How do you value a new home in an old neighborhood? Here are six things I keep at the forefront of my mind when approaching this situation and choosing comps. What else would you add? I’d love to hear your take in the comments.
- Premium: There is usually a premium for new construction. Just as buyers pay more for that new car smell, buyers will typically pay more for a home that has never been lived in.
- Fading Premium: However, the premium for new construction fades VERY quickly. This is important to keep in mind because any premium paid when the house was built a few years ago may not exist in today’s resale market.
- Infill Location: If the newer home is part of an infill project, it might have a bad location since the best locations were probably already built out. Moreover, infill projects tend to have tiny lots compared to larger ones found with older properties.
- Quality: Sometimes newer homes may not have the same quality as older homes, which reminds us new is not always more valuable. Other times though new homes are far superior to the surrounding area.
- Conformity: Does the property fit in with the neighborhood in terms of design and size? Or does it stand out in a bad way? The principle of conformity is a very relevant dynamic in real estate, and whether a property fits in the neighborhood or not can impact its value.
- Neighborhood Acceptance: Sometimes neighborhoods go through a period of change where it becomes more acceptable for older homes to be torn down and newer bigger ones rebuilt (East Sacramento). Other times it is not common or acceptable, so a new home might look like a sore thumb.
When valuing a newer home next to older ones, it’s easy to automatically assume it’s worth more. Yet we have to ask, how does the market see this new property? Is the market willing to pay more for this or not? What are buyers looking for in the neighborhood? The proof is in the data, so often times we need to dig deep for comparable sales. It might even be helpful to search through the past several years of sales to find something else that was new. What was comparable to the new property at the time of its sale? Did it sell with any premium? Or did it sell right on par with other older homes? Be careful of course when interpreting new construction comps since sometimes newly constructed homes are loaded with concessions and credits, which can inflate the price.
Questions: What’s number 7? Any other thoughts or insight?
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The market ripened early this year. Buyers have simply been ready before sellers. On one hand listings and sales have been at fairly normal levels for the first two months of the year, so we can say the market is normal in that regard. But buyer demand really took off last month as pendings in the regional market were up by almost 30% compared to last February. This is the part that is not normal, and why we can say the Spring market ripened early.
One Paragraph to Explain the Market: Well-priced listings are going quickly and experiencing multiple offers, but otherwise properties are sitting on the market if they are not priced correctly. Buyers have been anxious to get into contract, but at the same time they seem to be showing discretion by not readily pulling the trigger on homes with adverse locations or issues. This has led to a sense of many current listings feeling like leftovers since they’ve been well vetted like thrift store clothing. The good news is we are reaching the time of year where more listings should be hitting the market to help alleviate the pressure of a lack of good inventory. Lastly, it took a few less days to sell last month, inventory decreased, and the sales to original list price ratio increased (all normal in Spring).
NOTE: I am posting once a week now, and this means my big monthly post will have less text, but a few more graphs (Placer, Sacramento County, & Regional Market).
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SACRAMENTO COUNTY:
PLACER COUNTY:
SACRAMENTO REGION (Sac, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado):
Questions: What is driving buyers to get into contract? Is it low rates? Is it a sense of needing to get in a home before values rise too quickly? What do you think?
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