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The Golden State Killer’s house (quick survey)

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The suspected Golden State Killer was arrested two weeks ago. This man is said to be responsible for more than 50 rapes and 12 murders throughout California. It’s crazy to think about the path of terror this monster blazed for so many years. Well, let’s talk about him, but from a real estate angle.

Take a Quick Survey: I thought it would be interesting to do a quick survey to gauge public perception. If the Golden State Killer’s house was listed for sale, what sort of price discount if any would you expect to see? Vote below or HERE, and I’ll publish results in two weeks.

Create your own user feedback survey

Real Estate History: It’s sobering to think that Joseph James DeAngelo, the accused killer (aka East Area Rapist), was pursuing the “American dream” of home ownership all while destroying people’s lives. Here’s a history of his real estate happenings:

  • 1980: Bought a house for $77,000.
  • 1993: Refinance
  • 2003: Refinance
  • 2012: Refinance

The Golden State Killer’s Neighborhood: If you wondered what homes are selling for in the accused killer’s neighborhood, here’s a graph. The neighborhood is a well-kept area of Citrus Heights. I’ve seen a few national media outlets report the alleged killer lives in a luxurious community, but that’s not true. 

Dorothea Puente House: While we’re on the subject of mass-murderers in Sacramento, let’s talk about the duplex where seven bodies were discovered on F St in Sacramento in the late 80s compliments of Dorothea Puente. She lured victims to her “boarding” home, drugged and buried them, and then cashed their social security checks. This property has sold four times in the past, which is interesting as a case-study in terms of detrimental property conditions.

I look forward to more conversation in a couple of weeks. Thanks for voting in the survey above too. Fame and real estate can be complex and it’s definitely something to keep on the radar for this situation.

Questions: Would you buy this house? What advice would you give to a prospective buyer? I’d love to hear your take.

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Will it be an appraisal issue if there is pot growing at a house?

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Is it going to be a problem for a loan if the appraiser sees pot growing at a house? Well, it depends. Like many things in real estate, it’s not always a simple answer. Here are some things to consider.

Different opinions: There isn’t one definitive opinion appraisers have on how to handle cannabis, so seeing pot growing at a home can potentially be dealt with in different ways depending on the appraiser and the lender.

Not an agricultural specialist: Many appraisers don’t want to be put in the position of identifying plants, so some say, “I can’t tell if it’s Ficus or cannabis. I’m not an agricultural specialist. I don’t need to mention roses or peaches, so why would I call attention to a different plant?” Of course to be fair, roses and peaches aren’t federally illegal, so this might not be a perfect comparison.

It’s personal property: Some appraisers say, “It’s personal property, and it’s not my job to discuss personal items belonging to a seller or Borrower. I wouldn’t mention cottage cheese in the fridge or a Lambo‘ in the garage, so why would I mention a specific plant?”

Not a code enforcement officer: An appraiser in residential real estate shouldn’t be expected to confirm legality or count plants. Appraisers are not there to tattle, judge, or explain code.

One plant vs. farm: Let’s be real. There’s a difference between having a few plants for personal use and a full-fledged cartel “grow house.” Remember, it is never legal to use a residential house for a commercial cannabis operation. Yet here’s an honest question. How many plants are acceptable for a federally-backed loan? Is one too many? How about five, ten, or fifty? Ask a loan officer and see if you can get a definitive answer.

Bouncing the ball: When seeing “alternative agriculture,” an appraiser might email a photo to a lender client and say, “Hey, I saw some plants at the property. How would you like for me to handle this?” The appraiser in this case is bouncing the ball of liability to the client and allowing the lender to give direction. It is the lender’s decision and loan anyway, right? Some lenders might choose not to do the loan and other times appraisers might be asked to blur photos that clearly show a certain type of plant growing. In other cases lenders have asked for plants to be removed, so they might instruct the appraiser to make the value subject to removal of plants. The reality is most lenders have been silent about cannabis so far, but some smaller banks have been clear they won’t do loans with cannabis on site.

Would the loan have closed?: Here’s a question running through my mind. If I would have included a photo in my appraisal of cannabis growing somewhere on the parcel or in the house, would the loan have closed? Even if I personally think it’s no big deal to grow, if a loan only closes because I chose to ignore something that I knew would (or could) be an issue for a client, is that more liability for me as an appraiser? I know, it sounds like I’m overthinking the issue, but I’m actually doing critical thinking. This isn’t a statement on how appraisers should think. I’m only saying it’s a viable question to ponder in the midst of an emerging market. 

Closing Thoughts: Will it be an issue for the loan if there is cannabis growing? Honestly, there are many moving parts. I’m not trying to be frustrating, but it probably depends on the lender, how the appraiser handles it, and maybe even the number of plants. In short, this green issue is not black and white (sorry). Of course if there is obvious moisture or electrical damage associated with growing, then we can all agree that’s going to be a problem. The truth is some escrows with cannabis simply aren’t going to close since it’s an ambiguous world right now in lending due to the disconnect between federal and state law. Yet to be fair lots of people grow cannabis and they’re still getting loans. So clearly a few plants isn’t killing deals all the time either.

I hope that was interesting or helpful.

Questions: Did I miss something? Appraisers, how do you handle this? Lenders and Realtors, anything to add? I’d love to hear your take.

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My last blog post in 2017, Bitcoin, & a big market update

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I started this blog almost nine years ago, and this is my last post for the year. After next week I’ll be lying low, enjoying family, doing some woodworking, staying on my diet (I’m down 30 pounds), and taking some time to get recharged. But first I have two things on my mind. 

Thank you: Thank you so much for hanging with me for another year. I cannot tell you how much I appreciate your support, friendship, comments, emails, insight, and the business you send my way. It might sound cheesy, but I get so much joy out of writing once a week and I’m grateful for you. It’s been a dynamic year for business too, and I honestly could not be doing this without your support. Here’s to continuing to grow together. Please don’t stop asking questions, pitching in thoughts, and challenging my thinking.

Big market stats: Secondly, if you’re looking for the latest market trends for Sacramento, you’ve come to the right place. Check it out below. 

From my family to yours, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

The market is often dull during the fall, but that’s not the case this year. I mean, we’re definitely seeing slightly lower prices, it’s taking longer to sell, and sales volume is sloughing, so clearly the signs of a slower market are here. Yet this fall season isn’t really incredibly slow or painfully dull either.  

Sideways: Price metrics were more or less sideways last month, though some metrics either showed a slight uptick or a slight decline. Overall there wasn’t much change from the month before in terms of price, but it took an average of three days longer to sell. This November saw almost the same amount of sales as last November for the region. Housing inventory is slightly higher than the same time last year, but it’s still hovering at 1.60 months for the region – which is still low. In other words, the housing shortage didn’t go anywhere.

Bitcoin & Modest Appreciation: The rapid increase of Bitcoin has been the talk of town lately, and it’s also seemed to fuel some conversations about quickly rising values in real estate. I get the comparison, but we’re really not seeing Bitcoin type huge increases in real estate. In fact, this year in Sacramento values have seemed more modest in many price ranges, which means somewhere around 5-7% upticks. I realize “modest” in California would be huge in other areas of the country, but that’s not really the case on the west coast. Yet the bottom of the price market easily saw 10-15% increases in many areas of Sacramento. That’s not so modest.

Our “Bitcoin” real estate market in 2012 & 2013: The closest to rapid appreciation we’ve seen in Sacramento in recent years took place between 2012 and 2013 in which we saw price metrics change by 35-40% over the course of one year. During that time both real estate agents and appraisers said it wasn’t easy to keep up with how quickly prices were changing.

$7M Sale: Did you see the sale in Granite Bay that closed two days ago at $6.95M? What the? This is one of the highest residential sales ever in the Sacramento area. You can watch a video tour of it here. Also, that $4.1M condo listing Downtown has been pending since November. I don’t know what it’s in contract for yet, but let’s talk about it when it closes.

Rents: Sacramento made a list again on the fastest growing rents. Yardi Matrix reports a 9.1% uptick in rent year over year in November. Now if we can only get wages to grow by 9.1% too.

Price Sensitive: Lastly, the market may not be incredibly dull like it is during some fall seasons, but it’s still price sensitive. This means buyers are tending to be logical, well-informed, and often not so desperate as to offer any amount. My advice? Don’t just look to the high sales from the spring and summer. What is getting into contract right now? That will give you a good picture of the current market and a hint for how to price too (possibly lower than the height of spring / summer).

I could go on, but let’s get visual.

DOWNLOAD 69 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY:

  1. The median price is currently $349,450. It’s the same as last month but down 1% from summer.
  2. The median price is 7.5% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in November was 4.5% lower this year than 2016. There were 1354 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 32 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 4 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 18 days.
  6. It took 3 more days to sell in Nov. compared to October (median days).
  7. FHA sales were 20% of all sales last month in the county.
  8. Only 1.4% of sales last month were bank-owned & 0.9% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $224, which increased last month (11% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price softened slightly last month and is currently $385,778. This is 10% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 13% of all sales last month.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO REGION:

  1. The median price is $389,000. It softened nearly 1% last month.  
  2. The median price is 9.5% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in November was nearly the same as Nov 2016. There were 2220 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 36 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 5 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 19 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 1 day last month, which shows a slowing in the market.  
  7. FHA sales were 17.2% of all sales last month.
  8. Only 1.5% of sales last month were bank-owned & 0.8% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $230, which increased last month (10% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price increased less than 1% last month and is up 10% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 14% of all sales last month.

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. The median price is currently $451,000 and decreased about 1% last month.
  2. The median price is 5.6% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in November was 3.6% lower than 2016. There were 473 single family detached sales.
  4. It took an average of 40 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 9 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 19 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market deceased by 3 days last month (don’t read too much into that). 
  7. FHA sales were 12.6% of all sales.
  8. There were only 9 bank-owned sales last month and only 2 short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was $236, which is slightly higher than last month (9% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price is currently $513,280. This is 6.8% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 17% of all sales last month.

DOWNLOAD 69 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market? Anything I missed? I’d love to hear your take.

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