Sacramento Appraisal Blog

Market trends and real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely.

bifurcated market

Condos are having a moment

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Condos are struggling, and they’re really having a moment in today’s housing market. Let’s talk about what’s going on with volume, supply, and prices. Be sure to read my closing thoughts about housing doom and hot pockets too. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
12/5/24 Made 4 More Team (Exporting Data from MLS)
12/11/24 Gateway: Think Like an Appraiser (private)
12/18/24 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks
1/15/25 Mike & Joel Event (details TBA)
1/16/25 Sac Real Producers event (details TBA)
1/24/25 PCAR Market Update (details TBA)
2/6/25 She Invests event (TBA)
2/11/25 MLS Meeting TBA
2/18/25 Travis Credit Union TBA
3/6/25 Yolo Association YPN Event
3/12/25 Windemere Sierra Oaks
4/8/25 Culbertson and Gray (private I think)
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

1) CONDO VOLUME IS THE LOWEST EVER

Condo volume this year has been the lowest on record over the past few decades in Sacramento County. Detached sales are stronger compared to last year, but that’s not the vibe at all with condos. What’s going on? Well, condos have had issues with rising association insurance costs, increasing HOA fees, trouble obtaining financing from lenders, and maybe even some issues with California’s new balcony law. Look, not every condo subdivision is experiencing all of these issues, but there is no mistaking many condos have legitimate headwinds.

2) CONDO HOUSING SUPPLY HAS SPIKED

Condo supply has seen a sharper spike than the rest of the market, and that’s making a difference with housing temperature in some condo neighborhoods.

And here’s a much wider view from Trendgraphix. Do you see the difference between condos and detached units?

3) PRICES ARE STARTING TO DROP

I’ve been noticing downward price pressure in some condo neighborhoods. This doesn’t mean every location is declining, but it’s been pretty clear in some recent appraisals. Check out the visuals below. What do you see? Keep in mind the decline has not been like a 2007 free fall. My advice? If you’re selling, don’t get stuck on the highest prices from 2022 and 2023. Consider properties that are actually getting into contract. Remember, sales are like historic artifacts since they tell us what the market used to be like when these units got into contract. In contrast, actives and pendings tell us what the market is like right now.

CLOSING THOUGHTS: HOT POCKETS & DOOM

I like to say the housing market is like a hot pocket taken out of the microwave too early. The temperature might not be the same everywhere. Some spots are blazing hot, others are lukewarm, and some are frozen. Well, the condo market has been frigid lately, and it’s something we need to keep watching. With that said, I think the temptation for some is to say condos are the leading indicator of doom for the entire market. I get it, but don’t ignore unique issues going on with condos that are not happening with the detached market (trouble obtaining financing and rising insurance costs for the association). I’m not sugarcoating here. I’m just saying we want to be careful about imposing condo vibes on everything else unless that’s what the stats are showing. For reference, condos have been about 6% of all sales this year in Sacramento County.

I hope this was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What have you been seeing happen with condos? What’s happening with prices? Any insight or stories to share? Did I miss anything?

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A tale of two markets & pivoting when the housing market changes

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Builders are having a moment. New home sales are glowing right now in the midst of depressed volume in the resale market. It’s like there are two different markets happening at the same time. Today I want to share some stats for new construction, but let’s also talk about pivoting.

UPCOMING (PUBLIC) SPEAKING GIGS:
5/22/23 Yolo YPN event (only for YAR members)
5/25/23 TBD
6/1/23 DJ Lenth Event TBA
6/07/23 SAFE Credit Union event for agents (sold out)
6/08/23 Made 4 More event TBA
7/20/23 SAR Market Update (in-person & livestream)

NEW HOMES REBOUND

The past three months have shown a rebound of new home sales in the Sacramento region, and this dynamic is starting to show up in many markets across the country. Anyway, after a sharp downward change in volume for the second half of 2022, this year is starting out strong. It was the second-highest March since 2005 and second-highest April since 2006. These stats ONLY show brand new homes (data from North State BIA).

And here’s a chart to show builder confidence from NAHB. The increase we’ve seen lately shows the market has been improving. Let’s keep watching.

THE REST OF THE MARKET ISN’T GLOWING

Now let’s look at the resale market (older existing homes). The trend is completely different as we’ve basically seen the lowest volume ever. This is a great reminder that the market isn’t the same in every segment. Or a fancier way of saying it is we have a bifurcated market.

Granted, the new home market is so much smaller, but still, it’s a stark contrast to compare new vs existing homes. In recent years we’ve had anywhere from 4,200 to 5,300 annual new home sales in the wider region, but in 2020 and 2021 there were 7,000+ sales. In contrast, the resale market locally tends to have somewhere around 28,000 or so sales in a normal year (not including condos).

BUYERS PUMPED THE BRAKES LAST YEAR

Buyers backed off the new home market last year when mortgage rates changed (see yellow line). For many months in a row contract volume was basically cut in half from the previous year. To be fair, the previous year was a freakishly strong year, but still, the contrast was really sharp. 

THE X-FACTOR

Why are builders rebounding? The x-factor is offering concessions to buyers. Credits for closing costs (or upgrades) and rate buydowns have been a tractor beam for buyers. Also, sellers are NOT coming to the market lately as we’ve seen about 40% fewer new listings in 2023. This helps shift the focus for buyers on where homes are popping up – new construction. 

By the way, would these properties padded with concessions be selling for that amount without the concessions? This is where appraisers are going to have to carefully analyze the market. The truth is concessions can inflate prices, which is something to watch.

THIS ISN’T THE BEST VOLUME EVER

Is new home volume today outpacing what we saw in 2005? Nope. New home construction was expanding rapidly during that time, and we’re not seeing volume on those levels today. And for the record, new home volume is sorely needed right now in light of sellers sitting, but we have a labor shortage, so builders can’t build fast enough to make up for sellers not listing.

IT’S TIME TO PIVOT

Builders are pivoting at the moment. They’ve basically changed their strategy to stay alive. I realize not everyone can do what builders are doing with offering rate buydowns and credits, but shifting strategy is still key in the resale market. If you are a real estate professional, what do you need to do to pivot in the midst of depressed resale volume? What can you do differently today? What segments of the market do you need to start focusing on? How can you increase the size of your network right now? Who do you need to start getting in front of? What relationships do you need to build? What knowledge do you need to gain? Who are the gatekeepers to getting more business? If you’ve only been focused on attracting one type of business, what other avenues can you focus on? (vacant land, 2-4 units, investors, probate, divorce, second homes, first-time buyers, acreage, leaving California, moving up, moving down, retiring from the state, financial hardship, etc…).

IS OPENDOOR PIVOTING?

Right now Opendoor owns 63 units in the Sacramento region. Before the market shifted last year, Opendoor had about 300 to 330 units, so there has been a significant change. Some think Opendoor is heading toward failure, but for now they are still acquiring properties (7 since April). If anything, it looks like they’re pivoting to survive. Will they be successful? Only time will tell. 

I hope this was helpful.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook.

Questions: What are you seeing builders offer consumers? What are you seeing them do with their prices?

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Eating tacos and 10 housing market truths

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I eat tacos with investors. That’s right. A few times a year a group of real estate friends get together to talk shop at the best taco joint in town. It’s informal and fun because we’re friends, but it’s also valuable to get a sense for what everyone is seeing out there in the trenches. Anyway, despite not having tacos in front of me at the moment, I wanted to share some of the things that have seemed to come up lately in housing market conversations. Anything to add?

33102060 - top 10 - businessman with chalkboard

10 truths about the housing market

1) One high or low sale doesn’t make or break a market.

2) Just because inventory is low doesn’t mean buyers will pay any price.

3) The market isn’t doing the same thing in every neighborhood or price range.

4) There is no such thing as a national housing market. The “national” market is actually made up of thousands of local markets (Jonathan Miller).

5) Appraisers only measure the market. They don’t make values go up or down.

6) There is no recipe or formula for the way a housing “bubble” has to pop. In other words, for all the conversation about a current “bubble”, if the market did “pop” it wouldn’t necessarily have to look the same way it did 10 years ago.

7) Real estate advice has a shelf life, which means it might not be good for every market (or every price range or location).

8) Markets aren’t so perfect that we can say a property is only worth one certain amount like $336,456. It’s best to recognize there is a reasonable range for what the market might be willing to pay (say $330,000 to $340,000). Is there any support for the appraised value to come in at or near the list price or contract price? Does this price fall within the range of what is reasonable?

9) “Negative market trends are not the end of the world. They represent opportunities for some” (from Jonathan Miller).

10) Thinking positively or talking positively about the market doesn’t drive the market. In other words, “you can’t overpower the market with the power of positive thinking. The market doesn’t care what you or your client thinks” Jonathan Miller.

You may notice I referenced New York Appraiser Jonathan Miller a few times above. I realize that makes me look like a fanboy, but that’s okay because he’s an influential voice in my life and I appreciate his weekly notes every Friday. Last week Jonathan knocked it out of the park in his section entitled “McMansions, McEgos, McPrices and McHonor” (that’s where I picked up point #9 and #10).

how-to-think-like-an-appraiser-class-by-ryan-lundquist-150x150Class I’m teaching on Thursday: On September 29 from 9am-12pm I’m doing my favorite class at SAR called HOW TO THINK LIKE AN APPRAISER. We’re going to have a blast talking through seeing properties like an appraiser does. We’ll look at comp selection and talk through so many issues. My goal is to help you walk away full of actionable ideas. Register here.

Questions: What types of conversations are coming up in your circles right now? What is #11? I’d love to hear your take.

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