It’s been a long time since we’ve seen housing stats like this

This hasn’t happened in a long time. Price stats are barely up from one year ago. Over the past few months, prices have really flattened, and we’ve started to feel all the extra listings out there. Some smaller counties are even starting to get negative price readings. Let’s talk about it. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

5/21/25 Grounded Real Estate
6/5/25 Auburn Marketing Meeting
6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

MINDSET IS EVERYTHING FOR REAL ESTATE PROS

An important reminder. Who has incentive to buy, sell, and invest in today’s market? Find those people. That’s the only thing that ever matters. I have some other tips at the bottom.

IT’S BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE WE’VE SEEN STATS LIKE THIS

Price metrics are hovering right around where they were one year ago, and it’s been a long time since we’ve seen that happen. Check out nine counties below and see how close the metrics are to one year ago. You’ll notice we’re starting to get some negative price metrics in some counties too (often smaller areas). Nothing is a shocker here since the market has felt so flat for many months, and that flatness is catching up to the stats. All that said, be careful about being rigid with these numbers because not every price range and location are going to feel exactly the same. Keep in mind if prices are flat on paper though, that could mean some locations truly are flat, but others could be up or down. 

SOME DIFFERENT WAYS TO SEE PRICE METRICS

Prices have been moving very horizontal lately when considering the region as a whole, and there are different types of graphs to help show this. Here are some examples. Do you see the blue line and red line getting very close?

And scatter graphs look like this in most neighborhoods. It’s been overwhelmingly flat in so many locations, but at times in some areas it looks like there is some downward direction too.

SUPPLY HAS BEEN GROWING MORE THAN DEMAND

The reason why the market has been softening is we are seeing the pile of actives grow more than the pile of sales. In other words, supply is growing faster than demand. For instance, during the first four months of the year, we had about 1,500 extra new listings in the region compared to the same time last year, but we had less than 100 extra sales. We are actually still historically low in terms of the number of listings, but we don’t need to be at “normal” levels for the market to soften. It’s all about the relationship between the number of sellers and buyers today. And today, the number of sales has been stagnant, which is why we’re feeling the higher level of listings today (even though it’s not historically high).

LACKLUSTER BUYER DEMAND IN APRIL

Since early April we’ve seen a dip in the number of pending contracts (see blue line). Is this the tariff effect and economic uncertainty, or is it the byproduct of mortgage rates being slightly higher since then? Maybe it’s one or the other, or both. No matter what, we can say uncertainty has not been a good thing for housing since early April.

WHERE ARE BUYERS BUYING?

Here’s a look at some data for the first four months of the year. It’s overall pretty flat in most areas, but the positive news is buyers have thawed out very slightly. 

HIGHER PRICES STILL PERFORMING BETTER

More strength at the top. That’s been the vibe. Check out the visuals below. The percentages look sensational, so just be sure to look at the blue bars too (actual number of sales). For instance, volume above $1.5M rose about 10% this year, but that’s only 12 more sales than last year.

LOOKING AHEAD TO A SOFTER MARKET?

It’s going to be interesting to see how the market moves ahead. Look, if rates dipped, that could change the temperature of the housing market since so many buyers are waiting for the math to work. But if we persist to have listings grow more than sales like we have been seeing, that could lead to softer prices. Only time will tell, but my expectation is for lower prices if we continue to see supply outperform demand.

TRUTH NUGGETS FROM MY MARKET TALKS

Please come to some of my talks. I am speaking typically once a week, and I’ve been doing a deep dive into the stats. But on top of numbers, I’m talking about the importance of mindset for real estate professionals. You can’t control the market, but you can control your mindset. I’m also identifying locations and price ranges to focus business as well as language to use to describe the market. Here is a slide from yesterday at PCAR.

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly.  If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What are you seeing happen with prices right now? Are they up, flat, or down in the areas you’re working? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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