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CDOM

Is it just me or is the market slowing?

November 12, 2018 By Ryan Lundquist 24 Comments

The market is slowing. We’ve been hearing that all over the place lately and it’s been a common clickable headline. But it’s not just hype because there’s some truth to it. Today I want to show this reality with a few visuals, mention three takeaways, and unpack a huge Sacramento market update for those interested. I hope this is helpful – whether you’re local or not.

Tighter Prices: Is the market slowing? How would you show that? Take a look at the rate of price changes in the images below and let me know what you see.

OCTOBER:

PAST 90 DAYS:

ENTIRE YEAR:

TAKEAWAYS:

1) Slowing: Prices are still up, but they’re not up by as much this year. What I mean is in years past we’d regularly see 7-10% price increases when running stats, but over the past few months we’re starting to see 4-6% increases instead. This helps show the market as a whole is slowing.

2) Dull fall & critical thinking: Stats have begun to change more significantly these past few months since a slower feel hit the market. A few months back sales volume dipped, but now after multiple months of lower volume this is becoming a trend (at least for the fall). As we watch this unfold and see that prices are much tighter together as I showed in the charts above, let’s consider two things: 1) Price stats today are more subdued in light of a much duller fall season (duh); and 2) Last year’s fall season ended up being a little more flat than usual, so higher prices from then could be helping this year’s numbers appear a little more depressed. I know, it sounds like I’m trying to soften the idea of the market slowing, but that’s not it at all. I’m thinking critically through the numbers and explaining in part why they are the way they are. Ultimately I find myself interpreting these numbers cautiously, and I think we need to get beyond this fall to see the bigger picture of what the numbers show us and where the trend is going to go.

3) Wide & narrow view: I chose to share stats in three ways on purpose to show something important. Did you notice a difference in the price change depending on how wide or narrow the dates were – whether 30 days, 90 days, or 12 months? Basically the more data we considered, the tighter the price gap was. This is a good reminder to look at the market in different ways to try to discern the trend. It’s also a good reminder to be careful of pulling older data because sometimes that can mask a trend that is happening right now.

The future: Naturally when hearing about momentum slowing in a market it’s easy to start predicting the future as we see price gaps tighten. Many say the market is going to crash, others say it will correct by 10%, and some say it will level off and progress into a state of balance. All three of these ideas have one thing in common. They’re guesses.

I hope that was helpful.

—–——– Big local monthly market update (long on purpose) —–——–

Last year the fall season felt more flat than not, but this year is a different story. We are definitely having more of a dull seasonal lull that reminds us how the market felt in 2014 when the fall season was definitively soft. Here are some of the things I’m watching right now. I’d love to hear what you are seeing. Please comment below or send me an email.

Graphs for your newsletter and social media: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy my post verbatim).

Adjusting to rates: Buyers have seemed to back off the market a bit lately, and we’re seeing the effect of that with lower sales volume. What’s up with this? The culprit could be increasing interest rates and a growing lack of affordability.

Balancing of power: Buyers have gained more power in recent months, though I don’t think sellers got the memo since they are still struggling with overpricing and pretending it’s an aggressive market from 2013 instead of a slower market in 2018. This doesn’t mean buyers have total control though. Keep in mind 41% of all sales last month had multiple offers, which tells us it’s not the type of market where buyers can lowball sellers and get whatever price they want.

Pricing lower this fall: Since the summer the median price has softened by 4% in Sacramento County, 5% in the region, and 7% in Placer County. This doesn’t mean every neighborhood lost 4-7% in value. These are county stats and they don’t translate into every area or price range. Keep in mind it’s normal to see a 5% or so reduction in the median price during a given fall season, but this year it wouldn’t be surprising to see a more pronounced price difference between spring and fall (we’ll see how it pans out).

The story of sales volume: In September volume was down a whopping 16% in the region, and that raised lots of eyebrows to make people wonder if the market was starting to tank. This past month sales volume was not as weak, but it was still down nearly 9% in the region and about 4% in Sacramento County. Over time we need to keep watching this trend to better understand if it’s a sign of a definitive change in the market or if it’s the byproduct of a dull fall season (or both). One thing to remember is despite a few months of gloomy sales volume recently, volume is only down 2% in 2018 in the Sacramento region.

Listings did peak: I’ve been talking about listings looking like they were peaking for the past couple months, and the stats now definitely show listings have crested for the season. This is normal for the time of year as sellers tend to pull back from the market and wait until spring to list. This is why the fall sometimes feels like a market of leftovers since many sellers are waiting until the next year.

Concessions and credits: Buyers have more options today, so they’re tending to ask sellers more often for credits, repairs, and concessions. It would be wise for sellers to listen to buyers and be aware they may need to give something to get the deal done.

I could write more, but let’s get visual instead.

BIG QUESTIONS:

1) How did the market change from last year?

2) How did the market change from September to October?

3) Where are we in relation to peak prices in 2005?

4) What’s happening with sales volume?

SACRAMENTO COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • October volume down 4%
  • 2018 volume down 1% (January to October)
  • Annual volume is down 1.9% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year, but it’s definitely been down over the past 4-5 months.

SACRAMENTO REGION VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • October volume down 8.8%
  • 2018 volume down 2.1% (January to October)
  • Annual volume is down 2.5% (past 12 months)
  • Volume has been strong this year overall, but it’s been down over the past 4-5 months.

PLACER COUNTY VOLUME:

Key Stats:

  • October volume down 20.6%
  • 2018 volume down 4.9% (January to October)
  • Annual volume is down 5.4% (past 12 months)

SACRAMENTO COUNTY (more graphs here):

SACRAMENTO REGION (more graphs here):

PLACER COUNTY (more graphs here):

I hope that was helpful.

DOWNLOAD 60 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs here as a zip file. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim).

Questions: What do you see happening in the market right now? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appraisal, Appraiser, CDOM, days on market, DOM, dull fall season, housig market in Sacramento, lower prices, Placer County housing market, real estate graphs, sacramento housing market, sacramento regional appraisal blog, sacramento regional housing market, slowing market, softening prices

How to use a CMA to gauge the temperature of the real estate market

February 3, 2015 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

Temperature changes all the time. It’s a reality whether we’re talking about a cup of coffee, the weather, or even the real estate market. Today I want to show you one of the ways I use a CMA to take the temperature of a neighborhood real estate market. This helps me communicate well with clients, and I hope it will do the same for you.

Image purchased by sacramento appraisal blog from 123rf dot com - neighborhood market

NOTE: “CMA” stands for “Comparative Market Analysis”, and it’s a tool real estate agents (and others) use to communicate about the market to clients.

Three steps to gauge the market with a CMA:

1) Draw Neighborhood Boundaries:

rosemont neighborhood

All your data is going to come from the boundaries you choose, whether you draw them with a polygon tool in MLS or pick an MLS area (you choose since you are the market expert). I don’t recommend using a radius search because you’ll probably pick up sales from other neighborhoods that could skew the accuracy of what you are trying to present to a client.

2) Run a CMA in your MLS system:

Now run a CMA in MLS so you have access to current listings, pendings, and sales over the past 90 days. The final product may look something like this. I truncated the images below, but you can see the total count of listings and sales in yellow.

Active Listings:

listings in rosemontPendings:

pendings example

Sales over Past 90 Days:

sales example

Compare listings, pendings, and sales: As you can see, actives have been on the market for 103 cumulative days, it took pendings 61 days to get into contract, and recent sales took 49 days to sell. In other words, buyers have been pulling the trigger in about 50-60 days, but at the same time a whole host of homes in the neighborhood are not selling.

BIG POINT: If listings have been on the market for longer than sales, something has changed in the market. Maybe it’s the real estate season, or sellers are trying to “test the market” at higher prices. It could also be that inventory has increased, buyers have become more picky, or maybe current listings consist of different types of homes that take longer to sell. This is key to communicate with clients since clearly some properties are selling and others are definitely not.

3) Figure out Monthly Inventory:

You can quickly figure out monthly housing inventory in the neighborhood. There were 61 sales over the past 90 days, which means the market absorbed about 20 sales per month (61 divided by 3 months = 20.33). Note there are currently 47 active listings. If you want to figure out monthly inventory, all you need to do is divide the number of current listings by the number of sales over the past month. In other words, 47 listings divided by 20.33 sales equals 2.31 months of housing supply.

how to calculate monthly housing inventory

WHAT TO SAY TO CLIENTS: Here is an example of what you might be able to tell clients about this neighborhood:

Right now there are about 2.5 months worth of houses for sale in the neighborhood. This isn’t very many listings, BUT when houses aren’t priced right, they are sitting instead of selling. Most homes are taking 50-60 days to sell, but overpriced homes are literally on the market for over 100 days. These homes will probably sell for even less than they would have had they been priced right from the beginning. 

General Tips:

  1. Don’t make sweeping interpretations because of one CMA.
  2. Be sure you have enough data since few sales can lead to skewed results.
  3. Remember that trends for a larger county or even an entire neighborhood may not reflect trends for the property you’re trying to value. This is why it might also be worthwhile to run a CMA for competitively-sized properties instead of the entire neighborhood.

Keynote Speaker on Friday: By the way, I will be the keynote speaker on February 6 at the Masters Club Roundtables event at the Sacramento Association of Realtors. My 30-minute talk begins at 9am and is called “How to tell the story of the market to your clients”. I’ll focus on unpacking what the market did last year, where it is right now, and how to talk with clients about trends. Swing by if you can.

SAR roundtables

Questions: How do you use a CMA? How else do you gauge the temperature of the market?

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Filed Under: Resources Tagged With: appraiser in Sacramento, CDOM, CMA in real estate, DOM, housing inventory, how to calculate monthly inventory, how to run a CMA, listings taking longer to sell, Sacramento appraiser blog, seeing the neighborhood market

Parenting and watching real estate unfold in Placer County

July 17, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

Being a parent is a bit like being a private investigator. When problems come up, I often get different stories from my kids or neighborhood kids about who said or did what. It’s then my job to listen (hopefully), gather evidence, and then sift through bits of information to maybe uncover the truth. Can you relate? The same thing happens in real estate because you get different stories depending on who you talk to. One person might say, “the market is on fire and values are increasing”, while another says “the ‘bubble’ is about to burst”. This is why it’s important to pay careful attention to trends so we can be informed and offer accurate information to clients. Today let’s take a look at the latest stats for Placer County, and also touch on what is happening in Sacramento’s regional market. I hope this is helpful.

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the highlighted text and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

placer county real estate trends june 2014

PLACER COUNTY:

1) Prices have been flat in Placer County:

Placer County median price and inventory - by home appraiser blog

median price in placer county and sacramento county by sacramento appraisal blog

There was a small seasonal uptick in the Spring in Placer County, but prices have been more or less flat lately, which is in part a byproduct of increasing inventory. The median price in Placer County is $380,000. Prices are more or less flat in Sacramento County too, though the median price is about $100,000 less compared with Placer County. Remember that sales stats show a flat market, but these sales got into contract 30-60 days ago. I bring this up because there is even more inventory in the current market, which is really softening values beyond what mere sales stats might tell us.

2) Housing inventory is increasing:

Placer County housing inventory - by home appraiser blog

months of housing inventory in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

Monthly inventory increased from 2.52 months to 2.76 months between May and June. It’s normal around this time to see an increase of inventory, but this is still important to keep in mind when pricing properties in certain price segments. Less competition tends to cool values. When considering all price segments, the higher the price, the more inventory there is.

3) Houses are taking an average of 37 days to sell:

days on market in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

On average it is taking 37 days to sell a home in Placer County as opposed to 35 days in Sacramento County (minor difference). Generally speaking, the higher the price, the longer it is taking to sell (which is normal). There were only 7 sales above $1M, so take the “10 days” stat with a grain of salt since properties above $1M generally take much longer to sell. Overall it took less days for homes to sell last month compared to previous months, and if the market unfolds like it did last year, expect to see a longer listing period over these next few months.

4) Volume is down by 11.5% from last June:

Placer County sales volume - by sacramento appraisal blog

Sales volume has been down in the entire Sacramento region. Why? In large part it’s a reaction to investors stepping away from the market one year ago. There were 11.5% less sales in June 2014 compared with June 2013. The same trend is showing up in Sacramento County also. The market is simply trying to figure out how to normalize or adjust now that investors have taken their foot off the gas pedal.

5) Listings increased by 6% from last month to this month (normal):

number of listings in PLACER county - june 2014 - by home appraiser blog

Listings increased by 6% from last month to this month. At the beginning of June there were 1303 active listings on the market, and at the beginning of July there were 1387 listings. This isn’t earth-shattering news, but the number of listings is something important to watch because the market tends to soften as there are more listings (assuming the number of sales does not increase).

6) “Layers” to watch over the next two quarters:

interest rates inventory median price in placer county by sacramento appraisal blog

What is driving value in Placer County? Low interest rates and low inventory are two of the bigger “layers of the market” right now. In light of less cash investors playing the market (especially in Sacramento County), local real estate is more sensitive to interest rates and upticks in inventory. Rates are still flirting with the low-to-mid 4s, and that is helping buyers afford higher prices for the time being. Yet it will be interesting to see how the market is able to cope with higher inventory and presumably higher rates in the third and fourth quarter of the year.

THE SACRAMENTO REGION:

7) Inventory is increasing in the Sacramento Region:

months of housing inventory in region by sacramento appraisal blog

number of listings in Placer  Yolo El Dorado Sacramento - by home appraiser blog

Real estate trends are sort of like neighborhoods at times. What happens on one parcel can tend to impact a property next door (even though we’d like to think we live on “parcel islands“). That’s why knowing what is happening in Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, and El Dorado County can help us see where the market as a whole is going. Overall inventory increased from 2.23 months in May 2014 to 2.43 months in June 2014.

8) It’s taking 37 days on average to sell a house in the Sacramento Region:

days on market in placer sac el dorado yolo county by sacramento appraisal blog

Properties are not sitting on the market for very long since 37 days is still fairly quick. However, if they are not priced correctly, they are DEFINITELY sitting. Buyers have been gaining more power in the market, so they can afford to be a bit more picky. My advice to sellers? Remember, the market is no longer as aggressive as it was in 2012 and 2013, so it’s important to price your properties correctly if you want to sell.

9) There are 8% more listings this month in the Sacramento area:

number of listings in Placer Sacramento Yolo El Dorado county - June 2014 - by home appraiser blog

The number of listings jumped by about 8% from last month to this month, while the number of sales stayed about the same. The number of pending sales is actually lower than last month, which shows the market definitely experienced a slow down.

A little wood project: By the way, from time to time I like to share things I build since I enjoy working with wood. This is a porch footstool I built a few weeks ago out of scrap wood. It’s really meant for an adirondack chair, but it’ll still work I think. It’s kind of funky and it can double as a launch ramp for the kids.

porch footstool

Sharing Trends with your Clients? If you want to share graphs online or in your newsletter, please see my sharing policy. Thank you for sharing.

Questions: How else would you describe the market? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: CDOM, DOM, flat real estate market, housing supply, inventory, Median Price, Placer County, Placer County Appraiser, real estate trends, Sacramento Region Real Estate, sales volume, trend graphs

10 quick things to know about Sacramento’s housing market

June 10, 2014 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

Competitive. Normal-ish. Price sensitive. These are all words that describe Sacramento’s housing market right now. Let’s take a look at some of the latest trends so we can better understand and explain how the market is unfolding.

Two ways to read this post:

  1. Scan the highlighted text and graphs quickly.
  2. Grab a cup of coffee and spend a few minutes digesting what is here.

If you want an email with all graphs in this post for free, fill out the form below:

free graphs by sacramento appraisal blog

1) Prices have seen a normal-ish seasonal uptick:

price metrics in sacramento county

The market is showing a fairly normal and steady seasonal uptick in price. Whether you look at median price, average sales price, or average price per sq ft, there has been an increase in recent months. The market has seen about a 4% increase in prices over the past four months, yet at the same time many are describing the market as fairly flat since some neighborhoods are not seeing much of an uptick at all. Remember that just because county-wide stats show a 4% recent increase does not necessarily translate into 4% value increase for each property.

2) Houses are taking about one week longer to sell:

CDOM in Sacramento County - by Sacramento Appraisal Blog From April to May, sales took about one week longer to sell in Sacramento County. In contrast, Placer County and the Region showed very little change in cumulative days on market. Generally speaking, the more expensive the property, the longer it is taking to sell. Overall, the market is price sensitive, which means if properties are not priced correctly, they are sitting. Expect this trend to continue so long as inventory increases in coming months.

3) Inventory increased only slightly from April to May:

median price and inventory since 2008 - by sacramento appraisal blog

Housing inventory increased from 1.80 months to 2.0 months in Sacramento County from April to May 2014. Inventory is still very low, which is making competition aggressive in certain price ranges.

4) Not every price range is showing the same trend:

months of housing inventory by sacramento appraisal blog

number of listings in sacramento - by home appraiser blog

Different price ranges experience different trends. This is clearly seen since inventory isn’t the same at every price level.The market is very competitive under $300,000 right now, but anything above $750,000 is far less competitive. There was little change from last month for properties under $500,000, though above $750K saw some increases. Take the 24 months of inventory above $1,000,000 with a grain of salt since there were only 3 sales in this price range last month, but there are 20 or so pendings right now. Ultimately this million-dollar stat is skewed, but it’s still safe to accurately say there is one year or more worth of houses for sale above $1,000,000 in Sacramento County.

5) Volume is down by 15% from last year, but similar to last month:

sales volume in Sacramento County

Sales volume is down compared to last year, but sales in May were about the same compared to April. In the next few days as more sales are entered into MLS, I suspect sales volume for May will increase beyond volume in April. After a very sluggish start to the year in terms of sales, it’s nice to have two consecutive months of more than 1400 sales. Of course volume is still significantly lower than previous years, and that is something to continue to watch over time.

6) Cash sales have been declining for one year now:

Cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog

Cash sales used to represent closer to 35% of all sales in the county just one year ago, but now they’re only 19.5% of all sales (for April & May 2014). Cash investors were a very significant driver for the market, but now the market is no longer being driven by cash.

7) FHA & conventional sales are both showing increases:

FHA and cash sales in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blog FHA and cash sales since 2009 in Sacramento County by sacramento appraisal blogWhen cash investors took their foot off the gas pedal one year ago, it got much easier for FHA and conventional buyers to get into contract. The market is still very competitive since inventory is low, but owner occupant buyers have much more of a fighting chance these days.

8) Distressed sales continue to be sparse:

REOs and Short Sales in Sacramento County REOs and Short Sales Percentage and Volume in Sacramento County

Both short sales and REOs have decreased dramatically in recent years and are definitely not driving the market. Banks are tending to spend more time and money fixing up their REOs, while short sales are often still priced aggressively low. REOs have shown a slight uptick recently (especially considering the most recent “quarter” is only comprised of two months of sales. This isn’t anything to write home over per se, but something to watch over time to see how it evolves.

9) Interest rates decreased slightly last month:

interest rates by sacramento appraisal blog

Interest rates showed a slight decrease over the past month, and that is something that will help prices be slightly more affordable. In light of massive price increases over the past couple of years, affordability is becoming a challenge for many buyers.

10) “Layers” to watch over the next two quarters:

layers of the market since 2008 sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog

layers of the market since 2001 sacramento county - by sacramento appraisal blog Median price & unemployment in Sacramento County

The real estate market has many “layers” that impact value. Last year the market was heavily influenced by interest rates, cash investors and incredibly low inventory, but things have shifted in 2014. Right now some of the main drivers to watch over these next two quarters are the job market, interest rates, inventory and affordability. Local real estate can no longer be so heavily driven by outside cash investors, which means it will be more sensitive to the health and strength of the local economy. Prices increased over the past two years, but not because people are making more money. How does that strike you?

Summary: Our market has slowed down quite a bit from last year. The market is still competitive, but it is very price sensitive. Real estate is still “hot”, but it is definitely cooler than last year in that days on market has increased, inventory doubled, interest rates are higher than they were, and cash investors are much less of a factor. By the way, I’ll share more Placer County and regional trends in a few days.

Sharing Trends with your Clients? If you want to share graphs online or in your newsletter, please see my sharing policy. Thank you for sharing.

Questions: How else would you describe the market? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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Filed Under: Market Trends, Videos Tagged With: affordability, appraiser in Sacramento, appraisers sacramento, cash investors, CDOM, conventional buyers, distressed sales, FHA buyers, higher prices, housing inventory, increasing prices, interest rates, investment funds, Market Trends, REO sales, rising prices, Sacramento County Real Estate, sales volume, Short Sales, trend graphs

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