Ryan Lundquist

Can you use brand new sales from the builder as comps?

August 21, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 7 Comments

I get asked this question all the time. “What do you do for comps when a home is only one year old? Can you compare it to brand new homes from the builder?” Here are a few things on my mind.

Builders vs you: It’s important to step back and understand that builders are able to let buyers customize features in a house, and that’s a big deal. This is one of the alluring things about buying a new home, and it’s not something a typical seller is going to do. Thus right away a builder has more power than an owner in the resale market.

Fading premium: Just as buyers tend to pay a price premium for a brand new car, the same thing happens in real estate. And just like a car begins to depreciate when it’s driven off the lot, the same thing happens with a home. When you’ve lived in a home, it’s no longer 100% brand new, so it may not command that same price premium in the market.

The market doesn’t care about your rear landscaping: I often hear, “But my home is better than the brand new ones because I put in rear landscaping. The builder models don’t have a rear yard.” That may be true, but the market might not care about that. The premium a buyer is willing to pay for a brand new house could still likely outweigh your rear landscaping (assuming we’re talking about standard landscaping).

Credits & incentives: Let’s remember builders can offer credits and incentives to close deals and keep prices high. When a market starts to soften especially, we have to ask what concessions are being included to continue to boost prices higher. This is key to understand because if brand new homes have padded prices, they probably aren’t ideal examples of what the market is really willing to pay. Here’s the better question. What would the market pay without all the concessions?

Resale homes rule: In an ideal world we want to find other homes that are one or two years old. Is there any price difference between the new models and resale homes not sold by the builder? That’s the big question and I realize it could be a fat chance we’re going to find something. But don’t be afraid to look through multiple years of sales too. Even if you have an older sale from a few years ago you can compare it to other newer ones at the time. How much of a price difference was there if any? Did the new ones still sell for more? Don’t forget to look to other competitive new developments in town too. You might get some insight there when it comes to brand new vs newer homes.

Keep an eye on the new stuff: I’m not saying to ignore new sales altogether or even to not use them. We should keep an eye on them for sure. Let’s just be cautious about flippantly choosing three brand new sales from the builder and calling it a day without really thinking through whether there is a price difference between brand new vs newer. If I was appraising in this situation I would hope to find at least one resale home somewhere, but I’d also be fine using brand new homes as comps too (but they might need an adjustment down).

The market: Keep in mind there are situations where the market may have gone up, but if the owner also lost some value due to a fading new construction premium, it’s possible the home might not sell for more than it was purchased for.

I hope this was helpful or interesting.

Questions: Which point resonates with you most? What did I miss? Any stories to share?

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A massive garage & paying too much attention to prices

August 13, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

I saw a massive garage while on vacation that I just have to share. I also have some quick thoughts on focusing too much on prices. Those are the two things on my mind. Then for those interested let’s dive deep into the market.

I took almost two weeks off and part of my vacation was to drive to Boise to visit family. Of course my real estate mind doesn’t shut off when out of town, so I was blown away to see a brand new neighborhood with nearly every other house having a massive RV space in the garage. This one actually has two separate RV spaces. I’ve never seen two spaces like this in my market. Have you?

I’ll admit the neighborhood looked a little odd from the street because of the amount of space dedicated to garage doors. It didn’t look bad per se, but it was definitely different. And for the record, I would use both spaces for a massive woodworking shop. Forget the RVs.

Migration garage marketing plan: This is actually brilliant marketing because the builder is clearly appealing to the retiree crowd. In fact, when talking with a few neighborhood residents, they tell me there are lots of ex-Californians as well as people from Texas and North Carolina. This reminds us of the reality of migration. Who is coming to the market? And who is leaving? Those are two vital questions to ask to know a market.

And a quick thought on prices…

Focusing too much on price? Price is THE obsession in real estate, but focusing too much on price can actually cause us to miss the real story of the market. It’s common to hear stuff like, “Prices are up, so the market is doing great.” I get that, but what if we had a market where there are fewer buyers, but those who are buying are still paying higher prices? This is where fixating too much on prices would cause us to miss what’s really happening. After all, if sales volume is sliding, it could be a sign of buyers stepping away from the market, which is a much bigger issue (that will eventually show up in prices if the trend continues). My advice? Pay attention to prices, but give equal or more focus to what is happening with current listings and sales volume. Are buyers absorbing the listings? What are they saying about the market? How is volume changing? Is the number of sales normal or not right now? These are some of the questions to keep asking.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. Prices have been a bit flat, but the bigger story here is the sales volume slump streak of fourteen months has ended. If I had to pick a few phrases to describe the market it would be competitive if priced right, modest price growth, lower volume, and fairly normal stats for the spring / summer so far.

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

Prices feel a bit flat
The volume slump streak ended
July looks fairly normal stat-wise
Pendings are strong right now
Sales volume is still down this year
The market is slowing for the season
Mortgage rates are like a steroid
Inventory is sparse (but not in El Dorado County).

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

The volume slump streak has ended: We had a fourteen month streak going, but it’s now done. For fourteen months in a row we’ve seen sales volume down compared to the same month last year until this month where sales volume was up about 4% in the region. It was a strong month for most local counties, though El Dorado County was down 15% from last year.

Modest price growth: Price metrics in the region are up about 2-5% or so this year compared to last year depending on which price metric we’re looking at. In short, this is pretty modest price growth overall, which has been the narrative all year (did you hear that sellers?).

Not surprised by slowing: At this time of year we tend to see prices begin to cool and it takes longer to sell. This is exactly what the stats are showing us below too. This comes as a shock to some, but if you follow real estate closely there’s a rhythm to the market, which means we can expect this slowing EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. In short, in a normal seasonal slowing we tend to see most of these things below happening to greater degrees as we inch closer to the holidays. This is a good reminder that low mortgage rates and sparse inventory aren’t a trump card to buck a traditional seasonal slowing. And if you want proof, it took three days longer to sell last month in the region compared to the previous month.

Rent control: The City of Sacramento approved a rent control measure today. This is huge news and it’s absolutely something to watch. I’ll be talking lots about this in coming time as the trend unfolds. I actually ran a Twitter poll the other day about rent control.

Inventory is down overall (mostly): In the region we have less than two months of housing supply. This is actually down from last year. In short, inventory is sparse on one hand, though on the other hand the new normal is low inventory. It’s tempting to say stuff like, “It’s normal to have a 5-month supply of homes for sale,” but that’s simply not true for today. Maybe it used to be the norm, but for now our new normal looks to be somewhere between 2 to 2.5 months of housing supply.

Multiple offers: When I talk about the market slowing it can sound confusing because the market feels really competitive when properties are priced right. In fact, you’ll probably get a few offers if you price it correctly. But if you overprice you can very easily get zero offers (really). Here’s a stat I’ve been tracking each month. As you can see nearly half of all sales had more than one offer last month. But then again, nearly half of sales didn’t too.

Inventory is GROWING in El Dorado County: Inventory has been shrinking in the market, but not in El Dorado County. This is a new graph I made and I hope you like it. I know it’s busy, but can you see recently how inventory has been shrinking everywhere besides El Dorado County? I may unpack this in a deeper blog post at some point, but this is definitely something to watch. Part of it could be due to the struggle of obtaining affordable fire insurance also.

Just kidding about rates never going below 4% again: It’s unreal to hear about mortgage rates at 3.5%. Remember just a couple years ago when everyone and their Mom were saying, “Rates have bottomed out.” Just kidding. They didn’t. On a serious note, low rates can act as a steroid to help get buyers off the fence and play the market. It helps buyers also artificially afford higher prices too, which isn’t the healthiest sounding thing in the world.

Property tax appeal season: If you didn’t know, it’s now property tax appeal season in the region. Most counties allow residents to dispute their property taxes between July and late November or early December (Placer County is mid-September). Here’s how the process works. Not many people honestly pay attention to their property taxes in an up market. It’s just true. But I advise for all property owners to stay in tune to be sure they are paying a fair share and no more.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market continues to show price growth, but the rate of change is slowing. This almost sounds offensive to some because the narrative in real estate is often that the market is always blazing hot. But let’s remember “slow” is not a dirty word in real estate. Moreover, do you know what sellers need more than anything right now? They need to price for the real market today rather than the ultra “hot” market of yesteryear.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick. What I mean is prices are up from last year, but not by much. Keep in mind the lowest price ranges are likely the “hottest” market in town too.

3) VOLUME SLUMP: Up until this past month the number of sales slumped in the region for 14 months in a row (and 13 months in Sacramento County). Sales volume was strong in July though and actually up. This year volume is still down about 9% in the region though. Overall despite a lower year of volume, it’s still not outside of normal low ranges (see 2014 and 2015).

4) PRICES SOFTENED IN JULY: The market generally slowed in July in terms of price growth. This is why I’m saying prices feel a bit flat. This is fairly normal for the time of year, and sometimes we see prices bounce up and down as summer comes to a close. Stay tuned. Let’s keep watching.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

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SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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The invasion of tech companies in real estate

July 30, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 28 Comments

Tech companies want a piece of the real estate pie. Amazon. Zillow. Opendoor. Rex. It seems like every week there’s a new company announcing its venture into the game. Here are some things swirling through my mind as I think critically about this trend.

1) Stress & real estate hold hands: Tech companies talk about real estate like it’s as easy as the click of a button, but it’s complicated because humans are involved. There are real people trying to negotiate, advocate for their interests, and navigate complexities in the housing market. Can we make things less stressful? I sure hope so. But are real estate transactions innately stressful because of all the moving parts? Probably.

2) The obsession with speed: There is space for escrows to be faster as tech firms say, but I hope we don’t lose sight of the importance of time. It’s okay to have space for necessary inspections, negotiation based on those inspections, and a reasonable contingency period so buyers and sellers are sure about their decision. There’s this idea that real estate should be instantaneous, and maybe one of these days it will be on the blockchain, but mistakes are easy to make if we go too fast. On that note, let’s be cautious about expecting too much from appraisers in this climate because speed can water down quality. Do you know what we need more than fast appraisals? Reliable appraisals.

3) The fine print: A company like Opendoor or Zillow can offer to buy a house at a price that seems reasonable on paper, but it can quickly become low when money for repairs is skimmed off the top – not to mention a higher commission than what is being paid during public sales on MLS. This is where sellers need to weigh how much they’re going to net with a tech company’s offer.

4) The narrative of convenience: Big brands are trying to capture consumers with the idea of making transactions easier. This sounds amazing and consumers certainly want convenience, but in my mind the bigger issue is money. Sellers want the highest price possible and buyers want to pay the least amount possible. I wonder at times if this idea is getting lost in the midst of clever marketing. Or are we as a society starting to value convenience more than anything? To be fair there is a segment of the market that will sacrifice profit for the sake of convenience. How much of the population will do this? We’ll see. The market gets to decide.

5) Models change: We no longer go to Blockbuster to rent videos, we use Google Maps instead of the Thomas Guide, and when booking a vacation most of us don’t use a travel agent. Thus when it comes to real estate, let’s expect to see change in the future. I’m not saying tech companies are going to take over and humans will lose to Skynet (a Terminator reference). But for anyone working in real estate, it’s a good idea to watch this trend, listen closely to the narrative being spun, show your value to consumers, and try to think ahead of the trend so you can position yourself for the future.

Anyway, that’s what’s on my mind. I hope that was helpful or interesting.

Bubble story on CBS: Yesterday I was interviewed for a piece on CBS Sacramento about Sacramento home prices being similar to the peak in 2005. Check it out if you wish. One quick note. The reporter said, “Have no fear” in the story. I wanted to clarify that those were not my words.

Questions: Which point resonates with you most? What did I miss? What are you most and least excited about with tech companies in real estate?

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How do you know how much the market has gone up?

July 24, 2019 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

I’ve been getting this question quite a bit lately. How much has the market gone up? How do you figure that out exactly? This is something we consider all the time when pulling comps, which is why it’s so important. Let’s talk about it.

NOTE: This post is longer because there’s lots to say. You can still skim the bold headings though if you wish.

Here are a few simple things I do to gauge value changes:

1) Look for comps: The best thing we can do is look to the comps for the answers. More specifically, look for the price difference between sales in the past compared with properties that are currently getting into contract.

To gauge a change in value I recommend comparing similar properties from the past to similar properties now. This is often done with sales from last year vs this year, but here’s an example of several years ago with this year. If you’re in a tract neighborhood you might consider comparing a few different similar-sized models from the past with those same models today. If you’re not in a tract area, just compare competitive sales from the past with competitive sales today.

In this example above I looked up a 2,734 sq ft model in South Sacramento and in 2015 this model was selling for about $330,000 while today the most recent sales have been $400,000 (backs highway) and $412,000. There is a pending at $419,126. Ultimately we could say the market has gone up by $80,000 to $90,000 or about 24% to 27%. It might seem odd that I’m looking up 2015 sales, but in this case the subject property sold in 2015, so I was attempting to figure out how much the market changed since then.

When lining up all data from 2018 through 2019 it’s really clear we’ve seen price increases, right?

2) Sales last year & this year: We can also try to find some sales that sold last year and then re-sold this year. I realize if we’re lucky we might find only one or two examples at best. I’m not talking about flips where remodeling has occurred, but an example like the one below where it sold in the exact same condition.

In this example we see the market has shown about a 2% uptick in value over the past year. Of course we have to understand whether these sales sold at reasonable levels. After all, if either sold too high or too low, then it’s probably meaningless data. Ultimately sales like this can be clues into the market (more on this below too).

3) Stats programs: Some people might use fancy excel spreadsheet programs where competitive neighborhood data can be exported to show price changes over time. I don’t personally use something like this, but it’s not a bad idea if it helps you get a good picture of a neighborhood market. If you use something like this, please comment below.

4) Create visuals: I’m a visual guy and it helps me see the market by creating visuals. I find myself spending a good chunk of time on #1 and #2 above as I’m pulling comps, but I also use this step to compliment those steps. If you want to learn to make graphs, here’s a tutorial. If you’ve been thinking about this, why not go for it? Creating images has been revolutionary for the way I see the market and explain it.

CLOSING TIPS:

1) Be careful about zip code data: If you’re pulling data from a zip code or county, just remember trends shown in a larger area may or may not apply equally to every neighborhood or price range (or property type). This is why I don’t look at my recent big market update, see price metrics are up 3-4% this year in the region, and then use that number for every neighborhood. Nope. I advise knowing the larger trend very well, but don’t impose that trend on a smaller area without doing research.

2) Not just one example: It’s dangerous to base a value conclusion on only one example. This is why I wouldn’t look at my example in number two above and definitely state the market has increased by 2%. One example is best considered a piece of the puzzle, and it’s important to find other pieces before understanding the puzzle.

3) The stock market & competitive data: In the stock market you can have different stocks going up, down, and sideways all at once. The same thing happens in real estate. This is exactly why I strongly recommend you look at competitive data in neighborhoods. For example, if you are valuing a 1,200 sq ft house, make sure you are looking at examples of similar-sized homes to understand that market segment instead of 4,000 sq ft homes in the same neighborhood. Otherwise if I only look at larger homes that might be a little more stagnant, I could miss the fact that the bottom of the market is increasing much more rapidly than the top end.

4) Declining market: It’s been years since we’ve had a declining market, but this same methodology above can help you measure the market when prices are declining too.

5) Seasons: When looking at older sales let’s remember the seasons in which they sold. Thus last year I might give a 2% adjustment in a neighborhood for a property that sold in June, but I could give a 5% adjustment for something that closed in December because it sold when the market was down further during a dull fall season.

6) Being quick & reconciliation: There’s not just one way to do this, and there aren’t quick answers. We have to dig in. Most of all, we might choose a few different ways to study the market and then reconcile our findings. What I mean is I might do all of the steps above, get slightly different answers for each step, and then piece them all together (reconcile them) when I use a comp in a report and make a specific adjustment to that comp. In other words, if I adjust a comp up by 2% or 4% or whatever the number is, I’m coming to the table with some sort of rationale or support for why that adjustment makes sense.

I hope this was helpful.

MARKET UPDATE VIDEO: Here’s a video to walk through the growing and slowing market in Sacramento. Enjoy if you wish.

Questions: What do you think of the steps above? Anything else you’d add? What do you do?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Ryan Lundquist

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