Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, and mortgage rates. So much drama this week. Let’s talk about it. Today I have some thoughts about believing the Fed, Chuck Norris, and building a bigger network. This post is all over the place, but hopefully something resonates.
UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
9/28/23 Yuba City Big Market Update (in Yuba City (register here))
10/4/23 KW Sac Metro Big Market Update (register here)
10/6/23 How to Think Like an Appraiser at SAR (register here)
10/27/23 AI Fall Conference (San Francisco) (register here)
11/30/23 Safe CU “Preparing for a Successful New Year”
BELIEVE THE FED ABOUT HIGHER FOR LONGER
This isn’t my meme, but I think it’s perfect when talking about the Fed Funds rate (I don’t remember where I saved it from). Look, nobody knows what will happen with rates exactly, but the Fed has been saying higher for longer, so I recommend believing the Fed. My advice? If you work in real estate, plan on low volume, low supply, and higher rates unless something changes the trajectory of the trend. I like the idea of being realistic by planning for the worst and rejoicing if something else happens. The MBA has an optimistic outlook that the 30-year fixed rate will be 6.3% in Q4 2023, and that’s the rosiest projection I’ve seen. Look, I don’t predict rates because almost nobody gets it right, but like body weight, it’s been much easier to go up instead of down, so I’m not quick to embrace this projection. Time will tell.
THE MARKET WILL FIGURE IT OUT
No matter what rates do in coming months, the truth is the market will figure it out. That’s what markets do. Sellers, if buyers continue to lose purchasing power though, it’s time to be quick to listen and adjust accordingly. Purchase applications have been at 1995 levels lately. If you don’t remember 1995, that’s when movies like Toy Story, Braveheart, Billy Madison, and Clueless were out. Sellers, there is a smaller pool of buyers out there, lower the price if you’re not getting offers, and be open to giving buyers concessions if needed. And remember, Chuck Norris eats 8% rates for breakfast, but ordinary buyers aren’t Chuck Norris.
Okay, a few other things on my mind.
IT’S EASY BEING AN EXPERT DURING GOOD TIMES
I’ve been thinking about expertise quite a bit lately. When a market is good, it’s easy to feel like an expert, but real expertise shows up most when things aren’t so good. Know what I’m saying?
STAYING AFLOAT
Scroll to the bottom for some thoughts on building a bigger network and staying afloat in today’s market.
MOVING FAST IF PRICED RIGHT
With so much talk about the housing market slowing, I think it’s important to recognize things have still been moving historically fast in Sacramento at least. It’s just not a 2021 speed. Keep in mind if rates start to spike, we could see a sharp change in days on market and lots of metrics. Remember, we see change first in active listings, mortgage applications, and the sentiment in the trenches of real estate. If we wait for closed sales before spotting a trend, we’re going to be way behind the market.
ALL SHIPS RISE AND FALL WITH THE TIDE
HOLY BATMAN, LOOK AT SAN FRANCISCO
I made this visual a few days back, and it’s stunning to see how close the price trend in San Francisco used to be to California in the early 1990s, but then it pulled so far away. This just goes to show that some areas don’t have the same exact trend (even though all ships tend to rise and fall with the tide).
And some local counties with California.
Okay, other stuff on my mind.
GROW YOUR NETWORK TO STAY AFLOAT
In my talks lately I’m sharing stats of course, but I’m also talking about the importance of increasing the size of your network. This is something I work hard at personally, and every day I push out perspective on purpose in order to be a resource and build relationships with people. Anyway, in light of volume contracting so heavily this past year, it’s vital to cultivate a bigger network to sustain business since we’re in a market with less movement.
Some questions to brainstorm:
– How do you plan to increase the size of your network this year?
– Who do you need to get to know?
– Who are the gatekeepers to the types of work you want to do?
– Who do you need to get in front of this week?
– How do you need to diversify?
– What do people need from you right now?
– How are you going to build good relationships and show up for people in today’s market?
APPRAISER COLLEAGUES
I know it’s been tough on many appraisers lately, and there is no sugarcoating that. I only do private work, so if you ever have questions, please reach out. Earlier this year, I did a free webinar thingy on Zoom to talk about private work, and I’d be open to that again if there is demand. I just can’t pull that off this month, but November could work. I’m starting to get the itch to bring some colleagues together, so let me know if you’d be interested.
Thanks for being here. I hope this was helpful.
Questions: What do you think of Taylor and Travis? Or what about anything I talked about in the post? I’d love to hear your take.
If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.
Hey Ryan,
I’ve pulled aggregate data for Yuba MSA before and was surprised at how well it tracked Sacramento. San Francisco is something else though. Good advice about networking that we can all use.
Right on Joe. Yeah, it’s been so many years since I’ve done something in either county, so I’m excited to put some stuff together. My presentation will feature quite a bit of Sacramento stuff because of the similarity too. Hope you’re well. Hope to hang sometime soon.
Great job Ryan. I was thinking of hiring in anticipation of next year and now I’m back on the fence. LOL.
Oh man, it’s a wild ride Gary. Higher rates aren’t going to help volume. That’s for sure.
I see that almost every market follows your trend lines except major metro coastals or extreme metro areas. But for the 90% of America, those trend lines on a macro scale work on everything from Billings to Buloxi.
And im on your email list for blog posts but i missed your email/list? for the free webinar.
Thanks. And you know, this is why I like to hear what other people say about their markets because sometimes I can pick up things I might need to watch here. It’s amazing how similar certain markets are. I don’t have a separate email list. I probably didn’t announce it much on my blog. If this is something that happens, I’ll put a link to it in my speaking events until it happens.
Great info! I LOVE the graphs and you can see how the different markets are following the same trends. I also appreciate the insight on building our networks. I truly think this is going to be key on whether you stay in the business or not. Do you have a Chuck Norris meme on building your network? Would love to see that! lol
Awesome. Thanks so much Diana. I find myself wanting to talk a bit more about business here and there and the power of networking and mindset for this market. That’s a good idea. I should make one. I did have a couple other memes on rates that I didn’t share today. I thought they might be too edgy. Haha. I might include them in a presentation today though to see if they resonate or not. 🙂
Thanks Ryan! I love what you provide. The date labels on the horizontal axis of the Ca/SF median price table are all in the 1900-1901 range.
Thanks Peter. I really appreciate the heads-up. I know how the mistake happened, and I corrected it. Appreciate it. New image has been uploaded.
Love the headline! Got my attention and a huge laugh ?
Haha. Right on. Thanks Yolanda. I thought it was funny, and I hope it resonates with others.
Always enjoy reading your content. I appreciate the blog that you provide. I would be interested in the webinar if you were to do one in November. Thanks!
Thanks Benjamin. I appreciate you reading. As long as there is critical mass, I’m game to do this. I’ll hope to hear from others also, and I may post on a Facebook group to see if there is interest there too.
I’d love to do a private work class with you Ryan! Keep me in the loop!
Cool. Thanks Dana. And if this happens, it’s going to be free. I’d like to present some content and then just do Q&A.
Love your graphics..and holy cow….San Francisco is crazy!!! It’s one of those things that is much more impressive on a graph than just talking about it.
Thanks Paula. I know. I was blown away when seeing the graph. It just goes to show why Bay Area migration makes sense. While the trend has cooled in recent time, I get it. Of course, not everyone from the Bay Area moves to Sacramento with fat stacks of cash and equity.
Hi Ryan
Many years ago I did a presentation about none-lender work, emphasizing marriage dissolution assignments. I think i still have the notes – Interested in discussing and maybe joint venturing something?
I’ll be at Fall Conference if you want to say hello.
Hi Alison. That’s so nice of you to offer. Let me think about what I want this to be. I’ll really consider that. Let’s definitely connect at the conference.
Hey Ryan, Thanks for the blog and the way you represent us appraisers. I would enjoy the private work conversations as well as the business and mindset conversations you mentioned. Additionally, you have done a few classes on graphing and data sets in the past. Would you ever revive one of those as well? Thanks again!
Hey David. Good to hear from you. And right on. It’s starting to sound like this might be useful. I haven’t really taught a class on graphing, but I do have some tutorials on graphing at this link. I’m always open to answering any questions. In truth, I know how to make some pretty graphs, but Joe on this thread is the real graph wizard. https://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/graphs/
Great post, Ryan. I like your suggestions about growing your network. Since we really do not have any influence on what happens with rates we can at least work on something we do have control over and that is OUR actions and how we handle what we do. I don’t think that appraisers or agents can go wrong by being a valuable resource to others which in turn can help to get referrals and grow business. It brings to mind the time we studied “Trust Agents” together. That was some good times and a lot was learned about how to grow a network. Keep up the great work, you are a valuable resource to people in your area and readers of your blog.
Thank you Tom. That is such a blast from the past. That book was definitely formative. I don’t even remember when we read that. 2009 or 2010 maybe? It’s all about being a resource. Social platforms come and go, but being a resource does not go out of style. Thank you for the kind words. I’m glad we’re in this thing together. I’ve yet to read your blog post this week. Looking forward to it.
I’d be interested in a zoom talking about private work if you decide to do it. I do a mix of both lender & private work, though of course a much higher percentage is non-lender right now. I do enjoy the flexibility of tailoring the product to what the client needs.
Right on. Thanks Alanya. And congrats on being diversified already to an extent. That’s great!!