House Appraiser

It’s a new year, which means it’s crucial to take a look at the housing market. If you work in real estate, ask yourself these two questions: What is the market doing? And who are your clients going to be this year? The truth is if we do the same thing each year without really considering how the market is evolving, it’s easy to miss out on being relevant to clients.

Here are some trends and tips on my radar as 2015 begins, and I wanted to share them because I thought some of them might be good conversation fodder for business plans or with clients. These trends are relevant for Sacramento, but I have a feeling they might be showing up in many markets across the country. Enjoy.

12 trends and tips for real estate professionals in 2015

1. Buyers’ Market: The market is definitely morphing into a full-fledged buyers’ market. In light of more houses for sale, buyers simply have more options. This means properties will generally take longer to sell, and buyers will have more room to negotiate.
2. Pricing Correctly: As the market changes and inventory increases, it will be paramount this year to price properties correctly. When a market grows soft, buyers tend to become more picky about pricing and making offers, which means overpriced listings will sit on the market instead of sell.
3. The Small Distressed Sales Pond: Foreclosures and short sales used to drive the market, but that’s not the case any longer these days. Being a distressed property specialist is still a relevant avenue of business, but it’s also a crowded pond to fish in. Remember that owners who went through a foreclosure or short sale several years ago may actually now be able to re-enter the market (these buyers are called “Boomerang Buyers”).
4. Equity Sellers: Some home owners do not realize how much the market surged in recent years. They may actually be surprised to know they have equity again after the recent increases from 2012 to 2014. This can open up options for moving up or downsizing.
5. Dispelling the Want to Buy at the Perfect Time: With the advent of vast online real estate data, many buyers are watching the market carefully and wanting to time the market perfectly to be sure they are buying at a time when values are increasing. The reality is it’s not easy to pull this off. In fact, many home owners who purchased at the bottom of the market in early 2012 didn’t actually realize they were doing so. They were simply lucky and bought at a time they could afford. When I ask, “Do you realize you purchased at the bottom?”, their response is often, “Really? I had no idea at the time.” In short, in a market that is no longer rapidly appreciating in value, buyers need to focus on being sure they are comfortable with the price and monthly mortgage payments rather than looking for that perfect market moment to get rich in real estate.
6. Divorce: As the economy improves, divorce has been more common (the LA Times says so too). I easily did three times as many divorce appraisals last year compared with previous years. Divorce is a very difficult time in a client’s life, so it’s important to be able to serve clients in their time of need, and to be aware that divorce stats may be increasing as the economy heals.
7. FHA Buyers Increasing: Despite some in the real estate community saying FHA would not increase due to permanent mortgage insurance being required, it has definitely increased over the past 18 months in the Sacramento region. FHA has been a relevant product for many buyers since there is little money down required. Of course we can expect to see some more creative financing options emerge as the market softens, but in the mean time, if you are not in tune with FHA appraisal standards, it’s time to brush up so your buyers and sellers know what to expect. I have seen several properties recently trying to use traditional FHA financing that were blatantly not acceptable for FHA (maybe a 203K loan though). This is where knowing the standards becomes important.
8. Rentals Hitting the Market: Some investors who purchased in 2012 and 2013 are beginning to sell their properties. I have yet to see Blackstone do this, but I have seen some smaller funds with 30-40 properties begin to unload. I talked with an investor recently who has a few dozen properties, and he wondered how strong the market is to sell. What would you say?
9. Not as Easy to Flip: Everyone and their Mom wants to be a house flipper, but buying distressed inventory on MLS these days isn’t as easy as it used to be because there just aren’t as many low-priced foreclosures. Since there is less room to buy at a discount on MLS, it’s important for would-be flippers to explore alternative ways of picking up properties, and to be extra sure they are purchasing with enough room to rehab and sell. Being realistic about the ARV (After Repair Value) is key – especially in a price-sensitive market.
10. Exit Before It’s Too Late: Some property owners are concerned about the future direction of the market, so they will be interested in selling this year “before it’s too late” (in case the market begins to decline in value).
11. The Granite Wave: Having granite counters used to be such a custom feature a decade ago, but it’s become a bit stale in the current market. Don’t get me wrong, buyers still like granite, but at the same time there is a growing sense of the market becoming saturated with granite. What advice would you give clients about making a kitchen shine in today’s market?
12. Standing Out: As housing inventory presumably increases this year, it will be important for properties to stand out from others to compete for a limited pool of buyers. When inventory increases, buyers tend to become more finicky about location, condition, and upgrades (which underscores the need to price properties correctly).

NOTE: These trends may not be present in every neighborhood or price range in Sacramento, or in every area of the United States.

I hope this was helpful in some way, and I hope you have a profoundly successful year in real estate. I look forward to watching the market carefully this year, and to all the discussions we’ll have together. May you have a very prosperous 2015.

Questions: Anything else you’d add? If you are not in Sacramento, are there some parallels here that also resemble your market? I’d love to hear your take.

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