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A hair stylist says we’re not in a bubble…

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Everywhere I go people are talking about housing. So it wasn’t a surprise to have a market conversation with a hair stylist while flying to Texas last week. We talked about real estate bubbles and mullets. Anyway, here’s a few quick takeaways and some thoughts after attending an amazing conference called AppraiserFest. 

Of course I shared this conversation on Twitter:

TAKEAWAYS:

1) Opinions: Everyone has an opinion about what the market is doing or will do in the future. These days when I meet people I tend to ask them what they think is happening, and I’m always grateful and fascinated to hear responses. The truth is I like to hear opinions, but the bigger issue is an opinion without influence from local data isn’t that meaningful, whether it’s from a hair stylist, economist, or real estate professional.

2) Local data: The only thing that really matters right now is local data. What do the stats say the market is doing? What is the word on the street? What are we hearing from sellers and buyers? What is normal and not normal for a slower fall season? More than ever we need to pay attention and sometimes sift through the hype of doom & gloom real estate headlines too. This market presents us an opportunity to be objective, honest about not knowing the future exactly, and creative to find ways to describe what the market is doing. On a side note I’ll have my big monthly market update posted next week.

3) Mullets: Speaking of mullets, six years ago I helped coin the term “parcel mullet” to explain the phenomenon of having a short lawn in the front and a long lawn in the back. Either you think that’s hilarious or now you know I’m immature.

REAL ESTATE “ISLANDS”

I just got back from a conference called AppraiserFest. It was incredible to hang with nearly 300 other appraisers for a few days in San Antonio. I was honored to speak too. Anyway, here’s a couple of things on my mind that I wanted to share as an encouragement to real estate professionals.

1) Islands: It’s easy in real estate to go about things alone or be an “island” so to speak. But growing professionally and learning often involves intentionally being around people who will help us grow. I know this seems basic, but often appraisers are solo artists and completely isolated. That’s not a good thing, and it’s one reason why it was so powerful to see appraisers come together.

2) Finding people: With so much talk about the market changing, it’s critical to be surrounded by people who are accurately interpreting the market and helping us think through issues. My encouragement is to find others to help you think out of the box when it comes to real estate trends (and being successful in any market). I realize that’s a bit vague, but it’s something that needs to happen. As a side note I read Jonathan Miller’s Housing Notes every Friday without fail, and that’s one practical thing I do to help keep my mind sharp. For me Jonathan is one of those people who speaks into my life from afar and I’m better for it. That’s one reason why it was a real pleasure to meet him in person this past week.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Market update video: Here’s a video I did with Realtor Doug Reynolds a couple weeks ago to talk through the fall market. Check it out if you’d like. If you want to do something like this too, let me know.

NOTE about this video: Someone asked me how much I charge to share a video with an agent like the one above. In short, I will NEVER do that. I shared this because I was in the video and the content is worth digesting. I did this video for free with Doug and that’s what I do with everyone. I have a couple more video shoots on the docket and I may share those eventually too, but only if they actually fit with what I’m saying. If a video doesn’t add value or fit within what I’m trying to say, then it won’t get shared. Make sense? Hopefully so.

Questions: In what places are you having real estate conversations lately? What voices are you listening to right now that are helping you grow and think through the market?

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Would you be ready if the market did change?

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There’s so much talk about the market changing. It’s honestly hard to escape, right? But what if the market really did shift directions? Would you be ready for it? Today I want to share some things on my mind. This might seem off-topic, but hey, I’m a guy in business thinking through stuff like this.

The big mistake many companies make is the market changes, but they don’t evolve to be relevant for the future. This is why Sears filed for bankruptcy this week since they became a place consumers just didn’t want to shop beyond maybe appliances or tools. Likewise, Blockbuster video chose to focus their business around the idea that consumers would keep wanting to rent DVDs from a physical location instead of streaming online. In other words, Blockbuster held on to a business plan that worked well for the past instead of the future.

As I pay close attention to real estate trends, I find myself asking these questions. In fact, I’ve been asking them for years to stay on top of the market and hopefully keep my doors open.

QUESTIONS TO ASK:
Who are my clients going to be over the next few years?
What are my clients going to need from me?
What skills do I need to add to be ready for the future?
Who is coming to the market?
Who is leaving the market?
Who is going to be participating in the future market?
What steps do I need to take to position myself for the future?
Where can I meet future clients?

By the way, I’m not writing this post to say the market is collapsing, but only because with so much talk about change it would be unwise to not consider this.

ACTION STEP: Don’t wait for the future to come before asking the important questions. Remember, you can be successful in any market, but you have to try to think ahead of trends and be intentional about preparing for the future.

I hope this was helpful. Back to appraisal stuff next week.

Speaking Gigs: I’ll actually be talking about some of this stuff at AI’s 2018 Fall Conference in San Francisco & AppraiserFest in San Antonio.

Questions: What did you like most about Sears or Blockbuster? Any other questions to add to my list? I’d love to hear your take.

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Loud tile, fake trends, & staying grounded

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I’ve been seeing lots of vibrant tile like this lately. Have you? Do you like it or not? Let me know, and let’s also talk about fake trends and market hype.

Strong opinions: Last week when sharing a picture of this tile on social media, I heard some strong opinions ranging from, “Dude, that is the coolest thing ever” to “Wow, that is just plain ugly.” Some said it was really stylish, but they were concerned it wouldn’t age well. Another person remarked it was like a pattern from the 70s all over again (without the green). Haha.

The reality is vibrant tile has been showing up for the past couple years. Here’s some examples in higher-end flips by Olivia Barrett.

On Twitter @Nashramento shared an image of tile in her Family Room. She said the tile would’ve been too busy for the floor, but not on the wall.

Big point: There’s a variety of opinions on loud tile, but here’s the truth. The market doesn’t care what I think about this tile, and if you’re not a buyer it doesn’t care if you like it either. This doesn’t mean we don’t get to have opinions, but from a real estate sales perspective the ONLY thing that is relevant is whether buyers right now prefer the tile or not.

Moving beyond tile: We have some pretty big headlines right now, and just like the tile above, there are lots of opinions about what the market is doing.

FAKE TRENDS: Quick, here’s some fake trends with legit-looking graphs.

Okay, you either loved the fake trends or you think I’m ridiculous. For me they’re great for conversation – especially in the midst of so many market opinions.

TIPS FOR STAYING GROUNDED IN THIS SLOWING MARKET:

1) Read the article: Some people are only reading headlines instead of the article. Right or wrong, that’s how it is. This becomes a problem if actual stats aren’t as sensational as the headline.

2) Interpret the article: Here’s the question. Is the claim in the headline supported by data? I like hearing opinions, but it doesn’t matter if someone feels like the market is doing something. What do the numbers say? Keep in mind national data could show a different trend than local data too.

3) Listen to many voices: It’s good to get a wide variety of thoughts about the market from more than just one person or data source.

4) Be in touch with what a seasonal slowing looks like: Sorry to beat the dead horse on this point, but we need to be in tune with what normally happens in a slower seasonal market to help us understand trends and spot anything abnormal. My advice? At the beginning of each month ask yourself what is normal. What regularly happens in the given month to prices, sales volume, inventory, days on market, the number of listings, etc…? By the way, here’s my normal vs tanking video if you missed it.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Appraiserfest: One last note, I’m going to San Antonio, Texas for Appraiserfest on November 1-3, and I’d love to see you there. I’m very excited to meet people I’ve been talking to online for years, and I’m pumped to get to speak also. My topic is on becoming an expert in your market. I get 90 minutes on stage, but I hope to have lots of time over a few days to sit down to share ideas too. 

Questions: What do you think of the tile? Any tips for staying ground in this market in the midst of so much hype? I’d love to hear your take.

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The emerging trend of storage container homes (Q&A)

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Storage container units are all the rage on HGTV, but they’re starting to pop up in real life too. So let’s talk about them. Today I have an interview with James Roberts who handles design and engineering at TAYNR, a container home builder in Sacramento. I hope this will be insightful and interesting. Anything to add? Let’s talk in the comments.

Ryan: What got you into the storage container business?

James: I first became aware of “shipping containers” when I was a Signalman in the US NAVY. Seeing them in different commercial ports was common. After the NAVY I moved to Miami Beach where I met Sujan (Project Manager at TAYNR), and we would see shipping containers on large cargo ships, cruising in and out of the Miami Port all the time. But Denmark was the first container build I ever saw. And then London had container condos and a shopping center. Thailand, Laos, Korea Japan, Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil all have many small pop-up businesses, single family homes and commercial buildings. During recent visits to China and Hong Kong, I saw new construction sites with 100s of containers modified for worker housing.

Ryan: What type of buildings can you make out of containers?

James: The possibilities are endless. The ISBU (Intermodal Steel Building Unit), the shipping container, is manufactured to carry heavy cargo of all kinds, to be stacked, and withstand extreme weather conditions while being transported across the seas. With that said, they are incredibly strong, and if modified correctly, they can be used for an endless amount of structures. Australia has been using containers for housing and commercial structures for 40+ years. America has recently (+/-10 years) started to use this building method for single family and multi-family homes, commercial store fronts, popup food stations, business marketing structures, etc. The worker housing units would be an excellent source for all means for temporary housing in the US. Emergency, migrant, farm, homeless, camping, etc. The list can go on.

Ryan: What is the maximum number on stories you can do?

James: They are manufactured to stack on top with the weight bearing on the four corner posts. It is common to see them free-standing 6 boxes high at the port. This is without reinforcement or anything securing them together. You can imagine that with additional engineering and structural support, this could easily be doubled, possibly tripled.

Ryan: Tell me about the accessory unit you built in Oak Park (the blue unit below).

James: Matt and Jamie Leonardo contacted me in late 2016. They bought their Oak Park home a few years before and had worked up some equity. Originally there was a non-permitted home along the back alley way that had to be torn down in order for their loan to be approved. Replacing this structure for a revenue generating dwelling was pretty much in the plan from the beginning. I do not remember where/why they decided to build with a shipping container, but we met, discussed a plan and moved forward. This home will actually be showcased on an upcoming episode of You Live In What, premiering June 29th at 9 pm on Great American Country Network (GAC), an HGTV affiliate.

Ryan: Do units get extra hot on the inside because of the steel exterior?

James: No, our units are meant to perform extremely efficient by design. By nature, corten steel will absorb the heat from the sun. This is a factor that is taken into consideration from the beginning and we have many different ways to address this. For instance, the Oak Park container home is insulated on the inside and has reflective paint on the outside. Also, a weather barrier and facade were installed on the exterior of the container to allow for a 6?+ thermal break. The roof has a 3:12 sloped standing seam roof with 3’6? eves to provide additional shade along with the insulation and weather barrier laid out inside the roofline, and it has 2 mini-split for heating and air.

Ryan: What type of units do you find most clients are asking for these days?

James: Our highest demand for individuals is an ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit) that can be installed in existing backyards for in-law quarters, guest homes, or as a rental unit to capture additional income. The TAYNR models are designed to be “building blocks” offering both 20′ and 40′ multi-block models. 1, 2 & 3 bedroom units with 1 or 2 baths.

Ryan: How long does it take to install an ADU?

James: Foundations can be installed in 1 day, and installation of the ADU is typically 5-10 business days depending in the model size.

Ryan: Is it fairly easy to get a storage container unit permitted?

James: “Easy” is absolutely not how would describe it. However, because we have our pre-designed models and engineering understood, this does simplify our process.

Ryan: Do you know if there is a limit to how many units can be added in a backyard?

James: Any residential lot in California can have one ADU as long as the property setbacks and design review conditions can be met. So far the only issue I have run into is physical access, which TAYNR now offers an alternative modular product that can usually meet this conflict.

Ryan: Have you found some areas not willing to allow containers because of design restrictions?

James: Usually this is due to the City/County design review. Some areas require the ADU be cohesive with the existing structure. As long as budget allows, this is not an issue because we can design a facade to satisfy this point.

Ryan: So far I’m not aware of any stand-alone single family container units in Sacramento. Have you heard about any yet?

James: There currently is not a stand-alone unit in Sacramento. Stay tuned… we have one in the works.

Ryan: What are the costs like for a storage container accessory unit?

James: Models and pricing are listed on our website (here).

Ryan: Are permit fees any different for containers compared to stick-built homes?

James: No, they are not. Our builds are required to meet the same building codes and are permitted the same as a traditional build.

Ryan: Anything else you want to add?

James: One of the biggest misconceptions is that building with containers is “cheap”. This is not the case. Although there are absolute savings if the build process is followed properly. Meaning, the onsite work should be performed while the ADU is being built in the factory, so the overall start-to-finish construction is significantly reduced, saving you a lot in labor cost. 

Ryan: Thanks for doing the interview. You killed it. Everyone, please check out TAYNR’s website. All photos in this post are TAYNR projects (images are property of TAYNR).

CLOSING APPRAISAL THOUGHTS: Container homes are an emerging trend in the market, so it’s important to stay in tune with this phenomenon. I’m excited to hear TAYNR is building a stand-alone home too because that’s not something the market has seen yet. It’s worth noting one of the struggles with stand-alone container homes is the potential of financing hurdles: 1) The unit might not be large enough in size in the eyes of the lender; and 2) A lender might ask an appraiser to use container comps to show the market accepts this type of property. Well, right now there aren’t any comps (yet). But the market is craving alternative products like this, so lenders over time will hopefully adapt to this emerging trend.

Questions: What do you think of container homes? Any insight or stories to share? Loan officers, any tips on financing? I’d love to hear your take.

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