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Seeing the market while driving, crunching numbers, & eating tacos

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It’s not just about numbers. Look, I geek out over stats, but sometimes all we need to do is drive around town or have a few conversations to see the market. Today I wanted to share some trends I’m seeing by sharing photos I’ve taken recently. Then for those interested we’ll get into the numbers in my big monthly market update below. Anyway, let’s take a drive.

The rage of modern homes: Modern units like this are popping up in Sacramento in places that are typically close to Downtown. This small development is located in Midtown.

Flipping seminars: I’ve seen this guy on late-night TV promising to teach people how to flip homes. The problem? The market isn’t actually that great for flipping in Sacramento right now. Read about celebrity flipping seminars here.

The Prince tree: A local artist in Citrus Heights paid tribute to Prince in her front yard. I know something like this would not fly in an HOA community, but it reminds us there is maybe some room for creative expression in real estate.

Marijuana homes getting busted: There was a big raid last week where federal agents targeted 75 homes in the Sacramento region that were suspected to be “grow houses”. Remember, recreational cannabis is legal in California, but it’s never legal to have a commercial grow operation in a residential property. Anyway, I came across a different article in the SacBee that listed nine addresses of previous grow houses (golden data for appraisers).

Tearing down the neighborhood: A ranch house in Arden Park was purchased for $462,000 and torn down to build a custom home (currently pending close to $1.3M). This doesn’t happen in every neighborhood, so I’m always asking questions: What is being built? Who is buying? What is being flipped? Where is the bottom of the price market? Where is the top?

Neighborhoods that are changing: This is a colorful six-unit modern project in Oak Park off 2nd Avenue. Modern units like this are starting to pop up – especially around The Broadway Triangle.  

Here’s a modern project under construction on 1st Avenue in Oak Park.

The word on the street (while eating tacos): Every few months or so I get together with a group of real estate friends to eat at Chandos (my fav taco joint). It’s not like we gather to have exclusive rigid market talk, but I always leave with some insight because our taco club has investors, a loan officer, and a Realtor / flipper. I find understanding a market is about crunching numbers, but it’s also about the word on the street. This is why I regularly ask people, “What are you seeing out there?”

I hope that was interesting or helpful. Anything to add?

And now for anyone interested in the numbers….

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

Spring is definitely here. Well, the market has been alive for a couple of months, but we’re now really starting to see it in the stats. The median price rose about 4% in the region last month and it’s up 9% from last year. Overall we’re seeing all the normal signs of a spring market in that it took 7 less days to sell last month, more listings are hitting the market, and sales volume is increasing for the season. Housing inventory is up slightly in the region from where it was last year and so is sales volume (though volume is down 1.5% in Sacramento County).

New recap images: I spend so much time putting together graphs, but I’ve struggled to figure out a way to quickly sum things up. Anyway, here’s a stab at a summary. Do you like these? Anything you’d change? Feedback is welcome.

A few quick things:

Not much cash actually: It’s easy to believe cash is dominating – especially from the Bay Area, but it’s really not (did you hear that sellers?). Cash sales were 15% of all sales last month in the region and in Sacramento County we actually have about 3% less cash this year so far.

Oh dang… the median price: If you didn’t know, the median price is now 6.9% lower than when the “bubble” burst in Sacramento County in 2005. I tend to see jaws drop when sharing this stat, but here are some things to keep in mind about bubble conversations. Remember, there is no formula that says our market will “pop” if we go 6.9% higher, so it’s important to not get too stuck on the previous peak. Today’s market certainly has an inflated feel, but it’s also being driven by different factors than 2005 too, so it’s not a perfect comparison to always look back to 2005. Anyway, let’s not get too side tracked, but navigating this conversation will be key in coming time for real estate professionals, and I’ve heard some sellers wanting to list too in light of how high prices are. 

Zillow is going to sell homes: Yesterday HousingWire reported Zillow is going to be selling homes. There was suspicion this would happen, but The Big Z always denied it. Well, the cat’s out of the bag and I’m wondering how this will unfold. I’m also wondering if they’re going to try to chop agent fees. Let’s talk about this more as things develop. On a side note, will we have to watch listings and sales on Zillow in addition to MLS?

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 61 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

DOWNLOAD 61 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What images around town remind you of what the market is doing? I’d love to hear your take.

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Slumping volume, too many million dollar listings, & rising rates

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We love sensational real estate headlines, but here’s what tends to happen. We talk about something like it’s the biggest thing ever, it ends up being no big deal, and then we move on to the next thing. It sort of reminds me of Y2K because there was so much fear about worldwide chaos, but then nothing happened. All bark. No bite. Anyway, let’s talk about a few issues, and you decide if these are hyped-up “Y2K real estate trends” or not. Then I have a big Sacramento market update for anyone interested. Any thoughts?

Rising interest rates:

For years we’ve heard interest rates would rise, but nothing really happened. Well, now things have begun to change. It’s like Mom & Dad were threatening a punishment, but they never followed through, so we didn’t believe them…. until now. Interest rates are finally ticking up and it’s bound to make an impact on prices if the increase hits buyers in the wallet. What I mean is if buyers in mass can afford the increase, then it’s not a big deal unless buyers start showing resistance. An increase in rates won’t hit everyone the same either as buyers at the lowest price ranges will feel it the most. Keep in mind rising rates in the near future could actually lead to buyers rushing the market instead of withdrawing from it. What will happen? Nobody knows. Heck, rates are still incredibly low, and we don’t even know if they’ll continue to rise. But the Fed has been more forthright about coming rate hikes, so that’s why this feels like more than pure hype. Anyway, let’s see how this plays out and keep an eye on creative financing from lenders too.

Are there too many million dollar listings?

Headlines are talking about the high-end market softening in portions of the country. Locally I’ve heard that sentiment since inventory seems imbalanced at the top right now in the Sacramento region. It sounds alarming to think there is a year’s worth of million dollar listings, so it’s easy to conclude the high-end market is sagging. But last year at the same time we saw nearly the same number of listings. If you need to see the numbers, at the beginning of February 2017 there were 213 listings above $1M and this year there were 220 listings at the beginning of the month. It would be insanity to see twelve months of housing inventory at the lowest prices, but it’s actually fairly normal for January stats for the high-end. In short, it could be possible the million dollar market is softening, but for now let’s not use the number of listings alone as evidence.

Is sales volume slumping?

I’ve been noticing real estate headlines talking about slumping sales volume in many markets across the United States. For Sacramento County we actually had the strongest January since 2013, yet it is true that yearly volume is down 2.5%. This isn’t shocking news because nearly all of last year volume was down 1-2% depending on the month. Here’s the thing though. Sales volume in 2017 was slightly lower than 2016, but it was actually higher than 2015. This reminds us if we only look at one year of sales we might miss the bigger trend. Anyway, volume is also down in the entire region, though only by 1%. Overall it’s fair to talk about lower volume because that’s a fact, but it’s probably not fair to hype the issue too much – especially since volume is actually higher than 2015. Let’s keep watching though because it would be a huge deal if sales volume really did start to decline significantly.

Overpricing because the market is so “hot”:

In case you wanted some background noise while working, I did a Facebook Live Q&A last week with Realtor Justin Vierra and we talked about pricing for the “unicorn.” Overpricing is a real issue in today’s market. By the way, if anyone wants to do podcasts and interviews, I love that stuff. You can listen to our hour-long conversation here too in case you wanted more than just this clip.

I hope that was interesting. Anything to add?

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

Right now we’re in that weird place where sales stats are sagging from a slower fall season, but the market is heating up. For January stats we saw all the typical signs we’d expect to see. Sales volume declined, it took an extra day to sell, most price metrics sloughed, and inventory increased. The median price in Sacramento County actually has been fairly flat, but last week I talked about how the market really did slow down despite the flatness. Anyway, I have quite a few visuals below to help show how the market has moved in recent time.

Housing supply: Inventory is up a bit right now. It’s not much, but this January was up 6.5% in the region compared to last year at the same time. Over the past few months inventory has actually ticked up slightly, and that’s welcome news for the market. Yet before writing home to say the housing shortage is over (it’s not), let’s wait to see what happens during the spring market. I’m not overly impressed at a few months of slightly higher inventory around the slower fall months. Let’s watch the spring market, which will be the bigger test.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

NOTE: I cut out a few graphs and data this month. If you miss something, let me know.

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market? Is the top softening? What are buyers saying about interest rates? Anything I missed? I’d love to hear your take.

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Fanny packs, pendings, and a slower market

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I guess I never thought I’d talk about fanny packs on my blog, but here goes. This is either a new high or low depending on your perspective, but I want to share an important concept to consider – especially during a slower market. Then for anyone interested I have a big market update for Sacramento. Any thoughts?

Fanny pack analogy: Imagine spotting a guy wearing a fanny pack. You might think, “Sweet, I haven’t seen one since the early 90s.” The truth is if we only saw one dude sporting a pouch, we’d probably just think this person is trapped in the 80s and 90s (like Uncle Rico back in ’82). After all, one guy’s fashion statement doesn’t mean it’s a trend for everyone. But if we started seeing more and more people wearing fanny packs everywhere we went, then it’s probably a fashion trend. The same thing happens with pendings. If we only have one pending at a much higher level than anything else in the market area, it’s probably an outlier more than anything. It might be an isolated incident that’s totally disconnected from the market (like one guy wearing a fanny pack) rather than a real indicator of value (a trend). But if we saw a group of pendings shifting higher or lower, then that’s probably a trend.

The big point: Sometimes we get so distracted by the bling of one high listing or pending that we fail to see the bigger picture of value in a neighborhood. It’s like we develop tunnel vision and get locked into one outlier rather than looking at everything else that is similar AND trending lower. Sellers in particular struggle with this during the fall because they sometimes only see the highest prices from the spring rather than current listings and pendings that might be generating slightly lower prices because the market has softened. Or it’s easy to see that one overpriced listing down the street and expect to fetch a similar lofty price rather than recognizing that zero properties are getting into contract that high. Thus let’s be cautious not to stake all the weight of value on one “lone ranger” pending or listing while ignoring all other data. Otherwise it’s sort of like seeing one guy wearing a fanny pack and calling it a trend…

Disclaimer: This post was in no way meant to offend anyone who used to wear, currently wears, or will wear a fanny pack.  🙂

–——-——- Big monthly market update (it’s long on purpose) ———–——-

The market has continued to soften, though it’s not really all that soft. Inventory is up, price reductions have increased, sales volume has been dropping, it took three days longer to sell last month in the region, and price metrics are down about 1% from the height of summer. Overall the market is clearly slowing down for the season, though it’s not painfully dull like it was in 2013 or 2014 during the fall. This is a key to understand because when saying values are “softening” some interpret that to mean the market is really slow or crashing. But that’s not what I’m saying.

Big Point: We have a housing shortage, but that’s not a trump card to stop a slower seasonal trend.

Let’s get technical. Many price stats last month actually showed an increase in value by about 1%. What the? Does this mean the market increased? I thought you just told me the market is slowing? Let’s remember that sales from October really tell us more about properties that got into contract in August and September before they actually closed escrow in October. Thus that 1% uptick really happened in the market a couple of months ago rather than in October. In other words we’ll see the real trend of the market for October when the pendings from October close in November and December. This is so important because let’s not make a big deal about the market technically showing an increase because the uptick didn’t technically happen last month. Know what I’m saying? If we want to see the current market we have to look at the sales, but we cannot forget to give strong weight to the listings and pendings. Are properties taking longer to sell? Are there more listings hitting the market? Are properties starting to generate less offers or offers at lower prices? What are buyers, sellers, and the real estate community saying about the market?

A huge soft stat: Every year the median price and average sales price in Sacramento County tend to soften by about 5%. This doesn’t necessarily mean values decline by 5% in every neighborhood or price range, but it does mean we can expect price softening in most areas during the fall season.

By the way, here’s an article I wrote for Comstock’s magazine this month about some of the different layers of the Sacramento market right now.

I could go on, but let’s get visual.

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO COUNTY STATS:

  1. The median price is currently $349,450. It’s up slightly from last month but down 1% from summer.
  2. The median price is 9.2% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in October was 5.4% lower this year than 2016. There were 1456 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 4 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 15 days.
  6. It took 1 more day to sell in October compared to September (median days).
  7. FHA sales were 19.9% of all sales last month in the county.
  8. Only 0.7% of sales last month were bank-owned & 0.7% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $221, which is about 1% lower than last month (9% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price increased about 1% last month and is currently $386,000. This is 9.4% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 12.2% of all sales last month.

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs & stats here):

SACRAMENTO REGION STATS:

  1. The median price is $392,000. It increased about 2% last month, but it’s down 1% from summer.  
  2. The median price is 9.8% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in October was nearly the same as October 2016. There were 2380 single family detached sales last month.
  4. It took an average of 34 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 3 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 18 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 3 days last month, which shows a slowing in the market.  
  7. FHA sales were 16.5% of all sales last month.
  8. Only 0.8% of sales last month were bank-owned & 0.8% were short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was about $227, which is down slightly from last month (9% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price increased about 1% last month and down about 1.5% from summer (but up 9.4% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 15% of all sales last month.

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs & stats here):

PLACER COUNTY STATS:

  1. The median price is currently $455,000 and increased about 1% last month.
  2. The median price is 3.8% higher than the same time last year.
  3. Sales volume in October was 10% higher than 2016. There were 533 single family detached sales.
  4. It took an average of 37 days to sell a home last month (one year ago it was taking 4 days longer).
  5. The median days on market last month was 22 days, which means properties are selling really quickly.
  6. The median days on market increased by 4 days last month, which shows a slowing in the market. 
  7. FHA sales were 9.5% of all sales.
  8. There were only 4 bank-owned sales last month and only 4 short sales.
  9. The avg price per sq ft was $232, which is slightly higher than last month (9.2% higher than last year).
  10. The avg sales price is currently $511,121. This is 6.4% higher than last year.
  11. Cash sales were 18% of all sales last month.

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post and more here as a zip file (includes a stat sheet too). See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: On a serious note, did you wear a fanny pack back in the day? Anything else you’re seeing in the market? I’d love to hear your take.

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Making the numbers say what we want (and a Sacramento market update)

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We can make numbers say whatever we want. We see this all the time in the media, politics, and even in real estate. Sometimes it’s a matter of intentionally fudging the numbers, but other times we might be honest about sharing something but actually still get it totally wrong. Today I want to highlight a real life example how we can end up saying something totally different about the market depending on the numbers we’re looking at. Whether you’re local or not, I hope you can take something away from this post. Then for those interested we’ll dive into a big Sacramento market update. Any thoughts? I’d love to hear your take.

Example 1: Sales price to list price ratio:

sold-vs-list-price-percentage-in-sacramento-county

The sales vs. list price percentage is the ratio between the sales price and whatever the most recent list price was before a property got into contract. For example, imagine a property listed at $100,000, was reduced to $98,000, and then went into contract at $98,000. The sales to list price would be 100% (98/98). If we look at this metric alone and see a county average of 100%, it looks like properties are selling for whatever they’re listed for. Woohoo, the market is hot!!!

Example 2: Sales price to ORIGINAL list price ratio:

sales-price-to-original-list-price-in-sacramento-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

The sales to original list price ratio is the relationship between the original list price and the final sales price. For example, imagine a property listed at $100,000 but was reduced to $98,000, and then went into contract at $96,000. The sales to list price ratio would be 96% (96/100). This metric takes into account ALL price reductions, and in my mind tells a more fuller story of the market.

KEY QUESTION: Which one above does your CMA report?

BIG POINT: If we look at the sales price to list price ratio the market seems like it’s NOT softening. But if we take a deeper look at the sales price to ORIGINAL list price ratio, we see properties on average sold for 4% less than their original list price last month. This is definitely a more telling stat because it reminds us how many properties have been overpriced lately. Remember, there were nearly 1800 sales last month, so an average 4% decline is a big stat. But it’s easy to miss that if we don’t know what to look for and end up reporting the first stat above.

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update  ———–—–

big-monthly-market-update-post-sacramento-appraisal-blog-image-purchased-from-123rfTwo ways to read the BIG POST:

  1. Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: The market feels like it should at this time of year. It’s taking slightly longer to sell than it was a couple of months ago, the sales to original list price ratio has been declining, and prices are softening as the hot summer fades away. This doesn’t mean the market is dull at every price range though. In fact, the bottom of the market under $300,000 is definitely more aggressive than properties above $500,000. Right now housing inventory is 11% lower than it was the same time last year and a whopping 35% lower than it was in 2014. If you remember, two years ago the market felt extremely dull and there were about 400 price reductions every day when logging in to MLS (this year price reductions are hovering around 200 tops every day (that’s for the entire MLS coverage area)). This reminds us some fall markets are softer than others. Sales volume this year has been about the same as it was last year, though it’s important to note FHA is down 6% and cash is down over 8% so far. Celebrity house flipping seminars are coming to town frequently in Sacramento, but keep in mind only 2% of all sales in the region last month were bank-owned, which reminds us low-priced fixer deals on MLS are pretty much a thing of the past. Lastly, there has been lots of talk about the market having shifted or beginning a downturn, but right now the stats look to be showing a normal seasonal slowing. We often hear things like, “the market is starting to tank”, but unless we see a real change in the stats or hear something more definitive from the real estate community about values declining, let’s be in tune with the slowing seasonal market. In case it’s useful, here is a video tutorial I did a couple of weeks ago to walk through the slowing season and what it looked like in 2005 also.

Sacramento County:

  1. The median price is 102% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. Sales volume was up 8.5% this August compared to August 2015.
  3. There were only 4 sales under $100K last month (single family detached).
  4. Sales volume is up about 4% this year compared to last year.
  5. Housing inventory is 11% lower than the same time last year (only 1.57 months of inventory).
  6. FHA volume is down about 6% this year compared to 2015 (though they were 26% of all sales last month).
  7. Cash sales were only 14% of all sales last month.
  8. It took an average of 26 days to sell a home last month, which is 1 day less than the previous month (and 8 less days compared to last year).
  9. REOs were only 3% of all sales last month and short sales were 2.8%.
  10. The median price increased by 1% from last month, is down 3% from two months ago, and is up nearly 12% from last year at the same time.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

inventory-in-sacramento-county-since-2013-part-2-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

median-price-context-in-sacramento-county

median-price-since-2013-in-sacramento-county

price-metrics-since-2015-in-sacramento-county-look-at-all

inventory-august-2016-by-home-appraiser-blog

cdom-in-sacramento-county-by-sacramento-regional-appraisal-blog

sales-volume-in-sacramento-county-since-2012

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

  1. The median price is 98.5% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took the same time to sell last month compared to the previous month (but 8 less days compared to August 2015).
  3. Sales volume is about the same as it was last year at the same time (very slightly more this year so far)
  4. Cash sales were 15% of all sales last month.
  5. Cash sales volume is 6.4% lower this year than last year.
  6. FHA sales were 22% of all sales last month.
  7. FHA sales volume is down nearly 7% this year so far.
  8. There is 1.77 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is over 13% lower than the same time last year.
  9. The median price increased last month, but it’s down from two months ago. The median price is up nearly 9% from last year at the same time. The average sales price and average price per sq ft are both up about 8% from last year too.
  10. REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were the same.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

median-price-sacramento-placer-yolo-el-dorado-county

regional-inventory-by-sacramento-regional-appraisal-blog

sacramento-region-volume-fha-and-conventional-by-appraiser-blog

days-on-market-in-placer-sac-el-dorado-yolo-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

number-of-listings-in-sacramento-regional-market

interest-rates-inventory-median-price-in-sacramento-regional-market-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog-market

number-of-listings-in-placer-yolo-el-dorado-sacramento-by-home-appraiser-blog

PLACER COUNTY:

  1. Today’s median price is 70% higher than it was in early 2012.
  2. It took 4 more days to sell a house last month than the previous month (but 6 less days than last year at the same time).
  3. Sales volume was down less than 1% in August 2016 compared to last August and is down slightly for the year about 3%.
  4. Both FHA sales were 16% and cash sales were 19% of all sales last month.
  5. There is 2.05 months of housing supply in Placer County right now, which is down nearly 13% from the same time last year.
  6. The median price declined about 1% from the previous month, but for a better context it’s up 7% from last year at the same time.
  7. The average price per sq ft was $214 last month (was $202 last year at the same time).
  8. The average sales price was $472K last month (up about 4% from last year).
  9. Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.
  10. Short sales were 2% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

placer-county-median-price-since-2014-part-2-by-home-appraiser-blog

placer-county-housing-inventory-by-home-appraiser-blog

months-of-housing-inventory-in-placer-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

number-of-listings-in-placer-county-2016

days-on-market-in-placer-county-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

placer-county-sales-volume-by-sacramento-appraisal-blog

DOWNLOAD 70 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

how-to-think-like-an-appraiser-class-by-ryan-lundquistAppraisal Class I’m teaching: On September 29 from 9am-12pm I’m doing my favorite class at SAR called HOW TO THINK LIKE AN APPRAISER. This is a tremendous time where we’ll talk about seeing properties like an appraiser does. We’ll look at comp selection, using price per sq ft properly, and so many issues. My goal is to help you walk away glad you came and full of actionable ideas for business. Register here.

Question: Did I miss anything? Any other market insight you’d like to add? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

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