It’s a Back to the Future housing market right now. You remember the iconic movie, right? Well, sellers are stuck in the past and buyers are living in the future. Let’s talk about it. Skim by topic or digest slowly.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting PCAR
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
STUCK ANYWHERE BUT THE PRESENT
Don’t be Doc or Marty. Try to be present for today’s market. Too many sellers are stuck in the past thinking it’s still 2021, and I find buyers are stuck in the future expecting 2007 vibes. My advice? Be realistic about current market conditions. For sellers, let news of declining price metrics in some areas be motivational to get the price right, offer concessions, and get ahead of your competition. And for buyers, be patient for the right house and realistic about how much power you have.
THE SPRING MARKET PEAKED EARLY THIS YEAR
It’s still slightly early to share stats from May, but preliminary stats show two things: 1) Spring peaked early this year; and 2) It looks like we’re going to have some negative year-over-year price change in Sacramento. Prices are only preliminary, so I’ll report final numbers next week, but this is what we’ve been expecting. Keep in mind that Zillow’s home price index went negative for Sacramento in April (so did Homes.com). I’ll have a ton of stats and perspective next week on how the market showed a big change in the stats in May with so many metrics.
BUYERS ARE NOT LIKING UNCERTAINTY
We saw a real change in buyer demand starting in April (blue line). I don’t care if you’re red or blue, and this is not a partisan statement, but let’s not ignore that increasing economic uncertainty looks to be taking a toll on buyers.
SELLERS STEPPED BACK LAST MONTH TOO
While everyone is focused on weaker buyer demand, let’s talk about sellers too. New listings didn’t grow as much in May as they did in previous months. I’m not saying there is a trend here because we need more than one month of data, but my antennas are up. Is it possible some sellers could pull back in light of uncertainty too? Maybe. Only time will tell. If this does become a thing, it could help the pile of active listings not grow as quickly.
INVENTORY EXPLAINED WITH SKATEBOARD WHEELS
Here’s a reel I pushed out yesterday to explain the real estate market with skateboard wheels. I think this is a cool way to describe why active listings have been able to increase so much. And this goes along perfectly with what I’m saying. Let’s watch buyer AND seller behavior closely right now.
THE DOOM PERSPECTIVE IS FAR INTO THE FUTURE
I’ll admit I get bored with the housing doom perspective because it’s a one-trick pony with a singular sermon of fear. Death and destruction are coming. Yawn. Anyway, right now I find the doom narrative is gloating in victory and way ahead of the trend into the future. Prices are not crashing right now, and it’s not 2007 in the stats. Has the market changed? Yep. Let’s just be real about the numbers and keep things in context. It’s also important to have enough humility to know that nobody can perfectly predict the future.
DON’T BUILD A NARRATIVE ON ONE MONTH OF DATA
Some people might end up looking a bit silly. The truth is you don’t want to get one negative reading and then declare a new era is here. The funny part about stats is sometimes they bounce up and down. I saw one person in a different market talking about declines last month, but then the median price bounced back up this month. My advice? Talk about the numbers, but be careful of embracing a rigid narrative that doesn’t allow space for stats to bounce around (this is especially true of data in smaller counties).
PICKING AND CHOOSING THE HOTTEST STATS
Some people in real estate are cherry-picking stats right now. What I mean is if the median sales price is down, but the average sales price is up, then it’s all about gravitating toward whatever stat is up. My advice? Tell the story of the market without sugarcoating, and be careful about embracing a rosy seller-oriented narrative in a market where buyers are gaining power. Do you know what buyers and sellers need to understand? That prices have flattened and we have some budding downward price pressure.
COMPETITION ISN’T AT ZERO
There’s a disconnect right now with the housing narrative online and the actual market. In recent months, I’ve had some buyers even express frustration to me when talking about a flattening market with changing demand. “Bro, it’s really competitive when I’m trying to buy a house.” I pushed out some stats a few days ago to help talk about this. Here’s what the number of offers looks like by price point for May closed sales. Do you see how there is more competition at lower prices? Keep in mind this only represents sales. There are many listings with zero offers. Also, there is strong competition for properties that check all the boxes for price, condition, upgrades, and location. There is NOT strong competition for overpriced homes.
BE A PART OF THE MARKET THAT IS HERE
For my real estate friends, it’s all about connecting with people who have incentive to participate in the market. We’ve had $7.5 billion in price volume this year to date with nearly 12,000 closed sales in the wider region. Who is buying? Who is selling? Who is investing? Find those people.
CLOSING ADVICE FOR REAL ESTATE FRIENDS
Stay grounded. Be careful of sensationalism. Cultivate objectivity. Don’t treat high prices as sacred because they are not. Be in touch with buyers who want lower prices. Keep changing what you say about the market as the stats change. Expect more hesitancy from buyers and maybe even sellers as we start talking more about negative price stats. Try to get sellers ahead of their competition right now since there has been a sharper downward change in buyer demand. Run toward the challenge of the market, and keep finding ways to increase the size of your network. Stop doomscrolling. Find ways to unplug. Take care of your mental health (nobody else can do that for you).
Thanks for being here.
LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.
Questions: Are you seeing the Back to the Future dynamic? What stands out to you about today’s market? I’d love to hear your take on things.
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Did someone want to write off some skateboard wheels as a business expense? LOL
Is this the first time you’ve used Back to the Future in a post? It seems very on brand for you….
Haha. You know, I have a ton of wheels for some reason. I don’t know why I have this many, but I think I just bought a bunch when building longboards. Or maybe I had some boards that I took apart that I built. I don’t even remember.
I think I might have used it before, but it is very on-brand. You called it. 🙂
Great Scott! That’s heavy.
Hey McLundquist! Your house has been on the market for 90 days. Maybe that price isn’t going to bring you back to the future, just back to reality.
Oh, Gary. This is too good. I can always count on you for some humor, and I appreciate it so much.
Is there a way for you to share your reel (skateboard wheels explaining the market” with me so I can share it on my social media?…giving you the credit of course! I just think it’s just such a great visual….!
Hi Janet. I shared it on my Facebook page, LinkedIn, Twitter (X), and Instagram. I suspect you can probably share it from those places to your own page or wherever. A share on Facebook is probably easy to do if that’s what you are looking for. Let me know if you have any questions. Here are some links:
Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1486767589368204
Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DKfA9-oxOGD/
Can I use your Back to the Future reference in my next classroom I work. McFly it was Brilliant. As to doom and gloom here is some interesting facts, well at least to me.
SFR in my area Temecula Valley, 1985-1990
Mean pricing range between $95k- $135k
2023-2024
$700k-$850k
Increase over 600%
Doom and gloom take that.
Recovery time 11-12 years from peak to trough to peak again. The folks on a 4 hour tour of Temecula Wine Country will get some other fun facts about the growth of SW Riverside county and growth of land pricing as well as our history.
Hey Brad, sure. Use it as you see fit. I think it’s a good way to describe the market right now. I’m always trying to figure out a new way to describe the trend, and I’ll use this until it gets stale (and probably a little beyond stale too). 🙂
Thanks for the stats. I’m eager to see how this market unfolds ahead. The housing market still feels very broken as we still have abnormally low supply. Even when we get back to a technically “normal” level like we had in a year like 2019, it will still be deemed historically low in light of sellers sitting back over the past few years.
Any thoughts/insights about sellers/buyers trying to sell/buy homes where CalFair is the only insurance option?
Hi Ken. You know, I think it’s a mixed bag. I just pulled some stats for a presentation today where Fair Plan is the only insurance option, and volume hasn’t fallen off a cliff in Placer County at least. I find most buyers are well-educated about the cost, so they know when they begin shopping. I’m not minimizing the impact though. This is a really big deal. I just haven’t seen a mass-exodus of buyers in these areas yet. There are certainly some people looking on who say they will never buy in a Fair Plan area though, so on that note, I think we have to recognize there is a more limited pool of buyers. Yet, would these people really have been buyers anyway?
I will say last time I pulled El Dorado stats in outlying areas at the beginning of the year, it did look like weakening volume was in play though. There is an inflection point out there for both owners as well as buyers. Insurance is a very big deal in today’s market, and there are people making real estate decisions because of it. I just haven’t seen a massive change yet either. Both things are true. It seems like the market is figuring out it for now despite the pain. I may do some more exhaustive analysis ahead though, and I’m glad to change my narrative if the stats show differently.
Any thoughts?
I am not seeing doom and gloom, but I certainly have noticed a change in the market. Houses that have been updated in the past few years to today’s style sell quickly and for a premium. Houses that are dated and or heavily ‘used’ are really struggling and need to be priced to reflect today’s costs of upgrading. In 2019 I could remodel a kitchen and both baths, new flooring, paint and lighting for less than $35,000. I’ve done three this year, all cost $50,000+, so the pricing difference needs to reflect the increased costs of updating. All three homes sold quickly and for a premium, while original condition homes were selling for $50-$75,000 less.
Thanks George. Yeah, I think there is a disconnect in the market right now compared to much of the narrative. This is where we have to cultivate objectivity. My sense is many housing doomers are talking like the game is over when it’s the 4th inning (or whatever inning we may choose). Statistically, so many of the stats have been hovering around the pre-2020 norm for the past couple of years, but we are just starting to see them break away too, and there is no mistaking prices changing. I’ll share more about that next week. I have some graphs that really drive a break home though in terms of days on market, supply increases, and properties selling above and below the original price. Everything is so expensive today, and that’s tough. I think consumers are feeling it, and uncertainty over the past few months hasn’t helped at all. The market may or may not be able to absorb the cost of remodeling. I think a similar thing is true with builders. While they say tariffs have maybe raised their costs by 1%, I’m doubtful they can pass that off to consumers at the moment. But backing up, like you said, consumers are eating up those remodeled homes. Being in good condition with upgrades is a huge asset right now.
Hi Ryan great article as usual. Do you have a youtube channel? It sure would be nice to have some contexts in the youtube world.
Thanks Tom. I appreciate it. I do technically have a channel, but I don’t really post there. A friend is prodding me to start doing long-form content. I do have the itch a bit, but I’m not sure I’m organized enough to pull it off. Yet, I find myself having too much to share, so maybe I’ll pull the trigger one of these days. https://www.youtube.com/RyanLundquist
Great post, Ryan. With so much uncertainty in the market, this is a great opportunity for appraisers to provide a very valuable service to agents and sellers with a pre-listing appraisal. When you consider the cost of the appraisal compared to what can happen if the house is not priced to the market, it makes a lot of sense. Do you do many pre-listing appraisals?
Thanks Tom. I definitely do these. I think it’s on a case-by-case basis though. Does it make sense for the owner? Can I get it done before they want to list? I find when the market softens, these types of appraisals can increase to help sellers get a does of reality. I also find I get more requests to appraise properties listed as active that aren’t selling.