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Predicting housing price cycles isn’t so easy

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Does the housing market really have price cycles? Yes. But these cycles aren’t always so rigid and perfectly predictable like so many people think they are. Let’s talk about this today. I’d love to hear your take also.

Fortune cookie with a message that says, "The housing market will change in the future."

UPCOMING PUBLIC SPEAKING GIGS:

  • 3/15/2022 NARPM Luncheon (details)
  • 3/22/2022 SAFE Credit Union market update (details)
  • 4/28/2022 SAR Think Like an Appraiser (details)

THE MARKET FROM 1975

Last week I wrote about doom and gloom articles, and today I wanted to follow up by looking at some visuals using the Freddie Mac Price Index.

Limited data: I have stats from 1998 through the local MLS, but it’s really difficult to get older stats. However, Freddie Mac does have a price index from 1975 for Sacramento, so that’s what I used here to help tell the story of value.

Is the Freddie Mac Price Index accurate? Yes, I think so. I lined up the median price for Sacramento County (my stats) over the past twenty years (red), and compared the Freddie Mac Price Index on a separate axis (green). I would say the trend looks really similar, so this makes me trust the trend from the 70s, 80s, and 90s also. If you have a better source, speak up.

This shows the Freddie Mac Price Index and Sacramento County median price over the past two decades (a line graph). These two metrics are very similar.

NOT ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION

When looking at the Freddie Mac Price Index it’s clear there are multiple price cycles over the years since 1975. And when we don’t adjust for inflation, the current price (nominal price) is way above the previous peak.

Freddie Mac Price Index line graph for Sacramento from 1975 (not adjusted for inflation). This visual shows ups and downs in the market through the years.

ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION

What happens when we adjust for inflation? We can still see market price cycles, but we also see the current price point is so much closer to the previous peak in 2005 instead of being way above. There isn’t anything magical about being “back to peak prices” of course. I’m just saying when we start comparing today with really old prices, it becomes important to consider inflation because the value of the dollar hasn’t stayed the same.

Freddie Mac Price Index line graph. This graph is adjusted for inflation from 1975.

I dig this graph especially. When we adjust for inflation, it sort of smooths out the trend a bit. In other words, it makes the trend a bit less extreme.

Freddie Mac Price Index in Sacramento. This line graph has a dark line to adjust for inflation and a light line that doesn't adjust for inflation. This helps us see what inflation-adjusted prices look like (less extreme basically)

I hope you liked the visuals.

STUFF TO CONSIDER ABOUT PRICE CYCLES

1) Not the new template: What happened last time isn’t the new template for every future market correction. It’s easy to look at prices today and say, “We’re about ready to implode just like we did back then,” but the truth is there isn’t a market formula where prices always drop by the same amount. I hear things like, “The market will drop again by 50%,” or “The market will likely dip by 10%.” Both of these statements have one thing in common. They are guesses about a future that has not happened. As I always say, nobody has a crystal ball. That doesn’t mean we ignore trends today, but it does mean we are humble about our ability to know the future. But if you do want to test your prophet skills, tell me this. Who is going to be president in two years? What will bitcoin be worth in three months? And will mom jeans be more or less popular next spring?

2) Fixation on last time: I think in some cases we get so fixated on the previous bubble that we start saying a correction like that is locked in for the future. Look, I’m not glossing over rapid price growth lately that feels unsustainable. All I’m saying is when we back up and look at a few more price cycles, it’s clear not all up and down cycles have unfolded the same way. In my mind it’s like having multiple kids. There are similarities, but there can also be big differences.

3) The previous peak doesn’t matter: Getting back to the previous price peak doesn’t hold any power for the market today. In other words, there is nothing magical about crossing that threshold – especially since that market was full of fraud. The truth is we are way beyond the peak already when you consider prices without being adjusted for inflation. This is true on the national level also. But there isn’t anything noteworthy about getting back to the peak when adjusting for inflation either. Case-in-point. Around 2002, we were back to the prior peak from the 1990s in Sacramento. People could’ve said, “Bro, we’re about to drop because we’re back!!!” But then the market kept going for three more years…

4) No seven-year rule: The market doesn’t have to behave a certain way every seven years. Bottom line. Some people talk about a seven-year price cycle where prices go up for seven years before they go down. Well, here we are in year eleven of price growth in Sacramento.

5) There is a cycle: There really is a rhythm where prices go up and down, but it’s not so easy to perfectly predict either. In many locations the market tends to change every decade or so. But keep in mind some markets are flat over time rather than super cyclical like California. Here’s a post I wrote called, “Is the housing market going to crash?” The goal of the post isn’t to say YES or NO, but rather to think through some of the bigger issues.

Data Sources:

FRED CPI
Freddie Mac Price Index
How to adjust for inflation (YouTube video)

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

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Questions: What stands out to you most in this post? What did I miss? I’d love to hear your take.

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The myth of the collapsing market (and a big Sacramento market update)

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Positive real estate news is sexy. It gets clicks. It makes us feel good. And we love sharing it. But what happens when the market cools? Well, it’s not always easy to digest. In fact, lots of people freak out and think the market is starting to tank when it’s actually just doing its normal thing of slowing. Today let’s talk about the danger of embracing the collapsing market myth, and then take a deep look at the slowing Sacramento market. Any thoughts?

The myth of the collapsing market: The market tends to slow down around this time of year. Just as the weather changes, so does the real estate market. The kids go back to school, sales volume usually starts to slide, inventory goes up, and prices soften. Yet despite this happening nearly every single year, we hear things like, “The market is beginning to take a big turn” or “The ‘bubble’ has finally popped.” Case-in-point, I watched a video a few weeks back from a national show that said new construction home prices in Texas were beginning to take a turn, and that the Texas market was six months ahead of everyone else. Maybe this show is correct, but my problem is the host made a huge sweeping market statement based on a VERY minor dip in prices from June to July. I suppose I could do the same in Sacramento since the median price dipped 1% last month. The truth is we’ll see many more articles like this in coming months because we tend to confuse a seasonal softening with a big market turn. It’s like we forget the market is cyclical at this time of year.

My advice? Cut through the hype and know the seasonal market wherever you are located in the United States. What does the market normally do at this time of year? What normally happens to prices, sales volume, and inventory? Understanding what a slowing season tends to look like can help us give advice to friends and clients, and we can avoid saying the market is tanking just because prices dipped last month. Of course at some point the market really could collapse, but unless we are seeing symptoms beyond a normal seasonal slowing, it’s probably okay to be cautious of a doom & gloom housing message.

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

The stats have been glowing for months in Sacramento County, but last month we finally saw a dip in prices. In short, the glowing stats are now showing a slowing. But that’s not really a surprise because we all felt this slowing in the market for the past 30-60 days. It’s just we didn’t see it show up in the sales stats until now. After all, it takes a month or two to see slower pendings close escrow. Anyway, the median price dipped by about 1%, inventory increased, and most importantly it took 3 days longer to sell last month than the previous month. I know, there are still multiple offers and there is still upward pressure in some areas and price ranges. I get that. Remember, the market is slowing, but that does not mean it is dull or slow. Ultimately when looking at price metrics, the market is up anywhere from 7-9% from last year, and sales volume is about the same as last year too, which shows the market is trying to normalize. Housing inventory in the region is about 10% lower than it was last year at the same time, which reminds us that the market is still more aggressive compared to last year. Lastly, if the market was collapsing, I’d suspect we would be seeing a big change in the psyche of buyers, a big change in inventory, and a big change in sales volume. Not that the market has to tank the same way all the time, but if values were turning we’d likely expect to see something much more out-of-the-ordinary beyond all the normal seasonal stuff we’re seeing right now.

DOWNLOAD 66 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY STATS:

  1. The median price is currently $348,000 and dipped 1% last month.
  2. The median price is 7.6% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in August was 4.7% lower this year than 2016. There were 1668 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 24 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 2 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 12 days, which means properties are selling quickly.
  6. It took 3 more days to sell in August compared to July (median days).
  7. FHA sales were 22.6% of all sales last month in the county.
  8. Only 0.8% of sales last month were bank-owned & 1.5% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $223, which is slightly higher than last month (8.7% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price decreased about 1.5% last month and is currently $378,885. This is 6.8% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 12.5% of all sales last month.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO REGION STATS:

  1. The median price is $389,900 and declined slightly last month.
  2. The median price is 9% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in August was 0.2% higher this year than 2016. There were 2771 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 28 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 3 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 13 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 2 days last month, which helps shows a slowing in the market.  
  7. FHA sales were 18.1% of all sales last month.
  8. Only 0.8% of sales last month were bank-owned & 1.48% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $227, which is the same as last month (7.9% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price declined slightly last month and is currently $430,101. This is 8.6% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 14% of all sales last month.

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

 

PLACER COUNTY STATS:

  1. The median price is currently $462,000 and increased about 2% last month (but still down from a couple months ago).
  2. The median price is 7.4% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in August was 14% higher this year than 2016. There were 637 single family detached sales.
  4. It took an average of 30 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 10 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 15 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 3 days last month, which helps shows a slowing in the market. 
  7. FHA sales were 12.5% of all sales.
  8. There were only 2 bank-owned sales last month and only 9 short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was $229, which is slightly higher than last month (7.4% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price increased about 0.5% last month and is currently $508.686. This is 7.7% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 14.4% of all sales last month.

DOWNLOAD 66 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What signs of slowing have you noticed? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

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Tips for working with appraisers when they’re really busy

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It’s been taking appraisers longer to get their reports done lately. Have you noticed? In many parts of the country appraisers have simply been flooded with work, so quick turn-times have suffered or vanished. In light of this I wanted to give some tips for working with appraisers during times like these. This is really geared toward appraisals for loans instead of private work (divorce, estate, litigation, etc…). Anything else you’d add? Feel free to comment below.

Working with appraisers - sacramento appraisal blog - image purchased and used with permission from 123rf

Tips for working with appraisers when they’re really busy:

  1. Turn-times: Sometimes agents say, “We really need the appraisal in three days because that’s when contingencies will be removed”. But the appraiser just got the order yesterday and the lender may be giving 7-10 days to complete the file. For whatever reason the appraisal was simply ordered way too late in the loan process (not the appraiser’s fault).
  2. Communication 101: If an appraiser emails you, I highly recommend emailing back. The appraiser may be trying to save time by avoiding a phone call. Or if an appraiser calls you, just call back (even if you don’t like to use the phone). These days it seems like good business etiquette to try to communicate with people in their preferred method. I know that sounds petty or even offensive, but it’s true. Obviously if an appraiser is asking a million questions via email, just email back and say, “I’d love to chat, but let’s make this a quick phone conversation instead.”
  3. Don’t call incessantly for status: It doesn’t help speed up an appraisal when everyone is asking for status updates. On a practical note, keep in mind appraisers don’t owe status updates to anyone but the client.
  4. Information up front: Take a few minutes to answer common questions and get this information to the appraiser (preferably during the inspection). I recommend using my Information Sheet. Sometimes agents wait to share information about the property until the value comes in too low. Why not be proactive instead about telling the story of the marketing of the property on the front end of the transaction? This just might save time in the transaction too by avoiding challenging a low appraisal.
  5. Offer a rush fee: If lenders or AMCs are concerned about turn-times, one of the best things to do is offer a reasonable fee to begin with AND also a rush fee. Right now many appraisers are still getting blasted with low-ball appraisal fees from Appraisal Management Companies. During such a busy season appraisers are frankly turning these orders down and gravitating toward working with clients who pay better fees and are easier to work with too. The truth is some AMCs are spending extra days or weeks searching for an appraiser who will take a lower fee (and then blaming appraisers for taking too long). Remember, a Borrower might fork out good money for an appraisal, but how much of the fee is the appraiser actually getting? If you find an AMC is scraping way too much off the top, maybe it’s time to do business with a lender or AMC who is actually paying the appraiser a reasonable fee. On a related note it seems like the market is experiencing an upward fee correction since appraisal fees have been undercut by AMCs for years.
  6. Longer escrows: It can be frustrating that turn-times change because we like to think they’re set in stone or always less than a week, but that’s what markets do. I find something similar has happened with contractors locally as many are absolutely swamped. In short, it might not be a good market to promise a 30-day escrow.
  7. Do repairs up front: If an appraiser is busy, the same appraiser may also need more time to go back out to the property to verify repairs were made. If you know there are obvious repairs, it might be a good idea to have the owner make them in advance so you can avoid a re-inspection. If you are concerned about repairs, reach out to a local appraiser or a loan officer before the property hits the market so you can maybe glean some wisdom.
  8. The little stuff: Some of the most common repairs are actually installation of smoke detectors and carbon monoxide alarms (in California). Even if the appraiser doesn’t care about these things since they have nothing to do with value, a lender may be asking the appraiser to verify they are there. As an FYI, it’s been law for 5 years in California for CO alarms to be in most residential properties, yet this is still one of the top repair issues.

I hope this was helpful.

Podcast with 2 Agents: By the way, last week I did a podcast with two local real estate agents (The Two Jakes). You can give it a listen below (or here) and check out iTunes or the Worley Real Estate website.

Questions: Anything else you’d add? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take and any stories you have to share.

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How much value does an extra bedroom add?

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How much value does an extra bedroom add? The bad news is there isn’t a one-size fits all answer that makes sense for every neighborhood. But the good news is we can think through some of the key issues to respond intelligently. On that note, let’s kick around some ideas below. I’d love to hear your take in the comments.

value of a bedroom - sacramento appraisal blog

Things to consider about the value of an extra bedroom:

  1. More is often better: Let’s be realistic. More bedrooms is usually a better thing for value because a home with more bedrooms is more marketable to buyers. That’s obvious, though there comes a point when there are too many bedrooms, right? (like Evander Holyfield’s old house with 12 bedrooms and 21 bathrooms).
  2. Diminishing value with each bedroom: Generally speaking the added value of extra bedrooms tends to diminish with each additional bedroom. It’s sort of like how you pay less for each ounce of Starbucks coffee the more you buy. In other words, the value difference between a 1-bedroom home compared to a 2-bedroom home could be far more substantial than the value difference between a 2-bedroom home and a 3-bedroom home (or 3-bedrooms vs. 4-bedrooms).
  3. Canned adjustments: It’s tempting to give a token value adjustment for bedroom count differences. Maybe we heard it somewhere or learned from a “mentor” the value adjustment should be $10,000 for each bedroom. So we give this adjustment any time we see a bedroom difference. But does this amount really make sense if we are talking about 2 vs 3 bedrooms and 5 vs 6 bedrooms? Don’t you think the value variance could be huge for 2 vs 3 bedrooms but maybe minimal at best for 5 vs 6 bedrooms?
  4. Layout:  At times a 3-bedroom home may sell on par with a 4-bedroom home because of a stellar layout. Imagine a 1400 sq ft 3-bedroom house compared to a 1400 sq ft 4-bedroom house. One house obviously has more bedrooms, which on paper makes it sound more valuable, but the 3-bedroom house very likely has a larger Living Room, which could help it compete well with the 4-bedroom home. This is a good reminder to be careful about blindly letting bedroom count have the final say.
  5. It’s easy to adjust twice: If we adjust a comp for both square footage and bedroom count, we might actually double-dip on our adjustments. I’m not saying both adjustments are not needed, but at times it may suffice to adjust one or the other instead of both.
  6. The story of the comps: At the end of the day we need to find similar sales and let those sales tell the story of value. This means if we are valuing a 4-bedroom house, let’s use some 4-bedroom comps. Or if we are valuing a 3-bedroom house, let’s be sure we are using at least some 3-bedroom comps. Of course it’s okay to use sales with a different bedroom count and make value adjustments if needed. As a closing example, it’s easy to claim there is a huge price premium for that 5th bedroom, so it’s tempting to give an automatic canned adjustment. But have other 5-bedroom homes really sold at a premium? Let’s look closely at sales and try to find the answer.

I hope this was helpful.

Questions: What is point #7? Did I leave anything out? I’d love to hear your take.

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