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When selling way above anything else (Q&A)

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There’s no way it will sell for that much…. But then it did. Today I have an interview with a local real estate agent about a property that recently commanded easily about $100,000 more than it looked like it could have on paper. I hope you enjoy this Q&A with Ted DeFazio and my takeaways below. I’d love to hear your take in the comments. Any thoughts?

Ryan: On paper it looked like this property on Clear Circle was going to sell for way less, right? What do you think happened to get the price so much higher?

Ted: I thought the listing price was optimistic from the start. I even fielded emails from other agents asking how I came up with the price and a couple “good luck, you’ll need it” text messages. I think it was the perfect storm of a turn-key property in a low-inventory market. Added to that, it was a mid century modern (which some thought was bastardized by the previous remodel), had a pool (Bay Area and LA people think they will melt without one), and a somewhat walkable location on the southern end of Carmichael. I know a few buyers who mapped out the distance to Whole Foods and the American River Parkway.

Ryan: I get how agents were texting you “good luck” because based on two previous sales it looks like this one easily closed $100-125K+ above where it theoretically would have been able to.

NOTE: The black dots are the subject property sales through the years compared to yellow dots which are properties of similar size. As you can see the most recent sale at $815,000 looks to have gone well above the historic trend. By the way, the subject was remodeled during each of these sales.

Ryan: Are you seeing buyers pay more for unique properties throughout the market? Or is this just in certain price ranges?

Ted: There is another one that comes to mind in Fair Oaks that recently sold in Curragh Downs. Same situation. Mid century vibes and a cul-de-sac lot backing to a greenbelt. I once again thought the listing price was optimistic but every offer was above asking. The seller purchased the home less than a year ago for over $200K less and didn’t really do much as far as remodeling goes. These were both in the $700-800K range. Another I can think of was recently sold on Garfield in Carmichael. I fielded emails and texts from agents asking where the price came from. I have two others in the $500-600K range which are both in contract at nearly 10% above asking.

Ryan: How do you know if something is an outlier able to break away from the price trend?

Ted: The Clear Circle house, Canonero Ct and Garfield Ave properties all shared the unique architectural design theme. I think that is what truly sets these homes apart giving them the potential to be outliers. Check out Bonny Knoll in Roseville. The seller knew it was an outlier and priced it accordingly. I think that’s the constant. As agents and appraisers, we often think we know better. I responded to an email questioning value by saying: I’m going to let it ride and see what happens.

Ryan: What are you seeing happen with modern and mid-century modern home appeal during the pandemic?

Ted: I think these types of properties command a higher price point than that of the traditional Mediterranean or typical ranch home down the street. The Bay Area and LA types tend to appreciate these design styles more than the average Sacramento resident. With the influx of these buyers, we are seeing premiums added to the more modern properties. So I think it has further added to the delta between typical and unique homes.

Ryan: What sort of advice would you give to buyers right now?

Ted: It’s hard out there. The offers stack up and the sellers get overwhelmed. The common theme I am seeing with the winning offer is the high offer price and a removal of the appraisal contingency. This puts buyers who aren’t flush with cash in a tough spot. I am hearing buyers are thinking that the market is overpriced. I often tell them that I stopped commenting on the market. I thought it was overpriced back in 2016. What do I know? Buying in this market is tough but being able to sell helps neutralize the offset.

Ryan: Any advice for sellers?

Ted: You are in the driver’s seat. If you have considered selling or making a move, there is no time like now. What an opportunity.

Ryan: Anything else to add?

Ted: I am seeing a divergent trend of agents either sharing what the other offers are or not. I find this market as difficult as I have ever seen to be in the buyer’s shoes. Add to it the listing agent not sharing what other offers are on the table makes it even harder to do our jobs. I ask my sellers if they are okay with me sharing the current offer terms with the other agents (as long as there isn’t a NDA) and they are usually okay because they understand that it will most likely get them more money in the end. The shot in the dark offer mentality / situation is aggravating and makes me not even want to submit an offer in certain cases. I have seen some seller instructions added to listings of some brokerages and wonder if they are truly acting in the best interest of the seller.

Ryan: Thanks Ted. I appreciate your time and insight. Everyone, please visit Ted’s website and let us know what you are seeing out there.

NOTE: Once in a while I do a Q&A with a local professional. This is never a paid spot and it’s not done to highlight one person either. It’s only when something has piqued my curiosity and contributes to discussion.

——————— some quick thoughts ———————

QUICK TAKEAWAYS from an appraiser’s perspective:

1) Your opinion vs the market: It doesn’t matter what any of us think about a property. As Ted said above, quite a few people looked at Clear Circle and thought the remodel destroyed the character of the home, but the resale market blatantly favored this property despite what purists thought. There were four offers when priced at $749,000. This is a good reminder in the valuation space to divorce ourselves from personal opinions and focus on one question. What does the market think?

2) The previous sale: Sometimes a previous sale can be really useful because it helps us understand how a property has fit into the market. But in other cases we need to completely throw out a previous sale because the market is simply different today (or maybe the prior sale sold too high or low). This is exactly why we have to be careful to give the current market and current comps the most weight while not getting too hung up on a previous sale (even though at times a previous sale can provide really helpful context). This is especially true today where the higher-end market has come alive throughout the country, so what buyers are willing to pay right now could simply be a detour from buyer behavior a few years ago.

3) The pandemic x-factor: Buyers hunting for homes these days are willing to pay extra for something architectural distinct. Additionally, buyers are paying premiums for homes with stellar views and backyard amenities. The idea is people know what it’s like to spend more time at home now, so they seem more sensitive to location as well as what’s actually in the backyard (including the view).

4) Paying way too much: There are situations today where buyers are obviously paying way above normal. Let me be clear. I’m not saying this sale above represented market value at $815,000. I’m also not saying it didn’t. I’ll let you be the judge. I’m just saying buyers in general throughout the market are paying premiums for special properties right now. But backing up there is no mistaking there are quite a few situations where buyers are obviously paying well beyond a reasonable value and the appraisal rightly should be coming in lower.

5) Sellers, don’t price to an outlier: Sellers, this market feels totally lopsided, but buyers can still sniff out an overpriced home. My advice? Be realistic about your house and DO NOT price according to an outlier example like the one in this post. Remember, not everything is getting 20 offers and bid up $100,000. In fact, only 2.8% of all sales last month had twenty offers or more. This is actually a higher than typical number, but it’s important to realize this figure is nowhere near half the market like some real estate narratives might suggest.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing out there relating to modern homes or other “special” properties? Any stories to share? I’d love to hear your take.

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Rates are low, but buyers aren’t going nuts

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Rates and inventory are really low, so on paper it seems like the market should be booming. But it’s not. The truth is sales numbers are down despite rates doing the limbo below four percent again. It’s like the market looks hot on paper, but it’s also a bit lackluster in some ways.

Affordability: A big issue today is buyers are struggling with affordability. After seven years of price increases, we’re seeing the market become too expensive for many prospective buyers since wage growth has not kept pace with price growth. Some buyers feel uncertain about the future also, which is causing hesitancy about whether to purchase.

Hot couple analogy: The market is like a super hot couple that looks great on paper. They’re rich, attractive, successful, and they get a ton of “likes” on Instagram. Everything looks perfect, but then out of nowhere they break up because it turns out their relationship wasn’t as good as everyone thought. In a similar way, the real estate market looks stellar on paper. Rates are low, inventory is sparse, and it’s actually really competitive out there. But we’re also seeing weaker sales volume which shows us buyers aren’t as enthusiastic as we’d assume them to be.

Any thoughts?

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Now for those interested, let’s talk about Sacramento trends. If I had to pick a few phrases to describe the market it would be competitive if priced right, modest price growth, slumping volume, and fairly normal stats for the spring.

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

THE SHORT VERSION:

  • Prices are up, volume is down
  • It kinda feels normal right now
  • Price growth has been modest
  • 46% of sales had multiple offers last month
  • Sales volume is down for the 14th month in a row
  • Low rates have helped change the feel of the market this year
  • Inventory is thin, but slightly higher than last year
  • The post is long on purpose. Skim or pour a cup of coffee

THE LONGER VERSION:

Here are some of the bigger topics right now:

Normal: The market felt really dull last year, but it’s been a somewhat normal year so far in 2019. There are certainly concerns about affordability, but from a stats perspective it’s been a pretty standard first half of the year. Pendings continue to be strong also, so buyers still clearly have a strong appetite for the market.

14 months in a row of slumping volume: Despite mortgage rates being low we’re seeing somewhat sluggish sales volume. In fact, sales volume was down 11.6% in the region last month and it’s down 8.6% so far in 2019. Moreover, we’ve had fourteen months in a row with lower sales volume compared to the previous year. In my mind it’s still best to say we’re having a slower year instead of a volume meltdown because levels aren’t alarmingly low by any stretch. Let’s watch this carefully.

Dude, rates will never get below 4% again: It’s been a little surprising to see how low rates have gone again, right? The narrative for a while was, “Dude, they’ll never go below 4% again. We’ve bottomed out.” Yet here we are. My sense is if rates keep going down it’ll only increase competition and artificially inflate prices. That would be temporarily nice for buyers, but an unfortunate byproduct is low rates in a wider picture tend to create less incentive for sellers to move. Why sell if you’re sitting on a 3.5% mortgage rate?

Purplebricks & the tech invasion: Last week it was announced that Purplebricks will be exiting the United States housing market after a 75% loss in shares. This company is going to the grave in the U.S., but the reality is we’re still in a market where tech companies are trying to disrupt the traditional real estate model. Next up? Zillow is said to be coming to Sacramento by the end of the year.

Joe Montana’s $49M overpriced listing: Former Quarterback Joe Montana listed his property for $49M and it didn’t sell because it was profoundly overpriced. In fact, the price has now been reduced to $28M. Many sellers are like Joe in trying to attract mythical unicorn buyers who will mysteriously overpay for some reason. My advice? Be aware that today’s buyers are incredibly picky about paying the right price.

The dream of selling at the top: I met a guy who wants to sell because he says the market might top out soon. His concern is a friend sold two years ago thinking the market was at its peak, but it wasn’t. The truth is it’s not so easy to time a market perfectly. We talk about how simple it is to do this, but most people pull it off from dumb luck more than anything. The reality is the bulk of buyers don’t buy based on price metrics, but rather lifestyle and affordability.

This is a fascinating chart, right? It shows a few price cycles over the past twenty years in Sacramento County. I don’t share this to say prices are about to change directions, but at some point that’s probably what we ought to expect because that’s what markets do. They go up and down. For now price momentum has been slowing and we’ll continue to watch this closely to see how it plays out. Let’s remember the collapse we saw in 2005 was not a normal trend that’s now the formula for the next price cycle. That was a market built on fraud and rampant speculation.

The coming recession: There are lots of predictions about a coming recession, and at some point one will happen. But predicting recession specifics is a bit like predicting housing market specifics. At the end of the day we might have ideas, but we don’t know the future if we’re honest. Moreover, the last “great” recession isn’t now the template or formula for all future recessions.

Eyeballs vs offers: Over two years ago I wrote about a $250M listing in Bel-Air. At the time it was the highest-priced property in the United States, and it was called “record breaking”. But today it’s still on the market and priced at $150M. Despite going viral and having global attention this listing did not sell. This reminds us it’s nice to have eyeballs on a listing, but the only thing that matters is offers. Sellers, if you aren’t getting offers, it may be time to adjust your pricing until the market bites.

Preparing for a slower season: At this time of year we typically see the market begin to slow down. The sales stats don’t show it yet, but when July stats come out we usually see it starts to take slightly longer to sell in July compared to June. This is a clue into a slowing market, and eventually we see more slowness in actual prices (but it often takes a few months to see the slow trend show up in actual sales stats). This is a good reminder to pay close attention to pendings today because that’s where we see what the current market is doing. What is similar and actually getting into contract? That is THE question.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

FOUR BIG ISSUES TO WATCH:

1) SLOWER GROWTH: The market has moved forward this year, but it’s been at a slower pace. In other words, the market has felt competitive this year, but price momentum has continued to slow. Remember, “slower” and “slow” are not dirty words in real estate. They are market realities.

2) A QUICK RECAP: All year prices have shown a modest uptick. What I mean is prices are up from last year, but not by much. Keep in mind the lowest prices are likely the “hottest” market in town too.

3) VOLUME SLUMP: The number of sales has slumped in the region for 14 months (and 13 months in Sacramento County). Overall volume is noticeably lower this year, but it’s still not outside of normal low ranges though either (see 2014 and 2015).

SACRAMENTO REGION:

Key Stats:

  • June volume down 11.6%
  • Volume is down 9.9% over the past 12 months

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

  • June volume down 13.4%
  • Volume is down 9.3% over the past 12 months

PLACER COUNTY:

Key Stats:

  • June volume is down 10%
  • Volume is down 9.2% over the past 12 months

EL DORADO COUNTY:

Key Stats:

  • June volume down 6.3%
  • Volume is down 12.4% over the past 12 months

4) PRICES TICKED UP IN JUNE: The market generally showed price increases last month, though they were pretty subtle.

NOTE: Take El Dorado County data with a grain of salt. Stats change significantly month by month.

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Please enjoy more images now.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

EL DORADO COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 70+ visuals: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there? What do you think prices are doing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers lately?

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The Golden State Killer’s house (quick survey)

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The suspected Golden State Killer was arrested two weeks ago. This man is said to be responsible for more than 50 rapes and 12 murders throughout California. It’s crazy to think about the path of terror this monster blazed for so many years. Well, let’s talk about him, but from a real estate angle.

Take a Quick Survey: I thought it would be interesting to do a quick survey to gauge public perception. If the Golden State Killer’s house was listed for sale, what sort of price discount if any would you expect to see? Vote below or HERE, and I’ll publish results in two weeks.

Create your own user feedback survey

Real Estate History: It’s sobering to think that Joseph James DeAngelo, the accused killer (aka East Area Rapist), was pursuing the “American dream” of home ownership all while destroying people’s lives. Here’s a history of his real estate happenings:

  • 1980: Bought a house for $77,000.
  • 1993: Refinance
  • 2003: Refinance
  • 2012: Refinance

The Golden State Killer’s Neighborhood: If you wondered what homes are selling for in the accused killer’s neighborhood, here’s a graph. The neighborhood is a well-kept area of Citrus Heights. I’ve seen a few national media outlets report the alleged killer lives in a luxurious community, but that’s not true. 

Dorothea Puente House: While we’re on the subject of mass-murderers in Sacramento, let’s talk about the duplex where seven bodies were discovered on F St in Sacramento in the late 80s compliments of Dorothea Puente. She lured victims to her “boarding” home, drugged and buried them, and then cashed their social security checks. This property has sold four times in the past, which is interesting as a case-study in terms of detrimental property conditions.

I look forward to more conversation in a couple of weeks. Thanks for voting in the survey above too. Fame and real estate can be complex and it’s definitely something to keep on the radar for this situation.

Questions: Would you buy this house? What advice would you give to a prospective buyer? I’d love to hear your take.

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Will it be an appraisal issue if there is pot growing at a house?

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Is it going to be a problem for a loan if the appraiser sees pot growing at a house? Well, it depends. Like many things in real estate, it’s not always a simple answer. Here are some things to consider.

Different opinions: There isn’t one definitive opinion appraisers have on how to handle cannabis, so seeing pot growing at a home can potentially be dealt with in different ways depending on the appraiser and the lender.

Not an agricultural specialist: Many appraisers don’t want to be put in the position of identifying plants, so some say, “I can’t tell if it’s Ficus or cannabis. I’m not an agricultural specialist. I don’t need to mention roses or peaches, so why would I call attention to a different plant?” Of course to be fair, roses and peaches aren’t federally illegal, so this might not be a perfect comparison.

It’s personal property: Some appraisers say, “It’s personal property, and it’s not my job to discuss personal items belonging to a seller or Borrower. I wouldn’t mention cottage cheese in the fridge or a Lambo‘ in the garage, so why would I mention a specific plant?”

Not a code enforcement officer: An appraiser in residential real estate shouldn’t be expected to confirm legality or count plants. Appraisers are not there to tattle, judge, or explain code.

One plant vs. farm: Let’s be real. There’s a difference between having a few plants for personal use and a full-fledged cartel “grow house.” Remember, it is never legal to use a residential house for a commercial cannabis operation. Yet here’s an honest question. How many plants are acceptable for a federally-backed loan? Is one too many? How about five, ten, or fifty? Ask a loan officer and see if you can get a definitive answer.

Bouncing the ball: When seeing “alternative agriculture,” an appraiser might email a photo to a lender client and say, “Hey, I saw some plants at the property. How would you like for me to handle this?” The appraiser in this case is bouncing the ball of liability to the client and allowing the lender to give direction. It is the lender’s decision and loan anyway, right? Some lenders might choose not to do the loan and other times appraisers might be asked to blur photos that clearly show a certain type of plant growing. In other cases lenders have asked for plants to be removed, so they might instruct the appraiser to make the value subject to removal of plants. The reality is most lenders have been silent about cannabis so far, but some smaller banks have been clear they won’t do loans with cannabis on site.

Would the loan have closed?: Here’s a question running through my mind. If I would have included a photo in my appraisal of cannabis growing somewhere on the parcel or in the house, would the loan have closed? Even if I personally think it’s no big deal to grow, if a loan only closes because I chose to ignore something that I knew would (or could) be an issue for a client, is that more liability for me as an appraiser? I know, it sounds like I’m overthinking the issue, but I’m actually doing critical thinking. This isn’t a statement on how appraisers should think. I’m only saying it’s a viable question to ponder in the midst of an emerging market. 

Closing Thoughts: Will it be an issue for the loan if there is cannabis growing? Honestly, there are many moving parts. I’m not trying to be frustrating, but it probably depends on the lender, how the appraiser handles it, and maybe even the number of plants. In short, this green issue is not black and white (sorry). Of course if there is obvious moisture or electrical damage associated with growing, then we can all agree that’s going to be a problem. The truth is some escrows with cannabis simply aren’t going to close since it’s an ambiguous world right now in lending due to the disconnect between federal and state law. Yet to be fair lots of people grow cannabis and they’re still getting loans. So clearly a few plants isn’t killing deals all the time either.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Did I miss something? Appraisers, how do you handle this? Lenders and Realtors, anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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