Are you taking a vacation this year? It seems like half my Instagram feed is in Hawaii right now. I’m not doing anything that big, but I did get back yesterday from a few days in Santa Cruz and it was just what I needed. Here’s a video of me longboarding…
I guess I’m about a year late and I don’t have cranberry juice. Last day of vacay. Coming home refreshed. pic.twitter.com/ey4VQrSatY
— Ryan Lundquist (@SacAppraiser) June 16, 2021
Big market update: On June 24th 10-11am I’m doing a big market update with SAR to talk through the latest trends. I cannot wait. Sign up here.
Anyway, let’s talk about normalcy.
THE BIG POINT: It’s a good thing for people to find a normal rhythm in life with taking vacations and the kids getting fully back to school. Not only does it feel good to have a more regular rhythm after a pandemic year, but this is a step in the right direction for the housing market also to hopefully feel a bit more normal eventually. The real hope is for sellers to be more comfortable listing their homes, but that could take a while (especially since some would-be sellers are now wondering if there is even something available for them to purchase). Look, the market is still moving at warp speed and we are not close to a normal market. I’m just saying having more normality in life is exactly what we want to see because it’s a step in the right direction.
NORMALCY & SALES VOLUME:
1) A normal year looks like this: In a normal year we typically see the highest number of sales in June, though May and June trade places for top month status each year. This year I wonder if May will be our regional peak, but we’ll see. By the way, here is a free tutorial for how to make this type of graph.
2) It’s been a *normal year of volume so far: It’s been a pretty normal year so far in terms of the number of sales happening. Check out the red line (2021) compared to the green line (an average of seven years). Of course the black line represents 2020 and that was a wild year in so many ways.
* To be fair if we had more listings we’d actually be seeing bigger numbers, so there is an asterisk with saying volume is normal.
Quick note on slowing: At times it’s a struggle for some to talk about the housing market slowing down each year, but the market isn’t the same every month and the green life is definitive proof. And keep in mind volume slowing doesn’t automatically mean prices stop rising.
3) Volume is elevated in two counties: Since the pandemic volume has been up in El Dorado and Placer County. What’s going on? Well, buyers seem to be attracted to larger homes, newer homes, highly-rated schools, and a location a bit further from Downtown (but not too far for a commute).
4) Bonus colorful visuals: Here are some colorful visuals to show what’s been happening between January and May. As you can see sales volume this year looks mostly normal for the entire region and Sacramento County while it’s ahead in Placer and El Dorado. As I alluded to above, it’s remarkable to see a “normal” level with such anemic housing supply.
Thanks for being here.
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Questions: Are you taking any trips this summer? I’d love to hear. What is the market like in the trenches right now?
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Looks like you had fun at Santa Cruz. Can’t wait to leave for Yellowstone and Grand Teton. Counting down the reports to type….
Still seeing very low inventory but decent volume in my markets similar to what you report. The realtor tour starts again today in Yolo and am looking forward to seeing some colleagues in person.
Sounds fun Joe. I’m so glad you get to go away. I can’t wait for a second trip for my family soon. That’s going to be nice to see everyone on tour too. Good for you.
On a side note, one thing I’m watching is days on market among pendings. Things slowed down in May slightly, but so far in June the numbers for pendings are on par with April. As I said, the market is still traveling at warp speed and inventory is sparse. I think we all crave a bit more normalcy in life and even in real estate. That’s for sure.
A little normalcy does feel good! We’re taking a trip to Chicago in a couple of weeks to have a little fun. I’m glad you were able to get some R&R.
Right on. Enjoy your trip. Yes, it does feel good.
Always coming up with cool new ways to display data. Interesting. Don’t forget your helmet. A cracked skull would not be good for the Sacramento Appraisal Blog.
Good catch. Broken skull = broken blog (thanks actually as I should buy a helmet).
Looks like you had a great vacation. We just came back from one ourselves. It was refreshing and much needed after the past year. Great stats and charts!
It was so good. Now I’m looking forward to the next mini trip coming soon. Glad to hear you had some time away. Good for you.
Hi Ryan,
I think we all can relate to “getting away” for a change of scenery. It’s been a tough year.
Think I should get away to the coast while I can.
I enjoy your blog and the perspective it gives me.
– Linda
This year has had so many challenges and stresses. That’s for certain. Linda, I hope you get to the beach soon. Make it happen. Even if it’s just for a day, I hope you get there. Thanks for the kind words.