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FHA

Horses aren’t allowed & a big market update

January 14, 2020 By Ryan Lundquist 19 Comments

The other day a client asked me to include a statement in my appraisal that horses are allowed on the property. It was a huge lot, so it seemed like that might be okay… But I said NO for a very specific reason. Let’s talk about this and then for those interested let’s take a deep look at the local market.

A conversation with the city:

Me: Are horses allowed in the Tahoe Park neighborhood?

City: No. You need agricultural zoning for that to work. City of Sacramento code says: “It’s unlawful to keep, harbor, or maintain any bovine animal, horse, etc… on any parcel located in the city.” There are some locations that will work in the northern part of the city due to agricultural zoning, but not this location.

Me: What if it’s a really large lot though?

City: No. You need agricultural zoning.

Me: What if it’s an emotional support horse? (I wish I asked)

The point: On paper it might look like a horse property, but what does zoning allow? That’s the question. This is a good reminder to call the city or county to verify what is legally possible. To be fair owners can sometimes obtain a variance, but otherwise horses weren’t going to fly in this tract subdivision.

Class I’m teaching on Jan 16th: I’m doing a big market update at SAR from 9-10:30am. We’ll talk through the market, tips for talking to clients, and ideas for where to focus business. I’d love to see you there. Sign up here.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

A QUICK LOOK AT CONTENT

  1. Recap of 2019
  2. Loans & cash over the past decade
  3. The number of sales in 2019 vs 2018
  4. Distressed sales in Sacramento County
  5. Sales above $1M over the past eight years
  6. Sales below $100K over the past eight years
  7. Sales volume “recovery”
  8. Not a crash, but on the lower side
  9. Price growth is slowing down
  10. Comparing last year vs this year
  11. Price Cycles
  12. Housing supply is anemic
  13. More visuals for surrounding counties

Scroll down to see what captures your interest. There are a number of new visuals too. I used a different format. What do you think?

DOWNLOAD 145 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

1) Recap of 2019: The year ended up feeling somewhat normal after a painfully dull last half of 2018 that left us wondering what would happen in 2019. Price gains were modest, there were slightly fewer sales compared to the prior year, and it typically took several days longer to sell in most counties (besides El Dorado taking over ten days longer). Here are some trends to watch in 2020.

2) Loans & cash over the past decade: These visuals are brand new and I hope you like them. Conventional financing has taken off this past decade, right? FHA used to be more common until conventional products began offering lower down payments. There was actually an uptick in FHA though this year, so let’s keep watching that. Cash sales are not a big factor in today’s market despite sellers thinking they are.

3) The number of sales in 2019 vs 2018: There were more sales at higher prices and less at lower prices. This makes sense for a market that showed upward price movement. 

4) Distressed sales in Sacramento County: It’s astounding to think that 84% of sales in Sacramento County were distressed in early 2009, whereas now we have fewer than 1.5% bank-owned sales and 0.5% short sales. People keep asking me if we’re poised to see these numbers start increasing again. Technically there’s really no place to go but up since distressed sales have bottomed out. But I wouldn’t expect these to increase dramatically because there’s no mechanism in place right now that would trigger mass-distressed sales. There is not the ticking time-bomb of adjustable rate mortgages or an economic collapse. But if we had a devastating economic downturn or some other huge issue, that could change things. There are definitely voices that talk about a coming “wave” of distressed properties, but this wave has not materialized despite prophecies for many years. Granted, bank-owned sales are up very slightly this year, but it’s not statistically significant. I’ll keep you posted with any changes.

5) Sales above $1M over the past eight years: This is a fascinating way to look at the market. I know there are many colors, but here is the number of sales above $1M for each respective year. What’s the trend?

6) Sales below $100K over the past eight years: On the other side of the price spectrum, here are sales below $100K. There aren’t too many these days. I know, everyone wants to go back to 2012. But the problem is financing was hardly available back then to so many people who had a foreclosure or short sale on their record. So even though prices were right so to speak, financing wasn’t.

7) Sales volume “recovery”: We’ve begun to see sales volume come out of a funk as it was down for over a year. However, there’s an asterisk to this news because we’ve seen sexier volume over the past few months, but we’re also comparing these recent months to a REALLY dull season last year. So of course the numbers today look better. My advice? Take this news with a grain of salt and save rejoicing for the spring season if we see this trend continue.

8) Not a crash, but on the lower side: As I said above, we’ve been having a definitive sales volume slump since mid-2018, but lately volume has been stronger. The number of sales this year has basically been down about 3% or so from last year in the region, though when looking at the past five years we can see volume is down closer to 5% or so. But here’s the thing. Sales volume this year was still on the lower side of normal (and even higher than 2014 which was a dull year). This is a good reminder to look at stats in a wider context instead of having tunnel vision stuck on one or two years. For reference, when the market crashed in 2005 we saw a 40% drop in sales volume over one year.

9) Price growth is slowing down: Price growth has been slowing, which basically means prices aren’t rising as quickly as they used to. Though technically the monthly and quarterly data below show higher price growth this year. Does that mean the market has been more aggressive? Has it begun to rebound? Not necessarily. I recommend being hesitant about sharing this positive-sounding news because the market was REALLY dull last year. Thus when we compare monthly and quarterly numbers today with dismal stats from 2018 it can really inflate the figures.

10) Comparing last year vs this year: All year long most price metrics have been up about 2-4% each month compared to last year, but these past three months they’ve been higher. This is likely due to stats sagging last year during a dull 2018 fall season. I know, I keep mentioning that. Additionally, mortgage rates went down a few months ago and we’re likely seeing some of the effect of that.

11) Price Cycles: Markets go up and down. That’s just what they do. Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. Do you see the price deceleration in this current cycle? Also, in El Dorado County I pulled my stats just two days ago and the median price was down 0.1% instead of at 0% in my recap image above (that’s why the numbers are slightly different).

12) Housing supply is anemic: There isn’t much on the market right now, so buyers are hungry for good product. Remember, the spring market usually comes alive in the sales stats by March, but this means the market really started to move in January and February when these sales from March got into contract. Anyway, inventory looks to be mirroring what we saw a few years prior to last year’s dull season as you can see in the image directly below. There should be more homes hitting the market in coming months if we have a normal seasonal rhythm. Sellers, there’s nothing wrong with listing in January or February either. If you sense demand is there and especially if rates go down, you’ll have a captive audience.

13) More visuals: I know, there are too many visuals already. But here’s more. I never post them all either, so check out the download if you wish.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 145 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Questions: What stands out to you about the market last year? What are you seeing right now? Anything to add?

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 2019 market recap, 2019 real estate market, 2020 real estate market, cash, City of Sacramento zoning code, FHA, foreclosures, Home Appraiser, horses, House Appraiser, multiple offers, price growth, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sales volume shrinking, Short Sales, Tahoe Park, VA, Valuation

What type of heater is needed for a loan?

March 22, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 28 Comments

A guy wants to sell, but his central system is broken, so he has space heaters in each room. Does that work? Is it going to fly for a loan? What’s an appraiser going to be looking for when it comes to a heat source? Let’s consider some thoughts from Fannie Mae, HUD, local code, and different lenders.

First, as a quick refresher, appraisers are required during a loan to list what type of heat source is present. Appraisers typically turn on the heater during a FHA or VA transaction to be sure it is working, whereas that is not usually required during conventional financing (sometimes it is).

1) FHA

Quick FHA summary: In short, the heat source needs to be able to heat the house to 50 degrees at minimum and it should be automatic. The word “automatic” means it needs to work without someone making it work for an extended period of time. A plug-in space heater isn’t going to cut it because it can’t heat the entire house. Likewise, it’s not going to work for an owner to say, “My central system went out, but I have a fireplace, so we’re all good.” Nope.

Straight from FHA: FHA/HUD 4000.1 (Page 518) states “The Appraiser must examine the heating system to determine if it is adequate for healthful and comfortable living conditions, regardless of design, fuel or heat source. The Appraiser must notify the Mortgagee of the deficiency of MPR or MPS if the permanently installed heating system does not:

• automatically heat the living areas of the house to a minimum of 50 degrees F;
• provide healthful and comfortable heat or is not safe to operate;
• rely on a fuel source that is readily obtainable in the subject’s geographic area;
• have market acceptance within the subject’s marketplace; and
• operate without human intervention for extended periods of time.”

2) FANNIE MAE

Quick Fannie Mae summary: Fannie talks about how heating and other improvements need to conform to the neighborhood and have market acceptance. This means one dude might be fine with a plug-in space heater or his boy scout fire-starting skills, but that’s probably not acceptable in the market. See #4 below with some more thoughts about lenders and Fannie Mae.

Straight from Fannie Mae: B4-1.3-0.5 states, “The improvements should conform to the neighborhood in terms of age, type, design, and materials used for their construction. If there is market resistance to a property because its improvements are not compatible with the neighborhood or with the requirements of the competitive market because of adequacy of plumbing, heating, or electrical services; design; quality; size; condition; or any other reason directly related to market demand, the appraiser must address the impact to the value and marketability of the subject property.

3) LOCAL CODE & ADVICE

Local code: Standards from Fannie Mae and HUD are really important, but we also have to know the local market. For instance, Sacramento County does NOT allow portable space heaters as the main heat source (I’m guessing most areas are like this). There are also requirements for temperature, so if a wall heater, central system, or baseboard system can meet those requirements, then you’re all good.

Practical Advice: If you have a broken system and you’re planning to install a heater that is less traditional, I recommend talking with your loan officer to be sure the underwriter is going to sign off. If an appraiser has already visited the home, you can ask the appraiser what type of systems tend to be acceptable in the market too. Keep in mind appraisers aren’t building inspectors, so they’re probably not going to give specific advice such as the number of baseboard heaters needed to meet code (ask the building department). Also, if you’re wanting to use an alternative type of heat that is technically code compliant but not really used in the market, I’d strongly recommend you talk with your loan officer and appraiser first.

Straight from Sacramento County Code: “When the winter design temperature in Table R301.2(1) of the 2010 CRC is below 60*F (16*C)  every dwelling unit shall be provided with heating facilities capable of maintaining a minimum room temperature of 68*F (20*C) at a point 3 feet above the floor and 2 feet from exterior walls in all habitable rooms at the design temperature. The installation of one or more portable space heaters shall not be used to achieve compliance with.”

4) DIFFERENT RULES:

Real estate is hardly ever black and white, which means a strict rule in one place might not necessarily apply to every location or with every lender either. Thus we might see a rural home with nothing but a pellet stove obtain financing because it’s common for that market (which an appraiser would know). But it would be a marketability issue if we saw a house with a pellet stove (and no other system) in a suburban tract neighborhood where everything else has a central system. In that case I imagine most lenders would require a type of heat source that is common for the suburban tract market.

I asked Matt Gouge, a loan officer, to pitch in some thoughts from the perspective of Mountain West Financial:

Freddie and FNMA do not have any specific guides in reference to a properties’ heat source. The main guide FNMA references in their selling guide is B2-3-01 General Property Eligibility. The key is that the home is safe, sound and structurally secure and suitable for year-round use. The requirement of a permanent heat source can vary from lender to lender and geographic locations. A general guide followed by most lenders in the local area defines a permanent heat source as a heating unit appropriate for the GLA of the dwelling, hard-wired into the electrical system of the home and thermostatically controlled. Baseboard heat would be acceptable but must be hard-wired and thermostatically controlled, and it has to produce the appropriate amount of heat for the gross area of the living space. A portable type of heater, a wood burning or pellet stove are not considered a permanent heat source.

I know it’s frustrating to talk about rules that don’t apply everywhere, but then again real estate is not the same for every location, climate, bank, etc… So the rules aren’t always the same either.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Anything else to add to the conversation? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: appraiser guidelines, Fannie Mae, Fannie Mae heat guidelines, FHA, FHA heat guidelines, heat source, HUD, local code, Matt Gouge, permanent heat source, space heaters in sacramento county, what is required as a heat source for a loan

Price ceilings & literal ceilings that are too low

July 12, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 13 Comments

I have two types of ceilings on my mind. How do you know when a market begins to reach its price ceiling for the season? And how low can a ceiling be in a home and still be considered legitimate square footage by an appraiser?

I recently inspected a house where the ceiling was 6 feet 8 inches high. Is that tall enough to count? Is there such a thing as too low? Let’s talk about it. 

How low can a ceiling be? Lots of people think 8 feet is the minimum ceiling height because that’s a common height in most homes, but it’s actually 7 feet according to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI Z765). Technically ANSI says it’s okay to have a ceiling height at 6’4″ under beams though. Keep in mind sometimes a ceiling might have a downward slope like we see with a Tudor or the photo above. When ceilings slope really low, there is something called the “5 foot rule” where the appraiser can count any space above 5 feet as living area as long as over 50% of the ceiling area is at least 7 feet.

When appraisers observe houses with ceilings below 7 feet, they’ll typically email the lender and say, “Hey there, this property has a ceiling less than 7 feet, and that doesn’t cut it according to ANSI standards. How do you want me to proceed?” After hearing that there’s a good chance the lender might not want to do the loan. Of course a property with low ceilings can still have value and even be appraised, but it may need to be marketed to an investor paying cash instead of a buyer using conventional or FHA financing.

Market price ceilings: Switching ceiling gears, how would you know if the market was beginning to reach its price ceiling for the season? That’s a great question to ask since many markets in the United States are going to be doing just that over the next couple of months. As I said in June, the Sacramento market is beginning to slow down even though we don’t see it in the sales stats yet. This doesn’t mean the market is cold or values are declining. It only means we are seeing subtle clues to a slowing market as high altitude values from the spring are at the beginning of a downward seasonal descent.

Umm, please don’t say the market is slowing!!!

At times it’s not very popular in the real estate community to publicly talk about the market slowing, but it’s something that happens nearly every single year. I realize we have big headlines about the market being “hot”, and it really is in many way, but catching the symptoms of a slowing market is key for valuing properties (and it’s good for clients). I suggest starting to watch price reductions more closely because they’ve been increasing lately in Sacramento and this is one of the first signs of a slowing market. Also pay attention to days on market increasing in coming time along with some of the other factors above (including the sales to list price ratio). I highly recommend asking other real estate professionals the question, “What are you seeing out there?” It’s amazing the type of insight you can glean from title reps, loan officers, appraisers, agents, escrow officers, etc…

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

Values showed an increase again last month and sales volume was very steady compared to the past few Junes. Overall most price metrics were up 1-2% from last month, though the month prior they increased 2-4%. Inventory is still down about 20% from last year, and properties have been selling like hotcakes in only 9 days (that’s the median). In case you wanted to know, most price metrics are up about 7% from last year. One interesting thing to watch is FHA sales are starting to sag more noticeably as they ticked down a few percentage points to 21% of the market in Sacramento County. Granted, 1 in 5 sales is still quite a bit of FHA volume, but last year we were seeing 1 in 4 sales go FHA. It’s easy to think this means first-time buyers are getting squeezed out by Bay Area buyers, but that’s not really the case. My sense is the downtrend is due to more would-be FHA buyers using competitive conventional products instead of FHA. Lastly, it’s worth noting Curbed has a glowing article about Sacramento (cool that they quoted me too). This article is starting to go viral and it’s bound to get many locals pumped on how “hot” the Sacramento market is. Yet despite being “hot” in many ways, let’s remember to look for the signs of a slowing market because we have to realize the market usually hits its seasonal price ceiling right about now (but we won’t see it in the sales stats for a while). I could go on and on with words, but let me share some graphs to show the market visually.

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Sacramento County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Sacramento Regional graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Placer County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Any low ceiling stories to share? Is the price ceiling for the season just about here? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: 5 ft rule, ANSI, appraisals, Appraiser, average sales price, avg price per sq ft, cash purchases, ceilings are too low, days on market, FHA, foreclosures, Home Appraiser, hot market, house appraisals, increasin market, Median Price, Placer County real estate trends, Sacramento County real estate trends, Sacrametion Regional Market, seasonal slow down, sensational news, trend graphs

Some advice for sellers in an aggressive market

February 7, 2017 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Dear Sellers,

The market feels aggressive out there and you’re probably going to get multiple offers, but let’s have some real talk. Last week I wrote an open letter to buyers, but today I want to share some perspective to help your end of the transaction. Whether you are in Sacramento or elsewhere, I hope this is useful. Any thoughts?

18744389 - old paper on the wood background

Advice for sellers in an aggressive market:

1) Don’t get high on the headlines: It’s easy to read articles that say “the market is hot” and then ignore data in the neighborhood. It’s as if we see something in print and price according to the headline instead of actual sales and listings. Right now there are no shortage of articles saying “Sacramento is one of the hottest markets in the nation”, so be careful about getting distracted by the headlines.

2) Don’t aim for the unicorn: It’s easy to price for that one magical unicorn buyer who is going to pay more than anyone else for some reason, but I would advise you to price based on recent similar sales and similar listings that are actually getting into contract. I find some sellers say things like, “A cash investor from San Francisco is going to swoop in and pay top dollar for my property.” Yeah, maybe. But what might also happen is you sit on the market instead of sell because you priced for a mythical buyer instead of a real one.

3) Be careful to not treat the contract price as holy: We like to think there is something holy about a contract price as if price negotiation is finished when a contract is written, but that’s simply not true. If a buyer finds repairs are needed or if an appraisal rightly comes in lower than an inflated contract price, it may be prudent to reduce the price.

4) Remember the difference between “comps” and sales: We like to think all sales are “comps”, but there is a difference between properties that are actually comparable and ones that are simply sales. It’s easy to get distracted by a few high sales in the neighborhood, but if they are nothing like your property, then don’t give them much weight and pay the most attention to homes that are actually similar to yours. In simple terms, if your home was an apple, what have other apples sold for in the neighborhood? Don’t price your apple according to orange or banana sales.

5) Be aware of appraisals being scrutinized: If you haven’t sold a home in years, know the lending world has changed from what it used to be over ten years ago. These days lenders scrutinize appraisals like never before, so be careful about accepting an offer that is incredibly high if there is no way it is going to appraise that high. Of course if the buyer has cash to make up the difference, then you are fine. But if the buyer is strapped for cash, then the highest offer probably isn’t your best option. This is why many agents tell sellers to look for the strongest offer instead of the highest one.

6) Don’t hijack price per sq ft: One of the biggest pricing mistakes sellers make is to take a per sq ft figure from another sale down the street and use that figure to price their property. Here’s the thing though. There isn’t just one price per sq ft figure that applies to every single property in a neighborhood. For example, in East Sacramento the price per sq ft range for all sales last year was $169 to $552. So when a seller says, “Let’s use $552 to price my property,” my question would be, why not $551? Or why not $525? What about $436? Or maybe $278? We can quickly get a price that is far from reasonable if we are only looking at price per sq ft. Keep in mind smaller homes tend to have a much higher price per sq ft too (which I explain with my Starbucks cup analogy). My advice is to pay attention to price per sq ft, but don’t forget to look at actual similar sales in the neighborhood.

east sacramento price per sq ft range - sacramento appraisal blog

7) Try to be objective about your house: Buyers are going to look at your home with a microscope, which means they’ll see the wonderful things as well as the faults. Remember, it’s easy to get sentimental about your property because you have a history there, but memories can also be a mask for not seeing flaws. A seller recently told me, “My house is the most well-built one on the block” (the same builder built the entire tract). Another seller said, “My house is really unique for the neighborhood, which is why it’s worth so much more” (it was totally outdated though). Agents are trying to tell these sellers to price lower because that’s where the market is, but both these homes are likely going to be overpriced because the sellers cannot get past their own subjective views.

8) Be FHA-ready: One in four homes in Sacramento county sold with an FHA loan last year, so it’s a good idea to have your home ready for an FHA appraiser if you think your home might go FHA. Your agent can most likely bring you up to speed on some repairs that might be required or maybe look over an FHA list. Keep in mind 34% of all homes under $300,000 went FHA in 2016 in Sacramento County and the current FHA loan limit is $474,950. This is also a reminder that financed offers are closing escrow and actually far outweighing cash transactions.

9) The market isn’t the same at every price range: We like to think the market is doing the same thing in every price range and neighborhood, but that’s not true. For instance, the market under $300,000 is more aggressive than the market above $1.5M. Thus the market could be “hot” in one price range or neighborhood and cool in another. This is important to remember because all day long we read about how hot the market is in Midtown and how rents are rising there, but that same dynamic might not be present in your neighborhood.

10) Listen to your agent: In a market that feels aggressive it’s easy to ignore pricing advice from agents, so some sellers price at completely unrealistic levels. Despite values showing upward pressure in many price ranges, we are not in a market where you can command whatever price you want (even with anemic inventory). So if your agent is telling you where the market is and showing you similar sales and listings, ask yourself why you are not listening.

I hope this was helpful.

Sincerely,

Ryan

Questions: What piece of advice resonates with you? What is #11? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Resources Tagged With: advice for sellers, advice from an appraiser, comps vs sales, FHA, Home Appraiser, House Appraiser, Low Appraisals, pricing tips, realtors in sacramento, Sacramento real estate agents, selling a home in sacramento, selling in sacramento

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