows one unit and the seller has a non-permitted second unit that hands-down would never be allowed, it’s an enormous liability for an appraiser to be giving value to something like that. Likewise, imagine if an addition was built within the setbacks on a site, which would make it illegal and maybe even a safety issue.

3) Building Department Reaction: Is it likely the non-permitted area can become permitted? What is it going to cost? This is where it’s worth giving the building department a call. I don’t recommend mentioning a specific address at first so you don’t raise red flags, but call and maybe ask about a hypothetical situation to see what the cost and feasibility might be for getting permits. Remember, not all markets are the same either. For instance, since 1976 the City of Davis has had a program where building inspectors visit all properties before they close escrow to ensure there are no code violations. In short, you can’t get away with non-permitted additions in Davis if you plan to sell (but you can elsewhere).

4) The Struggle of Different Opinions: A friend gave me a call to talk through a situation with a garage that was converted into a second unit without permits. The appraiser gave little weight to the addition because of zoning issues, but the seller thought it should have carried more weight. There was a solid back-up offer on the table, but regardless of whether this addition was worth more or not, the thing I told my friend was there was no guarantee a future appraiser or lender was going to see the situation any differently. Owners in scenarios like this tend to say, “The lack of permits wasn’t a problem when we first bought the house”, but guidelines and what appraisers report might have changed over time. Moreover, not every appraiser or lender is going to see things the same way.

Advice about non-permitted areas:

1) Minimal value: Expect there is generally going to be less value for something not permitted than something fully permitted (thanks Captain Obvious).

2) Bigger is Bigger: Buyers seem to ignore smaller-ticket items that weren’t permitted, but the bigger something is, the more likely it is going to be a bigger deal that it wasn’t permitted. For example, there is a huge difference between a non-permitted covered patio and a 400 sq ft addition that was not permitted.

3) Glorified Storage: Keep in mind an appraiser might be instructed by a lender to count a non-permitted area as storage instead of living space. So that second story attic conversion might be really sweet, but an appraiser might end up treating it like storage instead of extra square footage.

4) The Easy Answer: Getting permits can help avoid future loan problems. Be sure to keep a copy of the permit too so any appraiser or buyer can see everything has been signed off.

NOTE ON GIVING VALUE TO SOLAR: This is off-topic, but there was a recent class on solar and it was apparently mentioned I do not give value to solar systems. That’s not accurate. However, I have said a LEASED solar system does not get value because it’s personal property. Just wanted to clarify. You can read this post and another for some thoughts on solar.

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Questions: How have you seen a lack of permits impact a transaction or appraisal? Would you buy a home if it had an addition that was not permitted? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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Eating tacos and 10 housing market truths

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I eat tacos with investors. That’s right. A few times a year a group of real estate friends get together to talk shop at the best taco joint in town. It’s informal and fun because we’re friends, but it’s also valuable to get a sense for what everyone is seeing out there in the trenches. Anyway, despite not having tacos in front of me at the moment, I wanted to share some of the things that have seemed to come up lately in housing market conversations. Anything to add?

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10 truths about the housing market

1) One high or low sale doesn’t make or break a market.

2) Just because inventory is low doesn’t mean buyers will pay any price.

3) The market isn’t doing the same thing in every neighborhood or price range.

4) There is no such thing as a national housing market. The “national” market is actually made up of thousands of local markets (Jonathan Miller).

5) Appraisers only measure the market. They don’t make values go up or down.

6) There is no recipe or formula for the way a housing “bubble” has to pop. In other words, for all the conversation about a current “bubble”, if the market did “pop” it wouldn’t necessarily have to look the same way it did 10 years ago.

7) Real estate advice has a shelf life, which means it might not be good for every market (or every price range or location).

8) Markets aren’t so perfect that we can say a property is only worth one certain amount like $336,456. It’s best to recognize there is a reasonable range for what the market might be willing to pay (say $330,000 to $340,000). Is there any support for the appraised value to come in at or near the list price or contract price? Does this price fall within the range of what is reasonable?

9) “Negative market trends are not the end of the world. They represent opportunities for some” (from Jonathan Miller).

10) Thinking positively or talking positively about the market doesn’t drive the market. In other words, “you can’t overpower the market with the power of positive thinking. The market doesn’t care what you or your client thinks” Jonathan Miller.

You may notice I referenced New York Appraiser Jonathan Miller a few times above. I realize that makes me look like a fanboy, but that’s okay because he’s an influential voice in my life and I appreciate his weekly notes every Friday. Last week Jonathan knocked it out of the park in his section entitled “McMansions, McEgos, McPrices and McHonor” (that’s where I picked up point #9 and #10).

how-to-think-like-an-appraiser-class-by-ryan-lundquist-150x150Class I’m teaching on Thursday: On September 29 from 9am-12pm I’m doing my favorite class at SAR called HOW TO THINK LIKE AN APPRAISER. We’re going to have a blast talking through seeing properties like an appraiser does. We’ll look at comp selection and talk through so many issues. My goal is to help you walk away full of actionable ideas. Register here.

Questions: What types of conversations are coming up in your circles right now? What is #11? I’d love to hear your take.

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