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Are first-time buyers targeting 2-4 unit properties?

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There’s no inventory. It’s just incredibly sparse out there. So are buyers starting to look more to 2-4 unit properties since they are struggling to get into contract with single family homes? Well, maybe so. Let me share some visuals. If you’re not local, what’s happening in your market?

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE 2-4 UNIT MARKET

1) First-time buyers are pulling the trigger: Last year more first-time buyers purchased two to four units compared to previous years in the Sacramento region. Both FHA and VA loans have seen an uptick and are essentially at their highest level in recent years. Keep in mind FHA has actually been declining as a loan type in the single family market, so it’s interesting to see this uptick among multi-units. We need more time to fully understand this trend, but this could very well be an example of buyers looking to other types of properties since the single family market is struggling so heavily with few listings to purchase. 

2) Prices have increased: Here is a look at the annual median price over 18 years. The trend for multi-units follows the single family market closely as there was a huge increase, a bubble burst, and we’re now in our tenth year of price growth (with the current nominal price having surpassed 2005 prices).

3) Volume isn’t what it used to be: Just like the single family market, we’re seeing fewer sales today from the previous market height between 2003 to 2005. Moreover, last year there were 10.9% fewer multi-unit sales in the region. When the pandemic started investors pumped the brakes, but the second half of the year was much stronger. 

4) Types of financing: Here is a deeper look at the type of financing involved in two to four unit sales. In recent years conventional has been dominant and cash has been declining. This is the same trend we’re seeing in the single family market because it’s just so cheap to borrow money. Look at FHA and VA though showing an uptick overall, which is telling of a growing appetite among many first-time buyers for multi-units.

5) X-factors to consider: One thing to consider while pulling comps these days is whether tenants are paying full rent in light of an eviction moratorium in place in California. The reality is some investors may expect a price discount in light of rent not being paid. Also, it’s important to keep watching to see any effects of rent control since we’ve now had one year of rent control under our belts.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: What are you hearing from first-time buyers? What are you seeing in the 2-4 unit market? I’d love to hear your take.

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Horses aren’t allowed & a big market update

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The other day a client asked me to include a statement in my appraisal that horses are allowed on the property. It was a huge lot, so it seemed like that might be okay… But I said NO for a very specific reason. Let’s talk about this and then for those interested let’s take a deep look at the local market.

A conversation with the city:

Me: Are horses allowed in the Tahoe Park neighborhood?

City: No. You need agricultural zoning for that to work. City of Sacramento code says: “It’s unlawful to keep, harbor, or maintain any bovine animal, horse, etc… on any parcel located in the city.” There are some locations that will work in the northern part of the city due to agricultural zoning, but not this location.

Me: What if it’s a really large lot though?

City: No. You need agricultural zoning.

Me: What if it’s an emotional support horse? (I wish I asked)

The point: On paper it might look like a horse property, but what does zoning allow? That’s the question. This is a good reminder to call the city or county to verify what is legally possible. To be fair owners can sometimes obtain a variance, but otherwise horses weren’t going to fly in this tract subdivision.

Class I’m teaching on Jan 16th: I’m doing a big market update at SAR from 9-10:30am. We’ll talk through the market, tips for talking to clients, and ideas for where to focus business. I’d love to see you there. Sign up here.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local market update (long on purpose) —–——–

This post is designed to skim or digest slowly.

A QUICK LOOK AT CONTENT

  1. Recap of 2019
  2. Loans & cash over the past decade
  3. The number of sales in 2019 vs 2018
  4. Distressed sales in Sacramento County
  5. Sales above $1M over the past eight years
  6. Sales below $100K over the past eight years
  7. Sales volume “recovery”
  8. Not a crash, but on the lower side
  9. Price growth is slowing down
  10. Comparing last year vs this year
  11. Price Cycles
  12. Housing supply is anemic
  13. More visuals for surrounding counties

Scroll down to see what captures your interest. There are a number of new visuals too. I used a different format. What do you think?

DOWNLOAD 145 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

1) Recap of 2019: The year ended up feeling somewhat normal after a painfully dull last half of 2018 that left us wondering what would happen in 2019. Price gains were modest, there were slightly fewer sales compared to the prior year, and it typically took several days longer to sell in most counties (besides El Dorado taking over ten days longer). Here are some trends to watch in 2020.

2) Loans & cash over the past decade: These visuals are brand new and I hope you like them. Conventional financing has taken off this past decade, right? FHA used to be more common until conventional products began offering lower down payments. There was actually an uptick in FHA though this year, so let’s keep watching that. Cash sales are not a big factor in today’s market despite sellers thinking they are.

3) The number of sales in 2019 vs 2018: There were more sales at higher prices and less at lower prices. This makes sense for a market that showed upward price movement. 

4) Distressed sales in Sacramento County: It’s astounding to think that 84% of sales in Sacramento County were distressed in early 2009, whereas now we have fewer than 1.5% bank-owned sales and 0.5% short sales. People keep asking me if we’re poised to see these numbers start increasing again. Technically there’s really no place to go but up since distressed sales have bottomed out. But I wouldn’t expect these to increase dramatically because there’s no mechanism in place right now that would trigger mass-distressed sales. There is not the ticking time-bomb of adjustable rate mortgages or an economic collapse. But if we had a devastating economic downturn or some other huge issue, that could change things. There are definitely voices that talk about a coming “wave” of distressed properties, but this wave has not materialized despite prophecies for many years. Granted, bank-owned sales are up very slightly this year, but it’s not statistically significant. I’ll keep you posted with any changes.

5) Sales above $1M over the past eight years: This is a fascinating way to look at the market. I know there are many colors, but here is the number of sales above $1M for each respective year. What’s the trend?

6) Sales below $100K over the past eight years: On the other side of the price spectrum, here are sales below $100K. There aren’t too many these days. I know, everyone wants to go back to 2012. But the problem is financing was hardly available back then to so many people who had a foreclosure or short sale on their record. So even though prices were right so to speak, financing wasn’t.

7) Sales volume “recovery”: We’ve begun to see sales volume come out of a funk as it was down for over a year. However, there’s an asterisk to this news because we’ve seen sexier volume over the past few months, but we’re also comparing these recent months to a REALLY dull season last year. So of course the numbers today look better. My advice? Take this news with a grain of salt and save rejoicing for the spring season if we see this trend continue.

8) Not a crash, but on the lower side: As I said above, we’ve been having a definitive sales volume slump since mid-2018, but lately volume has been stronger. The number of sales this year has basically been down about 3% or so from last year in the region, though when looking at the past five years we can see volume is down closer to 5% or so. But here’s the thing. Sales volume this year was still on the lower side of normal (and even higher than 2014 which was a dull year). This is a good reminder to look at stats in a wider context instead of having tunnel vision stuck on one or two years. For reference, when the market crashed in 2005 we saw a 40% drop in sales volume over one year.

9) Price growth is slowing down: Price growth has been slowing, which basically means prices aren’t rising as quickly as they used to. Though technically the monthly and quarterly data below show higher price growth this year. Does that mean the market has been more aggressive? Has it begun to rebound? Not necessarily. I recommend being hesitant about sharing this positive-sounding news because the market was REALLY dull last year. Thus when we compare monthly and quarterly numbers today with dismal stats from 2018 it can really inflate the figures.

10) Comparing last year vs this year: All year long most price metrics have been up about 2-4% each month compared to last year, but these past three months they’ve been higher. This is likely due to stats sagging last year during a dull 2018 fall season. I know, I keep mentioning that. Additionally, mortgage rates went down a few months ago and we’re likely seeing some of the effect of that.

11) Price Cycles: Markets go up and down. That’s just what they do. Here’s a look at the past few price cycles in various counties. This is a fascinating way to see the market. Do you see the price deceleration in this current cycle? Also, in El Dorado County I pulled my stats just two days ago and the median price was down 0.1% instead of at 0% in my recap image above (that’s why the numbers are slightly different).

12) Housing supply is anemic: There isn’t much on the market right now, so buyers are hungry for good product. Remember, the spring market usually comes alive in the sales stats by March, but this means the market really started to move in January and February when these sales from March got into contract. Anyway, inventory looks to be mirroring what we saw a few years prior to last year’s dull season as you can see in the image directly below. There should be more homes hitting the market in coming months if we have a normal seasonal rhythm. Sellers, there’s nothing wrong with listing in January or February either. If you sense demand is there and especially if rates go down, you’ll have a captive audience.

13) More visuals: I know, there are too many visuals already. But here’s more. I never post them all either, so check out the download if you wish.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 145 visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Thanks for respecting my content: Please don’t copy my post verbatim or alter the images in any way. I will always show respect for your original work and give you full credit, so I ask for that same courtesy. Here are 5 ways to share my content.

Questions: What stands out to you about the market last year? What are you seeing right now? Anything to add?

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What type of heater is needed for a loan?

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A guy wants to sell, but his central system is broken, so he has space heaters in each room. Does that work? Is it going to fly for a loan? What’s an appraiser going to be looking for when it comes to a heat source? Let’s consider some thoughts from Fannie Mae, HUD, local code, and different lenders.

First, as a quick refresher, appraisers are required during a loan to list what type of heat source is present. Appraisers typically turn on the heater during a FHA or VA transaction to be sure it is working, whereas that is not usually required during conventional financing (sometimes it is).

1) FHA

Quick FHA summary: In short, the heat source needs to be able to heat the house to 50 degrees at minimum and it should be automatic. The word “automatic” means it needs to work without someone making it work for an extended period of time. A plug-in space heater isn’t going to cut it because it can’t heat the entire house. Likewise, it’s not going to work for an owner to say, “My central system went out, but I have a fireplace, so we’re all good.” Nope.

Straight from FHA: FHA/HUD 4000.1 (Page 518) states “The Appraiser must examine the heating system to determine if it is adequate for healthful and comfortable living conditions, regardless of design, fuel or heat source. The Appraiser must notify the Mortgagee of the deficiency of MPR or MPS if the permanently installed heating system does not:

• automatically heat the living areas of the house to a minimum of 50 degrees F;
• provide healthful and comfortable heat or is not safe to operate;
• rely on a fuel source that is readily obtainable in the subject’s geographic area;
• have market acceptance within the subject’s marketplace; and
• operate without human intervention for extended periods of time.”

2) FANNIE MAE

Quick Fannie Mae summary: Fannie talks about how heating and other improvements need to conform to the neighborhood and have market acceptance. This means one dude might be fine with a plug-in space heater or his boy scout fire-starting skills, but that’s probably not acceptable in the market. See #4 below with some more thoughts about lenders and Fannie Mae.

Straight from Fannie Mae: B4-1.3-0.5 states, “The improvements should conform to the neighborhood in terms of age, type, design, and materials used for their construction. If there is market resistance to a property because its improvements are not compatible with the neighborhood or with the requirements of the competitive market because of adequacy of plumbing, heating, or electrical services; design; quality; size; condition; or any other reason directly related to market demand, the appraiser must address the impact to the value and marketability of the subject property.

3) LOCAL CODE & ADVICE

Local code: Standards from Fannie Mae and HUD are really important, but we also have to know the local market. For instance, Sacramento County does NOT allow portable space heaters as the main heat source (I’m guessing most areas are like this). There are also requirements for temperature, so if a wall heater, central system, or baseboard system can meet those requirements, then you’re all good.

Practical Advice: If you have a broken system and you’re planning to install a heater that is less traditional, I recommend talking with your loan officer to be sure the underwriter is going to sign off. If an appraiser has already visited the home, you can ask the appraiser what type of systems tend to be acceptable in the market too. Keep in mind appraisers aren’t building inspectors, so they’re probably not going to give specific advice such as the number of baseboard heaters needed to meet code (ask the building department). Also, if you’re wanting to use an alternative type of heat that is technically code compliant but not really used in the market, I’d strongly recommend you talk with your loan officer and appraiser first.

Straight from Sacramento County Code: “When the winter design temperature in Table R301.2(1) of the 2010 CRC is below 60*F (16*C)  every dwelling unit shall be provided with heating facilities capable of maintaining a minimum room temperature of 68*F (20*C) at a point 3 feet above the floor and 2 feet from exterior walls in all habitable rooms at the design temperature. The installation of one or more portable space heaters shall not be used to achieve compliance with.”

4) DIFFERENT RULES:

Real estate is hardly ever black and white, which means a strict rule in one place might not necessarily apply to every location or with every lender either. Thus we might see a rural home with nothing but a pellet stove obtain financing because it’s common for that market (which an appraiser would know). But it would be a marketability issue if we saw a house with a pellet stove (and no other system) in a suburban tract neighborhood where everything else has a central system. In that case I imagine most lenders would require a type of heat source that is common for the suburban tract market.

I asked Matt Gouge, a loan officer, to pitch in some thoughts from the perspective of Mountain West Financial:

Freddie and FNMA do not have any specific guides in reference to a properties’ heat source. The main guide FNMA references in their selling guide is B2-3-01 General Property Eligibility. The key is that the home is safe, sound and structurally secure and suitable for year-round use. The requirement of a permanent heat source can vary from lender to lender and geographic locations. A general guide followed by most lenders in the local area defines a permanent heat source as a heating unit appropriate for the GLA of the dwelling, hard-wired into the electrical system of the home and thermostatically controlled. Baseboard heat would be acceptable but must be hard-wired and thermostatically controlled, and it has to produce the appropriate amount of heat for the gross area of the living space. A portable type of heater, a wood burning or pellet stove are not considered a permanent heat source.

I know it’s frustrating to talk about rules that don’t apply everywhere, but then again real estate is not the same for every location, climate, bank, etc… So the rules aren’t always the same either.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Anything else to add to the conversation? Did I miss something? I’d love to hear your take.

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Price ceilings & literal ceilings that are too low

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I have two types of ceilings on my mind. How do you know when a market begins to reach its price ceiling for the season? And how low can a ceiling be in a home and still be considered legitimate square footage by an appraiser?

I recently inspected a house where the ceiling was 6 feet 8 inches high. Is that tall enough to count? Is there such a thing as too low? Let’s talk about it. 

How low can a ceiling be? Lots of people think 8 feet is the minimum ceiling height because that’s a common height in most homes, but it’s actually 7 feet according to the American National Standards Institute (ANSI Z765). Technically ANSI says it’s okay to have a ceiling height at 6’4″ under beams though. Keep in mind sometimes a ceiling might have a downward slope like we see with a Tudor or the photo above. When ceilings slope really low, there is something called the “5 foot rule” where the appraiser can count any space above 5 feet as living area as long as over 50% of the ceiling area is at least 7 feet.

When appraisers observe houses with ceilings below 7 feet, they’ll typically email the lender and say, “Hey there, this property has a ceiling less than 7 feet, and that doesn’t cut it according to ANSI standards. How do you want me to proceed?” After hearing that there’s a good chance the lender might not want to do the loan. Of course a property with low ceilings can still have value and even be appraised, but it may need to be marketed to an investor paying cash instead of a buyer using conventional or FHA financing.

Market price ceilings: Switching ceiling gears, how would you know if the market was beginning to reach its price ceiling for the season? That’s a great question to ask since many markets in the United States are going to be doing just that over the next couple of months. As I said in June, the Sacramento market is beginning to slow down even though we don’t see it in the sales stats yet. This doesn’t mean the market is cold or values are declining. It only means we are seeing subtle clues to a slowing market as high altitude values from the spring are at the beginning of a downward seasonal descent.

Umm, please don’t say the market is slowing!!!

At times it’s not very popular in the real estate community to publicly talk about the market slowing, but it’s something that happens nearly every single year. I realize we have big headlines about the market being “hot”, and it really is in many way, but catching the symptoms of a slowing market is key for valuing properties (and it’s good for clients). I suggest starting to watch price reductions more closely because they’ve been increasing lately in Sacramento and this is one of the first signs of a slowing market. Also pay attention to days on market increasing in coming time along with some of the other factors above (including the sales to list price ratio). I highly recommend asking other real estate professionals the question, “What are you seeing out there?” It’s amazing the type of insight you can glean from title reps, loan officers, appraisers, agents, escrow officers, etc…

I hope that was helpful or interesting. Any thoughts?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

Values showed an increase again last month and sales volume was very steady compared to the past few Junes. Overall most price metrics were up 1-2% from last month, though the month prior they increased 2-4%. Inventory is still down about 20% from last year, and properties have been selling like hotcakes in only 9 days (that’s the median). In case you wanted to know, most price metrics are up about 7% from last year. One interesting thing to watch is FHA sales are starting to sag more noticeably as they ticked down a few percentage points to 21% of the market in Sacramento County. Granted, 1 in 5 sales is still quite a bit of FHA volume, but last year we were seeing 1 in 4 sales go FHA. It’s easy to think this means first-time buyers are getting squeezed out by Bay Area buyers, but that’s not really the case. My sense is the downtrend is due to more would-be FHA buyers using competitive conventional products instead of FHA. Lastly, it’s worth noting Curbed has a glowing article about Sacramento (cool that they quoted me too). This article is starting to go viral and it’s bound to get many locals pumped on how “hot” the Sacramento market is. Yet despite being “hot” in many ways, let’s remember to look for the signs of a slowing market because we have to realize the market usually hits its seasonal price ceiling right about now (but we won’t see it in the sales stats for a while). I could go on and on with words, but let me share some graphs to show the market visually.

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Sacramento County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Sacramento Regional graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

Placer County graphs this month (more graphs & stats here):

DOWNLOAD 74 graphs (and a stat sheet) HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: Any low ceiling stories to share? Is the price ceiling for the season just about here? Did I miss anything? I’d love to hear your take.

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