Ryan Lundquist

It’s just NOT a cash market like it used to be

April 17, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 5 Comments

Investors are playing the market like Monopoly and buying everything in sight… Well, that’s what many sellers think. But it’s not true. Like many markets across the country, in Sacramento we’re actually seeing significantly less cash today than during the heyday of investor activity a few years back.

The Big Takeaway: It’s not an aggressive investor market like it used to be around 2012 when investors really were buying everything, so it’s important to price for today’s trends instead of a rapidly moving cash market from the past.

The Mistake: Sellers tend to aim for that one elusive cash buyer from the Bay Area, but we have nearly 50% less cash today in the Sacramento region compared to 2012. The market is competitive still, but we’re not seeing huge price gains like we did when investors were running the show 5+ years ago.

Three Graph Takeaways:

1) Cash happens at every price point.
2) Cash is more common at lower prices.
3) Sorry if these graphs are confusing.

Now some visuals:

1) A View Without Dots: Let’s start with a graph without dots. Keep in mind this same trend is seen below. It’s just not so easy to see in the midst of over 70,000 sales on one image…

2) A Panoramic View: Here’s all single family detached sales in Sacramento County (not condos).

3) More Cash at Lower Prices: It’s not easy to see the trend here, but cash purchases are concentrated more heavily at lower prices. Keep in mind in 2018 we really only had close to 15% of sales go cash. This is what it looks like on a graph…

4) Big Cash-Only View: Here’s all cash sales since 2012 at the bottom of the market in Sacramento County under $1M. Can you see a higher concentration in 2012 (a thicker black)?

5) A Closer Cash View: Here’s a view of cash purchases under $500,000 to help see the trend a little better.

6) A Close-up for 2019: Here’s a look at 2019 only. When we zoom in we can clearly see that cash is present, but not dominating the market. By the way, who can tell me why this visual has lines like this? The reason is simple, but kind of cool to see on a graph.

Conventional & Bay Area Buyers: Let’s remember some investors these days are using conventional financing because of such favorable terms. So in this regard I look at cash stats with an asterisk. Also, cash is a bit higher in Placer County and El Dorado County these days, and some of that stems from Bay Area buyers (not that Bay Area buyers aren’t also targeting places like Elk Grove, Midtown, etc..).

New Market Video: Here’s a video I put together to talk through the competitive and flat market. Here’s what I mean:

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

Questions: What are you seeing out there? If you are not in Sacramento, is the trend similar in your area?

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The booming FLAT market & rate addiction

April 11, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

The market is getting hotter, but it’s also pretty flat. Let’s talk about this as well as low rate addiction. Then for those interested I have a huge local market update.

Two things:

1) Competitive but flat market: The spring market is definitely competitive. Real estate agents are saying it’s “hot” and they’re right because buyers are hungry, sales volume is up, and it’s taking less time to sell. BUT prices also seem a little flat. I know, that sounds crazy since there’s so much competition, but it’s what the stats are showing. Let’s remember it’s possible to have a market with lots of competition while prices are more subdued or sideways. In other words, just because it’s competitive doesn’t mean prices are going nuts.

2) Rate addiction: Lower rates in 2019 have brought buyers back into the market after a big slump in 2018. It just goes to show how sensitive our market is to rate changes. In other words, it seems the market is struggling to move forward in glory without low rates. Sounds healthy, right?

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Spring is feeling fairly normal so far and March was actually a strong month. Let’s talk about this.

THE SHORT VERSION:

Price growth is definitely slowing
Sales volume has slumped for 10 months
Volume was strong in March though
Choose comps wisely
I’m now publishing El Dorado County stats
Most metrics are doing what we’d expect for the spring
This post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee.

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here’s some of the bigger topics to consider right now.

Slow or flat price growth: The median price in Sacramento last month is actually the same as it was one year ago. It’s been a very long time since we’ve seen that happen. Otherwise most other price metrics in the region are up slightly between 2-3% over the year. This is a very modest change over twelve months and it reminds us price momentum is slowing. In many areas it seems prices are hovering around or lower than they were during the height of summer. But keep in mind this isn’t totally abnormal for the spring either because sometimes the new year immediately picks up right where it left off during the height of summer and other times the stats don’t get back to where they were until about May or so. Thus in some senses we’re still waiting to see how this spring market is going to unfold.

A more normal-ish spring: Overall most metrics look normal for the time of year. Prices ticked up again from the fall lull, it took eight less days to get into contract from last month, and there just isn’t that much on the market right now. Part of having an anemic number of listings is normal because the market doesn’t tend to hit its stride until April, but we’re also seeing the byproduct of buyers devouring listings because of low rates.

Choosing comps today: When a market is showing slower price growth it’s important to be realistic about comps. Sellers often want to get super aggressive, but I have some quick advice. Don’t. Give strong weight to similar properties that are getting into contract, and don’t price like it’s the rapidly increasing market from yesteryear. It’s not. Remember, in some areas you might pull comps and not see much price difference at all from the summer of 2018 or even from the spring of last year. Sellers, please remember you are not guaranteed price growth, so don’t price like you’re entitled to it.

Improving volume, sort of: Sales volume definitely made a rebound last month from the profound dullness we saw these past two quarters, yet it was still down 5.7% in the region from last March. And it’s down 7.2% over the past twelve months. Think about it this way. Being down seven percent doesn’t sound like much, but it means there’s been more than two thousand less sales this year in the Sacramento region compared to last year. It sounds bigger when we think of it that way, right? While volume improved this past month, we’ve still had ten months in a row of lower volume, and that’s the bigger story. Moreover, the first quarter was down 10% in the region compared to last year.

Pendings show us the market: Sales from March tell us more about what the market used to be like in January and February when these homes got into contract. So we have to look to the listings and pendings right now to understand where the current market is really at. As of now pendings look pretty strong, which suggests we’ll have another month of stronger volume in April.

Less offers (but actually more): Multiple offers are down about 12% in the region this year compared to last year, but the number of multiple offers actually increased from February to March. This is exactly what we’d expect to see happen in the spring, so don’t write home over it. But it’s still interesting to see.

Price sensitivity: One out of every two homes are getting multiple offers in Sacramento County, and it’s a reminder buyers need to bring strong offers. But sellers ought to price correctly too. Buyers are not desperate and willing to pay unrealistic prices, so I advise aiming for the market instead of that one mythical buyer who will overpay for some reason.

Waiting: We’re waiting and needing a few more months of data to see how this year is going to unfold. It’ll be most interesting to see if we get a little more price growth too (beyond just rebounding from the dull fall). The verdict is not in yet for this year, and there is still an element of uncertainty because we have a market that feels heavily driven by low rates for the time being.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SPRING GETTING HOT TECHNICALLY: The market is heating up for 2019. We’re seeing price changes, lower inventory, and increased sales volume. So prices are up from the dull fall, but they’re also flat as you can see under #4.

The median price is actually down in Placer County, but I’d suggest waiting a few months before making a big deal out of that since Placer County doesn’t have many sales each month, so data can be a little more volatile Yet this hasn’t happened in a long time either.

2) SLOWING MOMENTUM: Despite the heating, stats show the market is slowing down when we look at the rate of change by year. Looking at monthly, quarterly, and annual numbers helps give a balanced view of things.

3) SALES VOLUME SLUMP for 10 months: It’s important to look at sales volume in a few ways to get the bigger picture. Here it is by month and year.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

March volume down 4.9%
Volume is down 6.2% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

March volume down 5.7%
Volume is down 7.2% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

March volume down 5.5%
Volume is down 7.7% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

March volume down 8.9%
Volume is down 9.0% over the past 12 months

4) LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR: It’s been a LONG time since we’ve seen some metrics almost identical to what they were last year. Can you see why I’m saying prices seem flat lately? This may not be true in every single price range or neighborhood of course, but this shows us price momentum is slowing. With that being said, it’s still okay to say the market is “hot”. It is. But I’d say competition is hotter than price appreciation.

Quick note on how NOT to use my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Now here are a bunch of images. Please enjoy.

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ graphs: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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It might not be an appraiser at the inspection due to new “hybrid” appraisals

April 2, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 31 Comments

It’s happening. It might not be an appraiser who shows up for the appraisal inspection. I’ve been talking about the potential of “hybrid” valuations like this, and now they’re here.

The gist is somebody besides the appraiser inspects the property and then gives the inspection details to the appraiser to do the “value part” (without seeing the property). Last week Chris Little, a Realtor friend, was talking to me about his first experience with a non-appraiser inspecting one of his listings, so I asked him some questions.

Ryan: What gave it away that this person wasn’t an appraiser?

Chris: When he called and asked for an appointment to access the property he identified himself as a property inspector working on the appraisal. I asked if he had a lockbox key (every appraiser I know has one) and he said he did not. We agreed to meet at the property. At the house he gave me his card which said he was a project manager for a company in upstate New York. There was no mention of appraiser on his card.

Ryan: What did the inspector do at the house? Did he measure it?

Chris: He came in and took a bunch of photographs which he said he would upload to their portal so the appraiser could look at them. He went outside and measured the home.

Ryan: What price was this house?

Chris: The home was listed in the low $800,000’s. The buyers sold their former home and were renting on a short term basis. They were putting down 55% of the purchase price.

Ryan: Did the inspector say he would pass along information you gave?

Chris: Yes, he asked a few questions and said he would include that in his report.

Ryan: What are your concerns about this new process?

Chris: My overarching concern is the validity of the “appraisal.” The buyer was charged less than a traditional appraisal and in my view received less. The proper valuation of a property is essential for many reasons. Inaccurate or incomplete information can effect value and that can effect a transaction, both during the transaction and later on if there is ever a question about value resulting from loss bankruptcy, foreclosure.

Ryan: Anything else to add?

Chris: In my view, this “hybrid” appraisal is meant to streamline the lending process yet puts homeowners and lenders at risk. I don’t think there is a lender out there who would use a discount Cardiologist or Oncologist if they had heart problems or cancer. Why would you underwrite a loan based on an unlicensed individual snapping pictures and taking measurements? One thing that particularly concerned me about the house in question was at almost 4,900 square feet it was more than twice as large as any other home so developing comps would take someone with real knowledge of the market to develop the appropriate value. This unusual Sacramento home doesn’t seem like a good fit for a watered-down process like this.

Ryan: Thanks so much for your time Chris.

Now a few quick things.

MY CLOSING THOUGHTS:

1) This is a move that diminishes the role appraisers play in the housing market for the sake of so-called convenience. Banks are saying, “Don’t worry. Trust us. It’s all good…” While there is a place for big data in real estate, let’s not forget the crucial role appraisers play as a systems of checks and balances. Do we really trust banks to do the right thing?

2) Value isn’t just about size or bedroom and bathroom count. There is so much more an appraiser observes while walking through a house and talking with the agent. To be fair it seems like this would less of an issue on a cookie cutter house, but on something unique it could be a disaster waiting to happen.

3) If the inspector does not have adequate training, there could be a legitimate issue measuring the house accurately (and we know how important that is).

4) Could this become risky for the rest of the market if inflated appraisal waiver or “hybrid” sales become the new comps?

Communication advice for Realtors: It’s going to be key to ask for a business card and be sure you know who you are talking to. My advice? Show up with my appraiser info sheet filled out so an “inspector” can hopefully pass along relevant details to the appraiser. Remember though, the appraiser is getting paid very little do this type of report (I hear $100 to $150), so the “hybrid” system is not designed to encourage appraisers to spend lots of time on the appraisal…

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

Questions: What do you think of “hybrid” valuations? What are the positives and negatives? Any stories to share?

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Tips for choosing comps on a unique home (straw-bale house)

March 26, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 20 Comments

It almost sounds like the big bad wolf story, but there really are homes built from straw. Literally. Today I want to mention a few things about this type of construction, share some photos of a local straw-bale house, and then talk briefly about how I approached appraising this one.

What’s a straw-bale house? It’s a type of construction that uses stacked bales of straw for the exterior walls. I know, it sounds really cheap, but check out the pictures. The exterior usually has stucco or plaster, so unless you knew where to look, you probably wouldn’t even know about the bales. Read more here.

Thank you Realtor Steve Evans for permission to share these photos.

Truth window: This is a truth window on the inside of the house. It’s basically a way for the builder to prove the house was indeed made from bales of straw. Of course the walls are also two feet thick, which is also a clue.

Energy efficiency: These types of homes are incredibly energy-efficient, so beyond their aesthetic we have to consider the savings in energy here too. By the way, I’m not aware of any other straw-bale homes in Sacramento County, so speak up if you know of something.

I loved seeing this house in person. I hope you enjoyed the photos.

How the “hay” do we value something like this? (sorry)

Here’s some things I kept in mind during my appraisal. By the way, my appraisal was done for the owner prior to the property listing on the market.

1) Three model match straw-bale comps: In an ideal world we’d have other straw-bale homes for comparison. That might be more realistic in outlying rural areas where this type of construction is a little more common, but not so much for the ‘burbs. In short, I studied some other sales in outlying areas, but they really weren’t similar enough to justify using them as comps.

2) Too unique or not: One of the things I like to keep in mind is whether there is a market or not for a unique home. In this case the house had vibe and there was a good chance the market was going to respond positively to the Southwestern feel. In my mind this property really just felt more like a custom home rather than something a particular owner built that nobody else would want. By the way, here’s a local house called “The Shipwreck House.” Is there a huge market for something like this?

3) Location, location, location: I gave strong weight to the actual location of the house in the 95841 zip code. I asked myself what would be a reasonable price for a custom and unique home of this size for the location (it was on 0.55 acres too, which helped).

4) Other unique homes: I didn’t have other straw-bale comps in the local market, but I did consider other interesting properties. In fact, some Realtor friends on Facebook definitely came through in pointing me toward adobe homes and ICF block homes. One of the strongest comps in my mind was this house below that was located three miles away in a different zip code.

5) Price position in the market: When something is unique I consider all neighborhood sales, anything that is remotely comparable, and definitely where the top and bottom of the price market is. Then I ask a big question. Where does the subject property fit in the context of the price market?

I hope that was helpful or interesting.

Questions: What do you think of this house? Any other tips? Any stories about when you valued (or listed) a unique home?

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Ryan Lundquist

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